Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Trump, Rauner and the Illinois Democrats

Posted in:

Illinois

The impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House is creating a strange political landscape for Bruce Rauner to navigate at the governor’s mansion.

The Republican governor spent the better part of a year refusing to discuss the eventual GOP presidential nominee and wouldn’t even speak Trump’s name. At the time, Rauner was trying to walk the tightrope of not providing Democrats with fodder to attack him during their budget battle while also not invoking Trump’s wrath by directly criticizing him.

Now not only will Rauner continue to be asked to weigh in on Trump and every controversial move the future president makes, but he’ll be doing so with his own 2018 re-election bid at stake.

Rauner remains the undisputed leader of the Illinois Republican Party, and Trump enjoyed widespread support Downstate in Tuesday’s election, even if he lost badly to Democrat Hillary Clinton in Chicago and the suburbs. Trump won 92 of 102 Illinois counties and racked up 50- and 60-percentage point margins in far southern Illinois. Disagreeing with Trump carries great political risk for Rauner among a key voting bloc two years from now.

The great irony of Tuesday’s election for the governor is that as much as he and other top Illinois Republicans avoided or ran away from their party’s presidential nominee, Trump and his strong showing Downstate is a big reason Rauner was able to cut into Democratic nemesis Michael Madigan’s supermajority.

He’s in a bit of a trick box. Team Rauner, like most everyone else, was not expecting this at all.

* Monique…

Democrats downplayed the losses, contending strong support for Trump in those [Downstate] districts helped boost Republicans.

GOP operatives say they did benefit from Trump’s popularity in some areas of the state, but said they were also able to fend off challenges in the suburbs where Trump did not do well. Republicans did lose one House seat near St. Louis, with Rep. Dwight Kay falling to Democrat Katie Stuart. But they chalked that up to Kay’s controversial comments about women.

Regardless, Republicans believe they’ve crafted a playbook that will prove valuable for 2018.

“We think there are two things to take away from this campaign: Bruce can protect you if you take the tough votes, and Madigan, for the first time in a long time, showed vulnerability when it came to protecting his members,” one GOP operative said.

That operative is right.

Trump did help the Republicans Downstate, no doubt about it. But don’t kid yourself. That ubiquitous anti-Madigan message was effective Downstate, plus it kept Madigan from picking up any suburban seats in a presidential year when Hillary Clinton pounded Trump in that region.

* I’ve also heard from plenty of Democrats that the Trump win will help them in 2018. Maybe, maybe not. But here’s a text I got Wednesday afternoon from a liberal friend of mine…

I’m sad, sickened and [angry] at every person who told me last night that this means good things for Illinois Democrats in 2018. If you need Trump as president to make you look good, it’s time to do some deep thinking about what you stand for.

Food for thought.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 10:47 am

Comments

Earlier this year, the Illinois Republicans held their state convention in Peoria. It was abundantly clear that the Republican elected officials and the delegates were divided. The delegates were more traditional and many of the elected officials were only nominal Republicans.

The Illinois Republicans will remain a minority party unless it harmonizes relations between its factions.

Rauner has some fence mending to do with Trump.

Comment by Peoria Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 10:56 am
Oof! Your friend is very, very right.

Right now, though, I’m just trying to find any silver lining and a Trump Midterm during the Governor’s race is about the only thing I can think of that doesn’t set my heart dancing to a conga of fear.

Comment by Chicago_Downstater Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 10:58 am
It would be swell if elected officials spent a few months governing before worrying how to save their tukkuses in 2018.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:02 am
I am not convinced that Trump will be any good to 1.4%. News reports said that Trump is thin skinned, vindictive and gets his revenge. I think the “support” that Trump got from 1.4% is going to come back and bite 1.4% in the butt.

Comment by Huh? Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:03 am
“But they chalked that up to Kay’s controversial comments about women.”

Good call. Trump voters would never vote for someone who says controversial stuff about women.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:05 am
=== Bruce can protect you if you take the tough votes===

What are these tough votes and when is that going to happen?

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:06 am
I agree with your friend. Also, I don’t believe the two things are connected.

Comment by James Knell Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:16 am
I think downstate Trump voters will forgive Rauner for not buying a red hat.

But it’s certainly true that, based on typical patterns for midterms, Rauner’s political team would have preferred Hillary Clinton to win.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:19 am
Dwight Kay lost big in 2008 (the first time he ran), eeked out a narrow victory in 2010, eeked out an even more narrow victory in 2012, did fine in 2014 and then lost this last year. That district is extremely competitive. It includes a high number of college educated people who commute to St. Louis and the western St. Louis suburbs for work. It also includes SIUE. The Madison County GOP just flipped the county board AND won the county executive office, so Kay certainly has issues far deeper than local politics or county party loyalties. I have known Mr. Kay since before he was elected and he is not always receptive to constructive criticism or direction. I do think that both Dwight Kay and Mike Babcock will be back in 2018 and could both win their respective districts. We shall see.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:23 am
===I’m sad, sickened and [angry] at every person who told me last night that this means good things for Illinois Democrats in 2018.====
What is he ticked off about? I doubt anyone predicting what will help us Dems in 2018 was actually hoping Trump would win. But he did so we need to look forward. But I do agree we can’t just be looking 2 years down the road. The ship is almost sunk and we some action now.

Comment by Been There Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:24 am
Rauner will hop on the Trump bandwagon just like Paul Ryan and every other GOP Senator and Congresscritter. There will be no GOP civil war. They own this now.

