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* Sun-Times…
The goal all along for Gov. Bruce Rauner’s Illinois Republican Party has been to chip away at House Speaker Michael Madigan’s veto-proof majority.
Right now Democrats outnumber Republicans 71-47 in the House. But since at least 71 votes are required to override a veto, losing even one seat would erode some of the Democrats’ power to buck the governor.
So, while the amounts both parties are spending on targeted legislative races number in the millions, the real magic number for Republicans is simple: one.
Just one Republican win in an Illinois House election in a seat currently held by a Democrat will help make a difference, according to a top Republican strategist.
“A pick-up breaking their super majority in a presidential year when the Democrats drew the maps, it would be a very good thing,” the strategist said. […]
“That was their goal two years ago, and now they’re going to pay $40 million and they still only want to get one?” Brown said. “I’m not sure what they hope to portray that as, because as anybody who has been around the Legislature knows, there really isn’t a working 3/5ths [majority],” Brown said. “It sounds like they’re trying to lower expectations.”
* If not for Rauner, Illinois Republicans would be cowering in fetal positions right now preparing for a massive blowout. Their presidential and US Senate candidates are trailing by double-digits, creating hurricane-force headwinds. The comptroller’s race would be another under-funded massacre. The House and Senate Democrats have recruited strong candidates in GOP-held districts (McAuliffe, Kay, Bourne, Jesiel, McConchie, Rezin, Luechtefeld, to name just a few) and would be poised to add to their considerable majorities against Republican incumbents who would once again not have much money or troops and would be fighting for their political lives under a Democratic-drawn district map.
At the very least, Rauner might have stopped that pulverization from happening this year - although national headwinds are extremely tough to overcome, even with money. Some of that could still happen. That’s one reason why I love politics at this level. There’s real mystery to it.
* But tens of millions of dollars in campaign contributions and a unified anti-Madigan theme has naturally and justifiably raised expectations. You can’t just dump all this cash and then say, meh, no biggie. It may not be a lot of money to Rauner and Ken Griffin, but it’s almost an obscene number to most others.
And, seriously, they’re likely gonna pick up one seat anyway with Rep. Jack Franks’ departure. That bar is too low.
* The Republicans need to prove that they can hold their incumbents and pick up seats during presidential years.
If they can’t do that after all this effort, then any seats they gain in the 2018 off-year (assuming Clinton wins) could conceivably be lost in the next presidential in 2020 - or, at least that’s what the Dems will surely say.
* I have my own thoughts that I haven’t yet shared publicly about where the bar should be this year. What are yours?
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:50 am
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FWIW, Rauner and Emanuel sharing same bus in Cubs parade.
AKA, the Bus Nobody Wants to Be On or See.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:57 am
One seat, tied to the supermajority, is too easy, and too inconsequential. The Ds never had a working supermajority. Trading Jack Franks for an R won’t get what Rauner wsnts, which is to break what he sees as Madigan’s hold on the Ds so that more Dunkins will appear among the mushrooms. One R pickup won’t give Rauner the harvest he really wants.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:59 am
“If they can’t do that after all this effort, then any seats they gain in the 2018 off-year (assuming Clinton wins) could conceivably be lost in the next presidential in 2020″
That’s what they’ll say…but I’m not too sure. The power of incumbency is strong, which makes this election season more of a long-term battle. Even if the GOP candidates lose many of these races, they gain the expertise and recognition to win in 2 years. That foundation could keep them surviving in four years (especially if the national GOP gets their act together and nominates a moderate who doesn’t drive Dem turnout).
Comment by NIU Grad Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 10:59 am
With the sort of investment being made and the negatives Madigan has… they should be able to pick up 3-5 House seats. But they run Raunerites instead of John Sullivan or Toi Hutchinson types who are not only smart and savvy but are just really relatable and likable people. And their whole ball of wax is “Madigan is evil!.” Expand your talking points a bit to things normal people actually care about.
