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* UPDATED x1 * Drilling down into the impasse impact

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* Back to that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Most Illinois voters say the state budget stalemate is not having an impact on their lives, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]

The survey of 1000 registered voters was taken Sept. 27-Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three point one percentage points.

Of the total sample, 34 percent said they were personally affected by the crisis while 62 percent were unaffected. Those opinions have varied little during the past year.

Dr. Linda Baker, university professor at the Institute, said “Illinoisans are aware that the budget crisis is no longer an abstract question, but instead something that is growing in significance and having an effect on the state’s ability to attract and retain businesses and residents.”

“One hopeful finding is the increased percentage of Illinoisans who see the solution as a mix of both budget cuts and increasing revenues. Hopefully this can help spur policymakers on both sides of the aisle to consider a compromise that includes solutions offered by both parties,” she said.

David Yepsen, director of the Institute, said “I’m surprised more people aren’t feeling affected by this deadlock in Springfield. I thought the numbers of people impacted would be increasing as it wore on but it’s also true many people aren’t impacted by changes in government services.”

Among those who saw an impact on their own lives, the largest group - at 18 percent - saw the budget stalemate as the cause of their job loss or threat of loss. Another 15 percent saw it as the cause of cuts to general social services and 14 percent perceived it as the source of cuts to K-12 education funding.

* The actual question…

Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?

Social Services 47.8%

Social services (generally) 14.7%
K-12 education 13.9%
Mental health care 6.5%
Child care costs/services 5.9%
Higher education (including MAP grants) 5.6%
Drug treatment costs/services 1.2%

Economic (job, housing, etc.) 31.0%

Job lost/threatened 18.3 %
Economy (generally) 8.3%
Housing (affordability/quality) 3.2%
Utility assistance program cuts (home heat, air, etc.) 1.2%

Local government/area 10.7%

Local economy 4.7%
City government cuts 2.4%
Highway and road construction/maintenance 2.1%
Facility closure 1.5%

Other 4.4%
Don’t know 6.2%

So, let’s count “you or someone in your immediate family” as households. There are 4.6 million households in Illinois, or about 39,000 in each of the 118 state House districts.

That means, with this particular interpretation (which isn’t quite accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes here), over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something.

* Also, 7,000 households in each House district contained someone who either lost their job or has been threatened by job loss due to the impasse? That’s huge. It probably doesn’t line up with reality, but the perception is gigantic and legislators should beware.

And speaking of not lining up with reality, 14 percent think K-12 funding has been cut, which isn’t the case, but that’s what they think.

*** UPDATE *** Press release…

John Bouman, President of the Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law and Chair of the Responsible Budget Coalition’s Executive Committee, today released the following statement regarding a new Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll measuring opinions on the state budget stalemate in Illinois:

“34 percent of respondents said they were personally affected by the budget crisis. The poll confirms what the Responsible Budget Coalition’s network of advocates and providers already know - over one million people have already been hurt by the loss of jobs and services because of Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget. Millions more are threatened as the impasse continues.

In the wake of the stopgap budget Band-Aid, news stories about budget impasse have dropped from the front pages. That doesn’t cover the fact that real people and businesses continue to be negatively impacted by the direct and indirect costs of the collective failure to produce a real budget.

These numbers should get the attention of lawmakers who have turned their eyes away from Springfield in favor of a focus on elections. The effects of inaction are felt by voters in every legislative district. While the poll clearly shows that voters favor differing approaches to resolving the crisis, they all want it solved responsibly and quickly.”

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:17 am

Comments

If the strategy is to use the budget as a wedge between unions and social service providers, no one is yet feeling enough pain to break that coalition. What’ll it take?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:22 am
But virtually every household will be affected by the increased taxes to support our coddled public employees.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:31 am
The most visible loss of services for most was the elimination of licence updates from the Secretary of State. Most shrugged and took care of business.