I’ve always thought that the best way to end this Red vs. Blue war is that one party needs to take control and do their thing without any excuses. There’s no more Obama veto, and probably no more filibuster in the Senate. Someone owns it at the Federal level. The war will continue in the Land of Lincoln.

Comment by Highland IL Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:36 am
Illinois Democrats need to rethink everything IMO.

We’re safely blue for now thanks to labor. But what if labor is killed as a political force through a SCOTUS ruling banning public employee unions or a federal right to work law passed by a GOP Congress that ends the filibuster or picks up a ton of Trump state Dem U.S. Senate seats in 2018? How does the Democratic Party function as a political force. Where does its money come from? How do they organize and GOTV?

It happened in Wisconsin in the blink of an eye once Republicans got total control. Look around us, folks. We’re bordered on all sides by red. It can happen here and I dont think the old guard of Dem leadership in this state is ready for it one bit.

Dems need to rethink everything. Including the handling of the standoff with Rauner. My theory is that 2014 Rauner voters won’t penalize Rauner one bit for his obstruction because Republicans don’t care that government is dysfunctional. They like govt to not do things or be as inactive as possible. Meanwhile Dems and independents want govt to function and will punish Dem politicians who fail to achieve govt progress.

Meanwhile, the fire Madigan campaign in 2018 will not be muffled by the noise of the presidential campaign by the noise of 2016 and Dems will not be boosted by Trump’s name at the top of the ticket motivating Dems to the voting booth to oppose him.

I hope I am wrong and the Illinois Dems weirdly cheering President Trump are right. I don’t think I am though.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 11:53 am
2018 is numerically a GOP year. Expecting a Trump backlash is a dead end. Senators running in 2018 were elected during the Obama reelection. That means the Democrats have a bigger job ahead, regardless of President Trump.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:08 pm
–Word–
Come on man, a whole month. You expect to much!/s

Comment by who Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:10 pm
By not standing with his party’s winner, Rauner made himself look ridiculous. Trump had a world of positions that Rauner should have used to his benefit.

Seriously, if Rauner couldn’t figure out how to find any common ground with his own party’s winning presidential candidate, why should we even pretend that Rauner can find any common ground with the winning Illinois democrats?

Rauner revealed himself as too incompetent to reach out to anyone, regardless of their political views.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:16 pm
With Trump in the WH, we don’t even know there will be an Illinois in 2 years.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:26 pm
=I’m sad, sickened and [angry] at every person=

Let’s stop the circular firing squad and give people a break for trying to find a silver lining.

Comment by chi Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:31 pm
Trump ran on a platform of issues that are important to labor, things like free trade agreements, getting rid of the tax on platinum plans, and immigrants that are filling jobs. I am not saying I agree with his rationale, but it did play well in areas with slow job growth.

Rauner, on the other hand, continues to blame unions and labor for all the state’s ills. I don’t think the Trump win will help him in the least.

Comment by A Jack Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 12:55 pm
Vanilla Man,

Rauner has good company looking “ridiculous”

Other than Senator Jeff Sessions, Governor Chris Christie and his running mate Governor Mike Pence, zero elected Republicans campaigned with Trump.

Senator Rubio spoke at the convention, but I don’t think he endorsed Trump.

No Kasich, Bush (all 3), Mc Cain, Cruz, Ryan, Mc Connell or any other establishment Republican would share the stage with Donald Trump.

I know Bob Dole said he would support Trump but perhaps you can name someone else who did.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 1:04 pm
VMan - to be fair:

1. There was no way in heck that Trump was going to win Illinois, and with everything Rauner put into this year’s cycle why would he risk throwing all that cash and all staff efforts down the toilet?

2. Rauner wanted to propel Comptroller Munger over the line. Would that have been possible if he had been a full-throttled support of Mr. Trump?

3. LP made a great point. I can count on one hand how many high-level GOP officials got behind Trump with a lot of zest and zeal.

Trump showed all of us. But count me as one of the many GOP staffers and advisers who was completely shocked/befuddled/worried when Trump pulled it off.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 2:11 pm
@TeamSleep - Don’t get your point #2. What would Rauner supporting/not supporting Trump have to do with support for Munger? Munger was gonna get tied to Trump without any intermediary because of the R on her name.

If he really wanted to propel her to a win he should have spent big money on her race before early voting started to get ads up early before all the noise of other races drowned it out. They lost a winnable race because of poor planning.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 2:19 pm
==I know Bob Dole said he would support Trump but perhaps you can name someone else who did.===

Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich immediately come to mind. I get your point, but there were more than you are suggesting.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 2:27 pm
Illinois has been swimming upstream from National and Midwest trends for quite a while now. Whatever applies elsewhere, sure doesn’t seem to apply in this Land of Make Believe.

Why Dem insiders (or whoever they are) think that 2018 is going to be a positive pick up year because of tradition, may be fooling themselves. The Speaker may be even more unpopular by then to the point of near political impotence. Maybe the Governor will be more unpopular too. What we know for sure, is that the Governor won’t be poor.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 2:30 pm
Friday - yes, he should have spent some of that cash earlier. But given how unpopular Trump was/is in Illinois - at least in the areas with the biggest vote totals - Rauner coming out in full-fledged support could have easily been a political death sentence for Munger before early/absentee voting had even started. Bush was extremely unpopular in areas north of I-80, and along those same lines candidates and officials were a tad more reluctant to show public support. This was no different.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 2:45 pm
Trump isn’t going to be too worried about Rauner. In fact, he’ll probably help him out gratis.

Why? He wants Rauner back in office for a second term, for re-districting purposes here in IL.

Comment by Anon Downstate Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 3:02 pm