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Voting Green to help Rauner?

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Illinois

* Phillip O’Connor, a former Republican member of the Illinois State Board of Elections and former chairman of the Illinois Commerce Commission under Jim Thompson plans to vote for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein in order to help Gov. Bruce Rauner…

If Stein receives 5 percent or more of the presidential vote in Illinois on Nov. 8, then the Green Party will qualify as an “established political party,” making it eligible to place a full slate of candidates on the 2018 statewide ballot. A Green Party candidate for governor in 2018 will attract several percentage points of the total vote — most of it coming at the expense of the Democratic nominee.

In 2014, Rauner defeated incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn by less than 5 percent of the vote. At the same time, the Libertarian gubernatorial candidate garnered more than 3 percent, much of it coming from voters who might otherwise have voted for Rauner.

The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, propelled by a thoughtful endorsement from the Chicago Tribune, will almost certainly exceed that 5 percent threshold in Illinois, guaranteeing a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in 2018. […]

Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor. Even those who do not agree with his positions ought to concede that Illinois should no longer go on as a one-party state. We should not return to the time when the only meaningful policy debates are within the Democratic Party, with one group of Democrats arguing for more taxes and spending while the other faction argues for even more taxes and spending. […]

So, I will make my vote count now for Gov. Rauner in 2018 by voting for the Green Party presidential candidate this year.

Back in 2006, Green Party gubernatorial candidate Rich Whitney got over 10 percent of the vote, but Democrat Rod Blagojevich still beat his GOP opponent by 10 points. That was a darned good year for Democrats, however.

Third party candidates do tend to take evenly from both sides, but don’t tell that to Al Gore.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:58 am

Comments

I don’t think even with GOP help that Stein will get to even 5%. There is no way the GREEN party could ever mount a successful Gubernatorial campaign. Love of God, they can’t even get a newsletter out with reliability. If I were Rauner I wouldn’t put a lot of eggs into this basket.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 6:46 am
===Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor.===

Tension is an interesting word for the blackmailing gridlock that Rauner has brought while destroying Public Universities and Social Services for the state’s most vulnerable.

I long for the Status Quo Ante Rauner. Then things were bad, but getting slowly better. Now, Rauner has brought change, but by any measure, as Crain’s puts it, that change has left Illinois is much worse off.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 6:57 am
===Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor.===

Tension? Rauner has brought nothing but chaos through his scheme to leverage higher education and social services in an attempt to achieve his unpassable union-busting agenda.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:02 am
Apparently Black-mail is a banned, but ever so appropriate word.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:04 am
Yes, they usually do take evenly, but I’m going to guess that Nader took at least 537 more from Gore.

Comment by TheDude Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:12 am
And Jill Stein would have to do 10 times better than she did in Illinois in 2012 to achieve O’Conner’s wet dream of 5%, by the way. How do you say…not likely.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:12 am
>Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor. Even those who do not agree with his positions ought to concede that Illinois should no longer go on as a one-party state.

I can disagree. Financially Illinois was more responsible under Pat Quinn, who was a terrible governor but deserves credit for making some hard financial choices.

I can agree from the standpoint that it would be a nightmare to have Rauner control two branches of Illinois government.

I can agree that Illinois would be well-served to have a Republican Governor (as opposed to Raunerite).

Honeybear, is a non-anti-union Republican opponent for Rauner at all contemplated for 2018? Just curious–clearly there are a lot of Republican union members, though they do seem outnumbered overall by Democrats.

Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:31 am
Let’s see if I got this right…the friend of my enemy of my friend of my enemy of my friend of….aaaaah, fuggedaboutit.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 7:57 am
Rauner’s biggest issue now and in 2018 is Trump. Trump wins, Trump loses — doesn’t matter.

Rauner in his background and thinking has more than a whiff of Trump — I’d say a downright stank — and voters won’t forget what’s going on now.

