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A look ahead to 2018

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Illinois

* After going over the top possible candidates for governor, Greg Hinz takes a look at some others…

Category two includes a variety of midrange Democrats. Each has a following but would have to scramble to widen their base.

For instance, state Sen. Daniel Biss, D-Evanston, reminds me of the late Dawn Clark Netsch with his focus on fiscal probity and thoughtful backing of progressive causes. He raised $10 million for an anti-Rauner TV blitz this fall but insists it’s not about money. “I really don’t like the theory of ‘we’ll pit our billionaire against their billionaire,’ ” he says.

Two downstate officials are known to be considering a run, too, U.S. Rep. Cheri Bustos of western Illinois and state Sen. Andy Manar of Bunker Hill. Both have been successful in regions that the Democratic Party statewide has all but abandoned in recent decades.

But Bustos recently accepted a job in House Democratic leadership that will be difficult to walk away from, even if she has Durbin’s rumored backing. That could make Manar, the former chief of staff to Illinois Senate President John Cullerton, the man to watch in a crowded field, especially if he’s able to consolidate labor behind him.

Sen. Manar is up for reelection in two years, so he’d have to give up his seat to run. I’m not saying he wouldn’t do that, I’m just saying that hard fact will definitely play a role in his decision-making.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:41 am

Comments

Biss and Bustos are up in 2018 too.

Comment by LizPhairTax Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:45 am
He also mentions Kurt Summers who could have an interesting path to the nomination if he consolidates the black vote in Cook County.

Comment by Curious Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:49 am
The only ones who thinks Biss raised that $10 million are Hinz and Biss himself.

Comment by Moe Berg Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:56 am
With Biss assuming Madigan stuck around - repeat of Quinn era

Comment by Sue Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:56 am
I like Manar. I grew up in that part of the state. Labor would support him, but my concern would be if he would be willing jump into the fray with Rauner. He can raise funds but not that kind of money.

Comment by Fixer Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:57 am
well, I guess you really did not know Dawn, because Biss is not Dawn. he might be bright in some ways, but he’s not Dawn smart. and she was a pistol as a person, fun and interesting.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:57 am
Manar would also be at the top of the target list in 2018, given the drubbing Mathis took in the House seat. May be he’s thinking up or out.

Comment by Rebecca Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:03 am
Part of what I take from recent elections (Trump and Rauner) is that starting out with a “wide base” isn’t all that important anymore. Neither of them, and especially not Rauner, had a wide base of support. What matters is the message and the personality and the means to get that message out, whether by paid media (Rauner) or free media (Trump).

So you need a combination of things- someone who has the personality to convey a popular message well, and then the campaign framework (talent or treasure) required to spread that message to the electorate. What is not required is a “wide base” at the beginning of a race. Now, a “wide base” obviously helps, but that alone will not get you anywhere without the personality, the message, and the means.

Comment by chi Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:03 am
–But Bustos recently accepted a job in House Democratic leadership that will be difficult to walk away from, even if she has Durbin’s rumored backing.–

Ridiculous. Why would it be “difficult to walk away from?” Did Speaker Eddie Munster repeal the Hastert Rule (might want to rename that “principle”)?

Does he no longer load his drawers when the so-called Freedom Caucus says “boo?”

Congress, for years, has been hopelessly useless, unless babbling on the cable TV box to raise campaign money is considered a noble endeavor.

Being in the minority in the House is the hopelessliest of the uselessliest.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:07 am
Unless the Dems can find a smart, fresh looking, pro-business/pro-union stance *This is called talking out both sides of your mouth*, and he or she must be able to raise a lot of cash- The Dems don’t have a chance in 2018.

Comment by Rocky Rosi Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:12 am
“Both have been successful in regions that the Democratic Party statewide has all but abandoned in recent decades.”

It’s key that the Democrat candidate from the Democrat Party (for your pleasure, not mine) does well in places that are not Cook County. Clinton ignoring Rust Belt states was campaign malfeasance. That kind of arrogance and complacency has to go.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:12 am
The catcher is absolutely right! (Moe Berg +1) Biss didn’t raise $10M because if he was capable of that, Madigan couldn’t have “bullied” him out of the Comptroller’s race. That $10M was raised by Madigan as a consolation prize for Biss; which he kind of squandered. Biss ain’t a state-wide player in anyone’s gameplan, except Rauner’s wishful thinking.

Manar too. He’s Simon-Durbin replication makes some sense but needs solid Chicago buy-in … and he just hasn’t paid his dues. It took years for Simon and Durbin to make meaningful in-roads up North.

