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Positioning, practicalities and politics weigh heavily against a House override

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Illinois

* We covered this issue ad nauseum yesterday, so we’re going to focus on just one angle in this post, starting with the AP…

Illinois Democrats failed Thursday to override the Republican governor’s veto of $215 million to help the financially struggling Chicago Public Schools with pension payments as negotiations on an overdue state budget broke down again.

Using its Democratic supermajority, the Senate quickly voted to overturn Gov. Bruce Rauner’s move, but the House adjourned for the year Thursday evening without bringing the override question for a vote. Although the House has 15 days to try again, it’s unclear if there is enough support in the chamber.

Losing the money would be a huge blow to the finances at CPS, which crafted the current year’s budget expecting the funds. Without state support, officials at the nation’s third-largest school district have warned of budget cuts and in the past they’ve said that could include layoffs.

* Tribune…

House lawmakers have 15 days to take up the override, but the body is not scheduled to return to Springfield until Jan. 9 — two days before new lawmakers are sworn into office. Lawmakers could return before then, though it’s often difficult to round up people during the holiday season. Even then, it likely would take all 71 House Democrats to overturn Rauner unless a few Republicans buck the governor.

* Sun-Times…

The House has 15 days to try to override the veto, and convincing its members to push one through, albeit on a specially called session day, may be the best option for Mayor Rahm Emanuel and the families of 380,000 CPS students.

That favored political script would duplicate what happened last spring with legislation giving Chicago 15 more years to ramp up to a 90 percent funding level for police and fire pensions.

Three Republican crossover votes pushed Emanuel over the finish line, giving him the 71 votes needed to override the governor’s veto of the police and fire pension reforms and to dodge another sizable property tax hike.

Emanuel pulled off the surprise victory, only after burning the phone lines. The question is, can he do it again?

“It’s not impossible to do, but it’s not going to be easy, either. It’s a high threshold to reach. Funding for Chicago Public School students is a polarizing issue when it shouldn’t be,” said a top mayoral aide, who asked to remain anonymous.

“People understand that pensions need to be funded, which is why we were successful on police and fire. With CPS, it’s not just teacher pensions, but also the impact on the operating budget, students and teachers. That’s a difficult thing to vote against. That’s what we have going for us. What we have going against us is a governor who has chosen to play politics and use children as hostages to get the reforms he wants. And he has a lot of influence in this Capitol.”

* OK, so one of the three Republicans who voted with the city on that pension override was Rep. Dave McSweeney. But he’s standing with Gov. Rauner on this one…

After Cullerton’s Senate overrode Rauner, House Democrats face a more difficult task. Republicans like northwest suburban Cary’s David McSweeney vowed to support the governor, calling money for CPS without pension reform “a bailout.”

“If you just give the city of Chicago, CPS, $215 million, with no pension reform, you don’t solve any problems,” McSweeney said.

Rep. David Harris (R-Arlington Heights) also voted to override the veto of that city pension bill. He told me this morning that, without pension reform, he’ll likely be voting with the governor on the CPS funding override.

Rep. Michael McAuliffe, the only Chicago Republican in the General Assembly, might be counted on to vote with the city, but that means there’s maybe only one guy on the other side of the aisle who will stand with CPS.

So, the House Democrats better make sure they have everybody in town if they want to override the bill within the next 15 days. And, as I mentioned yesterday, scheduling a special session that everyone can attend during the holiday season ain’t exactly easy.

* Not to mention statements like these from February…

In a response to efforts being made by Chicago politicians to bailout Chicago Public Schools, CPS, State Rep. Brandon Phelps, D-Harrisburg, said Feb. 16 that he was launching a petition drive to garner community support for his efforts to oppose any type of Chicago bailout.

“It is frustrating that as soon as Chicago cries for help because they messed up their own finances that Southern Illinois is expected to pick up the pieces and bailout them out,” Phelps said in a news release.

