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* Rasmussen Reports calls Rauner “perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent in the country”…
As Reid Wilson of The Hill recently found, there are a striking number of U.S. state governors who never held elected office prior to winning their state’s governorship. About a quarter of them — 13 of 50 — won their first electoral victory of any kind to become the top official in their respective states. Those 13 governors are: Rick Scott (R-FL), Bruce Rauner (R-IL), Eric Holcomb (R-IN), Matt Bevin (R-KY), Larry Hogan (R-MD), Rick Snyder (R-MI), Eric Greitens (R-MO), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Doug Burgum (R-ND), Tom Wolf (D-PA), Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), Jim Justice (D-WV), and Matt Mead (R-WY).
While many of these governors did have significant experience in and around politics and government, they, like Trump, bypassed service in lower-level elected jobs prior to winning their current offices. […]
Unlike the 2018 Senate map, where Democrats will be hard-pressed to cut into the Republicans’ 52-48 majority because they already control 25 of the 33 seats up for election next year, the 2017-2018 slate of governors provides many opportunities for Democrats. Republicans currently control 33 of 50 governorships, while Democrats hold only 16 (there’s one independent, Bill Walker of Alaska). Of the 38 governorships being contested over the next two years, Republicans already hold 27 and Democrats control 10 (Walker is also up for reelection). […]
Now, on to the nine Republican-held seats where neither side starts as a clear favorite, the majority of which will be open seats.
Five of these seats are in the Midwest, a region that swung hard to Donald Trump in 2016 with the exception of heavily Democratic Illinois, where Clinton did about a tenth of a point better than Barack Obama did in 2012. It is no surprise, then, that Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) , a wealthy self-funder, is perhaps the most vulnerable incumbent in the country. […]
Republicans start the 2017-2018 gubernatorial cycle in an impressive but vulnerable position. The governorships being contested over the next two years combined with the tendency for the president’s party to lose ground in midterms suggests that the Democrats are positioned to start 2019 with more governorships than they hold right now, but nothing is guaranteed.
Unlimited money for Rauner and some initial liberal Democratic resistance to the idea of a self-funder for their own party could change things in a hurry, however.
* The Question: What other factors bode well for Rauner’s reelection?
Yeah, you may not love the guy, but please answer the question without snark. Put on your thinking caps.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:08 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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The list of potential Democrat candidates
Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:10 pm
The Rauner team’s relentlessness.
Comment by Indochine Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:14 pm
The continual and unchecked things Rauner says… that ignoring of what Rauner says versus what he does in many instances.
I actually think Munger losing only by 4 points bodes incredibly well for Rauner…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:15 pm
I really have trouble thinking of electoral assets besides money and Democratic baffoonery. And thus may well be sufficient, anyway.
So I’ll go with this, which isn’t something he has, but something he could get- a well-run state. If the temperature under the dome comes down, if deals get done and budgets get passed, if the chaos ends, he’ll be in a lot better position.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:15 pm
His ownership of the editorial boards.
Their direct influence is declining, but the headlines still look good in ads.
Comment by Keyrock Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:16 pm
Now that we live in the age of misinformation, a blissfully misinformed electorate.
Comment by Gruntled University Employee Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:16 pm
His high quality oppo research team.
Comment by Keyrock Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:17 pm
His biggest advantage is that of incumbency, the same as all incumbents. An incumbent’s name is already known; any challenger needs to fight both that and their rivals.
Comment by thunderspirit Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:17 pm
Not just the list of potential opponents but the number. I expect a large field of people convinced they can beat him, which in my opinion increases the chances of a less desirable and electable candidate to sneak through.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:17 pm
1) He has won an election and has high-stakes debate experience.
2) He and his team are good at staying on message, and are relentless opposition researchers.
3) If he were to agree with the Senate compromise while Madigan refuses, he’ll be able to make the case for being the voice of reason, rather than the chief obstructionist.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:19 pm
Madigan!
Comment by Grand Avenue Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:19 pm
Mike Madigan’s continued role in government will get Rauner re-elected. People believe Madigan is such a malevolent force that without a strong Governor taking him on, the State will really go to hell in a handbasket.
