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Expect lots of nastiness long before 2018 gets here

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

“This will be the most expensive race of our lifetime,” a Republican friend assured me last week about the apparently already begun 2018 gubernatorial campaign.

If Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker pulls the trigger and decides to run, we can expect that significant campaign spending could begin as early as next month — on both sides. And if last week is any indication, this is gonna be one nasty contest.

The Illinois Republican Party began running robocalls on Dec. 13 to elected Democrats, along with their party’s contributors and activists. The calls sought to tie Pritzker to imprisoned former Gov. Rod Blagojevich by using an FBI tape of Blagojevich spit-balling with an aide about getting Pritzker to endow a non-profit organization that the governor could run after leaving office.

The Pritzker camp responded to the robocalls with a statement criticizing Gov. Bruce Rauner for not passing a budget for two years and allowing “human services to be gutted.” The statement from Pritzker’s spokesperson also claimed the governor should have better things to do with his time than to “dredge up the crazy rantings of Rod Blagojevich.” That led to a quickie but rather large opposition research dump that sought to tie Pritzker even more closely to Blagojevich. There was no Pritzker response to that one.

Behind the scenes, Pritzker allies fumed at the absurdly early attack and warned that Rauner was “poking the bear” and would live to regret it. But Rauner’s people mocked Pritzker for being “thin skinned” and warned that last week’s oppo dump was “a very small appetizer.”

The aim here appears to be to either keep Pritzker out of the race or take him out in the Democratic primary before he can present a clear danger in the fall campaign with his estimated $3.4 billion net worth. Rauner has tons of his own money, of course, but he also relies on a couple of super-wealthy friends for additional tens of millions. Pritzker can conceivably fund a race all by himself, although he has recently been meeting with top labor leaders and other party honchos, as well.

So, we can probably expect more of this stuff from Rauner’s state party in the coming days as Pritzker makes his final decision on whether to run. Neither side has yet started a proper opposition research book on the potential Democratic candidate. Last week’s attacks were mainly based on basic Google and Lexis Nexis searches.

But if they’re going to try to snuff him out in the Democratic primary, Pritzker’s online comments about liberal Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders could eventually come into focus, I’m told. Sanders ended up doing pretty darned well in Illinois’ Democratic primary, so alienating a huge chunk of likely Democratic primary voters would be a smart play.

Pritzker, a loyal Hillary Clinton supporter, referred to the insurgent presidential candidate on Twitter by his initials “BS” and tweeted that Sanders was “outrageously McCarthyite.” Pritzker also retweeted an article about how Sanders “said lack of sex and resenting your mom could cause cancer,” pointed to favorable comments about Sanders by the National Rifle Association, referred to the losing Democratic candidate’s campaign manager as “delusional” and occasionally engaged Sanders’ supporters on the social media platform. And I didn’t even look at the guy’s Facebook account.
Illinois Democrats looking for Rauner challenger as Durbin stays in D.C.
Illinois Democrats looking for Rauner challenger as Durbin stays in D.C.

Some Democrats pointed out last week that the Republicans’ Blagojevich-based attacks failed miserably in the just-completed U.S. Senate race against Tammy Duckworth. But the Rauner folks say the issue kept Sen. Mark Kirk in the hunt during the summer, before he was overwhelmed with Duckworth cash in the fall. Indeed, Kirk was polling essentially even with Duckworth throughout the summer.

The Republicans also used the Blagojevich issue in several legislative races, including against state Rep. John Bradley (D-Marion), who once had a public fight with Blagojevich after the then-governor referred to him as a “wall flower” and a pawn of Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan. That well-covered spat didn’t matter to the GOP, of course.

“For anyone who has a real association with Blago — and I think our argument yesterday is that J.B.’s history was more than fleeting — it is a potent hit,” was how one Rauner guy put it the day after the robocalls were launched.

The question now becomes whether Pritzker is prepared to expose his children to this sort of nonstop mudslinging for almost two solid years. We will probably know more after the holidays. But don’t expect any lull in the negativity while we wait.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:13 am

Comments

The Superstars have been up and running on the 2018 campaign since Nov. 9. Swell.

Yet, somehow, that same crew hasn’t managed since July 1 to send one FY17 bill to the comptroller so that contracted Meals on Wheels providers can get in line to be paid for goods and services already rendered in good faith for nearly six months now.

