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* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
Gov. Bruce Rauner’s people are crowing these days about more than just their net Election Day gain of six seats in the Illinois House and Senate. But there’s a microscopic ray of hope for the Democrats, too.
First, a little background.
Victory Phones is a Republican polling outfit that has been remarkably accurate here, predicting Rauner’s 2014 5-point margin of victory over incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn when nobody else did. Understandably, the Republicans love that company, and they spent over $400,000 with the pollster since the spring primary.
The firm’s last poll, taken the day before the election, had Hillary Clinton’s 16-point margin of victory exactly right. The pollster was off by just a single point in the U.S. Senate race. And it had Democrat Susana Mendoza leading Republican Comptroller Leslie Munger by 4 points—her final victory margin.
The pollster also tracked Rauner’s favorability rating through most of the campaign. Its poll of 775 likely voters taken Oct. 9-10 showed 36 percent viewed him favorably, while 50 percent viewed him unfavorably.
That’s obviously not good, but Rauner’s numbers have never been spectacular. This is no longer a Republican state, after all, and Rauner has been a controversial character. Back in June, Victory Phones had Rauner’s favorable and unfavorable rating almost even, with 43 percent viewing him favorably and 41 percent viewing him unfavorably.
So why are the Republicans not discouraged by that October poll?
That’s the wrong question. It’s what happened next that gives them reason for some optimism.
The day after that October poll was completed, state Sen. Daniel Biss, D-Evanston, launched a blistering $10 million advertising campaign against Rauner.
Biss formed a federal super PAC funded by unions and wealthy Democrats like J.B. Pritzker and Michael Sacks. His Leading Illinois for Tomorrow PAC kicked off its effort by airing snippets of Donald Trump saying nasty things about women, immigrants and others, repeatedly interspersed with a clip of Rauner saying he would “support the Republican Party’s nominee.”
Another spot, aimed more at audiences downstate where Trump was popular, used a cartoon image of Rauner and Republicans wearing suits “shaking down” Springfield instead of shaking it up, as Rauner had promised. “Springfield’s got real problems, but Rauner and the Republicans are making it worse,” the announcer said.
All told, Biss’ PAC aired seven ads on TV and online, particularly Facebook.
The last time Victory Phones tracked Rauner’s favorables was Oct. 30 through Nov. 3, just five days before Election Day.
The results of the poll of 1,376 respondents?
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 8:39 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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The Biss spots weren’t going to convince the Trump supporting Republicans of anything so it’s not a surprise that the numbers didn’t move. On the whole, Rauner’s numbers are bad news for him, even if the core Republican still stands behind him.
Comment by slow down Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 8:50 am
This is the ball game… from the link above…
===The results of the poll of 1,376 respondents? Rauner’s favorable rating was 36 percent and his unfavorable rating 48 percent. That’s pretty much right where he was before Biss’ ads began.
So, yeah, nobody on Team Rauner is jumping up and down with glee about where their guy is right now, but taking a big $10 million hit that failed to move numbers would allow anybody the tiny luxury of looking on the bright side. And as long as they still have a bright side, they aren’t going to give in to the Democrats.===
It’s not the messaging that is failing Democrats, what is failing Democrats is putting onus on Rauner at levels that are dropping, not staying level after a blistering media assult.
What Sen. Biss has done, and did, is show the benchmark of what needs to be “continued” in messaging (not 12 months worth of Ads) that continues to hold accountable Rauner.
The last Ad, putting into play the severe damage Rauner, personally as Governor, has done, will Democrats continue to message?
Rauner isn’t going to stop. Rauner isn’t letting up, even for 15 minutes.
The ridiculousness that the message needs to be “better” when in reality it’s the lack of continued messaging that has been what keeps Rauner “honest” IS what’s lacking shows a lack of acumen of why Rauner, without a message of governing, is winning day after day after day… after day.
Rauner is upside down and Democrats are failing at getting that message out? Maybe be a little less wonky and a lot more verbal in messaging what needs to be said?
Until Democrats get the PR messaging back where they make themselves heard, it’s just not hung up matter what’s said in a message no one hears.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 8:51 am
I think political ads in general just lost people this year. In the past, we would all complain about ads being negative and not about the issues. Now, they are not only not about the issues, in a lot of cases they are not even about the candidates in question. With lines like “Candidate X agrees with higher-level-candidate-in-the-same-party-as-Candidate-X 94% of the time”, I think everyone just started tuning all political spots out completely. I know I did.
Comment by BigDoggie Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 8:54 am
Rauner is upside down. He’s spent most of his time in that status. But Yikes. He’s closer to 50% favorable than the Speaker is to 100% unfavorable. The Speaker is baggage nearly everywhere outside of the city. The next theater of battle is the suburbs. In a cycle more favorable to the GOP, being a non Presidential year. It’s going to be an intense 2 years.
Comment by A guy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:05 am
Biss’s ad campaign failed because it offered no solutions, only a faint acknowledgment of the problems and the premise- Rauner and his billionaire friends were spending millions of dollars shaking up Springfield in order to lower their own taxes was ridiculous.
