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Kennedy digs down into the 2016 numbers

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Illinois

* Scott Kennedy takes a look at some election results. Let’s start with Hillary’s Clinton’s Downstate erosion compared to past presidential years…

* Trump vote…

Outside the Chicagoland area it was a different story. Trump won the 90 counties outside the Chicago media market roughly 57-37, some in historically commanding fashion. Looking at the vote totals by media market what’s strange is that down the middle Trump’s numbers were downright ordinary. In the Rockford, Peoria and Champaign/Springfield/Decatur media markets his vote totals were very similar to Romney 2012 and all lagged Bush 2004 and especially Rauner 2014. Yet in the remaining media markets Trump’s numbers blew away the other Republican presidential candidates this century and either rivaled or surpassed Rauner’s 2014 numbers. Remember, Rauner won the state by 4 points (with very impressive downstate numbers) and Trump lost it by more than 16 so to rival or surpass Rauner’s performance in these areas was no small feat for Trump.

By the numbers…

Paducah, St. Louis and the Quad Cities all had hotly contested legislative races.

* Now, let’s compare results. First, Mark Kirk…

* Leslie Munger…

Kirk just got hammered this time, while Munger did substantially better in the collars and Downstate than Kirk and mostly kept up with Trump. What did her in was erosion in the collars (common in presidential years, except it was worse for Kirk than in the past) and suburban Cook County.

There’s more, so click here and read it all.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:31 am

Comments

I know I’m jumping ahead, but to me this spells trouble for Rauner. Quinn was a really weak opponent that Dems we not going to go to the mat for. Very doubtful that Rauner can repeat his Chicago and Cook percentages and seems unlikely he could exceed his downstate numbers. I don’t know if his money can save him unless he changes his strategy.

Comment by Anon 7 Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:40 am
The results in DuPage are interesting. I imagine this has more to do with a Trump candidate, than the actual politics in DuPage shifting more center/left. Thoughts?

Really, all Rauner has to do is maximize his Collar and Downstate votes and pray Cook County voters don’t come out to vote in huge numbers as they did earlier this month.

Comment by here we go Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:44 am
===I know I’m jumping ahead===

Yes, you are.

After Rauner’s victory and then Trump’s, nobody should yet be making bold predictions about 2018.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:45 am
I think its fascinating that Trump only did as well as Romney in the more densely populated downstate regions like Rockford, C-U, Peoria, etc. When you add to that that Clinton did about the same as Obama in Chicago, and modestly better in suburban cook and the collars, that means Trump was running up insane margins in the truly rural counties. Not a big surprise that the GOP notched all of their wins in Illinois in the same region. Can’t wait to see comparison of numbers at the legislative district level.

Comment by ILPundit Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 10:58 am
@here we go — In one national post election analysis, I saw that the single biggest factor predicting Trump’s performance vs. Romney was population density. For all the talk about working class vs non working class, the real divide here was urban vs rural.

Comment by ILPundit Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:01 am
Here, We Go –

Go back and look at DuPage’s numbers since BHO, DuPage is moving left, due to changing demographics. The fact is Lincon Park millennials are moving into DuPage daily. And, unfortunately, the DuPage GOP does nothing to defend its (former) turf.

Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:03 am
==I know I’m jumping ahead, but to me this spells trouble for Rauner.==

I mean, when the guy has a 36% approval rating, a lot of numbers are gonna be dicey for him.

==seems unlikely he could exceed his downstate numbers==

I’m not so sure; his approval numbers downstate are abysmal, but that’s where all his legislative gains were, too. Did Forby etc. try to tie their opponents to Rauner?

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:06 am
Trump carried downstate seats to victory not Rauner. Rural Illinois is hurting. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Rauner won’t get a second chance..