Comment by TownGown Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:00 am
“Where’s the bar?”
Gotta admit that I was disappointed when that wasn’t followed by “I’m buying.”
As to where *I* think the bar should be — who cares? The only people who need to be satisfied with the results of Rauner’s election campaign are his fellow billionaire backers.
Fact is, Reuner’s billionaires’ opinions are the only ones that matter regarding *anything* he does.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:01 am
There is a bar on the corner, at the end of the block. And my neighborhood bar is, by far, the best place to watch election night returns. That’s where the bar is, and it’s the only bar that matters.
Of course, there are usually 3-4 open bar stools, especially on a Tuesday, so if any of the newly elected HGOPs wants to join me to celebrate, come on over, I’ll buy.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:02 am
My bar is laying on the ground.
After watching this administration, any signs of life is a relief.
Few GOP legislators earned their reelection.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:02 am
Rauner set the bar when he predicted GOP majorities in both houses by 2022. He later defended the statement as “very realistic.” If he can’t make much progress toward reducing GOP minority status this election, that only leaves three to go, and one of them is a presidential year.
Comment by anon Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:02 am
I believe Madigan’s optimal position is 68 seats.
No more and no less.
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:04 am
They want to take away the Senate Supermajority too. They’re already picking up the Sullivan seat, so they need to hold Leuchtefeld’s seat and beat 3/4 of Tom Cullerton/Forby/Bertino-Terrant/Bush
Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:08 am
I don’t think their bar should be anything less than four or five. They have to assume they hold their own, pick up Franks, and with the available competitive seats (Skoog, Cloonen, Smiddy, Beiser, all the suburban races), anything less is a failure for them. If they only get one, the ROI is absolutely horrible.
FWIW, I think the parties are going to more or less hold serve. R’s could have considered that a win if they hadn’t raised expectations so much. And, in the end, it’s not gonna matter. Even if there are 66 D’s, they still won’t want to whack unions and all of the other targets the governor has.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:09 am
Forby & B-T are seats that will be won or lost based on how this whole Trump thing plays out. He’s rebounded (not enough to compete to win Illinois obviously) post-FBI Hillary bombshell and unless there are a lot of ticket splitters, those Trump voters just might be enough to kill both supermajorities
Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:10 am
If Trump gets elected, and things don’t go well, then 2018 could be a huge wave election for the Democrats. Which would be a setback for Rauner’s GOP majorities.
Comment by anon Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:11 am
No, this will not change the dynamic in Springfield in any way at all.
Also, why is this the second one of these stories in about a week where the Republican strategist is anonymous? You’ve spent tens of millions of dollars on this strategy and it’s very obvious what your approach is, isn’t there anyone willing to put their name on it? It’s not some big secret, I don’t get why all the anonymity.
Anything less than taking at least one chamber and veto session (and next year’s regular session) won’t be any different from the past two years. Taking the Senate is mathematically impossible, not because there aren’t enough seats up, simply because the Republicans didn’t file enough candidates. The House will have a lot of carnage but while a number of seat may flip I’m skeptical that the net gains will be all that much.
Comment by The Captain Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:11 am
Vanilla Man please enlighten us. What did the Democrat members of the GA do to earn reelection?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:13 am
Also, if both GOP caucuses make big pick-ups on Tuesday, don’t expect the anti-Madigan ads to stop. Rauner, Proft & friends will get emboldened and just keep running ads against the Speaker, albeit without tying him to specific candidates (until after March 2018 of course).
Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:15 am
To think this is about one seat, and removing a “veto proof majority” is beyond dumb. How’d those veto overrides go for Madigan this cycle? Almost all failed. Flipping one seat would be an empty victory, and might even be to Madigan’s political advantage. Five seats, and now you’re talking!
Comment by walker Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:16 am
===Fact is, Rauner’s billionaires’ opinions are the only ones that matter regarding *anything* he does.===
Lots of truth there.