My advice to Rauner — start governing, stop campaigning, and hope you can pull off some legitimate wins between now and the start of the 2018 campaign season.

Oh, and forcing AFSCME on strike is not a “win” — not in Illinois.

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:09 am
As a disaffected Republican I agree completely. Gore 2000 is an example, but here look at 2010 and Lex Green, he very well could have cost Bill Brady the governorship. The parties (both) spend a fair amount of resources trying to kick the Greens and Libertarians off the ballot. Plus, since IL isn’t in play I can see lots of Bernie folks voting Green to show displeasure with Hillary. For 2018 Rauner’s gonna need every vote he can get why not try and hedge this bet?

Comment by Greatplainser Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:40 am
On merit I can’t vote for any of them, and the only good part is since I live in Illinois, I don’t have to.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 8:42 am
“What is this com-pe-ti-tion you speak of?” inquires the public sector.

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:16 am
Honeybear - maybe not but Rich Whitney got 10% in 2006 and (in my opinion) did very little in the way of actual campaign. He basically visited newspapers and used pre-Facebook word of mouth.

I can certainly see both Gary Johnson and Jill Stein breaking the 5% barrier in Illinois.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:16 am
LOL, yeah, that “political tension” is doing wonders for the state’s fiscal position and the fulfillment of core state responsibilities.

Where the heck did the troncs dig up O’Connor, anyway? Wasn’t he part of the bad ‘ol days of that rino Big Jim?

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:21 am
===Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor.===

That’s adorable.

Next time say it’s to help “taxpayers” so I can justify my snickering at you.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:22 am
==There is no way the GREEN party could ever mount a successful Gubernatorial campaign. ==

That depends on how you define “successful”

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:23 am
I always said that the weirdos vote Green.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:25 am
what do we think we are, Utah? (currently polling Clinton Trump equal, and others not far behind)

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:27 am
I volunteered for both Obama campaigns, but you couldn’t pay me to get in a room with HRC (I’m definitely NOT with her!). After the Dem convention in July, I called the chair of the local Green party (very small group) to volunteer to lead a door-knocking group for Jill Stein, thinking that the operation could partner with the college Greens. “Let me discuss with the group, and I’ll get back to you”, he says.

3 weeks later I hear there ” is not positive energy in the activist community for this activity. ”

While I know that the local Green party tends to be dominated by a group age 55+, but dagnab it, you’ve got 2 major party candidates with 50% or higher unfavorables. If you’ve got younger volunteers willing to do some work, why wouldn’t you take advantage of the opportunity and run up the margins for your candidate, with the longer-term goal of improving your ballot access? Do you desire to be an effective political party, or do you just want to fool around as a protest vote? (And yes, I know the local Greens have a lot of members who value purity over effectiveness.)

(The local Greens apparently have been approached by several volunteers, but if you don’t find a way to include these folks, what are the odds they’ll stick around?)

Comment by Lynn S. Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 9:45 am
–Honeybear - maybe not but Rich Whitney got 10% in 2006 and (in my opinion) did very little in the way of actual campaign.–

So as a political learner here, what do you attribute the Whitney success too? I just know first hand how disorganized they are.

Was it an anti Blago vote? That’s what I’m thinking. What do you think TS?

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:12 am
O’Connor can do whatever he wants. The key is always that those who want do defeat Rauner have to do it right. They have to vote for candidates who can actually win, and not be “puritopians” who want to vote for someone who can’t possibly win, just to break the system like Rauner and his super-rich supporters are doing in their own ways.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:15 am
–Honeybear, is a non-anti-union Republican opponent for Rauner at all contemplated for 2018? Just curious–clearly there are a lot of Republican union members, though they do seem outnumbered overall by Democrats.–

Earnest, I haven’t the slightest idea. I’m just a union member, not an officer or in the know. Council 31 is tight lipped about stuff. In reflecting on your question though, I don’t think there are many pro labor Republicans left. Things are so bifurcated right now. It’s like that old labor song, “Which side are you on?” that Pete Seeger sings. Compromise and middle ground seems to be long gone.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:21 am
Rich, I cannot figure out why you want to vote for the Green Party to help Rauner. I must have missed something here.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:25 am
HB - my personal belief is that it was a combo of three things:

1. Bush was extremely unpopular in Illinois during his second mid-term election. Roskam was elected over Duckworth and Kirk was reelected but every other other serious GOP candidate lost.

