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More on those anti-Pritzker robocalls

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“We will continue to highlight Pritzker’s ties to both Rod Blagojevich and Mike Madigan until he makes a final decision concerning a run for the Democratic nomination for governor,” said Aaron DeGroot, a state GOP spokesman. He said the robocall was being made to “Democratic donors, Democratic elected officials and Democratic Party activists.”

Christopher Mooney, director of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, said the state GOP’s effort — and the depth to its early opposition research — may represent a pre-emptive strike to Pritzker and other Democrats considering a challenge to Rauner.

“This could be an attempt at a chilling effect for people to read between the lines and see how much money they have and how willing they are to go negative so early,” Mooney said. […]

“Normal rules would say it’s a big waste of money, coming during the holidays, with fatigue from the last election, with it coming so far in advance of the next election,” Mooney said. “But it’s only a waste of money if money matters to you. Even if they get a little bit of benefit out it, maybe it’s worth it because they don’t care about the money.”

Meh. That Blagojevich-related oppo was all basically just based on Google [and LexisNexis] searches. The real stuff isn’t out there yet.

And making a few hundred, or even a few thousand robocalls costs almost nothing. Something like 2 cents per call.

But he’s right that Team Rauner is signaling that it’s more than willing to go negative extremely early. This is unheard of stuff here, campers. [ADDING: From Wordslinger in comments: The dark-money negative spots started on Aaron Schock in January 2013] And we’re in for two solid years of it no matter who gets in. Other potential candidates are surely paying attention.

* Sun-Times…

Many are questioning the unusual timing of the attacks — prior to official announcements to run. Democratic political strategist Pete Giangreco said links to Blagojevich by the party didn’t work in Democrat Tammy Duckworth’s successful run for Republican Mark Kirk’s U.S. Senate seat.

“I frankly think the Republicans are scared to death of J.B. Pritzker, and I think that they made up this fake narrative with Blagojevich because that’s what they do whenever they can’t beat somebody,” Giangreco said. “They tried the Blagojevich attacks on Tammy Duckworth, and she beat Mark Kirk by the largest margin that any incumbent senator has been beat by in Illinois since World War II. So if they want to keep talking about Blagojevich, keep going because we’ll keep beating them by record margins.”

The Republicans also targeted Democrat Chris Kennedy last week, criticizing his contributions to a super PAC to support Illinois House Democrats in their November campaigns. Kennedy, former chairman of the University of Illinois board of trustees and son of the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, is also considering a run for governor.

An advisor to Kennedy called the attacks on both Kennedy and Pritzker a distraction from the GOP’s record.

“It’s telling that the Illinois Republican Party and Bruce Rauner are going to be afraid to run on their record of having decimated our state,” the advisor said. “I think that is telling as to why they’re engaging in this kind of back and forth and digging things up. I think they should focus on their record at the end of the day, not talking about something that happened 10 years ago. Give me a break.”

Mark Kirk basically ran out of money and was running in a state that went overwhelmingly Democratic. Not a great comparison for 2018. Neither of those guys will be short on cash and the 2018 turnout will be different, although it’s not yet certain how different. If it’s another 2006 (the last Republican presidential midterm), Rauner better watch out. If it’s more like 2002, he’s got a good shot.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 10:53 am

Comments

–But he’s right that Team Rauner is signaling that it’s more than willing to go negative extremely early. This is unheard of stuff here, campers. –

The dark-money negative spots started on Aaron Schock in January 2013 — from that concerned Cincy lawyer, of course.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 10:58 am
This seems like a very high risk strategy by Rauner. Upside, maybe he scares Pritzker off. Downside, Pritzker starts spending money to torch Rauner’s already very low approval ratings.

In a blue state like Illinois, running is an off-year Presidential for Trump, it would seem the smart play for Rauner is to focus on building up his positive ratings, not baiting someone into handing him an anvil.

Comment by ILPundit Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:03 am
Rauner might have a shot if he has something more positive than his budget failures. He has a few justice reforms, but at this point I doubt if it is substantial enough.

He can try running on “I failed, but it’s Madigan’s fault.” But the Democrats can counter with Madigan has successfully worked with a long succession of Governors, both Democrat and Republican.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:04 am
Is there a chance that Rauner is trying to boost Pritzker with the oppo to drive up his name ID to help him win the primary because he thinks he’s the most beatable candidate? Maybe I’m overthinking it. Time to go to lunch…

Comment by Bedlam Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:06 am
Just when I thought it was safe to start answering the home phone without checking caller ID first.

If I didn’t already have a reason to vote against Rauner and his enablers, this continuous campaigning would be it.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:08 am
DeGroot is willing to sound silly. That’s on him. His professionalism is already out of his hands.

To the Post,

It’s not stopping. If anything, this beginning basement highlights that money is no object, and destruction is the only goal.