Comment by Liberty Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:07 am
Downstate IL is not a monolith and hopefully data like this serves as a reminder to Chicago Democrats who sometimes act as if anyone living South of I-80 might as well live on Mars.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:29 am
@ILPundit, I’m not sure population density is the best rationale here. In the St. Louis media market, where population density is probably just as good as Rockford or Peoria, Trump did 7 points better that Romney and Bush.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:41 am
Kirk’s numbers were just horrible. I wonder if Governor Rauner regrets clearing the decks and paving the way for Kirk to run without serious competition.

I know some of Kirk’s staff well. I like Senator Kirk and wish the staffers well. But man oh man was that a beat down.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:44 am
===Downstate IL is not a monolith and hopefully data like this serves as a reminder to Chicago Democrats who sometimes act as if anyone living South of I-80 might as well live on Mars.===

And if you’re south of I-64 you’re in another universe all together.

Comment by Southern Dawg Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:47 am
The numbers indicate that the suburbs are gradually becoming more blue. Proft is right that the GOP has no future statewide if they fly the white flag in the ‘burbs.

Comment by anon Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 11:56 am
Some pundits thought Democrat Delgiorno would be very close to Wojcicki Jimenez in Sagamon County and could possibly beat her, because of the union state employees.

She won by approximately 23 points.

Times are a changin’ and people have grown weary of the Dem policies and the condition of the state of IL. Most voters recognize MJM is the problem, not Rauner.

Comment by Piece of Work Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:02 pm
… and yet Munger lost statewide.

I guess we’re suppose to ignore that?

Ok.

Rauner will be running statewide with his numbers, today, upside down.

The +4 Raunerite seats wasn’t the surprise for me, it’s where the seats were.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:09 pm
Oh, and the +4 Raunerite seats were a surprise for the ILRaunerites too, given the Press Release.

That’s why what Kemnedy is looking at here is interesting stuff.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:10 pm
@The Captain — A fair point, but keep in mind the St Louis market stretches way beyond the metro east into a lot of rural counties. Also, the only Dem pickup was against Dwight Kay in a more densely populated part of the STL market.

In the end, we really need to see this broken down to the district level to get better understanding

Comment by ILPundit Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:12 pm
There are a lot of swing voting regions in downstate. Take Rock Island County for example, where most of the countywide incumbent Democrats hit almost 60 percent but Clinton won with only 52%. As someone posted, downstate is not a region that can be characterized with its mix or urban and rural plus diversity. One thing is clear - Democrats ignore the region at their own peril.

Comment by Downstate Democrat Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:29 pm
In my experience, people who live south of I 80 are often out of their minds with distrust of their imaginary “Chicago.” My wife has relatives who would not dare attend our wedding because we held it in Chicago. The parents of my children’s friends think all of Chicago is an impossibly dangerous mess. So to me it is a little funny to hear these complaints about Chicagoans not understanding anybody or anything south of I 80. When will the stoking of resentment stop? Right wing media is full of this idea that the poor flyover people are such victims, That we cosmopolitans are so condescending. Whatever. .

Comment by Histprof Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:32 pm
===That we cosmopolitans are so condescending===

You are. lol

That’s not in dispute here.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:33 pm
I dispute the fact that we’re all that cosmopolitan.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:43 pm
There seems to also be more to the rhetoric of “upstate-downstate” factionalism, and seems to be occurring in the inflammatory rhetoric is that “Democrat Means Chicago” and the diversity of the Democrats’ brand is being usurped by not political ideology but geographical resentment.

A good example was state Sen. Sullivan. Once Sen. Sullivan walked, the premise Democrats could keep that seat was fool hearty.

Granted, that seat was Sullivan’s seat more than a politically drawn seat when he ran, once the opportunity opened up with that seat, the geographical animosity and political party fervor made keeping the seat Democratic a huge ask.

Same with I-80 corridor seats that flipped? Kennedy’s hard work here makes looking at these flips important.