===Of course, there are usually 3-4 open bar stools, especially on a Tuesday, so if any of the newly elected HGOPs wants to join me to celebrate, come on over, I’ll buy.===
Like “Rick’s Cafe Americain”…
To the Post,
I’ve had my thoughts out there recently, so I’ll reiterate.
I have my over/under at 66.
Here’s all the reality I’m coming from with my thoughts…
Madigan’s 71 was always 68 (Dunkin, Franks, and Drury were never part of the 71) so if the start number is 71…
Rauner picks up Franks, “for real”
I also felt, and it’s the only incumbent I’ve named ever, Cloonen, was in deep trouble way before Candy Crunch and Rauner could finally finish that seat off. Rauner pickup.
Dunkin is out. Madigan “pickup”.
So that “70 minus Drury”
Rauner gets Madigan down to an actual voting 66 of lower, then that’s 3 seats, in these headwinds.
Now, there’s Munger.
If Rauner is at 67 and watches Mendoza get sworn in… this all has been a disaster.
That’s a “plus 2″ seat in the House and a loss on the statewide proxy. Yikes.
Munger wins, Rauner gets Madigan to a voting “66″… that the actual “bar” that can show some measure of success.
It’s also an attainable bar.
There’s also… McAuliffe… Bourne… Kay…. Jimenez…
Rauner need to keep ALL the seats Rauner currently controls to lower the number to a voting “66″. Madigan gets one, maybe gets a second, instead of picking 3 Dems off, it now needs to be 4… maybe 5… Whoa.
That’s why “66″ and include the Munger re-elect, that’s the bar of showing “something”, and it’s possible, not just wishful.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:18 am
== unless there are a lot of ticket splitters ==
Just from listening to people who are fed up with the whole mess, got a feeling there are going to be more ticket splitters than normal. Usually Illinois is pretty predictable, but I think there will be a few surprises this year.
Comment by RNUG Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:24 am
What about the Democrats?
We’re discussing where the GOP bar is, right?
Maybe your mom would have been thrown by your “what about them!”, defense, but this is CapFax.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:24 am
Four net seats flipping R in each chamber would be significant for the future but business as usual for the next 2. If Rauner wants a favorable margin by 2022 he would have to pull off that feat in this and the next 3 elections.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:24 am
“What did the Democrat members of the GA do to earn reelection?”
Same as any other election official does to “earn reelection”: failed to displease more than half of the voters in their districts.
It’s an admittedly low bar, but it’s always the bar.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:25 am
Have heard from some well-informed people over the years, that Madigan is most comfortable at 68. But even they cannot read minds, and he probably ain’t talking.
Comment by walker Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:26 am
To the post, we’re about to find out what is more important, a ground game or money
If Rauner doesn’t net 4 or 5 seats in the House after all this money, he didn’t get a decent ROI. And if he loses the Comptroller’s office, he’ll be in a bit of a bind without his wingman.
Comment by RNUG Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:29 am
To me, there’s about 12-13 seats really at play.
8 of these are Dem and 5 of these are GOP.
My prediction is that 3 of these D seats turn R and that 2 of these R seats turn D. That leaves a net GOP gain of 1 seat. Takes away the “theoretical” supermajority, but actually gives Madigan cover since he never had a true supermajority anyway.
Comment by Anonymouth Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:32 am
As a supplement…
Madigan get to 67, loses Munger…
Rauner also loses his “Super Majority” illusion that “Madigan can just… ”
Nope… That’s gone now, as is the Comptroller, as Rauner sits at least needing 9 more Dem seats to get to an easy 60.
Lose one big hammer without that “Super Majority” crutch, so that optimism better be “great”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:43 am
===Fact is, Rauner’s billionaires’ opinions are the only ones that matter regarding *anything* he does.===
Lots of truth there.