Pritzker better “learn” fast…

Breathe, in between barrages, but understand the barrages are NOT stopping.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:10 am
Rauner and Co. need to focus on getting him to do his constitutional duty. In the very near future, Rauner’s “Because Madigan” lament is going to sound very, very weak when the need for Federal Matching Funds come a-knockin’ for a whole slew of programs and projects. Possible case in point- without a budget, some kind of budget, can the Transportation Lockbox even be unlocked to possibly provide those needed matching funds? I’m sure Rauner is totally OK with letting homeless shelters and such close- those are leverage. But to lose out in millions of possible infrastructure dollars that, in his own words, “grow our economy”, because he wants property tax freezes and term limits??? Now that’s really “campaigning” (g intentionally dropped).

http://dailyegyptian.com/63847/showcase/future-uncertain-for-southern-illinois-homeless-agencies/

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:11 am
You would think that the Gov and his crew would give us a break from the negative rhetoric during the Holidays. Come on people! Enough already!

Comment by Go Away Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:12 am
ILPundit - There is also the chance these attacks make the difference between Pritzker running for governor, or Pritzker running for governor while also flooding the IL Dem party with Rauner level money. I think that is what really scares the bejeebus out of the Raunerites

Comment by Lincoln Clay Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:13 am
==it would seem the smart play for Rauner is to focus on building up his positive ratings==

That would almost certainly require getting a budget, which puts way too much power in Madigan’s hands. This is kind of his only play.

==He can try running on “I failed, but it’s Madigan’s fault.”==

I kinda suspect voters won’t care. They haven’t before, and Madigan won’t be on most people’s ballots.

==DeGroot is willing to sound silly.==

Such is the life of a party spokesman…

==Is there a chance that Rauner is trying to boost Pritzker with the oppo to drive up his name ID to help him win the primary because he thinks he’s the most beatable candidate?==

Yes, there is a chance. Not saying it’s so, but it’s possible that’s what they’re thinking.

That’s a pretty dangerous game, too, though.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:19 am
Who are these advisor/spokespersons for JB and Kennedy? They always seem to be off the record.

Comment by Handle Bar Mustache Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:21 am
Mr/Ms Handle: they are not off the record, just anonymous sources …could be the principle.
BTW will BigBrain attacks include the Pritzker bank scandal or would that force BigBrain to explain his role in the Atlanta Bank that went bust on subprime loans BEFORE the Bush depression hit?

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:24 am
Team Rauner seems to want to fight with everyone. I predict this “spoiled brat” routine will be the Governor’s undoing.

There is more than one opinion in politics and Mr. Rauner needs to learn that if he wants to salvage anything from his first term.

Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:27 am
Agree with RNUG, the GOP is opening wounds they should let scab over. I didn’t vote for any GOP candidates last month. They are chasing away their moderate non-political types with this nonsense. It will be hard to win future Governor elections if they are outnumbered.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:36 am
The non stop assault on everyone is a bit withering. I am simply tired of it.

Most people I know are not hard core into politics and are not paying much attention to it either, but I am sure it will probably have some impact. If my job wasn’t in public education I might have turned off to it completely a couple of years ago.

As someone who is largely non partisan (I don’t claim affiliation to either major party) center right on the political spectrum, I want to see balance. The status quo isn’t moving us forward in any way shape or form. Rauner is not in any way, and has clearly never been, interested in helping the average citizen. His presence on the scene has only exponentially worsened Illinois.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:37 am
Governor’s race aside, Rauner and the GOP legislators also know that Pritzker has the means to defend democratic allies (or even GOP allies?). Big question is would he use those means, and how effectively?

Comment by c'mon, man Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:40 am
One way this could backfire on Rauner: Pritzker decides not to run, but he’s so ticked-off by the attacks he gives tens of millions in contributions to a different (and better) Democratic candidate.

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:42 am
The non-stop campaign continues. The recent election settled nothing so the 2018 election is it; an all out street fight for Illinois’ future. It will be a no-holds-barred bloodfest.

Pritzker will have to decide if the money he inherited, versus the money Rauner made, is worth investing in an all-in battle. We already know Rauner’s team will do what it must to win. Will Pritzker do the same?

Comment by Deft Wing Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:45 am
I’ll say it again here. Pritzker shouldn’t worry about being tied to Blagojecvich, he should be concerned about being tied to Rauner in the Primary.

Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 11:50 am
== he should be concerned about being tied to Rauner in the Primary.==

You keep saying that, but why should he be? If appearing in a pic or serving on the same board as Bruce Rauner made that big of an impact on primaries, Chuy Garcia would be mayor of Chicago right now.