2. Blago was disliked enough to garner a decent protest vote - even for an attorney from Carbondale who did very little.

3. Blago spent enough (in pre-Rauner standards) against JBT that he damaged the otherwise great JBT brand. I think some of Whitney’s votes came from people who saw the ads but could not vote for Blago.

In the future I could see a Bloomberg type running statewide as an independent and getting elected. Most of the third party efforts (Whitney’s included) have been lackluster and, at times, seem more like an attempt to play spoiler or set up some sort of a protest vote system. If our two major party presidential candidates were not so off-putting then Gary Johnson would not be polling so close to 10%.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:27 am
Rauner seems to be more in line with The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson than the Green party presidential candidate Jill Stein.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:28 am
For some reason, Rich Whitney got over 20% of the 2006 vote in the Rockford area, which helped his statewide total a lot. I’d guess he was popular in college towns and as a protest vote elsewhere. Among his quirks was his favoring “open carry” handguns, which was at odds with some of the other Green positions.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:36 am
===Illinois needs the sort of political tension that Rauner has brought as governor.===

Illinois does not need political tension! We need a better person to become the IL governor and lead the state up not down.

Comment by Mama Time- out Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:40 am
The more people on the ballot, the happier Rauner is. He won the Republican primary because Dillard and Brady split the traditional Republican vote (also because he disguised his agenda).
In 2018, dividing the protest vote helps Rauner.

In 2016, with great reluctance, I am voting for HRC. Do not want to strengthen the minor parties this next cycle and do not trust the polls in this election.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:41 am
- Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:41 am: =

Last Bull Moose, now I get it. For the love of God, I hope we don’t end up with 4 parties on the ticket in 2018. If Rauner cannot win in 2018 on what he has done the pass 4 years, he needs step down.

Comment by Mama's Time- out Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:55 am
Six - yeah, that was weird. I remember closely watching the Rockford returns and that was a real head scratcher. Whitney did very well in public university counties. He outperformed his statewide percentage in every county with a large public university: he scored 17% in Champaign County; 18.3% in DeKalb County; 14.2% in Coles County; 13.3% in McDonough County; and 25% in Jackson County (which is not surprising but still excellent).

Moose - hence why Rauner is hoping for a fractured Dem primary in March 2018.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 10:57 am
Am I missing something … 10 ILCS 5/10-2 provides that “A political party which, at the last general election for State and county officers, polled for its candidate for Governor more than 5% of the entire vote cast for Governor, is hereby declared to be an “established political party” as to the State and as to any district or political subdivision thereof.” How does voting for a Green Party presidential candidate establish that party for governor?

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:03 am
“Blago spent enough (in pre-Rauner standards) against JBT that he damaged the otherwise great JBT brand.”

And Judy’s hints about bringing back executions — coupled with her choice of Joe Birkett as running-mate — was too much for some (many?) Democrats who’d previously cast ballots for her.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:39 am
===And Judy’s hints about bringing back executions===

If that’s why you didn’t vote for her you got played. The attorney general sets execution dates. Lisa refused to do it.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:40 am
-Anon 11:03 am:
10 ILCS 5/7-2 “A political party, which at the general election for State and county officers then next preceding a primary, polled more than 5 per cent of the entire vote cast in the State, is hereby declared to be a political party within the State, and shall nominate all candidates provided for in this Article 7 under the provisions hereof, and shall elect precinct, township, ward and State central committeemen as herein provided.”