Comment by phocion Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:20 pm
Not joking: Because of all the crazy tax breaks he gets at the expense of the rest of us, and all the special treatment “investment” capital gets from the tax code, he’s sure to pull in hundreds of millions more before the election.
Comment by Albany Park Patriot Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:23 pm
As I pointed out to oveR confident democrats in September, there is only one organization that can save the GOP And organization is the Democratic Party.
Lack of message and assumption that people know the facts and will vote accordingly. People will follow a bad message and policy when there is a vacuum of message andmpolicy being discussed on the other side.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:24 pm
The mass exodus of individuals leaving Illinois and a significant amount of media coverage around the demise of the state may lead voters to rally around Rauner.
Comment by cgo75 Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:25 pm
Rauner’s willingness to say anything, no matter how untrue or misleading, almost rivals Trump. Add to that the relentless and uncritical support of the print media, along with all of his money, and he’s still formidable.
Comment by slow down Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:26 pm
If Rauner gets the same voter universe in the off-year he won, that will also bode very well.
Rauner is going to be incredibly difficult to beat. Anyone thinking otherwise hasn’t paid attention since 2013
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:27 pm
I know it’s your question Rich, but my hope is it isn’t a foregone conclusion, so I’m opting to answer the question with a slight modification:
What other factors may bode well for Rauner’s reelection?
If, during 2017, Rauner can make himself out as the Great Conciliator if what is being worked on in the House and Senate actually gets us through the impacted wall. That, and his endless campaignin’, which now looks like it’ll also be in the schools. Some of those students will be voter-ready by 2018.
Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:27 pm
He was elected as an outsider who wanted to “Shake Up Springfield”. I believe that his money and his team will be able to convince voters that he is still an outsider who has succeeded at shakin’ up the system.
Whether you agree with him or not, he has shaken things up. The voters eat that stuff up.
Comment by Old Shepherd Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:27 pm
Trump could hurt the NRCC and NRSC in 2018, but other than the 10th Congressional District there will likely be no other hot federal races in Illinois. There is no Senate race. Mike Frerichs is running for and Lisa Madigan are likely will run for reelection - and Jesse White might as well - and Susana Mendoza underperformed the national Democratic numbers as well as HRC and Senator Duckworth in Illinois. Rauner can focus on himself, Comptroller, key House races that were Tier 1 last November and a few key Senators whose terms are up in 2018 (Manar, Clayborne, Holmes and maybe Cunningham). All of that is a perfect storm for Governor Rauner to spend a boatload of his own cash on himself and make his own narrative separate of federal issues and potentially win by 5%. This is especially true if he is in agreement with Cullerton, Radogno and Durkin on the “grand bargain” but Madigan digs in his heels.
I say this in part because there is a HUGE dropoff in vote totals in the 12th and 13th Congressional Districts from 2012 to 2014, so even if Congressmen Bost and Davis draw legit challengers the vote totals trends work in the incumbents’s favor. And with Congresswoman Bustos taking a more prominent - and vocal - role it is possible that she may draw a legit challenger as well. All of those will take pressure off of Rauner.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:29 pm
The map of the entire state of Illinois is the only one no one can mess with. One big district.
Trump could likely accomplish a lot with both chambers in GOP hands. An advantage or disadvantage will occur based on what happens in DC.
It’s simply not true that Rauner is the “most” vulnerable in that group. The old math is…old.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:33 pm
The mere fact Democrats these past two whole years have let Rauner own the media day after day after day… What can Democrats build on message-wise that isn’t “new”?
Silence these past two years, that helps.
The Vertical Integration of
IPI
INN
Proft’s Newspapers
The radio commentary
The Rauner “ownership” of Editorial Boards
“Kass”, “State House Chick” and other shills masquerading as thoughtful.
The vertical integration will be huge to overcome.
The Democratic nominee will need a huge, and I mean huge Comm Staff and Comm Crew directing them.
Rauner has communications down.
Further,
As much as I ding Lance and his Crew, they have melded the V.I. and their own offshoot brilliantly, less the “Raunerite State Party” wing which really just ate pawns in all this.
Gotta give Lance and Crew and Staff props.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:34 pm
Blind partisanship from R’s who don’t realize Rauner is his own party, a bewildering inability by the D’s to form a concise message detailing his abysmal governance, and, recalling his original campaign, an ability of his and his team to make campaign ads that connect to the audience.