All you need to know about the the priorities and objectives of the Rauner administration.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:22 am
I was (and still am) a Bernie supporter. I don’t give a bleep what Pritzker said about him. There are bigger fish to fry.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:24 am
It’ll be expensive because Rauner’s best asset is a yuuge pile of money.

When all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:25 am
The smell of fear is strong coming out of Camp Super Stars. Perhaps if they had a record to run on they would feel better about themselves.

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:26 am
Why wait? An ad tying Rauner to Scrooge would work well over the holidays. Scrooge: “Are there no prisons?” Rauner: “Chicago schools are like prisons.”

Comment by A Jack Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:30 am
I’m pretty sure that “Rauner is a failure” is all the Dems will need. The guys approval ratings have been swirling the toliet the past two yeara. The preemptive attacks on potential gubernatorial candidates only proves that he does not plan to run based on his success (or lack thereof).

Comment by dominionhinny Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:31 am
There should be a new tax levied on campaign expenses. Make it like the baseball luxury tax, anything over a specified level gets taxed. The more you spend over that amount the higher the tax levy. Dark money would all be taxed. All of this tax would go to pay down the backlog of unpaid bills, then to pay down the pension. liability.

Comment by spidad60 Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:32 am
Regarding the Pritzker-Blago connection and the Kennedy ad…

Speaking as a member of the millennial generation, political attacks that bring up a candidates past, no matter how distant or current, just isn’t all that enticing. I’m reminded of Rich’s City Club speech yesterday, where he recommends that the Democratic candidate for governor campaign on a positive vision for Illinois’ future. That is why Bernie Sanders did so well among my generation, as he talked about issues rather than other candidates. I feel that the negative attack strategy that we’ve seen for several years now has gotten old fast, a 20th century tactic that falls on deaf ears for up and coming 21st century generations. We’re tired of it. We long for substantive ideas and policy positions rather than being informed of what so-and-so did 10 years ago, or who so-and-so knows.

Comment by Saluki Matt Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:35 am
Great work by Rich, kayinv out realities that are being lost to those tuning out.

My take on all this, generally, is this…

Due in large part that Social Service groups feel the absolute need to blame “both sides” and the fundamental messaging that the Democrats are lacking, and couple that lack of messaging with the Press seemingly focused on the Raunerite laziness as “news”…

… Rauner’s Crew can easily, and I mean easily, navigate a years long campaign season fueled by the Democrat Diana Rauner, Richard Uihlein, Ken Griffin and orchestrated by the financial face, Bruce Rauner.

“I will bury her” is played out as the Raunerite political mantra as “BossMadigan.Com” completely takes away any trust in governing, purposely, while the burying daily of a “Nixonoan Enemies List” comitinues on the web, and the millions to continue these campaigns is far more important than governing, until social services close, state universities close, labor capitulates, and Diana Rauner can smile that the “business decision” worked to destroy her Democratic Party.

So, when the need to blame “both sides” is mixed in with unlimited cash and the passive maneuver to destroy the state for an agenda, Rauner will bury Pritzker, even IF the Pritzkers bailed out The Ounce for Diana, because Bruce winning is just more important the governing this state or to make the state better… because winning and burying and destroying is passively wining, and the blame can still be… on Madigan.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:38 am
Again, to Rich’s comments yesterday - If Madigan comes out and says, if Gov. Rauner is not re-elected, I will step down as speaker.

Put the GOP in the trick box.

Comment by Dee Lay Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:42 am
The Illinois GOP strategy of “guilt by association” for all Dem challengers could very well prove to be a double edged sword after a few months of, ahem, “Precedent” Trump.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:43 am
Also, I think it is misguided to think a politician saying something negative about another politician will cause an uproar. It is much worse to express words of admiration of a hated pol than to express words of disdain for a beloved one.

It is politics, after all.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:44 am
==Rauner’s state party==

Those words should be repeated every time the Governor claims he isn’t involved in any of this right now.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:47 am
It’s kind of amazing that, looking back, it’ll be likely that Rauner literally never stopped campaigning and started governing. For four years.

He’s very good at the campaigning part, mind, and he seems to have a lot more fun doing that part of the job.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:50 am
Fear and hate worked for the GOP nationally, expect it in the 2018 race.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:52 am
== The aim here appears to be to either keep Pritzker out of the race or take him out in the Democratic primary before he can present a clear danger in the fall campaign with his estimated $3.4 billion net worth. ==

Don’t forget about his 10 other family members on the Forbes 400 list worth an additional $26 billion or so.

