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But what if Drury does run?

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* Rep. Scott Drury is not the most popular guy in the House. Let’s all stipulate to that. He’s on the odd side, if you ask me.

But what if he does run for House Speaker?

When cornered, politically vulnerable House Democrats always tell reporters and constituents that they had a binary choice between voting for fellow Democrat Mike Madigan and voting for the Republican, so they went with the Democrat.

But if Drury runs, HDems could conceivably have a choice between voting for the Democrat Madigan and voting for a Democrat who’s also a “former federal prosecutor,” as Drury loves to refer to himself.

* People out there in Voter Land simply don’t know Drury like many Statehouse types do. All they’ll know is that some “reformer” Democrat stuck his neck out and the mushrooms still voted for Madigan, who is the most unpopular politician in this state by far.

That’s a precarious position for Downstate and suburban targets. And, don’t kid yourself, plenty of Chicago Democrats also hear about Madigan at the doors and at events.

Drury could make life seriously complicated for his caucus.

…Adding… Some of you may be missing the point here. I doubt at this point that Drury can actually get elected. He’s Scott Drury, after all, and just about every HDem member has already pledged a vote for Madigan.

This post is about the potential political consequences of voting with Madigan and against Drury.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:41 am

Comments

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! What i meant to HAHAHAHAHAHAH!!! C’mob, Anon. Pull yourself together! What i was saying was that if Drury…hahahhaha! Oh, man. I need get back to you.

Comment by Anon Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:50 am
And really, from a pure politics perspective, there’s a lot of upside for Dems to getting Madigan out of the Speaker’s chair.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:50 am
Rep. Scott Drury is not the most popular guy in the House. Let’s all stipulate to that. He’s on the odd side, if you ask me.

I agree, he was one of the only one’s who spoke out against the House Democrats ridiculous budget shenanigans on the last day of session.

Comparing the Democrats budgeting to a drug addiction.

http://jwcdaily.com/2016/04/27/julie-morrison-scott-drury-talk-state-budget-impasse-to-league-of-women-voters/

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:51 am
That was me at 9:51

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:52 am
I think your calculation is correct, Rich but discounts how unlikable Scott Drury is. The likelihood of him screwing this up himself in media appearances is high.

He constantly points out that he’s smarter than anyone else and he doesn’t know the house rules?

Comment by LizPhairTax Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:53 am
I hope he runs because it would show the true colors of many. My rep, Kifowit, would be an example. Does she stay a Madigan mushroom or does she actually try and move the state forward?

Comment by Big Muddy Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:54 am
What if Guzzardi gets into the race too? Or someone else?

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:55 am
HDems…

Understand. I mean, really understand.

Drury, no Drury, vote or no vote…

If Rauner is going after you yesterday, today, January… you vote for Drury… you are still gonna be targeted.

It’s fool hearty to think a vote for Drury will call off the dogs.

Plus, the Raunerites 100% need Madigan as Speaker for 2018.

Drury doesn’t help.

Why?

President Cullerton and his Caucus.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:56 am
A question ? Who has the stones to nominate anyone else ????

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:57 am
If Madigan actually loses the speaker position, who will everyone blame for the state’s problems?

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:58 am
Big Muddy - What makes you think voting for Drury would move the state forward?

Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 9:59 am
What if he does not run? Can the HReps nominate him anyway and use the lack of votes for him against the targets?

Comment by thechampaignlife Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:00 am
Really Big Muddy, you think this would move the State forward?

How many Dem votes would Speaker Drury be able to get on workers comp reform? Or local government consolidation? Or pension reform? And once those are done, a tax increase?

I’m not saying that Madigan staying as Speaker is going to be great for governing, but a Speaker Drury could easily turn into an unmitigated disaster if the only people who support him are GOP members and Tier 1 Tier 2 targets who have no interest in taking a tough vote.

Comment by Juice Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:00 am
==What if Guzzardi gets into the race too? Or someone else?==

Yup, that’s the *real* interesting question.

==It’s fool hearty to think a vote for Drury will call off the dogs.

Plus, the Raunerites 100% need Madigan as Speaker for 2018.==

Ah, but the collision of those two thoughts…

Absolutely, Team Rauner will try to tar you no matter who you vote for. And eventually, they’ll try to make whoever leads the charge against the Turnaround Agenda an albatross for every Dem in the state.

But boy oh boy, has Madigan ever made it easy on them.

A different Dem Speaker may be able to avoid that, or at least delay it. Drury may not be that guy. but…

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:02 am
===What if Guzzardi gets into the race too? Or someone else?===

The first round of voting, they should all get up to announce their candidacy a la “I am Spartacus”. When that fails, fall back on voting for da Boss in round 2.

Comment by thechampaignlife Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:02 am
In my opinion, Jim Durkin can arguably BE the most important, bar none, leader in the Legislative branch.

What does this have to do with Drury?

Durkin, if he moved autonomously, could make compromise possible and get some Turnaround Agenda items and a Budget a reality… and easily protect his targets, and… have frameable victories for Rauner to run on for his re-election.