The part about accusing Rauner and his friends of stealing from the kids plates (from the party that has been doing that for decades) was way too hypocritical to be believed.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:12 am
Running ads attacking Trump in Illinois was like delivering coal to Newcastle. It was pointless and any residual benefit to damaging Rauner or Illinois Republicans was not worth too much.
Biss, Pritzker and Sacks ought to have studied the Electoral College map and put the same money into another state where the dollars could have made a difference. Piling on in Illinois was meaningless.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:15 am
Don’t forget, Rauner was on air with his term-limits ads prior to the Biss PAC buys. Given that Rauner’s numbers didn’t move significantly, maybe those two ad campaigns were a wash.
Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:33 am
===Given that Rauner’s numbers didn’t move significantly, maybe those two ad campaigns were a wash.===
If that helps you sleep better dude..
Comment by A guy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:35 am
Ignoring the statewide proxy battle of Rauner v. Madigan and the underperforming of Mendoza and Munger with the POTUS voting universe, but Trump downstate numbers puts into play…
… come 2018, there could be House seats flipping but Rauner going down to defeat?
It’s going to come down to which Democratic turnout model shows up, 2014 or 2016… statewide.
That, and the $100 million Rauner will spend…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:40 am
What A Guy said, plus more.
Rauner is indeed unpopular and is politically vulnerable, no doubt; for valid reasons. Madigan and Dems will naturally try and exploit that (although they must do better than those awful Biss spots). But Rauner’s unpopularity pales in comparison to how politically detested Madigan is with most voters. Madigan’s preferred practice of staying beneath the radar and being an unknown quantity is way over … and expect lots more of the anti-Madigan media barrage.
Suburban and downstate House Dems have much to worry about if they are continually being attached to Madigan.
Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:41 am
Rauner is going to be running statewide, Madigan will not be.
There could be the odd duality of Madigan losing seats in 2016 and Rauner is personally rejected statewide, given the eventual singing of the Rauner Tax that could be the largest tax increase in state history and the Rauner Cuts at the cost of closing social service groups to try to get a deal.
I still feel Rauner wins in 2018, today, but Rauner’s canary of Munger, even with the ridiculous underperforming of Mendoza is still real in a statewide-looking snapshot.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:47 am
A guy,
I’m sleeping well, thanks.
Just sayin’, Rauner was on air too, pushing a very popular issue. I’m guessing that was a good thing for him, otherwise he wouldn’t have made the buy.
Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:49 am
I’m not sure how much we should draw from LIFT’s ad blitz; even if it had been sustained, those ads were pretty bad, and once the target is at 36% approval, you need something pretty great to push him lower. I almost suspect that opposition messaging can’t do it. You need a scandal or an indictment or some major policy failure or something.
And 36% approval is a dangerous place for an incumbent to be, no doubt. But Quinn won in 2010 with numbers that weren’t that much higher.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 9:55 am
==Rauner is going to be running statewide, Madigan will not be.==
Sure. OTOH, Rauner’s has had some success tying Not Madigans to Madigan.
On the OTHER OH, that success has been pretty limited in statewide races so far. And unless the candidate for Governor is a House Dem, which seems unlikely, there’s some pretty easy ways for them to create daylight with Madigan.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:00 am
Even at 36%, Rauner benefits greatly from the lack of coverage by the Illinois media of fiscal matters.
Since he took office, there’s been an unprecedented bustout of higher ed and reneging on state contracts. The backlog of state bills will more than triple to $14 billion by June 30.
Yet all you read or hear in the media is “budget impasse.” It means nothing.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:19 am
Part II of trib article
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/watchdog/ct-illinois-group-homes-cila-investigation-20161120-htmlstory.html
Comment by Hey Rich! Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:50 am
Has anyone ever posted approval ratings on Madigan from in his district ?
He gets reelected easily every 2 years, but has a 17% rating statewide. I’d be real interested in seeing what the variance is between his district and the surrounding state.
Comment by Aim to Misbehave Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:54 am
Boy when Mike Madigan runs for Governor Bruce Rauner is well positioned to defeat him.
Maybe I’m forgetting some but since the turn of the century here are the three biggest wastes of money on the Democratic side that I can think of, 1) Blair Hull’s 2004 Senate run, 2) the money Hull spent against Madigan in the primary and 3) LIFT. Maybe they should have put Hull in charge of LIFT.
Oh, add IllinoisGO to the list. I can’t believe I almost forgot about IllinoisGO, lol.
Comment by The Captain Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:06 am
Rauner and his 100 million will put him over the top in 2018 and it will get Munger back into the comptroller office. His big check book will help get her numbers up to JBT level in Cook and Suburban Cook.
Comment by Cook GOP Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:02 pm
===His big check book will help get===
Stop making predictions.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:03 pm
I believe the Captain just announced he will be endorsing Blair Hull for Governor in 2018. And Senate again in 2020 (unless of course he decides to run for President).
Comment by Grand Avenue Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:07 pm
Oh no, I won’t be running for President. /s
Comment by The Captain Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:41 pm
==Stop making predictions.==
I’m not sure Rauner will win, but with a 36% approval rating, I think his money is the only thing that keeps him in it.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 2:25 pm
At the moment, Rauner has no accomplishments to run on.
Comment by Thomas Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:55 pm
Thomas- He may well have broken the union by then.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 4:38 pm