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* From today’s Chicago Tribune endorsements…
20th District: If you want to send another Michael Madigan “Mini-Me” to Springfield, then vote for Merry Marwig, the Democratic candidate in this Northwest Side/suburban district who is following the Madigan playbook. She’s accepting thousands of dollars from Madigan’s campaign funds. She’s attacking her opponent, Rep. Michael McAuliffe, R-Chicago, with untruthful mail pieces. And she’s lying low, rarely speaking publicly or answering questions. McAuliffe is the only Republican in the House who represents part of Chicago. You want even more one-party, draconian rule in Springfield? Then vote for the “Mini-Me.” We’re endorsing McAuliffe.
* The Question: On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest, how much impact will “the Speaker Madigan issue” have on House races this November? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:39 pm
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The impact will depend on where the race is. I hear it is having a pretty back affect on the other Mike Madigan’s race.
Comment by burbanite Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:43 pm
The national race is causing many more of us than usual to consider bad choices…past and present.
Comment by HGSFR Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:44 pm
In the collars, he’s toxic. Huge impact in the races I’m following.
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:47 pm
I voted 2. I might have gone up to 2.5, but that’s the limit. For many of these House races, the Madigan card has been played already and hasn’t worked. “Fire Madigan” anyone?
Sure, there is a lot more money behind it this year, as well as the entire print and on-line editions of the Chicago Tribune and everything IPI can gin up, including it’s very own version of Spinal Tap Madigan. But I still think they are treating the voters as dummies who can’t make principled decisions regardless of their feelings about Madigan’s tenure.
The fact is, a lot of voters are going to be very disappointed to get to the polls only to discover that they can’t vote against Madigan.
Except in Champaign, of course. Heh.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:48 pm
=In the collars, he’s toxic. Huge impact in the races I’m following.=
Which will be neutralized by the no effect in the City and SW Cook County burbs. Voted a ‘3′.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:49 pm
I still think more than a few voters are going to walk in the booth and be surprised when don’t see the name Mike Madigan on their ballots.
Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:49 pm
In my collar county district, most people have already tuned out the “Madigan puppet” vs. “Rauner puppet” mailers and ads.
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:50 pm
Look, let’s be honest here. The only legitimate way to “get” Speaker Madigan is for his own constituents to remove him from office by offering up a better candidate. However, the voters in that district seem pretty happy with his performance. It is highly unlikely that voters statewide will oust their own State Representative just to “get” Madigan. Most voters believe their own Representative is doing a good job…it’s the other guy’s Representative who’s the problem child. Republicans have never fielded a strong candidate against Madigan, and until they do or use some artificial guise like term limits, Mr. Madigan will be in office until he decides otherwise.
Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:50 pm
“She’s accepting thousands of dollars from Madigan’s campaign funds…”
How can TRONC print stuff like this without their heads exploding from the sheer outrageous hypocrisy of it?
Comment by IllinoisBoi Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:50 pm
Voted 2. To the degree that it can stick it may have some impact, but not everywhere as all politics are local. Then there’s the hypocrisy of a “Madigan and the politicians he controls” message coming from “Rauner and the large piles of cash he controls”.
Comment by AC Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:51 pm
I voted 3 because I think the effect will be greater than in some past years, if for no other reason than the intensity of the money behind it, but it won’t be as great as Rauner’s team has hoped.
However, this really stands out:
Is this from a parody account? No one has been a bigger beneficiary of money from the bosses as McAuliffe and Marwig has actually had relatively little, many other Democratic House candidates are getting much more. McAuliffe has received $1.5 million from the bosses, he’s been on broadcast TV since before Labor Day, this race is literally the worst example the Trib could have used to try to make this point.
Some days I wonder if Dan Proft reads the Trib’s op-eds and thinks to himself “man, even I wouldn’t go that far.”
Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:52 pm
By the way, I voted #2. Sorry.
Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:52 pm
A “solid 3″
“Why?”
I think 2 is too low… and 4 is too high…
The micro and the failures of “Fire Madigan” in those micros should make me go with 2…. “However… ”
You spend $20 plus million of your own dole on races to push “Fire Madigan” when in the micro Raunerites want state universities closed, and Social Services destroyed… how can that type of spending not be a 4… except for tat hurting of 1 in 13 Illinoisans… “So… ”
It’s a “3″, for me, yippee.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:55 pm
=In the collars, he’s toxic. Huge impact in the races I’m following.=
Which will be neutralized by the no effect in the City and SW Cook County burbs. Voted a ‘3′.