That section covers regular nominations and isn’t limited to the vote for Governor.

Comment by muon Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:02 pm
MrJM - your concern about JBT’s running mate makes sense, but is that really a good enough reason (especially in Illinois where the lite guv does little-to-nothing) to sway several percentage points of voters?

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:33 pm
Given her placement in the “Jill Stein / Pat Buchanan” wing of US foreign policy, no way am I voting for Stein. She is a walking disaster.

Comment by Bob Crane Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:36 pm
===I remember closely watching the Rockford returns and that was a real head scratcher.===

Check out this endorsement from ‘06.
http://www.wrex.com/story/8423509/rockford-register-star-endorses-whitney-for-governor

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:00 pm
“If that’s why you didn’t vote for her you got played.”

Played by who? By Judy?

When she announced Birkett as her running-mate, the Tribune reported, “With the pro-death penalty prosecutor at her side, Topinka said she would lift the moratorium on executions that was enacted by former Gov. George Ryan and continued by Gov. Rod Blagojevich.” http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2005-12-16/news/0512160280_1_lieutenant-governor-civil-unions-judy-baar-topinka

And over at the Sun-Times, Dave McKinney and Dan Rozek reported the same thing under the headline, “As governor, she’d lift ban on executions, Topinka says.” [no link because the Sun-Times trashed its online archives]

If maintaining the moratorium on executions as a step towards abolition of the death penalty wasn’t a priority issue to you, that’s fine. Whatever. But it was a priority to me. And, in light of the candidate’s unambiguous statements on that issue, I v̶o̶t̶e̶d̶ behaved accordingly.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:22 pm
JBT needed a running mate capable of beating Steve Rauschenberger in the Lt Gov primary that year (he was Gidwitz’s running mate but they ran separately per the rules back then). Not many people had the name ID and such to do that back then (I doubt Jim Edgar wanted to run for Lt Gov).

Comment by Fusion Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:35 pm
O’Connor: “The Libertarian presidential candidate, Gary Johnson, propelled by a thoughtful endorsement from the Chicago Tribune, will almost certainly exceed that 5 percent threshold in Illinois, guaranteeing a Libertarian gubernatorial candidate in 2018.”

Last Bull Moose: “The more people on the ballot, the happier Rauner is. *** In 2018, dividing the protest vote helps Rauner.”

Rich: “Third party candidates do tend to take evenly from both sides”

And the rationale behind the Tribune’s bizarre presidential endorsement is laid bare.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:43 pm
Despite such a move a Green Party candidate will make very little difference in helping Rauner.

This is a Blue state and Rauner won because people were really sick and tired of the Blago/Quinn continuation.

The DEMS will have to run an extraordinarily flawed candidate for Rauner to win this next time.

Comment by Federalist Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:11 pm
Federalist. I take to heart Rich’s comments about how hard it is to defeat an incumbent Governor.

And I have seen the Democrats nominate deeply flawed candidates for statewide offices.

Also, 2018 is a long time from now. AFSCME may be broken by then.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:27 pm
“The DEMS will have to run an extraordinarily flawed candidate for Rauner to win this next time.”

So, you’re putting Rauner’s chances at 50/50?

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:36 pm
–MrJM - your concern about JBT’s running mate makes sense, but is that really a good enough reason (especially in Illinois where the lite guv does little-to-nothing) to sway several percentage points of voters?–

I voted for Whitney. I don’t think I agreed with him on much of anything, that I can recall.

It was the act of a stupid, petulant child (although I was no child at the time, just stupid and petulant).

I had an extended tantrum about a “pox on both their houses” because of Blago/Ryan corruption and frittered away my JBT vote.

I’ll always be ashamed and embarrassed that I didn’t vote for JBT, because she had a puncher’s chance to beat Blago and deserved my vote in her own right.

I failed, but I’ll never forget, and I’ve learned.

Vote Clinton.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:54 pm