And, of course, riding the coattails of our supremely gifted, no-concerns-whatsoever President Elect, who will no doubt capture the hearts of the country by 2018. /s
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:34 pm
He’s smart and an incredibly hard worker. He’s got a message that resonates: Illinois is a mess and needs change. He is the clearest counter-force to the least popular politician in the state. He has a great command of messaging and cultivating perceptions. He is almost always very strong at staying on message.
He, like many politicians, is vulnerable if he has to run against “anybody else,” but once he has an actual opponent to run against, it’s hard to see him losing.
Comment by Earnest Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:34 pm
The very strong inability for people to self blame, self reflect and reevaluate. Clinton supporters are a perfect example. Instead of a reckoning and autopsy they doubled down and entrenched in their positions.
The Trump economic meltdown will not have started yet. Thus a larger lens in which to negatively view the Governor will be absent.
Ergo people will not say naturally that they made a mistake voting for him in 2014. That’s why all must be blamed on Madigan.
No Rauner has a huge chance
Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:35 pm
The economy. It’s a double edge sword of course. No single politician can control it but they can certainly live and die depending on how it goes. If Illinois can finally catch up to the rest of the national recovery then the Governor will be hard to beat.
Comment by The Other Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:35 pm
With Munger having about $5-$6million more than Mendoza I dont see how you think her LOSING by 5 points is suppose to be a good thing. You are comparing little known Mendoza to nationaly known Duckworth and Clinton who also had millions more than Mendoza.
Comment by Ok Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:36 pm
OW
With Munger having about $5-$6million more than Mendoza I dont see how you think her LOSING by 5 points is suppose to be a good thing. You are comparing little known Mendoza to nationaly known Duckworth and Clinton who also had millions more than Mendoza.
Comment by Ok Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:36 pm
==The mass exodus of individuals leaving Illinois and a significant amount of media coverage around the demise of the state may lead voters to rally around Rauner.==
Bad news for the state doesn’t usually accrue to the incumbent’s advantage.
==It’s simply not true that Rauner is the “most” vulnerable in that group.==
Unless there’s someone out there with a personal scandal that’s just absolutely hobbled them since day one, I think it is true. That’s not to say that his loss is more likely than not, just that every one else who’s running for re-election has a better shot at it.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:37 pm
He’s innately vulnerable because of things like he’s Republican in a state where Cook County & Chicago matter - electorally - most. There are other inherent disadvantages of running and winning a statewide candidacy as a Republican too, these days especially.
That said, his lack of any discernable record of meaningful accomplishment hurts too.
But he does have a perfect foil - Madigan - and he has loads of money so he may well overcome his vulnerabilities. Particularly so if the Dems put up a bad or weak candidate against Rauner, which is totally possible (for $50M reasons).
Comment by Deft Wing Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:37 pm
It’s always a helpful advantage to Rauner to have Mike Madigan up at the very same time. Regardless of the name of the opponent, it’ll be Mike Madigan many voters will think of opposing Rauner. Statewide…Rauner wins that one.
It’s going out on a limb, but I do think Rauner will even improve his numbers in Chicago a little and Cook County a little more than a little. In the suburbs and downstate, he’ll improve them too.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:38 pm
How about voters still believing Rauner’s schtick… the costumes, dropping the G, the selfies, the retail politicking in the face of what’s going on.
His numbers may be upside down, but he doesn’t yet have a foil to run against to keep his schtick.
That will be helpful
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:38 pm
a guy
“It’s going out on a limb, but I do think Rauner will even improve his numbers in Chicago a little and Cook County a little more than a little.”
Please place padding underneath that limb, just in case.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:42 pm
A Republican Federal Justice Department.
Comment by Come on Man! Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:43 pm
Mendoza was an awful candidate.
You forgot that, LOL!
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:45 pm
The democrats reelecting Madigan as speaker is the biggest gift Rauner could of received. Makes the reelection strategy pretty clear.
Comment by Very fed up Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:46 pm
The increasing probability of a tax increase soon. perhaps in tandem with a Trump tax cut, If the state’s finances start to look measurably better, helped by a lot of borrowing too, of course, he can claim he did what he was elected to do and needs another 4 years to finish the job. If the overall economy is doing better under the (natl) Repubs, voters might want to stick with them even at the midterms. We’ve learned not to underestimate Trump. I wouldn’t underestimate Rauner.