Drury can make no such claim. At all.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:03 am
If Drury were speaker, zilch would get done for two years. I guess that is moving the state forward from a Rauner perspective.

Comment by A Jack Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:04 am
Didn’t Drury side with Rauner on the anti-strike, union arbitration bill?
If he runs for Speaker, wouldn’t he be seen as another Rauner puppet?

Comment by IRLJ Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:06 am
===If Drury were speaker, zilch would get done for two years. I guess that is moving the state forward from a Rauner perspective.===

No democrat is going to give in to the hostage demands. Whether we get a Madigan, a Drury, or any other Dem as Speaker… ain’t nothin’ gettin’ dun. Now if there were suddenly a different governor, different story.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:08 am
===If Drury were speaker===

I seriously doubt at this point that he can actually get elected. He’s Scott Drury, after all and just about every Dem has already pledged their vote for Madigan.

What this post is about is the political equation of voting with Madigan against Drury.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:09 am
Attention Gov’s Staffers: You can can’t stop shopping for Bruce’s Christmas present right now, Drury should be gift wrapped and dropped at the Rauner’s house.

Comment by Give Me A Break Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:10 am
Democrats have been handed a free crystal ball. They know how they will be attacked in the next election and have plenty of time to prepare for it. They could try to run away from Madigan, but I don’t think they could get far enough to make any difference. They may need to try to get Madigan to be perceived a little less negatively, though that’s a tall order. Madigan could help with a press conference at a human services agency, or with people negatively impacted, or with people laid off from a vendor being stiffed, or with a state employee who won’t be able to get by with increased health insurance, or a retiree who isn’t living in incredible luxury state pension. Pick a message and let it share the glare of the spotlight on Madigan.

Comment by Earnest Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:10 am
“Scott Drury voted to protect millionaires from paying their fair share.”

“Scott stood against a tax on incomes over a million dollars. I can’t support a man that won’t support the middle class.”

Plenty of room for cover on that issue.

“Scott wants to be Speaker of the House — and for some reason I can only think of the times he stood with Rauner to protect millionaires and hurt working families.”

Hopefully — the folks elected will even be better at shooting holes in supporting Drury.

There is plenty of cover to avoid supporting Drury. Drury is a Democrat that the Republican caucus would support for speaker, not one that the Democratic caucus would.

Comment by Anon Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:17 am
Just a thought from the baseball world that probably also applies to the political world…

“It’s better to lose a player off your team one year too early than one year too late”.

At some point the Dems got to start a rebuild.

Remember, on a national level, the last time this happened for Republicans was Newt Gingrich. Talk about a flawed candidate. But it worked out for them (eventually).

Just look at what both Chicago baseball teams have done regarding ‘rebuilds’. There’s lessons to be learned from their actions.

My .02, FWIW

Comment by Judgment Day Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:19 am
I guess I don’t think Drury really complicates the political calculus; a vote for Madigan, full stop, will get Dems hammered, regardless of if he’s even opposed.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:25 am
OW nails it. The cat is out of the bag. Rauner, et al showed their cards. It doesn’t matter who the HDems vote for, when or where or how. They will all be attacked for the next two years.

Divide and Rauner picks you off one by one.
Unite and Rauner tries to pick you off one by one.

What the advantage of dividing? Is Rauner prepared to edit his target list if a new Speaker is elected? Would he suddenly not want every seat?

Comment by illini97 Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:25 am
@Earnest

I agree that HDems can’t run far enough away from Madigan to make a significant difference. However, I seriously doubt there’s any way to rehabilitate Madigan’s image. I think they’re pretty much cooked on the Madigan angle.

They’ll need to either get some legislative wins for their constituents–which is highly unlikely–or they’ll need to further erode Rauner’s ratings and hope it’s enough to run against him. Unfortunately, upping the attacks on Rauner will just add to that arms race and detract from budget negotiations.

Didn’t think this could get much uglier, but I’ve been wrong about a lot this year.

Comment by Chicago_Downstater Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:26 am
===What this post is about is the political equation of voting with Madigan against Drury===

If Drury goes through with this, he should be expelled from the HDem caucus. He’s putting his colleagues in a very difficult position, purely for personal gain. He is being used by the Raunerites, willfully it seems.

He’s going to be a one-man caucus if he makes his colleagues vote against him.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:26 am
No way. Scott Drury’s prior support of Governor Rauner by voting against organized labor via the arbitration bill speaks volumes. Agree with OW that if Jim Durkin has the courage and desire, he could be the catalyst for real compromise and progress. Same can’t be said for the GOP Senate leader.

Comment by kitty Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:28 am
Sorry for the ignorance and if it’s already been brought up, but can the R’s nominate a D for Speaker?

Comment by Scott217 Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:31 am
What if Drury does it, loses, and then is promoted by GOP for US Attorney for the Northern District. It’s a job Drury wants and is qualified to hold.
That would have Madigan passing apple a little more quickly.

Comment by Reinweiler Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:38 am
Reinweiler at 10:38 for the win!