Fact is the trial lawyers and the 15% of Illinois workers that are union are all that matter to the Democrats. More truth there
There will most certainly be cuts, Madigan and Rauner have both said so. Democrats have signaled no cuts to labor so watch out social services.
Vote Accordingly
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:46 am
You’ve been promising to take it to Madigan. Spending millions of dollars. And your goal is functionally to fight him to a draw??? REALLY. LOW. BAR.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:51 am
Excellent analysis, OW.
Both sides playing the expectations game; D’s shouldn’t lose seats in a presidential election year with Trump at the top; R’s shouldn’t lose seats with Rauner’s money.
I’d call it a Rauner “win” at 67 or less, and a Madigan “win” at 70 or more.
Practically, Rauner loses the talking point of the D supermajority, so he loses one excuse for his failure to govern.
The most important bar is “Munger wins.” If I’m Rauner, I’d prefer 65 and Munger to 70 but Mendoza.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 11:52 am
There is no bar for Brucie. Whatever happens, he will spin it as a victory against Madigan at the same time blame everything on Madigan. Brucie will still not be able to get his runaground agenda passed and still won’t care that he destroys the state. He lives in a bubble of his own making.
Comment by d.p.gumby Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 12:18 pm
I want to see the spin if there’s a minimal gain at two times: after the election, and then in 2018 when there are two more years of dysfunction under Rauner. What will the latter be? “I swear I can do it - just spend a couple hundred million dollars, reelect me and give me a few more seats. Because… Madigan.” My ears are bleeding already.
Comment by Archiesmom Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 12:25 pm
===Democrats have signaled no cuts to labor so watch out social services.===
After that 2012 quote rolls out, the “Rauner Cuts” will be front and center.
It’s Rauner placing social services in peril. If anything, social services know too well it’s on Rauner, as those rallies showed in Springfield. Please keep up.
- Robert the Bruce -
Thanks. I also think the irony of both sides looking at how far they can spin the negative to positive really puts this whole cycle in a odd but appropriate perspective.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 12:26 pm
I agree with Hamlet above. 68 is a good number for Madigan. Lower than that and Madigan has to start putting targets on some bills that some of the regulars stay off of for certain reasons. I say the bar should be around 63-64
Comment by Been There Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 12:49 pm
Agree with Chicago cynic, you guys have the bar set wayyyyy too low. Come on, national outlets are writing stories about how much the Gov is spending this year. Bruce alone has spent tens of millions of dollars on these house races, he and his fellow billionaires have funneled even more cash to state Republican organizations and y’all are telling me 2 or 3 seats picked up should be counted as a win? Considering the mountain of cash that has been spent tying D candidates to the speaker, and the fact that Madigan isn’t much more popular than trump (maybe even less), shouldn’t it be more like 10-12 seats flipped?
Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:04 pm
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-contested-legislative-races-2016-htmlstory.html
Certainly doesn’t look like the “billionaires” have bought this election. Looks about even to me
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:14 pm
Democrat Diana Rauner, Bruce Rauner, Uihlein and Griffin seem to be the lone funding source for Raunerism.
Four people, 3 families…
… to get Madigan to 66 seats or lower… to “Fire Madigan”…
… for the 3 families to personally keep a front party afloat.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:23 pm
After 12 years of one party rule in Springfield there is finally some balance to the political spending in Illinois. Remember Governor Rauner won every county but Cook but has been stopped in his tracks by Speaker Madigan’s influence.
Don’t pretend like the Democrats’s money is pure as wind driven snow, it’s not.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:36 pm
===Governor Rauner won every county but Cook ===
Counties don’t vote.
You’re welcome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:39 pm
===Remember Governor Rauner won every county but Cook===
Which is why so many people think he should do infinitely better than just +1 next Tuesday.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:40 pm
The residents in those counties do OW and they hold the Speaker in much lower regard than the Governor.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:41 pm
Also, - Lucky Pierre -
Your talking points are indeed compelling, where is your bar, did I miss it?