Comment by Moby Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 9:58 am
I know how Rauner could be reelected.
Right now, he’s 180 from doing it.
Spend every dime you have Bruce and keep doing what you are doing right now.

As to Pritzker, I couldn’t care less. I’d vote for Quinn if it was between Pat or Bruce. My bar has dropped that low.

When you are a failed elected officia, reelections are expensive and disgusting, and usually lost.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:00 am
It stands to reason that if an incumbent politician has a poor record of accomplishment their reelection strategy is going to be primarily centered on attacking his opponent. Pritzger is the one guy who can spend as much money as Rauner can, something the Rauner campaign isn’t used to. Rauner will have a 4 year record for the Pritzer camp to dig into. You would think that as 2018 arrives the Rauner people would think that since there’s an election in the fall maybe it’s time to get some meaningful legislation passed that will be beneficial to the citizens who will be going to the polls later that year.

Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:08 am
We have been waiting for two years for the Democrats plan for Illinois Turnaround. They don’t seem to want to change a single thing from their disastrous 12 years of total control of state government.

If the current elected leaders can’t offer or agree on a budget between themselves,I look forward to hearing from those sitting on the sidelines. Should be fascinating to hear their vision of Illinois future and how we can improve our business climate.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:09 am
–We have been waiting for two years for the Democrats plan for Illinois Turnaround.–

LOL, and two years for the “revised” fiscal and economic projections of the governor’s agenda, beyond the cult-like chanting of shallow talking points.

If you ever get around to that, give us the down-low on how gutting state universities and community colleges, racking up a cool new $10 billion in unpaid bills to Illinois vendors and neglecting infrastructure are the path to attracting private sector investment. Seems counter-intuitive.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:18 am
Bruce, you squirrely looking dude, thanks for the Christmas present. you just made me like JB more with the reminder that he was critical of the (not a Democrat) Bernie. and you also reminded me that it’s time the Dems remembered that kumbaya doesn’t win elections. New Year, new effort to attack…you.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:19 am
== The aim here appears to be to either keep Pritzker out of the race or take him out in the Democratic primary before he can present a clear danger in the fall campaign with his estimated $3.4 billion net worth. ==

If that is the case, then I’d have a statement from Pritzker saying that he is still weighing a possible run for governor, but regardless of who the eventual Democratic candidate will be, JB will back that person to the hilt with any and all necessary resources, ie, the Pritzker cash is in it to take down Rauner. Frankly, he doesn’t need to back it up down the road because keeping one’s word about party loyalty was thrown out the top window of Trump Tower a while ago. Keep the Raunerites spending time and money being distracted from governing. Soon enough, people will look back fondly on the Blago years as a time of stability.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:31 am
===Again, to Rich’s comments yesterday - If Madigan comes out and says, if Gov. Rauner is not re-elected, I will step down as speaker.

Put the GOP in the trick box.===

It’s cute…but it would backfire terribly. First, no one would trust him to keep his word. Secondly, no one I’ve met with in the electorate is in the mood to be bribed for their vote. You want to see “splatter?” By all means, try this.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:44 am
===The smell of fear is strong coming out of Camp Super Stars.===

Better get yourself to an ENT specialist. Your olfactory sense is off.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:46 am
Rauner will suffer the same fate as Hillary Clinton. Neither can run on their own accomplishments. They’re entire strategy is to say the other guy is worse than I am. That won’t fly for a sitting governor. I know Rauner has a lot of money and they just picked up some house seats but Rauner will be soundly defeated if there is no budget for his entire 4 years. Because Madigan only has so much legs.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 10:53 am
OW I have long been ticked off about the “blame both sides” default of private social service agencies. You could chock it up to agency patronage being mostly republican leaning but I think that is a cop out. I think the real problem is that righteous indignation derived from moral character is gone from our society. It is pure individualism and Randian objectivism which guides our society now. Plain and simple. We are not a we anymore. Our society is an assemblage of self interested line units.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:00 am
This was the inevitable effect of Citizens United: billionaires vs. billionaires, and the rest of us on the sidelines. I hope Pritzker goes “all-in”; money is what it takes, and I love the idea that Rauner is burning thru his wealth and that of his friends, without a guarantee of ANY result. Rauner’s people ARE running scared - it’s plain from how they over-reacted so early. Rauner fears and respects no one except a fellow billionaire. Then that’s the weapon to use.