Comment by Downstate Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:44 am
==What if Drury does it, loses, and then is promoted by GOP for US Attorney for the Northern District.==

Then some would say that that looks pretty fishy!

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 10:45 am
Madigan passing apple a little more quickly.

This is really funny.

It would really make for lots of attack Ads on the Ds who stayed by Madigan.

Would also toast Drury’s elected career. Maybe he’s tired of being a mushroom, and is willing to take a Fed job in exchange for….

Comment by Fav Hum Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:03 am
“What this post is about is the political equation of voting with Madigan against Drury.”

If Madigan had to run statewide, he would have already been gone, probably many years ago.

If Dems continue to support The Madigan Strategy, I don’t think anything changes much, as it will be just more of the same $Msg from Rauner.

The only thing that changes is the depth of the carnage caused while these two mockers duel.

Comment by cdog Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:04 am
–”All they’ll know is that some “reformer” Democrat stuck his neck out and the mushrooms still voted for Madigan, who is the most unpopular politician in this state by far.”–

The jig is about up with rank & file Dems voting for Madigan as their leader & Speaker, and hoping their constituents don’t notice.

They’ll notice this time.

Comment by Deft Wing Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:05 am
That would be the benefit to the Rauner crew of Drury running for Speaker — putting vulnerable Dems in a trick bag.

–Comparing the Democrats budgeting to a drug addiction.–

Well, that bipartisan budget that the Gov. Feelgood pushed and signed has us mainlining now.

Fiscal Futures Project, from two weeks ago:

–We combined the most recent data available (as of the end of October 2016) from the Comptroller with our model to calculate the same four measures of Illinois’ fiscal condition reported in January 2015. Under current (baseline) policies we find:

1. A deficit of around $13 billion for the current year (FY2017)
2. A projected gap of around $14 billion per year for the next five years
3. “Legacy costs” for unfunded liabilities for retiree pensions and health care of $174
billion
4. Unpaid bills for services already provided to the state of $10 billion–

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:14 am
Even when Dems vote with Rauner, they are criticized by Rauner for the vote.

Don’t forget Gary Forby’s vote in favor of a Rauner appointee for the Labor Relations Board…it was used against him in a mailer.

Comment by Roman Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:26 am
The Democrats who don’t like Drury are like the Republican ilk who despised Peter Fitzgerald. Of course they won’t vote for him.

Comment by lake county democrat Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 11:50 am
Drury, um, No.

Comment by burbanite Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 12:21 pm
Oh boy do I want Drury to push for Speaker!!!

It will mean everyone will have to explain their vote against him, which will mean Drury will finally have a primary opponent! Look, he’s as disliked in his district as he is on the floor of the house for many of the same reasons, so a decently dressed ham sandwich would have a chance of taking him out.

Comment by Springfieldish Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 12:52 pm
I’m not convinced a vote against Drury would matter. If a Rep. is a target, a vote for Drury will not get Rauner to call off the dogs.

More interesting would be somebody like Ann Williams. If she ran, she could create major problems for any allegedly progressive Dems. In a primary, a vote for the Speaker and against Ann would be a hard sell in a lot of districts.

Comment by Gooner Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 1:07 pm
So Drury gets one vote, and Madigan gets 66. Drury gets painted as a Republican and is primaried in 2018.

If in two years more than 58 voters in the entire state remember that their Dem rep voted for Madigan for speaker over Drury I would be shocked.

This is fast becoming one of the bigger wastes of time.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 1:22 pm
remember that their Dem rep voted for Madigan for speaker over Drury

I suspect at primary time anyone who DID vote against Madigan would have lots of mailings/radio reminding the voters that that person “voted with Rauner/Trump”

Comment by Fav Hum Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 1:28 pm
Just for argument’s sake, if Drury was elected Speaker we all know it wouldn’t get us any closer to a budget if Rauner didn’t drop his war on labor. But the large majority of the voting public doesn’t understand that. A vote for Madigan instead of anyone else fits perfectly within the framework of Rauner’s “status quo” messaging.

Comment by Cubs in '16 Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 1:46 pm
Through a name like Jerry Costello at the conversation and it gets real serious quickly. Drury, not so much. R’s could get on the Costello train in a hurry.

Comment by Truthseeker Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 2:12 pm
Doesn’t matter who people vote for, the Madigan deal is in effect. It was stated by Pat Brady a month or so ago, “we started the anti-madigan stuff many cycles ago and it’s finally starting to stick.”
Madigan will still be on all the mail and pushed hard. The public wouldn’t even know if he wasn’t Speaker. There is no end game win with Drury it’s just another way to try and make folks look bad.
If Drury was smart, when a GOP nominates him for Speaker he refuses. Maybe at that point he’ll starting earning a little trust under the Dome.
Also the Rauner folks know if Madigan isn’t Speaker they’ll still use it against the Reps and Senators but they also know the best fundraiser in the party just got bounced. Anyone know how much money Drury raised for himself and his members?

Comment by DuPage Bard Friday, Dec 16, 16 @ 2:51 pm