Comment by Lincoln Clay Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:13 pm
==“I frankly think the Republicans are scared to death of J.B. Pritzker, and I think that they made up this fake narrative with Blagojevich because that’s what they do whenever they can’t beat somebody,” Giangreco said.===

Pete Giangreco needs to read that aloud to himself to truly understand what a dopey comment that is.

Nobody is scared to death of JB. He’s perceived as a big one to slay early and decisively. It does send a message to everyone else. I still contend he won’t get in, but we’ll see. Having a lot of money almost always doesn’t mean you’ll really spend it. That’s one place where Rauner and friends have upped the ante. They have it and they do spend it. As much as it takes and then some.

Most rich guys are averse to spending money. Not sure why; they just are.

All this being said, I’m not fond of this brand of campaigning and never have been.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:16 pm
Has the Rauner owned and operated state GOP ever positively promoted the governor, his “accomplishments,” or his agenda?

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:17 pm
===Has the Rauner owned and operated state GOP ever positively promoted the governor, his “accomplishments,” or his agenda?===

The Turnaround Agenda Resolutions…

… passed by places like Madeupville and also touted simultaneously by “ck” and Rauner.

…

That went… well.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:20 pm
When the Republicans secured a majority in the General Assembly in 1994, Madigan went into a continual campaign mode against various freshmen legislators in swing districts. The mailings continued constantly until Madigan regained the speaker’s post two years later.

So it has happened before, but not on a statewide basis. Madigan’s attacks were targeted to individual districts.

Comment by W Flag Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:21 pm
- W Flag -

Noted.

Also note that the GOP had both chambers, and all the constitutional offices.

We are in divided government right now.

Rauner needs Democrats.

Edgar didn’t need Madigan. Edgar had Daniels, Edgar “had” Pate…

… ok, the Pate one was for comic relief, but the 1994 dynamics do not match today’s dynamics needed to govern.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:24 pm
Yikes Willy. As you conceded (I think) Edgar never had Pate for a second. He never really had Lee.

However, Madigan did have Edgar.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:44 pm
I would have paid money to see Rauner try and work with Pate. How would have Rauner reacted when Pate said No to something, adjourned the Senate left town and went duck hunting in Beardstown?

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:47 pm
Edgar “had” Lee.

Those districts and campaigns had Edgar and Edgarites working for Lee.

If anything… ANYTHING… Geo. Ryan had Daniels. That’s far more to the truth, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 12:48 pm
Blah blah blah

Why in the hell would JB Pritzker be scared of Rauner?

Really folks, all JB would have to do is look at Bruce’s accomplishments as Gov and he wouldn’t be scared…in fact it might cause him to throw his hat in the ring…

Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 1:20 pm
I think the smarter play would have maybe been to wait until Pritzker won — or even won the primary and then hit him with this.

I feel like all this may do is convince him not to run but give him added incentive to drop millions of dollars into races to defeat the GOP.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 1:58 pm
All the GOP knows how to do is negative look at the state races this last cycle. 40 plus million and know one knows what the GOP will do for Illinois besides not vote for speaker Madigan.

Comment by Publius Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 2:19 pm
Pritzker forces should return fire and robocalls about Rauner and Stuart Levine.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 2:30 pm
==I think the smarter play would have maybe been to wait until Pritzker won — or even won the primary and then hit him with this.==

Defining your opponent early is quite powerful, though. OTOH, Pritzker may not *be* the opponent, and now, if you want to hit him the day he does something- announces a run, wins the primary- you risk people filing this under “old news”.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 2:31 pm
The new President hasn’t even taken office. Robocalls already? It makes the Governor look afraid, very afraid.

Comment by Baruch Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 3:25 pm
== Geo. Ryan had Daniels.==

No argument there. None at all.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 4:04 pm
I don’t know? But is a smear campaign on a private citizen legal?

Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 4:28 pm
Lincoln Clay-

Ummmm… Rahm was running to be Mayor, not replace Rauner. And maybe I’m mistaken, but there wasn’t one ad ran by Chuy Garcia tying the two together.

You may want to take a look at the polls the Simon Institute ran. Rauner’s approval ratings among Dem voters is 17%. That’s just 6 points higher than the Speaker’s approval rating among Republicans. If you really don’t think comparing billionaire JB Pritzker to his friend billionaire Bruce Rauner is an effective line of attack in a Democratic primary… then I’m not sure you know much about politics.

Comment by Rahm's Middle Finger Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 4:59 pm
I live in the STL metro-east and had the robo call message in my voicemail. It was so out of left field. If the state party truly called only Dems, they should check their data; I have voted GOP in every primary, have never supported nor donated to Dems, and I’m a former GOP precinct committeeman. I barely survived the vitriol of the recent presidential election and hope this isn’t a sign of what the next two years will be like on the state level. Let’s dial it down a notch.

Comment by Stephanie Wednesday, Dec 14, 16 @ 10:26 pm