“The money earned by hard-working residents here in Southern Illinois should stay here and not be sent up to Chicago bureaucrats who are just trying to line their pockets.” […]

Recently Governor Rauner announced his plan for the state to bailout the failing Chicago Public School (CPS) system, a move being criticized by state Rep. Dan Beiser, D-Alton.

“Bailing out the Chicago Public School system is a terrible idea, especially when we have so many other problems with our state budget and our schools are in need of greater investment,” said Beiser. “I have long stood against the idea of Chicago getting an automatic cut of school funding while downstate schools are hurting. I object to the governor’s idea to put local taxpayers on the hook for Chicago’s fiscal mismanagement.”

Beiser voiced his frustration that Governor Rauner is focusing on a CPS bailout, rather than addressing the budget crisis impacting all corners of the state.

Both of those guys are at the top of the ILGOP’s 2018 hit list. Everyone else on the list (and more, I’m sure) will have to be extremely careful about taking a vote like this.

In other words, without a deal really soon on pension reform, it’s not looking very likely at all.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 9:55 am

Comments

Madigan over the summer made his members walk the plank and vote for his budget - and they paid the consequences in November. Cullerton stayed patient all of last Spring, but then lost it all yesterday and made every target walk the plank on a Chicago bailout yesterday. Perhaps Madigan and Cullerton are reverses roles this cycle.

Comment by anon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:01 am
=== “The money earned by hard-working residents here in Southern Illinois should stay here and not be sent up to Chicago bureaucrats who are just trying to line their pockets.” ===

How about this? Southern Illinois would not pay any state taxes, and not receive any state funding? Would that satisfy them?

Comment by Anon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:07 am
Every municipality in the State is struggling with pension mandates over which taxpayers have ZERO control. Lake Forest just hiked water fees to come up with pension contributions. Why should any legislator outside of Chicago subject his or her constituents to pay for what we know was the Daley pension holidays. As Ford told NYC in the 70s it’s your problem. Though the president was more colorful

Comment by Sue Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:18 am
McAuliffe probably knows that he has to vote yes.

Comment by Amalia Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:20 am
In other words, it ain’t happening … there’s no real math for it.

Cullerton’s story for clearly breaking his word on the deal for CPS’ $215M - a comprehensive pension bill — is interesting but lame.

Because if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Comment by Deft Wing Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:24 am
Maybe that genius Goldberg can do pension reform too.

Comment by Obamas Puppy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:26 am
===McAuliffe probably knows that he has to vote yes.===

I hope he votes yes and that Governor Rauner isn’t vindictive, but I doubt it. How many millions did McAuliffe get from Bruce Rauner? How would McAuliffe like to see all that dough going to a Republican challenger, who can begin circulating petitions next August?

It’s going to be close to impossible to get 71 votes for this.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:29 am
Marion Il. just raised property taxes 16 percent to cover police and fire pensions. They have a large retail and food base and still had to raise property taxes to some of the highest in Southern Illinois. Before Chicago Schools get their money from the state the people that live there should pay more like the rest of us.

Comment by Nieva Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:29 am
===Because if you’re explaining, you’re losing===

… then the governor writing like a horrible movie spy treatment about vetoing a bill he wanted to veto anyway… Yep.

Rauner explaining away like a bad movie pitch is losing the argument.

To the Post,

McAuliffe isn’t going to override.

Dunkin isn’t going to override.

Rich made the case for the other “No” to overrides.

There is no path to 71. Today. No path. No 71.

A pension deal magically happens?

“BossMadigan.Com”.

There’s no 71 for CPS.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:34 am
I Understand that the override vote was done under an incredible time crunch. The part I don’t understand is that Madigan with his 40 plus years of experience, should have anticipated this outcome and had his supermajorities in both houses ready to act. You can point to ILGOP threats in 2018 all you want; to me it is a sign of weakness from the top.

