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Analysis: 498 “Madigan” radio mentions in October

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Illinois

* From an October 28th e-mail from Veritone, a company I’d never heard of until last week…

Hi Rich,

I saw your Madigan post and wanted to provide you some insight that you may find helpful.

We track local news talk radio within the state of Illinois. Within the past week “Madigan” was mentioned over 180 times. Here is a brief collection of advertisements from radio in the state of Illinois to include an interview with Jason Gonzales. Can I provide you any additional information that may be helpful for you?

Best regards,
Elisa Henry

The link she provided is here. It even has that new Jim Durkin radio ad paid for by Gov. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC - the independent expenditure which broke the contribution caps and allowed Durkin to collect unlimited contributions from Rauner and Ken Griffin.

Not every reference will be about Speaker Madigan, but it’s close enough.

* Here’s what Ms. Henry says the data covers…

Local news talk radio information that consists of

What hosts are saying
Interviews
Constituent call-in conversations
Advertisements

* This is a tiny bit of what Veritone does…

Transcription Engines convert spoken audio recordings into readable text. They are built and trained to recognize different languages, dialects, and topics, even in the presence of background music or noise. Veritone utilizes a continuous machine-learning combination of several transcription engines to provide the best possible transcription of audio recordings. For those occasions where 100% accuracy is required, the request can be routed to human transcription professionals as well.

* Anyway, I asked Elisa how far back she could search for “Madigan” in Illinois and she sent me this report…

2015

July - 108
August - 31
September - 19
October - 160
November - 75
December - 149

2016

January - 114
Feb. - 96
March - 105
April - 24
May - 159
June 1 -30 - 225
July - 371
August - 121
September - 34
October - 498

Looks like he’s peaking.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 9:51 am

Comments

Madigan is far and away the most hated politician in Illinois, and that’s saying A LOT. Expect the mail/TV/radio/social media onslaught aimed at him to continue for at least two more years. House & Senate Dems can also expect “guilty by association” ads against them too. — effective ads, unlike the Biss Misses.

Comment by Deft Wing Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:07 am
I think he’s the most controversial and most prominent but most hated seems like a stretch to me.

Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:11 am
===but most hated seems like a stretch===

Nobody has worse numbers than MJM in Illinois politics.

Nobody.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:18 am
=Nobody has worse numbers than MJM in Illinois politics. =

And yet there seems to be little or no weakening of his position as speaker. Is there any chance this election cycle has an impact on his power/position?

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:21 am
===Is there any chance this election cycle has an impact on his power/position? ===

Yep.

Leadership is primarily about protecting your people. So far, he’s done that very well. But if Rauner proves that Madigan can’t protect his people… ?

“Hundreds of guys depended on Paulie and he got a piece of everything they made. And it was tribute, just like in the old country, except they were doing it here in America. And all they got from Paulie was protection from other guys looking to rip them off. And that’s what it’s all about. That’s what the FBI could never understand. That what Paulie and the organization does is offer protection for people who can’t go to the cops. That’s it. That’s all. They’re like the police department for wiseguys.”

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:25 am
–… An interview with Jason Gonzales.–

Whoa, that’s a real get.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:37 am
well, it is said that we live in Madiganistan!

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 10:50 am
Mill - correct BUT if the Republicans win several seats this year and if HRC wins the presidency then 2018 might result in the Republicans overtaking the House. They are playing in so many districts that even if candidates lose by a slim margin - like a Mike Babcock or a Brandi McGuire - then they can come roaring back in 2018 with the same volunteer base, infrastructure and cash to close the deal.

And for those who think that is far-fetched - the HRO won six (6!) seats in 2010 with much less cash and no gubernatorial staff to work for them. They could do even better in 2018.

I would be curious to see the Madigan approval numbers in tough districts. My guess is that the numbers are pretty bad. Are the Governor’s much better? Who knows.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 11:27 am
There is very little likelihood of a challenge to Madigan even if he has a bad election cycle this time.

However, Dem caucus members in the House are paying close attention to the staggering amount of negative association there is with Madigan. This undoubtedly will have an effect on individual Democratic Caucus members.

In sum, this is a long game for Rauner.

