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The expectations game

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* This quote is by “a GOP operative with knowledge of Rauner’s political operation who asked for anonymity”…

“If Trump is 17, 25 points down, I don’t know how we do in these [state legislative] races. In a presidential year, we normally wouldn’t have an opportunity. We think that Mike Madigan is the great equalizer.”

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:30 am

Comments

You can’t outperform the top of the ticket by 20 points. Its impossible. Dems will be fine.

Comment by Turnaround Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:33 am
Trump’s name is on every ballot. Madigan’s isn’t. This has the feel of someone trying to spin an expected loss.

“It wasn’t our fault!”

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:35 am
The Republicans aren’t playing for an actual victory, they didn’t even file enough candidates in the Senate to qualify for that, they are only playing for a moral victory. The size and impact of that moral victory will be open to debate (spin) but no matter what it won’t fundamentally alter the dynamic in Springfield for the next two years and they’ll need to figure out how to accomplish something they can run on if they want to re-elect the executive.

I’m largely ambivalent on the expectations game simply because I think the outcome of election day will change so little.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:36 am
It all comes down to the ground game the last 4 days, and history tells us the Dems do a much better job.. Its not so much that Trump loses the State by 19 points, its that his new wave of expected voters end up staying home, or they do vote but just for Trump and walk out..

Comment by Not Rich Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:37 am
They’re fooling themselves if they think that’s the margin that’ll be the end. Right now, the margin is about 12 points and that’s going to be way, way worse in some of these suburban districts.

You can only defy gravity by about 5-8 points. These are gonna be double that.

Comment by Tom B. Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:38 am
When you don’t have any real accomplishments, all you have left is demonizing the other side. That is what got Bruce the gig.

I had always thought that it was typically the candidate with the most optimistic campaign was the more attractive one to the voters.

Comment by Henry Francis Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:38 am
Rauner is not just the leader of the Illinois GOP. He literally owns the Party.
First he blames Madigan for his failures. Now it appears that it’s Trump’s fault.
Madigan was there when Rauner ran for Governor and Trump won the Illinois primary on Rauner’s watch.
Rauner is learning that it’s easier to buy a company and turn it in a direction he wants to go than it is a State.
It’s time to start looking in the mirror, Governor, if you’re looking for the reason for your miserable failures. Perhaps money buys you love in your social circle, but it’s not working with the electorate

Comment by Truthteller Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:41 am
“In a presidential year, we normally wouldn’t have an opportunity. We think that Mike Madigan is the great equalizer.”

If they lose? It’s because of Madigan. If they win? It’s because of Madigan.

But either way, don’t consider the effect of the $46 million that Rauner has dumped into these races.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:43 am
If legislative Democrats actually pick up seats this cycle, then Rauner’s political operation will have been an epic failure. Democratic headwinds or not.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:45 am
Win or lose, the Trump effect will have much longer legs than folks expect.

I hope — I hope — Rauner runs up against this when he starts (continues?) campaigning next year.

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:47 am
BTW — how much of Rauner’s $46 million is essentially to *offset* Trump — and not beat Madigan?

In other words, is Trump costing Rauner millions (he otherwise wouldn’t have to spend if, say, Bush or Walker or even Cruz was the nominee?)

Comment by Bobby Catalpa Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:49 am
Well, I mean, we all know it’s rigged anyway, right? /s

Comment by AlfondoGonz Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:58 am
The General has everyone’s attention right now, as will the installation of a new POTUS. But, eventually, Rauner and Co.’s massive spending is going to start making headlines and news shows.

One of the promos for Postcards From the Great Divide had someone proclaiming inn disbelief the amounts of dollars spent on a local school board race.

http://www.politicalpostcards.org/about-the-series/

Comment by Anon221 Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:59 am
take a look at 2008 and 2012. HGOP and SGOP lost, but were close in a lot of races. If they had spending parity or even the ability to outspend, they might have probably gained seats. Running statewide vs. in district are two entirely different campaigns. really need to look at the fundamentals in each race.

Comment by Peets Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:00 am
I still think Rauner’s all about 2018 and control of the map. The money is just to wear down the democrats and bit and reinforce his iron control of the gop legislators.

Comment by Earnest Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:01 am
–The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.–

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:03 am
Here is a good measure of the failure ahead for BigBrain…from the WSJ…Two dozen billionaires have spent $88 million on the 2016 presidential campaign, bankrolling an election in which both major-party nominees have railed against the influence of money in politics….So BigBrain spending to get a few house seats very sorry effort

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:12 am
Rauner is not only the leader of the Republican Party, he literally owns it. It’s increasingly apparent to everyone but the Raunernauts and Rauner himself, that it’s easier to buy a company and turn it around than to do that with a State where you have to contend with pesky voters and without the absence of the bankruptcy alternative.
Madigan was in place before Rauner sought the governorship, and Trump won the Illinois primary on Rauner’s watch.
Rather than pointing the finger at those two,Rauner should look in a mirror and point at the cause of his failures

Comment by Truthteller Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:15 am
Oops- with the absence of a bankruptcy alternative

Comment by Truthteller Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:16 am
Whose money is best-spent tarnishing candidates by associating candidates with Trump and Madigan?