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:48 pm
Bruce will double down on crazy. If 90 counties went for Trump, it proves that people are not paying attention.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:48 pm
OK - check out my nugget about the dropoff in vote totals between presidential and non-presidential years. 5.4 million people voted in the Comptroller election last year. 3.7 million voted in the Comptroller election in 2014. That is a 31+% drop. How many of those who vote only in presidential years colored in or pushed a circle for Mendoza simply because she was in the same party as HRC? Those same people likely will not be voting in 2018 or will vote in much smaller numbers. Munger could run again and win.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:49 pm
If there’s a deal to end the impasse, he’ll proudly point to the TA items that passed and claim he put the state on the path of righteousness. He’ll call the income tax boost “the Madigan tax increase,” and pretend he had nothing to do with it.
If the impasse continues through 2018, he’ll say he bravely stood up to Madigan and stopped a tax increase.
I think he’s vulnerable, but the Democrats need a really dynamic, charismatic candidate, and so far they haven’t come up with one.
Comment by tobias846 Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:49 pm
=== That is a 31+% drop===
That’s usual. The difference is in who votes.
So, for instance, the 2006 off-year was very anti-Bush in Illinois and nationally. It doesn’t go the GOP’s way when there’s a GOP president.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:51 pm
Alfondo - normally I would agree with you but if Chicago and Cook County have to markedly increase property taxes (on top of the 13% increase from last summer) and the pension system in Chicago looks even more tenuous then Rauner can attempt to make the case that he wants to keep property taxes low and “fix” the pension system(s). Kinda spitballing there but it could happen…
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:51 pm
The fact that the “corrupt media”(/s)…nor anyone else…calls him out on his absence of governance.
Comment by Jocko Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:52 pm
1) Non-presidential election year. The electorate will be much more purple, especially without Trump on the ballot. As OW astutely noted, Munger narrowly lost in an election in which statewide Dems won BIG. That indicates a lot of centrists knew who she was, how she differed from other GOPers on the ballot, and, well, voted accordingly.
2) Rauner has positioned himself well thus far to largely sidestep the inevitable attempt to tie him to Donald Trump. (Of course, Trump will have a say in how that goes.)
3) Madigan and public sector unions. They will be scapegoated mercilessly in the coming months, even more than now. It may not be fair. But it will work with many voters - particularly if their taxes go up. Yes, Rauner will wear some of the blame. But ask yourself: Which party do voters associate with not just the will, but the *desire* to raise taxes? And, what benefits will the voters see in their own lives from this decision to raise taxes? It’s a hard sell to tell people they should vote for you, because you support the proposition that they should be made to pay $1,000 more in taxes every year because the state constitution says public workers get to keep their pension, health care and COLA forever and ever. Rauner, on the other hand, will say, yes, we raised taxes, but we are not letting Madigan and the unions get away with squandering that money on themselves and then coming back to demand more. Will any of it be true? Am I overly cynical? This is politics, right?
Comment by JB13 Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:53 pm
Rich - yes, I know, but I was merely trying to explain the Mendoza underperformance in relation to what could happen in 2018. JBT was drowned out in 2006 and even had a media blackout late in the game. It’s entirely possible that a Dem candidate who isn’t a self-funder could run into the same problem - especially if the TV rates are jacked up because of the Rauner ad buying frequency and spend thrift attitude.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:54 pm
Rauner also has one heck of a staff and GOTV operation in place. They did an awesome job in 2014 and 2016 (for the races in which they were heavily involved - such as Avery Bourne or Dale Fowler).
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:55 pm
Gonzo,
==Please place padding underneath that limb, just in case.==
I picked a limb close to the ground. lol
Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 2:55 pm
Democrats not running a viable a ethnic minority or female candidate will be the biggest boon for Rauner. Urban votes and female votes from the collar counties are going to be key in 2018. The Dems running a millionaire, especially inherited money, against Rauner isn’t going to increase Dem turnout in the slightest.
Comment by Jon Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:06 pm
Voters think that even in a blue state unchecked power for Cook County Democrat Mike Madigan has had disastrous consequences.