Comment by Deft Wing Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 11:28 am
The Speaker has paid for and designed mail denouncing himself to protect his members. It’s only working better this time because both sides are doing it, not just his. /s

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 11:40 am
If Madigan left tomorrow, there’d just be another Dem Speaker. You think he’s going to be either try, or be able, to get his members to throw unions under the bus so that Rauner can claim that he’s compromising with the dems by giving them their tax increase because they’ve allowed him to “grow” the economy? Not gonna happen.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 12:20 pm
34 in September 2016 & 498 in October. Looks like those mailers are getting the job done.

-Looks like he’s peaking.-

I’m sure Mr. Brown would think he was ‘trending’. /s

Comment by WhoKnew Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 12:25 pm
So the pundits all go on spring break and extended labor day vacation?

Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 12:49 pm
I especially like the ads that name a democratic candidate and immediately say “Mike Madigan” as though it was part of the candidate’s last name. The ads get tied up in knots to make it appear that the Democratic candidate was a Madigan phppet.

Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 1:01 pm
===If Madigan left tomorrow, there’d just be another Dem Speaker.===

And nothing would change, right? Sorry PS, you lose the internet for about a decade and counting. There has been, nor will there ever be another Mike Madigan.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 1:02 pm
So true, Madigan is an Illinois political legend. He won’t be replicated

Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 1:11 pm
==So true, Madigan is an Illinois political legend. He won’t be replicated===

Future legislation will ensure that’s the case.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 2:43 pm
A guy, what I said was that Rauner would get no further with the next dem speaker…not that the next speaker would be a madigan clone. Don’t put words in my mouth. Rauner has poisoned the well with his non-stop campaigning and lack of leadership, and his TA would destroy a key Dem constituency. So, no matter who’s speaker, that Rauner TA dog won’t hunt.

Lastly, madigan ain’t going nowhere. He’ll stay as long as he’d like, and while he’s in the House, he’ll be majority speaker long after Rauner tires of his adventure in lawmaking.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 3:15 pm
PS, if there’s even a small chance of the GOP gaining the majority, Madigan walks. The next Dem Speaker (if that happens) will not have anywhere close to the consolidation and discipline MJM has had. The election from within the caucus would be a bloodbath. It would be a compromise guy (ala Gene Sawyer). You have no idea what a person like that would agree to. The vacuum created by Madigan leaving for whatever reason would be dramatic. He’s carefully chosen his Lieutenants to assure no coups over decades. There’s no heir apparent, but plenty of hungry wannabes. It would not be smooth.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 3:46 pm
===Rauner would get no further with the next dem speaker===

He’d get a lot further with ANYONE else.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 3:47 pm
A guy, a GOP majority? I’ll have what you’re smokin. The idealess GOP will be lucky to keep the seats they have. Your statements regarding dem solidarity are garnered from your west suburban perch where you porchwalk. I think you need to go polish your crystal ball bud.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 3:54 pm
Deft Wing: Just curious? How many of the House Dem caucus members do you personally know well enough for you to report how they feel about Speaker Madigan?

You write, here and in other CapFax threads, like a political operative recently from out of state. If that impression is wrong, then please take it as constructive criticism. Please get better informed.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:02 pm
===He’d get a lot further with ANYONE else.===

Typical vague nonsense prediction. Care to elaborate just a bit on what “a lot further” means? I think you’re the Magic 8 ball of commenters pal.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:02 pm
I’m a pretty strong GOP voter and even I can admit there won’t be a Republican majority in Illinois ever again

Comment by cgo75 Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:08 pm
walker, make no mistake, members have taken notice.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:13 pm
They also noticed what happened to dunkin. Just sayin.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:36 pm
Rich, hard not to notice. But enough to significantly challenge his position?

Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 2, 16 @ 4:46 pm
I think the average every day working person, the people who vote, find it distasteful a billionare, like Bruce Rauner, his attempt to influence the political landscape to their liking. The money given to talk show goofballs, who can’t manage their own fiscal affairs, can’t pay off their own political debt, tied to the Cicero political crime family underworld, which the working joe and jane find, to be polite, distasteful.

We’ve had enough of this posturing, ruining the State of Illinois fiscal future, not funding education, road projects, but yet find the money to place well connected political hacks jobs in state government and contracts for other private capital venturist.

Rauner is already talking about breaking his promise of one term with a 2018 election bid.

Enough!

Comment by Tinsel town Thursday, Nov 3, 16 @ 7:25 am