Go.

Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:19 am
Well since Trump is +2 in the two most accurate polls and only 5 down in the mainstream oversampled polls the whole premise of this discussion is out the window.

Comment by Faustian Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:19 am
==You can’t outperform the top of the ticket by 20 points. Its impossible. Dems will be fine.==

They won’t need to in many contested Districts. Trump isn’t down 20 everywhere

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 11:33 am
Faustian. Are you referring to Rasmussen and LA Times polls?

Comment by A Parent Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 12:01 pm
–Well since Trump is +2 in the two most accurate polls and only 5 down in the mainstream oversampled polls the whole premise of this discussion is out the window.–

So no worries.

Makes you wonder why the governor and suburban lawmakers have been running away from Trump like their hair’s on fire all these months.

–Trump isn’t down 20 everywhere–

That’s true. The Simon Institute poll had a push Downstate, Trump -31 in the suburbs, Trump -48 in the city.

That -31 in the suburbs is the real scary one for the state GOP.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 12:10 pm
Faustian, I have to ask, is there an article or talking points memo that came out over the weekend?

I’ve seen this assertion that Trump is actually ahead and that top to bottom, all of the polling data is wrong several times over the last few days. Such broad inaccuracy would be unprecedented. Inaccurate polling is not unheard of, but for everyone to be off by 5-7%? That’s never been seen.

Comment by illini97 Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 1:26 pm
It’s a weird election where anything can happen. It’s also not really where Trump is in the entire state but where he is in the targeted legislative districts, most of those probably aren’t going to have the 17 - 25 range and might be in single digits.

Madigan isn’t the only great equalizer either, both of these candidates have historically negative ratings. Clinton only looks good when compared to Trump, she also has huge negatives and is up-side-down in likability as well.

Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 1:39 pm
I’ve noted this before but it’s worth repeating. I moved to DuPage County in 1984. At that time it was a completely Republican area. All the yard signs featured that elephant symbol and the word Republican near the candidate’s name. The few Democrats who were running did not mention their party affiliation.

Today my state rep, state senator and Congressman are all Democrats. I thought the day would never come, but here it is.

In the last week I’ve done a more systematic survey of the yard signs. None of the Republican candidates feature the word Republican on their signs. Not one.

In their mailers they attack Madigan but they don’t mention Rauner, let alone Trump. The only appearance of the word Republican is in small print when the state party is funding the flyer.

So the unnamed source of this quote is on the money- it’s a terrible year to run as a Republican in Illinois. Even in DuPage County!

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 1:52 pm
I ilve in deep southern Illinois where the Republicans have been running scorched earth ads against John Bradley, Gary Forby, and Sheila Simon. The Democrats have responded in kind, with child molester being one of the nicer things the two sides have said about each other’s candidates. The upshot? Rauner has wasted his money with the nasty ads on both sides equalizing each other out. Incumbents Forby and Bradley will win, Sheila Simon (who is not an incumbent) maybe. If this holds true across the state, we may end up where we started despite all the child molester (it’s true, they are calling each other child molesters or supporters of child molestors!!) ads.

Comment by Dutch3001 Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 1:52 pm
Deft Wing: That’s a really good question. Do you get more for your money associating Dems with Madigan’s, or by associating Repubs with Trump?

No matter how much you try, you won’t build public awareness of MJM and his faults to Trumpian levels. Pure name awareness wins, even with the negatives. And Trump is on everyone’s ballot as a reminder.

Comment by walker Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 2:27 pm
Team Rauner has an excuse for everything.

But um — Uhlein is supporting Trump, isn’t he?

So is Rauner.

Don’t know about Griffin.

But sure seems disingenuous to criticize Trump anonymously while supporting him publicly.

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 2:40 pm
I am supporting Trump,.but I can’t stand Rauner. I am not sure where that puts me. (Maybe Alton?)

Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 9:08 pm
With $46M on the table, Rauner has raised expectations sky high. Good luck explaining the ROI on November 9th. These expectations can’t be spun down.

Yes, the Speaker is deeply unpopular and has been for some time. But Rauner has fallen 25 points in favorability since Jan 15 to near low 30s, Trump is an elevator car with the cable cut, and the IL electorate are very mad at state dysfunction. Money can’t sell a bad message.

Comment by peon Monday, Oct 24, 16 @ 10:05 pm