Comment by Lech W Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:35 am
**Madigan …should have …had his supermajorities in both houses ready to act.**

First, Madigan doesn’t control the Senate. So the Senate supermajority isn’t his.

Second, if you’ve been paying attention, Madigan hasn’t had a working supermajority.

Comment by JoeMaddon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:41 am
Mike McAuliffe sold his soul, so he’ll vote how he’s told.

Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:43 am
Does the “Chicago Bailout” attack play in DuPage? Because Tom Cullerton flipped from a No in June to a Yes yesterday, and he’s up again in 2018 after a squeaker in 2016.

Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:45 am
Trib on its website just ran article stating how suburbs are getting virtually nothing from Springfield for education. Rahm stop trying to get the States taxpayers to bail your education system out. You are already getting more money as a percentage of the overall budget then any other school district. Solve the problem on your own or support the Governors reform agenda. Your incessant whining is old hat

Comment by Sue Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:47 am
Yes. It plays in DuPage. That’s why Cullerton losing his temper and forcing a vote yesterday was so short-sighted politically.

Comment by anon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:47 am
come on McAuliffe, vote your district and vote yes.

Comment by Amalia Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:48 am
=Why should any legislator outside of Chicago subject his or her constituents to pay for what we know was the Daley pension holidays.=

Because on a net basis the city gives more than it takes from the State of Illinois. To suggest that the State would be better off without the economic benefits derived from the City of Chicago and it’s surrounding metropolitan areas ignores reality. Good or bad as Chicago goes so does the state.

Comment by Pundent Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:48 am
===suburbs are getting virtually nothing from Springfield for education. Rahm stop trying===

Apples and oranges.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:48 am
- Lech W -

If you can’t “count”, I can’t help you. It’s that “simple”.

Tom Cullerton will be “fine” here…

“Why?”

When the “Rauner Tax” ever happens… The Raunerites forced to be “Green” will be hotter(?) than an override that won’t happen.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:50 am
Tom Cullerton’s opponent will oppose any tax increase. So the bailout will be the issue that Cullerton gave to use.

Comment by anon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:55 am
===Dunkin isn’t going to override.===

Ken needs a job. He might be open minded about the pension override vote, lol.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:57 am
- anon -

… then Cullerton is “off” on the Rauner Tax, something that will anger everyone.

The override isn’t happening, the Rauner Tax will have to happen to get a budget.

So, what else you got?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 10:58 am
===Ken needs a job. He might be open minded about the pension override vote, lol.===

How delicious would that be…

After all the hand wringing about lame duck deals, “Careen Gordon” type stuff… Ken Dunkin fielding job offers for a CPS vote.

Tasty, tasty, tasty, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:00 am
Doesn’t matter if override happens or not. Cullerton voted for a Chicago bailout after voting against it before the election. The GOP political folks know how to use that against him just like they used Madigan’s budget against the House members, even though that never went into effect.

Comment by anon Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:04 am
- anon -

Nah. The Rauner Tax will make this look like voting on a Stop Sign.

Plus, have you forgotten the Raunerite “Green” that got it passed? It “was” part of a deal, even Rauner said pass and hold it, he, as governor, was for it.

Nah. Rauner Tax. That’s going to be the ball game.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:07 am
We now live in the Trumpian “post-truth” world. Downstate legislators and Gov. Rauner can play demagogue and the press will continue to write “he said, she said” stories, since they no longer believe its their job to report verifiable facts.

But the truth is that Chicago gets a fraction of the education aid of the rest of the state. Why? Because the state funnels billions in teacher pension subsidies to every suburban and downstate district but none to Chicago.

What would those suburban and downstate school districts have to do if the governor cut them off from any state support on teacher pensions, like he just did to Chicago? It would devastate the budgets and classrooms of those non-Chicago schools.

Comment by Chicago Taxpayer Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:22 am
Thanks for the comment Chicago Taxpayer.

So many comments here that are fact-free or fact-lite. Maybe Rich could offer a post by someone with ALL the CONTEXT on this issue.