So DuPage holds serve, McAullife wins, while Kay loses… are the outliers of Kay and McAuliffe more about them than a possible geographical divide that pits “urban vs. rural” and seeing metro shading more blue, and less urban means more red, “Because Urban Democratic Elites”?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:46 pm
Munger will run again with Rauner in two years and win the office back. Rauner on the ticket will help get her more votes in Cook and suburban Cook where last time he did very good.

Comment by Cook GOP Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 12:49 pm
–Downstate IL is not a monolith and hopefully data like this serves as a reminder to Chicago Democrats who sometimes act as if anyone living South of I-80 might as well live on Mars.–

Very true. Democrats running statewide dont’ have to “win” Downstate, they just have to knock down the margin.

Same goes for Republicans in the city and suburban Cook.

Compare Rauner’s numbers to Munger’s across the regions, and you can see the advantage for a GOP statewide candidate running in an off-presidential year. Simply put, GOP voter are more reliable in off-years.

And the dude still got only 50.5% against Pat Quinn.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:02 pm
The dude got 50.5% in a very blue state.

Quite an accomplishment.

Comment by Piece of Work Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:53 pm
===The dude got 50.5% in a very blue state.===

… and yet Thompson, Edgar and Ryan continued 26 years of GOPs in the Governor’s Office.

How did that happen?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 1:56 pm
Also of note, Tooinka won in a very blue state and Cross, while losing, lost one of the closest statewide races in memory.

… in an off-year with a Democrat, Illinois’ native son no less, in the White House.

Off-years are different animals.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 2:02 pm
“Topinka”

dumb phone

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 2:03 pm
Tough deal reading the tea leaves two years out. Many facts can change, including the identity of the Democrat candidate for governor, the perceived success or failure of the Trump administration, and the state of the economy.

Judging from a distance, it appears to me that Madigan and Rauner each don’t see much to read into the recent election.

Comment by Anony Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 2:28 pm
–The dude got 50.5% in a very blue state.

Quite an accomplishment.–

Show me anyone who believes Illinois is a “very blue state” in off-presidential-year statewide races, and I’ll show you Bill Brady’s campaign team, making excuses.

Here’s the regional breakdown of the 2014 gubernatorial vote:

Total votes cast: 3,508,202

Chicago: 656,481 (18.7%)

Suburban Cook: 695,900 (19.8%)

Collars: 777,345 (22.1%)

Downstate: 1,378,576 (39.2%)

As you can see, 61.3% of the vote was cast Downstate and in the Collars. If that made Illinois a “very blue state” that year, and Rauner’s 50.5% against Pat Quinn a great accomplishment, then you’re having some difficulties with the language.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 2:29 pm
Willy, Thompson was first elected in 1976, Edgar in 1990. Illinois was much different back then.

Word, there are Dems living outside the city and suburban cook.

Comment by PoW Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:22 pm
Hmm, - Piece of Work -…

How do you explain Kirk and Topinka wins?

You think on that, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:27 pm
Thompson and Edgar got re-elected too. Ryan then followed Edgar…

Hmm. That’s 26 years.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:30 pm
And Willy, the 26 years thingy will NEVER be repeated, so enjoy the history.

Topinka and Kirk were pretty liberal R’s. Outliers do happen.

Comment by PoW Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:55 pm
Both outliers? That’s fun.

I think - wordslinger - has brought up often the quote, Mike Mafigan, Richard J Daley, off year elections and Democrats never getting the Mansion back.

You ‘nember that?

Seems that was pretty prophetic…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 3:59 pm
Cook GOP:

Hard to tell if what Munger lacked this cycle was help from Rauner at the top of the ticket. One could as easily see Munger as representing Rauner’s current position with the state-wide audience.

Comment by walker Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 4:03 pm
–Word, there are Dems living outside the city and suburban cook.–

What a scoop. Thanks for the update.

Did you look at any of the numbers provided at all? Can you see that “Downstate” has the largest regional vote total in off-year-elections, by far?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 21, 16 @ 6:08 pm
All Rauner has to do is run a Fear & Hate campaign in 2018.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 22, 16 @ 3:20 am