Exactly how would the Democratic nominee differentiate themselves from the Speaker’s vision for the state?
Rauner won every county except Cook and democrats will most likely nominate another Cook County Democrat to complete the trifecta of total control of state government.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:06 pm
Little has changed from what he said and ran on before. In fact, a case could be made that his position has be re-enforced by Madigan’s refusal to deal and his re-election by his caucus. A lot of what made him attractive to swing voters has not changed. What happened with targeted legislative seats in a year when the Democrats won the President and Senate races by double digits does not bode well - even with any traditional drop for the President’s party in the off-year.
Legislators complaining about how they have to wait for their pay just like vendors, no movement on term limits and continued calls for tax increases (justified or not) give Rauner lots of fodder to fight off any challenge. Add to that the list of possible challengers, and I’m just not seeing anything that spells a win - much less a route - for the Democrats.
Comment by LessAnon? Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:09 pm
“What other factors bode well for Rauner’s reelection?”
Reading the writing on the wall, striking quickie deals with AFSCME and with the GA on the budget in hopes that Labor will be as gullible as they were in 2014.
Comment by Nick Name Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:12 pm
–It’s simply not true that Rauner is the “most” vulnerable in that group. The old math is…old.–
No, the “old math” is Rauner’s best friend. Rasmussen has a case of out-of-town stupid — but at least he’s got an excuse, he’s from out of town.
Historically, turnout drops about 20 points in Illinois in off-prez elections, and the voters that don’t show up are overwhelmingly Democratic.
Let your fingers do the walking through the google. The numbers could not be more clear.
Clinton pounded Trump in the suburbs and won the state by 16 points.
Rauner beat Quinn handily in the suburbs, but got just 50.5% of the vote.
Clinton in 2016 tallied nearly 1.4 million votes more than Quinn in 2014; Trump, only about 300,000 votes more than Rauner.
I make that more than a million-vote swing, between prez and off-prez years.
As always, if the Dems can get half of those voters to show up off-prez, it’s katie-bar-the-door.
Someone might want to inform the Illinois Democratic Party chairman/3-D-chessmaster that he’s leaving a lot of chicken on the bone.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:13 pm
It is too easy to say “Madigan.”
Instead, I think last year’s $7 billion deficit Madigan budget is one thing that will really help Rauner. The rest of it is talk. That’s a concrete example and I expect Rauner to drop 49 of that 50 million making some reference to that particular bill.
Madigan really blundered with that one, and it may cost him.
Comment by Gooner Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:14 pm
I’d say the main thing he has going for him is that our state party is solely devoted to the house and uninterested in adopting modern statewide organizing and campaign tactics.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:21 pm
The only thing Rauner has going for him is maybe a couple losses in court. Losses, you say? Yes, because if he wins current issues in court against AFSCME and FOP 41, union members will be totally solidified against him. I know fellow union members who whole heartedly support Trump but will be voting against Rauner. Even most FOP 41 members, who are tried and true conservatives, loathe Rauner. If he wins in court, he will lose big time in the polls. If he loses, I still think he loses by the same margin as Munger—even with the $50 million.
Comment by Ratso Rizzo Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:24 pm
Tax increases aren’t automatically bad for candidates. And the one we’re hearing about will bring in billions in cash starting now. If Rauner signs off on a deal, along with a couple of Turnaround items, whatever, that cash can be spent rapidly to improve the state’s fiscal situation. What will Rauner’s Dem opponent be for? Raising taxes again hugely and turning Illinois into a European welfare state with the proceeds? Raiaing jail populations again? Big raises for AFSCME members? What?
Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:29 pm
The state’s largest circulation paper beats a relentless drum for Rauner virtually every day, with no comparable organ articulating the Democratic position. That said, I expect the Republican brand to be so trashed by the National story by 2018 that Rauner will have a real uphill fight
Comment by orzo Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:29 pm
Pardon, I meant to post these links of the 2016 prez and 2014 guv vote totals, by county.
For you 98 County Romantics out there, have at it.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/illinois/
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/map/governor/illinois/
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:35 pm
Bruce Rauner meet Mark Kirk.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:37 pm
He promised to spend his own money to push his agenda, and has.
He has been relentless against a foe who is known to be relentless.