Those seats are already held by D incumbents with little opposition. Few exceptions however including Cloonen. In a tight race like hers a close connection to Madigan isn’t helping her I assure you. Polling says she’s in trouble and Madigan unfavs indicate that is where a big chunk of the drag is coming from. That equals a huge impact because it will led to seats flipping IMHO.
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:55 pm
I voted ‘2′. I think it will have a small amount of impact, but people already hate Madigan. I also think Rauner’s unpopularity hurts the Madigan message.
Comment by Earnest Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:56 pm
I vote a 1. Those attacks carry far more weight with the informed, who are not likely to be swayed from their pre-existing preference. To those who don’t State politics so closely, this year, in that district? It’s D down the ticket.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:57 pm
Madigan’s toxicity is now an issue, after decades of being ignored, for one reason: The Governor’s money makes it visible to voters now.
And it is a huge issue simply because Madigan is the least popular politician in the State (and yes, that includes an unpopular Governor).
Therefore, I gave it a “5.”
Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:58 pm
Voted 2.
I think we would all be stunned to discover that many people have no idea who this Mike Madigan person is and probably wonder why he is in so many commercials.,,if they even noticed the commercials.
Other people, who are more politically aware, realize he has a ton of power but realize they are not voting for him and only his small constituent base vote for him.
I tend to think this is becoming the year of opposites and if you’re typically Dem, you’ll be more Dem than usual and if you’re GOP, you’re going to stick to your guns too. This is causing a lot of discord among us which is so unfortunate.
This Marwig ad makes me so mad. There are people calling Trump a genius for losing almost $1B and doing the write-offs. Yet, Merry Marwig is some nefarious scammer for protesting her property taxes…this is completely tangible and many people do it all of the time.
What a crazy mixed up world?
Comment by Belle Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 3:59 pm
I have no idea how to rate this 1 to 5, but in my opinion, without the Mike Madigan issue, McAuliffe would be toast.
Comment by Anonymouth Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:03 pm
===a close connection to Madigan isn’t helping her I assure you.===
You can assure me with a fact, thanks.
===Therefore, I gave it a “5.”===
Then I’m sure Rauner will win seat after seat after seat, at unprecedented levels….
… I mean, a “5″ is really, really toxic.
House Democrats, brace yourself. The landslide of Madigan’s toxicity will lead… to Speaker Durkin… at a “5″
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:03 pm
They refer to the 10th district (on the West side of Chicago) as being “gerrymandered” for a Democrat. I have no words.
Comment by Name/Nickname/Anon Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:04 pm
I voted huge. I truly believe that Speaker Madigan’s influence will be in play in many districts. Rauner will play big in the 20th and 99th House Districts, but I think MJM will be an albatross in the others.
Commonsense - you are correct BUT the goal is not to remove him from office. The goal is to remove him from his role as Speaker and make him Minority Leader.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:05 pm
I think it depends how far south you go in Illinois. In the Cook and collar county areas, I just don’t think it hits that will. If it’s down in Forby or Bradley’s district though, it could play to the GOP’s favor.
Comment by The Muse Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:06 pm
“Draconian”?
On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest, how much impact will Webster’s Third International Dictionary have on Tribune editorials this November?
Comment by Jimmy Jazz Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:07 pm
–You want even more one-party, draconian rule in Springfield? –
Draconian? Like from Draco? Severe and cruel? That’s what that word means.
If you’re a tronclodyte, I guess it’s the same as asserting that the 90% of American voters who will cast a ballot for Clinton or Trump are “outside the mainstream.”
90 percent, outside the “mainstream.” As opposed to the troncs’ candidate, Stony Johnson, who might get 5% of the vote as the “mainstream” candidate.
So what do you think? Do the troncs spend their days in desperation, drinking, crying and sending out resumes?
Because what they publish shows no logic or writing craftsmanship, and generally makes no sense at all.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:09 pm
When your best offensive effort is consistently ‘It’s Madigan’ and not that you have a better candidates or better ideas, you will get what you have.. a long list of lesser candidates. What was the name of that state cop who ran against McCann? Without Rauner’s money what do the Repubs actually have: a fairly weak bench.
