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* Presidential results…
See How Illinois Party Votes Have Shifted: 2008 - 2016 - https://t.co/4Glq8GIJkN pic.twitter.com/HZ4ivL4vEh
— ILCampaign (@ILCampaign) November 17, 2016
The map key is here.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:17 am
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This map is not incredibly useful without a corresponding map showing shifts in population density. Whether Coles County went from blue to dark red is more or less useless without knowing how its population has changed relative to the rest of the state. Do we have any maps like this? I tried to do a cursory search and came up empty.
Comment by Empty Chair Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:20 am
In addition to population, I’d also like to see income shifts. I suspect that the darker the red, the lower the income (and level of municipal services).
Comment by Jocko Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:26 am
Wait til Keith Ellison takes over it will be redder than a Cardinals jersey
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:29 am
Never thought I would see day DuPage had any blue in in it yet alone vote Democrat in three consecutive elections
Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:31 am
It looks like the Obama effect to me. Stephenson County has always been solidly Republican. No Dems on ballot for state or local races.
Comment by very old soil Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:34 am
Illinois is not and never will be a conservative state. But it always was more red than many of you wished to believe. The 2008 map was the result of a number of factors, not the least of which was the fact that Obama - as Chris Rock called him on SNL: “A charismatic black guy in his 40s”, not to mention a native son - was on the ballot. Other factors included the staggering unpopularity of George W. Bush; the economic collapse; the wars in the Middle East; and, locally, the lingering effects of George Ryan on the state electorate. 2008 was a perfect storm for the Dems in Illinois. I suspect the 2016 map is much closer to the actual state of play in this state, and will be soon reflected in the partisan makeup of the Illinois General Assembly - hence, the fight to ensure MJM continues to control the legislative map.
Comment by JB13 Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:36 am
2008 to 2016, Democrat votes declined by 500,000, while third party votes increased by 200,000.
In 2016, 130,000 more votes were cast than in 2012, while third party votes increased by 190,000.
Gobs of people are still staying home.
Comment by Jeff Trigg Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:37 am
==Never thought I would see day DuPage had any blue in in it yet alone vote Democrat in three consecutive elections==
That district (especially the east side) is especially ingenious. The Senate seat is still in play, but the House seat on the east is meticulously drawn. It’s almost as Cook as Cook.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:55 am
Trigg has it right. The GOP vote was virtually stagnant in 2008, 2012 and 2016. The dropoff was among the Dems.
Did people stay home because the race was viewed as non-competitive? Because it was certainly that.
2008
Obama: 3.42 million, 62%
McCain: 2.03 million, 37%
2012
Obama: 3.02 million, 58%
Romney: 2.14 million, 41%
2016
Clinton: 2.98 million, 55%
Trump: 2.12 million, 39%
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:56 am
===The GOP vote was virtually stagnant in 2008, 2012 and 2016. The dropoff was among the Dems. ===
Considering there’s probably still some vote by mail ballots to count, the real Dem dropoff was 2008 to 2012.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 10:58 am
Looks like the ‘vote accordingly” message is picking up steam.
Comment by Thunder Fred Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:01 am
Presidential results, DuPage County
2008
Obama: 228,698, 54.7%
McCain: 183,625 43.9%
2012
Obama: 199,460, 49.6%
Romney: 195,046 48.5%
2016
Clinton: 226,577 54.1%
Trump: 165,808 39.6%
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:13 am
yes in looking at the maps for the last 4 elections the GOP vote has been within 100,000 votes and the Dem has been the same as well with the exception of 2008 election and I believe that would be because of Chicago home town boy on the ballot and a high turn out for the minority vote that was more than 2004 and before and even after…
Comment by Allen D Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:15 am
I’d like to see 2004 along side the other 3. We need to understand how much the Obama elections were outliers.
Comment by Anonish Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:24 am
Rauner’s behind saved by Trump.
Comment by anon Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:33 am
To expand on JB13’s “economic collapse, the Dow was dropping 500 points a day, and McCain’s response was “The fundamentals of this economy are still sound”…..oh, and Sarah Palin.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:41 am
The voters are sick of the same old tax, spend, and borrow routine, and want change, before the state sinks under a mountain of debt, that it can never pay off!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:46 am
Your eyes ain’t lying, folks. The Dem dropoff was Downstate, not in Cook and the Collars.
Cook County Presidential Results
2008
Obama: 1.61 million, 76%
McCain 482,395, 23%
2012
Obama: 1.49 million 74%
Romney: 495,542 25%
2016
Clinton: 1.60 million, 75%
Trump: 451,594 21%
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:50 am
40+ years ago, Milton Rakove, my former Political Science professor, predicted that as more Chicagoans moved to the collar counties, the percentage of Democrat votes would increase. If my circumstances are indication, he was correct.
Comment by Retired SURS Employee Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 11:56 am
I know there’s migration out of Chicago, but I am also curious if young people from central and downstate IL, are moving to Chicagoland area for better jobs is also a factor in this?.
Comment by Meh Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 12:00 pm
So riddle me this: if Downstate is increasingly Red and the Suburbs are increasingly Blue, why is GA leadership suburban?
It’s not like the GOP has to raise money anymore from anyone but Rauner and his crew.
Some Downstate legislators might want to ask The Boss about that before next leadership elections. They’re the ones providing the lion’s share of votes.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 12:30 pm
So the Democratic vote downstate has declined since 2008, while the statewide GOP vote is virtually unchanged. A question for the Democrats to address is where did their downstate voters go?
Comment by anon Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:08 pm
Trump will do absolutely nothing to help people downstate. Fools.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:13 pm
Exactly what are the Democrats doing to earn the downstate vote?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:27 pm
Chicago Democrats have taken Downstate largely for granted at least since Rod had a thing for Southern Illinois for him winning the 2002 primary. But even then he was all about screwing over university towns that could have been part of a Downstate Dem bloc because Rod needed to take from university funding to pay for his K-12 increases without raising taxes.
The rust belt type Downstate Dems in places like Galesburg or Decatur or Danville or a lot of the river towns just have no connection to the national Democratic Party the way they did when union jobs were plentiful and before those places were so hollowed out by global trade and mechanization. I guess the QC has stayed blue through superior party organization and history.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:01 pm
Thus, as central and southern Illinois Democrats evaporate, there will be more and more lifelong GOP legislator to go unchallenged.
Term Limits!
Comment by Winnin' Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:21 pm
– So riddle me this: if Downstate is increasingly Red and the Suburbs are increasingly Blue, why is GA leadership suburban? –
Might I suggest that downstate GOP members are better followers than leaders. Seats for life…and don’t rock the boat.
Comment by Winnin' Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:26 pm
–Might I suggest that downstate GOP members are better followers than leaders. Seats for life…and don’t rock the boat.–
In reality, there’s only one GOP leader. I’m guessing a Downstate legislator would follow Rauner’s marching orders and serve as a conduit for his money as well as Durkin and Radogno.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 5:14 pm
–Wait til Keith Ellison takes over it will be redder than a Cardinals jersey–
What are you trying to say? And why are all the dogs in my neighborhood barking?
Stereotyping Downstaters is uncalled for.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 5:16 pm
I’d like to see 2000 and 2004 to see the “before” maps. Obama had a truly unique impact on Illinois when he was on the ballot. My guess is that 2000 might look a lot like 2016, and the Obama years are the high water mark for Illinois Democrats.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 7:36 pm