To most, the loss of social services happens to ‘other people’ and as such are not as upset as thode who are actually receiving service.

Comment by pluotocrat03 Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:33 am
The woman who lived in the apartment across from me moved out because she lost her job. She worked with college students who were the first in their families to make it to college. The state school cut her job as one of the first ways it tightened its belt.

Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:38 am
I’m not surprised there were more people who claim to be affected. In my middle class town, the state workers are complaining but not preparing for layoffs or strikes. The town is still offering their services.

It would have been good to see a breakdown by race and class. Those who are mostly hurt, we could assume aren’t voting or participating and legislators can write them off.

The wedge is barely in and stuck. How soon before the Black caucus splits away on some issues to save CSU? How soon before AFSCME runs out of appeals? Rauner is merely pausing the hammer blow before it falls. When you don’t care about reelection, you can wait and wait.

Comment by Dr X Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:44 am
I’m not going to get into a debate about the impasse. I do, however, find it interesting that there’s a disconnect between how reporters and editorial boards who work for THE SAME PAPER treat the impasse with diametrically opposite views. The suburban papers I routinely read (NW Herald, Daily Herald, Suburban Life) have reporters who highlight the impasse and its impacts - but then the ed board members write about how the state doesn’t need a tax increase and how the GA needs to cut spending and enact every reform imaginable. That’s an interesting dynamic because the coverage pretty much cancels itself out.

I’m floored that people think K-12 funding has been cut. But as with the reporter vs. ed board dynamic it’s common for suburban papers and news outlets to have reported heavily on Manar’s education reform efforts. In those articles and in the coverage every school and education union official decries what the legislation would do to suburban school funding, so it’s not inconceivable that people THINK funding has been cut.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:45 am
Ron - words escape me to describe the level of troll you are…saprophytic might cover it though…

To the Post:

When people see everyone still working, the government running, and all is well in La La land, of course they won’t “feel” the impasse, however, many DID perceive hurt and angst when there was no stop gap or any other budget previously. I think it will come back again should no budget deal get worked out after the election.

Comment by Captain Illini Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 11:59 am
Roads open? Can I get a driver’s or fishing or hunting license? Schools open? State Parks open? OK no problems then. One of my mentors told me long ago that if the roads are plowed and you can get a driver’s license, then the vast majority of voters will think things are peachy.

Comment by 100 miles west Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:22 pm
Up the state income tax rate to 4.5%. Then balance the budget (not a theoretical balance, but actual) including proper pension payments using conservative estimates (shows everyone the true benefit cost). Tie any remaining funding requests to eliminating tax exemptions (such as retirement income).

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:35 pm
Thanks for the laugh Captain Illini! The poll clearly shows that the budget mess doesn’t matter to anyone but the government workers. Everyone will care when taxes are increased so as to pay for an entitled unionized workforce that is very expensive and does a generally poor job.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 12:47 pm
—-
Everyone will care when taxes are increased so as to pay for an entitled unionized workforce that is very expensive and does a generally poor job.
—

Wow. That’s some serious sour grapes, Ron. I’m sorry you lost your job as a “coddled state worker.” Because, ya know, if you can’t have it — no one can, right?

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:11 pm
Bobby, I’ve never worked for any government anywhere. Almost certainly never will.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:13 pm
People may know that school funding was cut if they are aware of prorated GSA payments. Some people may attribute that to the budget stalemate, without acknowledging that schools have only received a prorated portion of GSA for several years now.

Comment by FAIRNESS AND FAIRNESS ONLY Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:37 pm
The strategy was to use the budget to drive a wedge between the Democrats, force them to choose between unions and social services. Well, the choice has been made. Social Services don’t fund elections, Union’s do. Social Services don’t drive voters to the polls, Union’s do. The sick, the infirmed, the mentally unstable, the homeless, they don’t vote, Union Employees do. The governor forced this choice and it’s been made, it’s just not the outcome he expected.