Comment by zatoichi Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:12 pm
To me, a “5″ means it flips the House, and a “1″ means that the D’s actually gain a few seats in an environment where he is the bad guy. Looking at where I think everything is going to end up, I’d say somewhere between a “2″ and a “3″.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:13 pm
Second attempt -
Once again, from a downstate area not being impacted by the “Madigan issue”.
Friends who live in targeted GA districts that are awash in Rauner/Proft campaign funds tell me that the impact is not unnoticed. Yet, they tell me, the “locals” know and have confidence in their current representatives and feel that they will prevail against the Millions being spent to taint their efforts on behalf of their constituents.
Comment by illini Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:15 pm
A 5 is a House flip and a 1 is D’s gaining seats in a toxic environment for their House leader. I voted 3. Lots of noise, little change.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:18 pm
===a close connection to Madigan isn’t helping her I assure you.===
To which OW said…
“You can assure me with a fact, thanks.”
OW, you can pay for your own polls in whatever district you want. I also believe you are a subscriber to this blog and that would allow you access to some of the polling that Rich has shared about the Speaker. The mans numbers indicate he isn’t well liked. AT. ALL. Raunerbucks are relentlessly hammering that. Something that didn’t happen in firemadigan 1.0. Firemadigan 2.0 is a whole new vastly upgraded beast. Therefore I stand with the vote of huge impact.
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:18 pm
I voted 5, just as I would have voted 5 if you’d asked about the “Rauner Effect.” Illinois voters know a proxy war when they see one. Our age of innocence is over.
Comment by Dome Gnome Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:20 pm
@zatoichi - “Without Rauner’s money what do the Repubs actually have: a fairly weak bench.”
Exactly right. Not to mention that if any of those on the second/third string should happen to win, that they will be nothing more than puppets doing the bidding of their Master.
Comment by illini Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:20 pm
I voted 2
In prior cycles, I would’ve voted 1. I bumped it up this year because of the money being put behind it and the fact that it may resonate in a few districts, but I don’t think it will be many. Most places, I think it’ll be balanced out by Rauner negatives.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:25 pm
Physically speaking, MJM is not a big guy, how mini would his “mini-me” be?
Comment by Henry Francis Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:26 pm
- Big Muddy -
In the micro district(s), including but not limited to that district, are you ignoring the Trump factor, which is where I was going?
Could Trump be helping and not hurting, and while “Fire Madigan” is in a mix of things, could Trump numbers be a carry there?
Just askin’
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:26 pm
I continue to be surprised the Tribune still exists.
Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:31 pm
I voted 3. In conjunction with Trump mobilizing new voters downstate and a ton of money, I think Madigan might lose his nominal supermajority. Wth the Democrats still unable to override vetoes without Republican help, the blockage continues.
My focus is on the State Senate. Can Cullerton get to 40 votes?
Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:46 pm
Insider baseball - The average voter, and the below average voter, REALLY does not know or care about Mike Madigan or anyone he controls.
Comment by SPISoccerMomToo Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:47 pm
Voted 3 The issue with Madigan continues to be the perception by many in this state that too few voters (basically those in his district) have an undue effect on his keeping his powerful position in state government. Voters know that any governor can be made gone in the next statewide election. But Madigan is seemingly eternal and the average voter (of either party) who would prefer a change in House leadership can’t do much about it. Not sure this angst is at the boiling point for Madigan yet, but it is seemingly picking up steam in the minds of more and more voters who are worried about the trajectory of this state. It may impact a few of the House races this year.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 4:57 pm
It will resonate in areas already voting the other way. It will backfire in districts leaning toward his allies.
Comment by titan Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 5:03 pm
In gave it a 2. I agree with Commonsense above - traditionally people love their representative, and that’s why incumbents are re-elected most of the time. Term limits are great until “my” representative is affected (BTW, why is there a term limits ad still running in light of the ISC decision? I know, I know…) And even if you don’t like Madigan, his is not the name on most ballots. I think “change” is the biggest motivating factor against incumbency, and that can affect both parties.
Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 5:55 pm
Voted 2 only because it’s gotta be higher impact than a Trib editorial.
Will be hard to gauge from seats won/lost this time, because of so many other countervailing forces. 2018 will be telling race.
