Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Unsolicited advice

Posted in:

Illinois

[The Senate’s grand bargain] plan isn’t perfect, but no compromise ever is. The governor’s budget office says their plan isn’t balanced, so more work definitely needs to be done.

In public, the governor has been doing his best not to derail the Senate’s proposal, but nobody really knows what he’s doing behind the scenes. Madigan hasn’t said much of anything, but nobody expects him to just accept something from the Senate and gleefully put it on Rauner’s desk.

To my mind, the key to getting something done right now is in the hands of House Republicans. They were, after all, the caucus that asked the governor’s budget office to analyze the Senate’s appropriations plan. Rauner’s budget folks projected a $2.3 billion deficit for next fiscal year.

Did Rauner or his people “suggest” this request? My guess is yes, but House Republicans need to make darned sure that Rauner doesn’t somehow kill this thing off. Work with—and not for—the governor to help figure out how to fix and pass the Senate’s plan.

An agreement would mean Madigan will be outnumbered and surrounded—the position he has worked so hard to avoid for two solid years. Right now, he can credibly point to Rauner’s intransigence while the Republicans point at him, and he can do this for as long as he wants.

But an agreement means that Madigan will either have to finally lay all his own cards on the table or take all the heat for the ongoing destruction.

Don’t screw this up. We simply can’t go through another two years of this.

Click here to read the rest.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 10:28 am

Comments

While it’s hard to know what Rauner thinks, the IPI mobilizing against the compromise is an ominous sign.

In purely electoral terms, letting anyone but Madigan kill this compromise is political malpractice.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 10:45 am
–We simply can’t go through another two years of this.–

Unless that’s the plan. The reaction of Rauner’s bought-and-paid-for attack dogs at IPI leads me to believe that the governor is looking to kill any compromise at this point.

Consider: IPI was silent on the massive Exelon bailout that the governor brokered, even though it violated every single one of its alleged “principles.” But the governor was for it, so they dummied up.

Now, IPI is beating Senate Republicans like rented mules on this opening gambit, while Rauner is mostly silent.

Does anyone really believe that IPI would be this vitrolic without Rauner’s approval? Does anyone really believe that Rauner could not call them off if he wanted to?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 11:47 am
I totally agree with Wordslinger. If Rauner actually wanted a budget, or something even close to this compromise, his henchmen would be silent. I don’t believe Rauner wants a budget or really ever has. Madigan’s silence on the current budget proposals lets the Raunerites twist in their own wind.

Comment by My New Handle Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 11:56 am
== Don’t screw this up. ==

The people working on it won’t mess it up. But it can be torpedoed by “outside” groups.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 11:56 am
“click here to read the rest” and the first thing that pops up is Rauner’s picture…For God’s sake, Rich, have mercy on us…. How about a picture of Oscar, instead?

Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:07 pm
–We simply can’t go through another two years of this.–

That depends on who “we” is.
The state as a whole, no, we can’t.
But some of the political factions? The only limit on them is how high a collateral damage body count they’re willing to tolerate.

Comment by titan Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:08 pm
I agree completely with Rich on this, but I’m pessimistic about it going anywhere.

Here’s the key question on-the-fence senators are pondering right now: Is the political reward that comes from distancing yourself from the Rauner-Madigan mess worth the risk of taking a bunch of bad votes?

Comment by Roman Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:21 pm
I would expect Rauner will want to adjust/alter/add something to this plan. I know it was already set up so removal of a certain part makes the whole thing null and void but Im betting Rauner will want to get more in return for the tax hike. Whether his adjustment ends up being a poison pill or not is something we have wait and see.

Comment by Maximus Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:23 pm
First off I am glad Rich that you are a journalist who actually advocates for something rather than pretending to being just an objective observer it’s one of the reasons I follow what you write. Rich your invocation to not screw up the SB 1-13 package is noted, your acknowledgement of the likely budgetary imbalance is also noted, as is your passion for preserving social service agencies in Illinois like Lutheran Social Services and other social service providers which I deeply appreciate.

So more work definitely needs to be done to the package to create budgetary balance that could include an even higher income tax rate increase, possibly more sin taxes, and possibly cuts to the very social services you and many of us want to protect. Don’t you think at least a word or two should be devoted to how this closed, honestly secret legislative process, within the leadership of the Senate has added to the problems of this package? I understand the need to legislatively be forceful to actually get something done when the ideological divides are as massive as they are, but this is too much.

With each bill’s passage contingent on all the others passing and one of the critical contingent bills being only a shell, SB 1, costing potentially billions more dollars to implement over a period of years there are really big process problems here. I do not say this because I don’t think k-12 education funding doesn’t need to be fixed in this state either, but because it is the truth and the conclusion that the funding commission also came to. But it was not the Commission’s charge to determine what sort of education reform was possible based on dollars, it was to create a pathway to reform, but that pathway is paved with money.

President Cullerton and leader Radogno are playing the inside game that got our state in the deep fiscal trouble it’s in now. I support making a deal, but not this way. Let’s have real hearings on these bills, let’s get them out of the executive committee and have them discussed. Let’s stop putting Senators under pressure not to rock the boat for fear of the deal collapsing and let them give meaningful input. Let the House see the process in the Senate and communicate what is possible to pass over there.

Comment by Rod Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:25 pm
Rod @ 12:25 - oddly enough, I follow Rich largely because he does pretty much keep his opinions separate from the fact reporting (and when opinions are given, they’re labeled as such).

Comment by titan Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 12:52 pm
Rod. Is drinking one diet soda a day actually a sin?

Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 1:05 pm
Has everyone really forgotten how to win?

Comment by Michelle Flaherty Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 1:08 pm
If the electorate starts believing that Rauner is killing deals, the Democrat will be able to bring him down to Madigan’s level. The best way to make sure people do not believe this is to actually not kill off a possible deal.

Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 1:25 pm
==Is the political reward that comes from distancing yourself from the Rauner-Madigan mess worth the risk of taking a bunch of bad votes?==

They should also consider if voting for this package of bills will actually keep them from getting tarred with Bruce/Mike associations. I doubt it.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 1:53 pm
=I don’t believe Rauner wants a budget or really ever has. =
Didn’t Rauner double his income last year from 50 mil. to 100? Is this at all tied to not having a budget?

Comment by gdubya Monday, Jan 23, 17 @ 4:19 pm