This post is about the bar, where’s yours?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:43 pm
Best functional outcome…
Madigan 66-67.
Munger wins, finds the bodies and pulls back the curtain on the Wizard’s money manipulation…
Rauner loses financial shield, social program cuts inflict intolerable PUBLIC pain and he can’t claim ‘Madigans veto -proof majority…
Sen/House Dems craft unified budget that limits cuts, increases taxes across the board…
Heat on Gov increases exponentially and he is forced to put R green lights on those tax increases.
Some problems get fixed, budget gets put in place, Dems promote ability to lead, stability and good governence, Universities and social services stabalize…
and Rauner and Raunerites are damaged goods in 2018.
Thats my guess on the electoral outcome, and political landscape on Nov 9
Comment by anonymous...kinda Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:43 pm
===I’m not too sure. The power of incumbency is strong===
I was around in 1994 and 1996. Whole lot of incumbents (D first, then R) lost those two years.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:44 pm
I don’t pretend to know what will happen, you can analyze polls at the national level, most of the posts here are based on emotion, there is little data to go on.
I think very few voters are engaged at the State Rep or Senator level.
After watching the World Series I am also mad at the Indiana politicans.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:49 pm
===and they hold the Speaker in much lower regard than the Governor===
OK, so you put the bar where? 10 net pickup for GOPs?
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:54 pm
===I don’t pretend to know… ===
You could’ve stopped right there and that explains your commenting history here and the talking points.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:55 pm
===The residents in those counties do OW and they hold the Speaker in much lower regard than the Governor===
Then figuring out where the bar is should be easy…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 1:59 pm
The surprise this year will be in the 75th. Martha Shugart the Democrat will take that seat with no help from the state party. This girl has put in a lot of time knocking on doors. This will negate the Franks loss. Also that is part of the 38th Senate district were Rezin is in a real fight after she co/sponsored the anti union bill eliminating prevailing wage. Even folks in red Grundy like there unions.
Comment by Augie Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:00 pm
I am not going to speculate, but I ask the question,”will it matter?”. Increasing the state income tax back to 5%, without spending cuts, won’t begin to get us out of our downward spiral. A year from now, when pension returns are again adjusted to reality,we may need a rate closer to 7%. We all know Rauners endgame makes no financial sense, but neither does Madigans’. 71,66,55. Doesn’t matter.
Comment by blue dog dem Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:06 pm
- blue dog dem -
If it got to “55″, boy, that would matter.
You may want to sit out a few plays if you can’t see at least that. Ugh.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:10 pm
Agree Blue Dog, Dems are good at the math of winning seats on the maps they drew to their advantage. They are terrible on the budget math, every last dollar of state spending is sacred, they are unwilling to cut anything and they can only agree to tax the rich.
Here is my guess and at least I am calling it a guess because no one knows really what will happen.
Dems will have 34 Senators and 63 in the House so I also don’t think it will matter.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:16 pm
===Dems will have 34 Senators and 63 in the House===
So 5 Senate seats, 8 House seats…
I think your Senate “guess” is… “interesting”….
“I’ll leave it at ‘interesting’, thanks”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:21 pm
The 75th will be the surprise Martha Shugart will win that race with no help from the state party. That is also the 38th Senate district and Rezin is in a dog fight after her co sponsorship of SB 1046 eliminating prevailing wage. Whatch this area.
Comment by Augie Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:22 pm
I agree with ow on base assumptions. Okay, so I don’t know enough to disagree. That puts the number at 66. But I think Bourne and Kay are going down. Plus I believe Munger will go down.
Rauner loss - Labor win
That right there is why I am certain the ILRB will rule total impasse and the great labor war will begin. Total war
EDGE will not be renewed
No grand bargain
We all go down.