Comment by walker Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 5:55 pm
Republicans have recycled this campaign tactic every cycle since I was a boy and it hasn’t worked yet. Maybe they should try finding their way out of the woods rather than trying to convince the voters to join them in the dark.
Comment by Harvest76 Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 5:56 pm
Fact, Madigan has negotiated with both D & R Governors.
With Rauner, the voting public doesn’t mind people with money running for political office. People do resent their money being used to influence politics to the extent it has reached under Ruaner.
Rauner purchased the governor’s office hoping to be in the White House, as VP or Pres. Ain’t gonna happen. This is the last of his political endeavors, people will never put him back in office. He’s Quinned!
Comment by Tinsel Town Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 6:04 pm
Voted 3. Considering this presidential cycle, I think more voters are paying more attention to the national race(s) rather than their own local race and will vote how they normally will.
Then again, if every seat was contested that was up this cycle, I would’ve voted a 4 because “Madigan vs. Rauner” would be in our faces more than usual
Comment by Clark Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 6:32 pm
Voted 2. Based on the ads I’ve seen, they’re too poorly produced and generic to have much impact. We’ve seen this movie before, and it’s strictly a B movie. There’s so much money behind the ads, I bumped it up from 1 to 2, but I think they’re just clutter.
Comment by olddog Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 6:48 pm
I voted a 2 but really a 1.5 is more like it. People outside one district in Chicago can’t vote for or against Madigan. Some voters will search for Madigan on the ballot in order to vote against him, find they can’t, then move on to the next office on the ballot.
Most people are pretty happy with their local reps and senators. They walk the neighborhoods and ask for your vote.
Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 7:50 pm
5
Madigan is toxic. In this district she looks like a loser today -
Comment by cannon649 Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 7:57 pm
middle vote. depends on the race. and the Madigan candidate. If the candidate looks parachuted in, has a short tenure in the district, and is a not nice person, then there’s more icky stick. perhaps with this race.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 8:32 pm
The ads have made a lot of people more familiar and disgusted with Mike Madigan. Actually, I should say it sounds more like borderline hatred. However, I don’t think these people are transferring that vitriol to individual candidates. I give it a 2.
As to this race, McAuliffe is the prohibitive favorite. Marwig is still playing catch up but she’s doing way better than I anticipated after the primary. I think it has more to do with McAuliffe’s popularity than Marwig being tied to Madigan.
Comment by Original Rambler Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 8:50 pm
I voted 3. I was at 2.5, but the latest increase in his inseam gave me no choice.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 9:32 pm
Voted 4. Madigan is seen as a bad guy in my area. FWIW I think folks felt that same way about Cross. Lol.
Comment by Touré's Latte Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 10:29 pm
3. Every once in a while I’ll hear Democrats at the doors who are fed up with Madigan but I’m not sure they’ll betray their values and vote for the Republican at the end of the day. But with all this money going toward the anti-Madigan messaging, who knows anymore?
Comment by RoPo Ranger Monday, Oct 3, 16 @ 11:17 pm
Every single mailer I have gotten from the Republican Party has a pro-their candidate side and a negative side that mentions both their opponent by name and pictures them with Madigan.
The Illinois GOP has done more to help with name recognition of their opponents in my area than the Democrats have. To what end will the negative matter? I don’t know, but I think the first couple dozen mailers (and it looks like I’m going to get 2 or 3 a day for the next month or so) haven’t been really impacting and they’re all basically the same.
My favorite, of course, are the ones claiming they’re an independent voice that will stand up against their own party — on a mail piece paid for by their party.
And when they use the same format for every mailer, so I get effectively identical mailers from the State House and State Senate Candidates that claim they’re both independent voices.
I don’t think their messaging is going to be as effective as they apparently think it is, and their message hasn’t changed a single bit. It’s either lazy work or they’ve just passionately decided that the only issue they can persuade someone not to support their opponent with is Madigan.
More and more it looks like someone is just cashing a check to do sloppy work. I’m a registered voter with only D primary voting history and so far as I can tell they haven’t sent me a single piece that might have been intended for someone with that back ground.
It’s like they’re trying to dictate rather than persuade.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:20 am
“On a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the greatest, how much impact will ‘the Speaker Madigan issue’ have on House races this November?”
I vote ‘2′ — it’s a very, very big deal to people who would never cast a vote for a Democratic candidate anyway.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:44 pm