The media (Trib, et al.) sure aren’t going to do it.

Comment by Blue Bayou Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:27 am
When you don’t win; you rationalize. Carry on.

Comment by A guy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:33 am
When the GA sweetened the Police and FIre pensions in the early 2000’s (after 9/11) the net effect was crippling to the municipalities throughout the state. I do not see the point to bail out one area when there are so many other pension systems INCLUDING the SERS that needs help.

Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:42 am
===When you don’t win; you rationalize. Carry on.===

Then why did the ILRaunerite State Party refuse to say “Veto” but tried to make it about the override?

Governors own their vetoes, and while Rauner got to hurt more that one student this time, (Payton Prep), Rauner went out of his way to hurt thousands of Chicago Students and didn’t need Arne Duncan, just a Veto Pen.

- A Guy -, you should be happy, thousands of Chicago students will be hurt by Rauner’s Veto and no chance for an override.

Of course, Rauner pretending he had no choice tempers the dancing and singing for appearances, but no 71 is going to be found. Today.

So, Rauner is winning, why no victory lap, and all the blame from Raunerites? lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:44 am
Contrarian Democratic strategy -

1) Agree to the entire Turnaround agenda

2) Rauner & GA Republicans vote for “Rauner Tax”

3) Beat Rauner & regain supermajority in 2018/

4) Repeal Turnaround Agenda.

What could go wrong?

Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 11:45 am
Thousands of Chicago students will be hurt by the failure of Speaker Madigan and Senator Cullerton to expect something ($215 million) for nothing (not passing meaningful pension reform.)

I really don’t understand them pretending the veto was unexpected. I am sure it came up in the Leader’s meeting.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 12:50 pm
==- A Guy -, you should be happy, thousands of Chicago students will be hurt by Rauner’s Veto and no chance for an override.==

Sure. That’s what makes me happy. /s That’s sheer lunacy. Is there no other possible solution? I think there is. Are you happy that these kids have gotten the total shaft for generations? I don’t think so. But they have. Remember what this fight is about. The kids are getting pensions. You act like the teachers are caught in the exact middle between the kids and the pension dispute. I’d suggest the kids are on the far end of this one. They always are.

Comment by A guy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 12:54 pm
===Thousands of Chicago students will be hurt by the failure of Speaker Madigan and Senator Cullerton to expect something ($215 million) for nothing (not passing meaningful pension reform.)===

So… What you’re saying is… Rauner held the students hostage, then pulled the plug when Rauner felt, his interpretation, the demands weren’t met.

That’s what you want to go with?

Rauner held Chicago children hostage, then decided, “Meh, I’ll veto it, that’ll teach em?”

Good grief.

- A Guy -

Rauner, a Governor, did what only a governor can do… Veto.

Gov. Rauner chose to hurt CPS Students, not unlike the one student Bruce Rauner did hurt to deny them. Rauner’s daughter was denied, and yet, Rauner found a way to deny a worthy student in Chicago

Rauner’s veto is hurting students. That’s on any governor, any veto.

Rauner just chose, again, to hurt a Chicago student, this time by the thousands.

You should be happy, no snark.

“That’ll show Madigan! That’ll teach Cullerton. Now… How do I deny I actually did” this?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:04 pm
Let’s look at the impending sea change…
…from Politico in Nov. regarding the Trump Administration’s pick for Sec of Education,

“DeVos, 58, chairs the American Federation for Children, an advocacy group that has aggressively pushed to expand charter schools and school voucher programs that provide families with PUBLIC MONEY to spend on private school tuition.”

And, it appears that the Rauner’s and DeVos may run in the same crowd.

So what happens to the heavily-burdened Chicago school system if vouchers become reality? Just might blow a YUUUGE hole in the budget, like none evah seen before.

Won’t there be a mass exodus from many under-performing city schools, by families looking to offer their children a better, safer, healthier education?