Bustos has even less connectivity to Chicago/Cook County and almost zero name recognition.

Nope, the Dems need a rich person to run and fund himself/herself because Madigan’s going to need all of the money he raises to protect his caucus from a full frontal attack.

Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:15 am
The message is a much bigger problem for Democrats than who the candidate to carry it would be. Rich evil Rauner stealing from the poor to give to the rich always is the beginning. Then the following question of the Democrats, “OK, so how would you change things in Illinois?” is asked. What’s the answer? “We want to raise taxes to pay for all of the pensions we underfunded for decades, to protect those union state employees and their health care and retirement, and, oh, yeah! We should spend more on education and programs to help those that need it.” The Independents that voted for Rauner aren’t likely to opt for that higher taxes and more spending theme in order to make state employees and the Speaker more comfortable.

The message to get to the people that put Rauner into power in the first place is unclear. Add to that the prospect of battling Rauner’s millions and the onslaught of negativity we witnessed in ‘16, and guys like Manar are not likely to put their whole career on the line to run into that.

Comment by LessAnon? Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:16 am
Biss states, “I really don’t like the theory of ‘we’ll pit our billionaire against their billionaire.” Great - so he would just find billionaires to completely finance his run against a billionaire. That makes sense in some alternate world, I suppose, but it’s really no different in the grand scheme of things.

I always thought that Manar would run against Rodney Davis but after the last two cycles it’s apparent that it would take a wave and a ton of outside cash to beat Davis.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:16 am
Word - you are spot on. That’s kind of like the reports that Jon Gruden won’t leave ESPN to coach because ESPN pays him well and he has an “exclusive contract”. So?! If some NFL or major college team throws $10 million at him he’d jump. The same goes for Congresswoman Bustos. If the DGA promises her a massive fundraising infrastructure and assigns her staff then her leadership post isn’t so appealing.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:20 am
This is one statistic about 2016 that floored me.

No candidate for governor has earned more than 2 million votes. Not Rauner. Not Quinn. Not Blagojevich. Not Ryan.

If you can earn 2 million votes in an off-year November election, you win.

Here’s the kicker: there were 2 million Democratic primary votes this year in Illinois.

So the question for Democrats is which candidate is most likely to turn out that existing list of 2 million Illinois voters who just cast a Democratic primary ballot a few months ago?

Comment by Dan Johnson Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:24 am
I’m still on the fence about Bustos’ leadership role. It might be something real that she wants to pursue. Or it might be an “Everybody gets a trophy” kind of thing. Or it might even be resume-padding/connections-making to prep her for a run.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:24 am
Here’s what I read in this article: Sen. Biss is doing Sen. Manar’s dirty work v. Kennedy/Pritzger millionaire/billionaire. Biss and Manar are |this| close of allies in the senate.

Comment by Anonnn Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:27 am
Good to see Hinz being critical of Alderman Pawar. Pawar told Chicago Magazine that “I think we’re under taxed.” The negative ads write themselves.

Comment by 47th Ward Whig Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:33 am
Would much rather see Andy replace Jessie at SOS than trying build his name in Chicago and Cook in a losing effort.

Let him win statewide at the SOS before trying to take on Rauner and his money.

Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:39 am
I’m with chi. My opinion is that the playing field seems to have changed, and that a lot of the old calculus has to be modified. The Clinton people had that down, and lost. Part was the candidate, and part of it is that you have to have a clear populist message and be able to get the message out. In this state, there will be an uphill battle for anyone in the GA simply because of Madigan, although a senator has a more plausible way to distance him or herself. Right now people want change, and there has to be (1) a charismatic candidate; (2) a clear message that can be both positive and anti-Rauner; and (3) access to a heck of a lot of money. Name recognition now may mean nothing other than preconceptions - who knew Bruce Rauner before he ran and created his own image for the folks out there to be talkin’ about?

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:39 am
===Madigan couldn’t have “bullied” him out of the Comptroller’s race.===

Biss didn’t get bullied out of the race.

You keep trying to repeat this, and it keeps getting refuted making you look foolish.

Biss, politically, got out maneuvered, be it by endorsements or support. In the end, Biss on his own saw a path wasn’t possible and walked.

It’s been catalogued here. You are being willfully ignorant, fog what reason, I can’t figure.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:43 am
What Oswego Willy said!!!!! the Biss people were trashing Susana for months claiming he was such a personality and they just did not realize that she was actually well liked and has been for years.

Comment by Amaila Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:48 am
The bench is getting wider. It’s just not getting deeper.

Comment by A guy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:51 am
Research helps establish credibility … volume and prolificness do not.