Comment by Gruntled University Employee Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:37 pm
As a “coddled public employee” I make $15.60 an hour providing case management services to the chronically mentally ill in my County. I help people apply for SNAP benefits, Medicaid, find housing, apply for Social Security benefits and secure other resources that may be able to help them survive on a daily basis. My job is being eliminated because of budget cuts. Services to the mentally ill are also being cut. We live in a rural community so getting these benefits will be almost impossible. Most of my clients do not drive and are unable to access these resources on their own.

Comment by Bee Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:37 pm
Ron-take benefits away from the doctors, lawyers, cpa’s, IT professionals who could make much more in the private sector and see what it costs in the long run.

To the post: Labor should be working diligently to personalize the impasse to the average Joe. Elderly parents, relatives with disabilities, college age children, local state facility? Impact these and it will have a serious detrimental impact on you very soon if not now.

Comment by Sense of a Goose Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 1:56 pm
Ron - If you actually worked for the State of Illinois, you would greatly understand State Employee’s position.

You would be seeing the impasse in an entirely different perspective. But you are not qualified are you?

Comment by Elementary Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:00 pm
= over 13,000 households in each House district are impacted in some way or another by the impasse. You’d think that would cause a greater response from legislators. I mean, they get all freaked out when a much smaller fraction of that total are upset about something. =

On that theme, how many coal miners are there in Illinois these days? Yet many legislators will bend over backwards to subsidize the coal industry.

Comment by cover Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:04 pm
@Cheryl44

=She worked with college students who were the first in their families to make it to college. The state school cut her job as one of the first ways it tightened its belt.=

It sounds like a good place to cut, and the job never should have been there in the first place. I was the first in my family to make it to college, and if you can overcome the obstacles to get there in the first place, you shouldn’t need useless hand holding at that point.

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:08 pm
The unionized public employee position is simply give me more and more tax money. I get it.

Qualified to work for the state? Tell me about these “qualifications.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:43 pm
If we simply busted the public employee unions and eliminated pensions and the abomination of a clause in the state Constitution we would have plenty of money for all these wonderful programs. Too bad, the poor and disabled have to suffer.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:46 pm
Ron:

Your commentary is really getting old. Perhaps one day you’ll have something of substance to offer rather than the same meme about public workers, the “abomination of a constitution”, and unions. The level of ridiculousness you exhibit is something else.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:52 pm
Guys, Ron is a troll who makes comments to get a rise out of people. Let him be.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:54 pm
I agree with Illinois Bob, that state job sounds like a complete waste of resources. How much does someone like that make?

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 2:55 pm
You would think the percentage would have been higher with the number of complaints I saw by people who were upset they were no longer being reminded to renew their license plate stickers.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:00 pm
Bob:

Welcome back. Hope all is well. I know it’s difficult to believe but I wondered what happened and hoped all was ok.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:02 pm
I am in full agreement with Demoralized, please don’t feed “The Ron” or “The Bob”.

Comment by Gruntled University Employee Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:04 pm
I don’t know a single person that has been hurt by the budget impasse. Not surprising to see all the government workers lamenting the fact that most state spending has little impact on peoples lives.

Comment by Ron Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:17 pm
==If we simply busted the public employee unions and eliminated pensions and the abomination of a clause in the state Constitution==

Why stop there? You could create a time machine and have a front row seat at the 1970 convention.

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 3:21 pm
– I don’t know a single person that has been hurt by the budget impasse.–

Then you are blessed Ron.

Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:36 pm
Ron, if you know a doctor or a dentist, you know someone who has been hurt by the budget impasse. Just saying…

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 4:53 pm
= Illinois’ failure to pass a fully funded, responsible budget.==

Kennedy-speak for “raise taxes, we can afford it.”

Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:12 pm
- City Zen - Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:12 pm: =

Hello City Zen, I guess you missed the part where Rauner acknowledged that taxes need to be raised. There is no other way to balance the budget.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Oct 12, 16 @ 5:52 pm