His ability to govern his own executive branch has been sadly overshadowed by the political fighting for his agenda.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:53 pm
Blaming state employees is always a plus. Too bad Illinois voters don’t realize that state employees are the engine that keep the state humming. If AFSCME loses, Illinois loses.
Comment by akh Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:54 pm
–The state’s largest circulation paper beats a relentless drum for Rauner virtually every day, with no comparable organ articulating the Democratic position.–
If newspaper editorials had a significant impact on the undecided, Quinn never would have been in the ballgame in 2014.
Twenty years ago, the Trib’s circulation was 765K; today, both print and paid digital, it’s 440K, a drop of 42%.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:56 pm
>His ability to govern his own executive branch
Excellent point, and I agree it gets lost amid the politics. Criminal justice reform is another positive to run on.
Comment by Earnest Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:06 pm
–He promised to spend his own money to push his agenda, and has.–
Curious, I don’t remember any mention of reneging on contracts or bleeding Catholic Charities and Lutheran Social Services dry or gutting higher ed or running up billions in new debt during the campaign (shake ‘em up is not an “agenda,” Louis, it’s a catchphrase).
–His ability to govern his own executive branch has been sadly overshadowed by the political fighting for his agenda.–
Sadly, that shadow has apparently obscured the pile of bills stacking up from contracted Meals on Wheel providers that have not even been submitted to the comptroller to get in line for payment for the last six months.
You got your ticket punched, Louis. I’m sure the check will arrive on time in Lake Forest, as always.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:07 pm
Yes, the rapid down-spiral of journalism, its business model, and it’s quality leads to a very uniformed electorate. The quality of political coverage of Illinois State politics is shocking (present site excluded).
And the electorate - i.e. us - does not have a good record. Rejecting JBT over Blago II ? Or Blago I ? The list is endless. We (the electorate) help Rauner.
Comment by peon Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:11 pm
-Team Sleep- I think you have some very good points. Also if Rauner commits some more big cash and earlier then last election Mendoza is in trouble. Besides himself and a few state rep race’s he will be all in to get control of the Comptrollers office back. Mendoza is the weakest of all the state wide candidates and only one he will work hard to take out.
Comment by Inspector Gadget Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:11 pm
Rauner’s biggest strength will be the message that no one, democrat or republican, wants Madigan unchecked when reapportionment comes about in 2021. Therefore the only way to get fairness for Illinois is to have a republican governor who can veto a Madigan gerrymandered map.
Comment by the old man Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:15 pm
Team Sleep-
My impression is that people in Cook County feel hoodwinked by the governor. You make a good point, though, but I could see it spun the opposite way as well.
a guy
Phewf, I was worried about your safety for a minute
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:18 pm
Weak state political journalism (this site and a very few other sources excluded) is a major aid to any candidate deliberately vague on policy.
Comment by peon Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:20 pm
Given that IL Dem voters drop in the off prez campaign cycle, the Dems will need a candidate that can match Rauner on dollars, otherwise the rest of the ticket will be fending for themselves while the Gov candidates suck up the oxygen and Dem donor $. Rauner is certainly vulnerable but there still needs to be a Dem at the top of the ticket that can match him because we all know Rauner will spend whatever it takes to win re-elect and knock off Dems from House as well as Senate, plus statewide. He’ll probably give a whopping check to each of his slated statewide candidates to make the SOS, Comp and Treasurer very nervous.
Comment by Shytown Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:23 pm
In a state where virtually nothing is working right and the collective debt load is causing the collapse of governments you’d think Rauner would walk away with the next election. But the Dems in this state are in such a state of delusional thinking that I believe they will come out stronger against him because they can sense the threat he poses for the regular politicians and their feeding trough-the public. We haven’t hit bottom yet and unfortunately have a long ways to go.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:25 pm
Madigan is very much disliked in downstate Illinois.
Helps Rauner unless the Democrats put up someone from downstate who has very little or no connection to Madigan.
Comment by Federalist Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:28 pm
===Given that IL Dem voters drop in the off prez campaign cycle===
Absolutely not true.