Comment by Newsclown Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:07 am
I do wonder actually if the pros on both sides are currently misreading this upcoming election. I usually hesitate to do that from the sidelines, the pros always have more data. But after the 2016 presidential election, I’m resolved that the pros on both sides are hardly infallible.

If Rauner and his crew really think their $100 million media carpet bomb is their ticket to reelection in 2018, they should review the glorious careers of Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton in 2015-16 and how much $$ and media saturation buys you when you’re a fundamentally unpopular candidate. Politics seems largely tribal now, alas, and demographics seem more important than TV ads, and I predict Trump will be way unpopular here in IL in 2 years, and Rauner’s (just slightly) on the wrong side of the emerging political-demographic divide in this state.

On the other hand, for Democrats, you need turnout in an off-year, way more than you need $4 billion. $$ only mobilizes voters on the barest margins. You need a candidate who actually is inspiring and popular among Dems, one that will make fence-sitting Democrats feel good about themselves and hopeful about the future and want to turn out. If Dems can do that, Rauner’s probably toast. Is either JB or Chris Kennedy really that candidate? They each have a slight Blair-Hull vibe to me.

I know the House and Senate Dems would like to have a gubernatorial candidate who can self-fund, and ideally give money to them too, but I wonder if this is penny-wise, pound-foolish.

Comment by ZC Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:09 am
- Honeybear -

I do understand the truck bag social services is in. I really do.

I also understand that blaming both sides is what Raunerites love because they can continue their destruction, purposefully, and giggle at the blame “both sides” as the cover they never expected to be so helpful.

It’s a shame.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:16 am
By all means, Bruce, fire and flail away at all your enemies, real and imagined. Lose lots of money in a cause that will only degrade you further. Go after Pritzker, et.al., and have a load of laughs. With your money, you won’t punch yourself out even by starting so early. The weariness of the onslaught will be on the part of the spectators - and a high percentage are already there. This could be a line in a B movie, but it applies to Rauner….”if you weren’t you, you really coulda been
somethin’”

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:22 am
If JB was unnerved by Sen Sanders position on guns that indicates to me he is going to try to run in part on an anti-gun platform. Because Sen Sanders had a very balanced position on guns.

That will of course be a big plus for the Governor. Back in 2013, the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute in its polling found 59.5 percent of likely Illinois voters thought controlling gun ownership was
more important than protecting the right to own guns with 31.3 percent thinking exactly the opposite. That poll was done not long after the Sandy Hook killings and support for tighter gun control laws increased 9 percentage points after the Orlando terror attack, then declined a month later.

If JB thinks running a campaign at least in part that promotes further gun restrictions I believe he is doomed coming out of the box.

Comment by Rod Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:30 am
Rauner, with apologies to Hamilton’s King George: “He has more money than me? I didn’t know that was a thing a person could do.”

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 11:57 am
Besmirching your competition and then call him thin skin, as you shed your skin while OODA looping

Comment by Rabid Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:22 pm
**This was the inevitable effect of Citizens United: billionaires vs. billionaires**

This actually has ZERO to do with CU.

Comment by JoeMaddon Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:30 pm
**found 59.5 percent of likely Illinois voters thought controlling gun ownership was
more important than protecting the right to own guns with 31.3 percent thinking exactly the opposite.**

So, 60% support more gun control and 40% oppose, and you think this is bad for Pritzker?

Comment by JoeMaddon Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:34 pm
==Better get yourself to an ENT specialist. Your olfactory sense is off.==

Nah. There’s a reason they’re hitting Pritzker in a way they aren’t hitting anyone else, and in a way that is messing up their timing.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:36 pm
Which is not to say that Team Rauner’s concern about Pritzker is rational. Or that, assuming it is rational, he’ll win. Someone once told me there’s 2 types of politicians: the paranoid and the defeated.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 12:39 pm
== So, 60% support more gun control and 40% oppose, and you think this is bad for Pritzker? ==

Unlike other voters, NRA supporters show up for EVERY election. That gives them influence beyond the raw number of potential voters.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 1:05 pm
The problem Joe is the polling data reflects the normal bump up in gun control support following a mass killing like Sandy Hook the time of the polling more or less. So think at best 50% of Illinoisans supporting greater restrictions on guns and 40% not wanting additional restrictions. Supporters of gun rights are more likely to vote based on the believed positon of a candidate on 2nd amendment issues than are supporters of gun control. JB will give up a lot to the Governor on this issue.

Comment by Rod Tuesday, Dec 20, 16 @ 2:54 pm