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Illinois on track to lose yet another US House seat

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Illinois

* Illinois peaked at 27 US House seats after the 1910 census and has been losing seats after every census since the 1940s. So, this is no surprise, but is still quite depressing…

TX on track to receive 3 more US House seats after 2020 Census for a total of 39 while CA remains flat at 53. Declines in Rust Belt #txlege pic.twitter.com/mQ7SlaukU2

— Mark P. Jones (@MarkPJonesTX) November 30, 2016

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:28 am

Comments

I found an IMA map from the twenties in some of my old company documents. That ain’t coming back either. Looking at the actual vote totals I can’t believe Valid won’t get another and Iowa won’t lose another.

Comment by David Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:33 am
Illinois has been losing seats after every census since the 1940s.

That was when Madigan took over right?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:40 am
Most of these gains are easily understandable. TX and Ariz with immigration, NC has the research triangle and some of the NE population, and Fla has some of the gains that the northeast is losing also. But Colo and Ore? That deserves a high level of investigation.

Comment by Like Water for Chocolate Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:46 am
It makes that 2020 Governor’s race all the more intriguing, just for the remap.

Maybe Quigley and Jan Schakowsky can get mapped into the same district. One can dream, anyways.

Comment by Rogers Park Scrap Iron Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:47 am
2018 Governor’s race I mean

Comment by Rogers Park Scrap Iron Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:48 am
The impact of redistricting reform for the General Assembly has been massively overstated, it’s a zero sum game, we start with 118 districts in the house and 59 in the senate and end with the same amount. It’s just a shuffling of the deck and reforming that process could make it more fair but would have a smaller impact than advertised.

However reforming the congressional redistricting process in this state would have a much greater impact. After each census we keep losing a seat, this is not a zero-sum process. However despite all the heat and light generated by all these breathless redistricting proposals none have included changing the way congressional boundaries are drawn. All of these proposals have been for General Assembly only.

Having said that, the current congressional map has probably produced more competitive congressional districts in Illinois than a computer would and the previous map was essentially the product of an agreement between Hastert and Lipinski at the expense of David Phelps. Not that they weren’t egregiously drawn, look how last decade’s Champaign-area district reaches down into Southern Illinois to run around the town where Phelps lived, but they’ve gotten far less attention than the GA maps despite being probably more deserving of reform.

It gives more credence to Mike Madigan’s assertion that the Republican support for redistricting reform has more to do with Republican political goals than reform.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:48 am
===But Colo and Ore? That deserves a high level of investigation===

The answer could be in the second sentence. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:53 am
The Midwest as a whole is not fairing well in this category.

This makes the next Congressional map even more important. Shimkus is going to have 40+ counties. That may or may not be snark.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:54 am
The list seat will be downstate.All the other Midwest states like Michigan and Ohio are gerrymandered to the max. NC has racial issues and just hold a special election for their whole leg next year. Based on this year’s vote this looks marginally good for the democrats.

Comment by David Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:55 am
produced more competitive congressional districts in Illinois

Do you really believe there can only be two competitive congressional districts?

Comment by Fav Human Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 11:57 am
That’s what our old Yankee predecessors get for bankrolling the interstates and water and power projects to enable the South and West to support large populations.

Most of them are still net-takers when it comes to the federal trough.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:01 pm
Word is so right Why do the Fed’s pay 60 % of Texas Medicaid and only 50 of Illinois

Comment by David Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:09 pm
My bet would be the states showing the most green, will in the next 20-25 years turn blue on election day.

Comment by Bemused Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:11 pm
The assertion that this will always only affect downstate is not necessarily true. There has been considerable growth in the St. Louis Metro East, which could offset losses in other, already-sparse areas of downstate. At some point, the is likely a bigger shift in Chicago population out to the burbs and possibly from the suburbs out-of-state, at least judging by what has happened with friends of mine in recent years. That net out-migration from little rural towns isn’t enough to move the needle compared to the numbers we’ve seen lately.