The world wasn’t created in 2010.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:34 pm
1. Mike Madigan is still Speaker
2. Mike Madigan IS STILL SPEAKER
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 4:46 pm
The potential growth in middle class jobs under trump should help him. If those jobs come
Comment by A modest proposal Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 5:00 pm
50 million to paint that picture the way he wants it to look is the reason why he wins again. He won’t spend much on state wide offices other than comptroller. The rep race’s he will pick a few that look promising and spend there also.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 5:11 pm
==In a state where virtually nothing is working right and the collective debt load is causing the collapse of governments you’d think Rauner would walk away with the next election.==
Some of you guys have this weird idea that bad things that happen to the state are GOOD for incumbents.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 5:22 pm
==Absolutely not true.==
Indeed, the two Bush midterms were quite good for IL Democrats, but one could argue that there were extenuating circumstances in each that make them less than illustrative for 2018.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 5:25 pm
We don’t need no stinkin’ newspapers. Rauner\Trump will tell us what the truth is.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 5:59 pm
===Given that IL Dem voters drop in the off prez campaign cycle===
Absolutely not true.
The world wasn’t created in 2010.–
1992 Clinton: 2.5M
1994 Netsch: 1.1M
1992 Bush: 1.7M
1994 Edgar: 2.0M
—
1996 Clinton: 2.3M
1998 Poshard: 1.6M
1996 Dole: 1.6M
1998 Ryan: 1.7M
—
2000 Gore: 2.6M
2002 Blago: 1.8M
2000 Bush: 2.0M
2002 Ryan: 1.6M
—
2004 Kerry: 2.9M
2006 Blago: 1.7M
2004 Bush: 2.3M
2006 Topinka: 1.4M
–
2008 Obama: 3.4M
2010 Quinn: 1.75M
2008 McCain: 2.0M
2010 Brady: 1.71M
—
2012 Obama: 3.0M
2014 Quinn: 1.7M
2012 Romney: 2.1M
2014 Rauner: 1.8M
2016 Clinton: 3.1M
2016 Trump: 2.1M
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 6:07 pm
Free trade
Comment by Liberty Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 6:39 pm
akh - Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 3:54 pm:
Blaming state employees is always a plus. Too bad ===Illinois voters don’t realize that state employees are the engine that keep the state humming. If AFSCME loses, Illinois loses.===
Some of us old retired state employees 36 years - earlier union years, latter not would argue that employees keep the state running in spite of AFSCME.
Comment by justacitizen Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 6:55 pm
Rauner has two obvious things going for him: 1) a ton of money 2) anti-Madigan sentiment.
The Dems need to take at least one of those assets away by either: 1) running a self-funder, or 2) nominating a candidate who runs with an anti-Madigan message, too.
Comment by Roman Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 7:47 pm
- His ability to govern his own executive branch has been sadly overshadowed by the political fighting for his agenda. -
Well, I’m sure nothing overshadows the extra $125k rolling into your household, Louis.
With that extra income you can probably get 2 steaks at Fritz’s when you’re in Springfield and extra hungry.
Comment by Daniel Plainview Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 8:23 pm
If I knew, I wouldn’t say here. His people might be reading.
Comment by A non Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 9:27 pm
Expect Rauner to throw everything against the wall. It’ll be the Munger and Kirk campaigns on steroids.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 12, 17 @ 10:31 pm
Years of balancing budgets as a CEO, a salesman that can sell anything. The ability for spontaneous response to any question that needs embellishing
Comment by Rabid Friday, Jan 13, 17 @ 7:42 am
The responses to Atsaves are regrettable and unacceptable, but to his point, it would be very interesting to see the Governor come out with some metrics proving that his executive agencies, which he controls absolutely without needing any permission from the GA, are doing a better job for the people of Illinois after 2 years. Serving more customers? Disposing of more cases? Handling more consumer complaints? Collecting more fines?Doing it all more cheaply? The numbers would be very interesting to see, I think. And to the original question, this is certainly something the Governor could run on. But unfortunately for the Governor, I don’t think the numbers would be all that great.
Comment by The Real Just Me Friday, Jan 13, 17 @ 8:54 am
==But unfortunately for the Governor, I don’t think the numbers would be all that great.==
I think the fact that he doesn’t already mention it a lot rather tells the tale. And I mean, it’s not like his executive agencies have been free of drama, it’s just been overshadowed by his budget crisis.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Jan 13, 17 @ 9:26 am