With apologies to Rich for posting materials from Dec 8 (I think enough time has passed) and his convo with Biss:

“When I pointed out that much the same could be said of this era’s “Public Enemy Number One” Speaker Madigan, Biss did not disagree. He noted that when he first ran for the House, Madigan’s plan was “Anyone but Daniel.” When he decided to run for comptroller, Madigan “basically bullied me out of the race.” His credentials on the “Boss Madigan” front, Biss said, “are pretty strong.””

So, shut it, OW. Just because you talk, a lot, and repeat yourself, on top of that, does NOT mean what you say has any credibility.

Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:55 am
Other comments notwithstanding…

Biss was definitely bullied out of the Comptroller’s race. That should be beyond question.

Comment by A guy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 10:59 am
The problem for Manar is his support of a revision to the school funding formula. I’m glad he’s doing it, it may be the most important effort in the entire state… But it’s awful politically. Democrats will need to do much better in suburbs than Quinn did. The same suburbs that lose money in Andy’s formula. Chicago and some improvement in your downstate won’t be enough to beat Rauner. Also, I don’t get this idea that Manar would be vulnerable. He won his seat by like 15 pts 4 years ago… and he isn’t even on the BossMadigan.com website. Andy’s best bet is to keep plugging away and wait for the right opportunity.

If Biss had to drop out against Susana Mendoza, he can’t run for the big boy’s chair. And he didn’t raise the LIFT money, but he did have sign off on the strategy and the quality of the ads… which were awful. LIFT was essentially the Dem version of ILGO. A total waste of money. Biss also voted for school the change in school funding formula, which may negate some of his appeal to suburban voters.

Cheri Bustos is risk averse and a bad candidate. She couldn’t win a primary anyways. Her votes in Congress have been way right of her district. Any candidate with even a nominal amount of money can disqualify her to minority voters with her voting record.

Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:01 am
The problem for Manar is his support of a revision to the school funding formula. I’m glad he’s doing it, it may be the most important effort in the entire state… But it’s awful politically. Democrats will need to do much better in suburbs than Quinn did. The same suburbs that lose money in Andy’s formula. Chicago and some improvement in your downstate won’t be enough to beat Rauner. Also, I don’t get this idea that Manar would be vulnerable. He won his seat by like 15 pts 4 years ago… and he isn’t even on the BossMadigan.com website. Andy’s best bet is to keep plugging away and wait for the right opportunity.

If Biss had to drop out against Susana Mendoza, he can’t run for the big boy’s chair. And he didn’t raise the LIFT money, but he did have sign off on the strategy and the quality of the ads… which were awful. LIFT was essentially the Dem version of ILGO. A total waste of money. Biss also voted for school the change in school funding formula, which may negate some of his appeal to suburban voters.

Cheri Bustos is risk averse and a bad candidate. She couldn’t win a primary anyways. Her votes in Congress have been way right of her district. Any candidate with even a nominal amount of money can disqualify her to minority voters with her voting record.

Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:01 am
I like Bustos. Strong leader and nice lady. Very easy on the eyes, and her husband is the sheriff of Rock Island County. With the proper funding, she could become governor in 2018.

Comment by Ratso Rizzo Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:03 am
–..and he isn’t even on the BossMadigan.com website. –

How embarrassing, not to make Gov. Nixon’s Enemies List. He’ll just have to try harder.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:05 am
Has Kwame Raoul taken a walk on this race, and gotten out of the “mentionables” primary? He seemed to me like one of the most interesting potential candidates out there.

Also in a way too bad to hear about Frerichs, I thought he was an interesting possibility. “Not from Chicago” probably a plus, in the current day and age, let’s face it. Maybe he figures he’s got opportunities to move up in the future - and he does - but since everyone seems to hate politics these days, being newer and less experienced seems to be more of a plus with the electorate, not a minus.

Comment by ZC Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:06 am
And “basically”… what did I say that wasn’t true?

Biss got outmaneuvered, lost endorsements, could y get support.

It’s not getting “bullied”, if your can’t generate the support needed, even if Biss felt that way.

If Biss wants to seem as though he had the support and Madigan big-footed him by bullying, then Biss makes himself look weaker than what happened(?)

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:09 am
I hope Daniel finds ways to move up as he’s a great guy. Bright. Capable. But governor? Sorry, but not yet.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:17 am
So, someone who cops to getting “bullied” out of a comptroller primary looks in the mirror and sees someone with the testicular virility to go toe-to-toe with Rauner’s zillions?