Comment by LessAnon? Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:34 pm
Wow Rhode Island minus 1…goes from 1 to zero.

Comment by Elbridge Gerry Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:35 pm
Oops…wrong information currently RI has 2

Comment by Elbridge Gerry Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:37 pm
In addition to losing one seat, our fair state may be constitutionally challenged into providing another Hispanic majority seat…you know, go from 1 to 2. Finally.

That could cause a whole different kind of pinch in the old map room.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 12:54 pm
-Lucky Pierre-

You do realize Madigan wasn’t even involved in state politics until the 1970s, right? Yeah, definitely involved right after he was born. /s

Comment by Stark Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 1:21 pm
Chocolate: If you are a Calif tech company and you realize that you need to diversity geographically, Colorado is where you go. I suspect that is the answer to Oregon too. (This realization is often very common after an earthquake.)

Because the Colo quality of life is highly valued by many, employers can pay less. There are a lot of federal offices because it is a place that will attract top talent despite the civil service pay scale. Ditto the big universities. That’s why there are 11 Nobel laureates in Boulder.

And it has been a mecca for educated people coming out of the plains states since WW2. Right now the place is filled with Kansas license plates. Not tourists: refugees from the Tea Party state. Kansas companies are moving their white collar jobs to Colorado, leaving the low-skilled people behind.
………………………………………………….

Sometime in the last decade one of the Springfield legislators made a pitch for IL having another world-class university at least as respected as Urbana. It just takes money. I bring this up because I think that is one of the best ways a state attracts talent that will want to stay, or at least they would want to stay if the school was near Chicago.

The other side of that is that Urbana and downstate are not where young grads want to stay. That is not fixable; turning Northern into a destination school for select subjects is doable. (Except for the fact that the state can’t even pay its utility bill.)

Comment by Redbright Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 1:28 pm
This looks like an overall diminishment of National Democratic power. It should be noted that most of the folks leaving the “blue” states are higher income, and from my experience were fed up with Dem mismanagement of their state and loss of economic opportunity. Californians and some New Yorkers may be an exception..

Comment by Illinois Bob Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 1:30 pm
== Do you really believe there can only be two competitive congressional districts? ==

Huh? 8, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 17 are all competitive under this map. Whether or not the parties are competing for them is up to them but all are drawn so that either party could win them. For example, Rauner won them all (most by double digits) but also Durbin in 2014 won all but 12 & 13 but those two districts are still competitive for Dems (look how much money the DCCC dumped into Ann Callis in 12 plus David Gill came within a hair of winning 13).

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 1:41 pm
As mentionwled above we will likely have to draw 2 majority Hispanic seats, but there is no way under the sun to squeeze out 3 majority African Amaerican seats the way the city’s population has shifted. I highly doubt that even now district 7 is still majority AA.

Comment by train111 Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 3:09 pm
Not to be argumentative, but Davis won his last two races with 59% of the vote. I don’t think anyone sees 13 as competitive.
And Nancy Pelosi’s election today doesn’t help, either.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 3:09 pm
== Not to be argumentative, but Davis won his last two races with 59% of the vote. I don’t think anyone sees 13 as competitive. ==

In 2012 under this map David Gill, who is probably far too liberal for this district, lost by 0.3% so yes, this district is drawn competitively. Whether or not the two parties compete for it doesn’t change the fact that it was drawn competitively.

Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 3:22 pm
The Captain,
Interesting to look at Rodney’s district for the last three presidential races. It looks like it’s definately trending red.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/data/ct-illinois-president-results-20161108-htmlstory.html

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 3:41 pm
Rich, do you know which area of IL will lose a U.S. House seat?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 30, 16 @ 6:32 pm
Colorado is one of the fastest growing states in the union. Population estimates as of 2015 show Colorado growing 8.5% since 2010. People all over the country are moving here, including a lot of Illinoisans.

Comment by Jerry 101 Thursday, Dec 1, 16 @ 11:01 am