Comment by cdog Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:12 pm
OW on what planet do negotiations end with one side getting everything they want (extra money for CPS) and the other side getting nothing they want (meaningful pension reform that at least one of the leaders supports).

Madigan and Cullerton have been playing the heads I win and tails you lose game for two years and the game is about to end.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:12 pm
===Madigan and Cullerton have been playing the heads I win and tails you lose game for two years and the game is about to end.===

You should be happy…

- Lucky Pierre -, this is your argument…

=== ===Thousands of Chicago students will be hurt by the failure of Speaker Madigan and Senator Cullerton to expect something ($215 million) for nothing (not passing meaningful pension reform.)===

So… What you’re saying is… Rauner held the students hostage, then pulled the plug when Rauner felt, his interpretation, the demands weren’t met.

That’s what you want to go with?

Rauner held Chicago children hostage, then decided, “Meh, I’ll veto it, that’ll teach em?”===

You should be thrilled.

Gov. Rauner’s veto and the pain to Chicago students, you’re saying “thems the breaks”

Why the pushback? lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:17 pm
Greg Hinz reports that John Patterson, Cullerton’s spokesman, underlines that “there was never any deal or agreement to not try to override a veto.” But he does not deny that CPS and statewide pension issues were linked together in the spring understanding.

So why did Cullerton answer that there was no connection? “There must have been a misunderstanding and perhaps he misunderstood the question,” Patterson told me in an email.

In an interview with Rich Miller at Capitol Fax, the president pretty much said the same thing: “Pension reform was the price for signing the bill,” he admitted to Miller, but “I was always reserving the right to override” a CPS veto if that deal could not be done.

You can’t be considered to be “holding something hostage” if both sides have an agreement.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:32 pm
===You can’t be considered to be “holding something hostage” if both sides have an agreement.===

Why then did the Governor choose “now” to veto?

If what you say is true, then where was the break? And, if what you say, which refutes your other arguments, btw, is true, what expectation did Rauner see as not met?

And if there’s an agreement, like you said, a Veto is still a Veto.

Rauner chose to hurt Chicago Students for a misunderstanding? You want to try that one out for a spin?

Keep trying. If you can find a way a governor doesn’t own a veto, Rauner and 49 other governors will wait with baited breath, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 1:39 pm
===Why then did the Governor choose “now” to veto?===

Now you’re just being goofy. That question has been asked and answered dozens of times here. C’mon man.

Comment by A guy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 2:49 pm
Then - A Guy -,

If Rauner chose to Veto, and hurt more than one Chicago student, thousands actually, as a governor, to teach a lesson…

Then the lesson is Vetoes Have Consequences…

… for Governors.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 3:00 pm
Willy, If only the CTU would take your view that this is “about the students”, maybe they wouldn’t be “hurt” for generations on end. The CPS system as a whole has been hurting students for decades. They have failed their students from top to bottom. A few elite schools and the other 98% suffer.
The Governor isn’t “hurting” them. But you love to characterize it that way. Just for kicks, Is anyone else hurting them or just him?

Because a lot of people don’t want to send needed resources from their districts to CPS to just make a lousy system more expensive than it already does. That hurts students and families too.

Comment by A guy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 3:41 pm
===The Governor isn’t “hurting” them.===

Gov. Rauner’s veto hurts Chicago students.

You keep forgetting that.

Oh, your ridiculousness trying to pivot to CPS and students… thst takes zero away that Bruce Rauner purposely Vetoed (can’t accidently veto, lol) and the Governor’s veto hurts Chicago students.

Period.

===Because a lot of people don’t want to send needed resources from their districts to CPS to just make a lousy system more expensive than it already does. That hurts students and families too.===

Shorter…

“Because… Taxpayers”

Chicago citizens pay taxes, or this code for something else?

Bruce Rauner hurt Chicago Students yesterday.

Just a fact.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 2, 16 @ 3:50 pm