Ragnarok
Comment by Honeybear Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:26 pm
To get to 59-59 all the GOP has to do is hold all their incumbents, grab the open Franks & Verschoore seats, and knock out Yingling, Cloonen, Beiser, Skoog, Bradley, Smiddy, Conroy, Mussman, Phelps & Sente - Piece of Cake?
So, let’s say in 2018 there is a 59-59 split - what the heck happens? Has it happened before? The House was designed to have 177 members but post-cutback, there’s the tie risk with no designated tiebreaker (like the VP in the US Senate)
Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:36 pm
My opinion. More than 3 in the House. More than 2 in the Senate. That’s enough grease to set up ‘18.
Comment by A guy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:37 pm
- Honeybear -
I’ve been pondering a spell on the next Labor thingy out there…
Now, let’s say Rauner has an “average” night, maybe even a “meh, not bad” night…
Rauner has no budget, an alleged pension “deal” and an other stopgap budgetary deadline upcoming too.
At some point, a strike in the middle of a stopgap budget discussion an Rauner still needs votes for this alleged “agreement” that has yet to be agreed in a voted bill.
Of all that going on, is it worth the whole battle rolling out?
At some point, reality can’t be all scorched earth, because election results can be sobering.
Maybe…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:39 pm
Keep an eye out for the Downers Grove house seat race between Greg Hose (D) and David Olsen (R). Since the Sandack scandal, this is an open seat. My anecdotal data shows a close race.
Comment by Nathan Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:45 pm
- Grand Avenue -
Use the Google key. This is for free…
http://trib.in/2fDpILT
Also note Lee A. Daniels
OW
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:48 pm
I say again dems will have 71 in my opinion. If they are lucky they might gain 2.
Also, Mendoza wins.
Comment by Mal Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:48 pm
After this much money, if the GOP doesn’t control the General Assembly it will be labeled a total and complete failure and Rauner should be so embarrassed that he pulls a Palin and quits at the halfway mark.
that’s the bar.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:53 pm
Nate, Olsen wins that by 10 points or better.
Mal…Why not 75? Are you serious?
Comment by A guy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:54 pm
- Michelle Flaherty -
So the bar is Rauner majority or Ole Slip and Sue?
“Is there a… third… choice?”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 2:59 pm
A guy
If voters were aware of what really was going on then 75 might be a possibility. Most voters dont even know how to term limit a bad politician so it wont be 75.
Comment by Mal Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:00 pm
I’m betting labor war because of the timing. This time of year holds the maximum advantage. It was this time last year that I thought the withholding of pay and forced ateike was going to happen. Think micro what the average state worker is gearing up for right now. Get it?
Plus with only one session in Dec I’m thinking that EDGE the governors huge concern will not get approved. That seems pre emptive and Leeds me to think that a grand bargain is already in shambles.
Rauner might as well take his best shot at labor. Best timing
Rauner would be using his best force multiplier. This time of year.
Comment by Honeybear Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:03 pm
- Honeybear -
I’ll defer to your take on the timing.
I’m still of the thought that results Tuesday may impact many a thing including the Labor struggles.
One “threat” at a time. Elections have a funny way to change minds.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:12 pm
$46 million seems like an awful lot for a state rep seat…
Comment by Boone's is Back Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:38 pm
Ow I pray you are right and that Rauner will not initiate. It’s what a sane politician would do. But I fear not what a venture capitalist would. There’s is a world with little consequences. That is what I think we forget to factor in. But maybe we can hope for epiphany.
Comment by Honeybear Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:45 pm
The bar should be holding even.
Right now, Rauner’s excuse for his own incompetence is “veto proof majority.”
What is the Governor going to do if he lacks that card to play? How does he explain things away?
Comment by Gooner Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 3:58 pm
HB and OW have covered almost every angle I can imagine…so with a boring too ticket ….so I will tune in here tues and see what happens and the early spin on the results….I am assuming the blog owner wants us here Tuesday.
Comment by David Friday, Nov 4, 16 @ 4:13 pm