There’s a dark-money lawyer-cutout in Cincy laughing himself silly at the prospect right now.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:18 am
The revision to the school aid formula may/may not hurt Sen. Manar in some (not all) suburbs in the general. But how about in a democratic primary? He’s the only elected official in the state that has backbone enough to propose a permanent solution to school funding. That includes helping CPS, other school districts that are majority/minority, and rural downstate districts where Dems can win with the right candidate. This issue fits him like a glove and it’s an issue that Pritzger, Kennedy, etc couldn’t deliver.

Comment by Retired teacher Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:22 am
The only possible message is rich bad, middle class and poor good. Followed by we need a progressive income tax that speaks the rich and also vastly increases school funding so we can cut your property taxes in half or more (and, unspoken, just coincidentally also has enough revenue to properly fund the pensions and other things the citizens want but don’t necessarily want to pay for). Add a little bit of get tough on crime in Chicago and bringing back jobs, and you may may a winning formula as long as you aren’t too detailed on the tax numbers.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:31 am
= He’s the only elected official in the state that has backbone enough to propose a permanent solution to school funding. That includes helping CPS, other school districts that are majority/minority, and rural downstate districts where Dems can win with the right candidate.=

Manar’s funding proposal was/is purely political. He manipulated the proposal to placate opposition (buy votes).

Pritzker has the money. Name recognition? Who knew the name Rauner until he started his run? Lots of money fixes that for you. And, anyone with a legislative voting record will get assaulted by the Rauner money machine. Better have thick skin in 2018 because it is going to be the ugliest of ugly.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 12:04 pm
==JS Mill: manipulated or not manipulated, here’s my point, the vast majority of Democratic primary voters in Illinois are living in school districts that are drastically underfunded. And Senator Manar is their champion.

Comment by Retired teacher Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 12:39 pm
I’m sorry, but no D from outside the Chicago area is running for any statewide office. Who’s going to do the fundraising, especially since neither has Chicago ties. Ask Andy what kind of money came in for that Chicago fundraiser.

Comment by Joe Schmoe Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 12:42 pm
Retired Teacher- In a Dem primary it may help. But the only thing Democrats care about is winning in the fall. You’re going to need the suburbs for that. Andy’s bill is very significant net negative. And that makes him too risky to be the nominee.

Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 1:42 pm
Just read the article - surprised Kennedy is relying on former Quinn staffers. Didn’t they run one of the worst campaigns in modern political history?

Bustos is a lightweight who works very hard promoting herself and raising lots of money. Don’t underestimate her. But there are some issues that haven’t been looked into … like how her son’s girlfriend just got a big job in the Quad Cities working for Senator Durbin? Politics as usual.

Unless Durbin runs, this governor’s race is going to be wide open without a clear front runner.

Comment by Whatever Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 2:01 pm
RNUG in 2018!

Comment by Archiesmom Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 2:57 pm
If not a re-tread, i.e. Dan Hynes, why not MENDOZA? Just won Statewide and a Latina. Couldn’t hurt running a woman against a Mr. Burns type of caricature that Rauner became.

Comment by qualified someone nobody sent Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 3:03 pm
qualified…

Really. You want to see that operation in action again? Without a huge wind at her back?

You do know she underperformed the rest of the statewide ticket by a mile, right?

Comment by A guy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 3:09 pm
Just thought of something about the Democratic Party. The casualty of the November election was the lack of an economic message for the middle class, thus opening the door for Trump in places like MI, WI, IA, downstate IL. Among the names being mentioned, Chris Kennedy has an unparalleled record of job creation. I think if he takes that message to every region of the state he’s got a real edge.

Comment by Downstate Dem Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 3:26 pm
== Didn’t they run one of the worst campaigns in modern political history? ==

No, but they did work for one of the worst candidates.

Comment by TF Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 3:26 pm
Whatever - Pat Quinn was his own campaign manager. Everyone else was just along for the ride.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 4:09 pm
==Everyone else was just along for the ride==

Not sure you could call that trek a “ride”.

Comment by A guy Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 4:31 pm
==Everyone else was just along for the ride==

Not sure you could call that trek a “ride”.–

Because with 50.5%, Rauner beat Quinn by a historic landslide not seen until Trump 2016.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 6:33 pm
Costello for governor.

Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 7:48 pm
At this point, Mr/Ms Yellow. A. Dog would get my vote.

Comment by peon Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 9:57 pm
Unless Democrats come out with close to Presidential year numbers it really doesn’t matter who you run, Governor still wins. Low voter turnout means the worry shouldn’t be who wins Governor but how many more seats the Governor will pick up for his 2nd term.

Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Dec 12, 16 @ 11:14 pm