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Question of the day

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* OK, let’s try this again since I misidentified the person in the previous question, which is now deleted. Been one of those days. Ugh. Sorry!!!

* The Question: How do you foresee the Senate’s “grand compromise” playing out in the next month or so?

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:20 pm

Comments

Some screamin’, some fightin’, some bellyachin’, some cryin’, some bleedin’, some recognizin’, some schemin’, some dealin’, some votin’.

Some.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:24 pm
I think it has a decent chance to pass the Senate.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:25 pm
I think it will at some point after the Gov’s Budget Address pass in some version.

Not sure how much longer GA members (except the Death To All Taxes crew)can continue to avoid the question of revenue.

However, they are going to have to show a good faith effort to make some reductions to provide some cover for members who are a Yes vote.

Coupled with some of the reforms in the package a revenue increase simply is the only way out of this.

Comment by Give Me A Break Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:27 pm
It seems there is something in there to give heartburn to just about everyone. Nonetheless, I think there is a general understanding that whatever the final combination is, it’s going to be a painful vote for everyone. If there is still anyone thinking there’s a painless solution out there, I have this bridge…

Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:30 pm
Like a dead weight. There are too many issues and we have already seen messages from GOMB saying it is not balanced; as well as, the standard negative from the IPI (which is as good as coming from Gov Rauner himself on both accounts).

Comment by OpenYourEyes Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:34 pm
https://youtu.be/O3ZOKDmorj0

Comment by ILGOV2018 Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:34 pm
The Grand Compromise will become The Meek Concession.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:35 pm
Dying in the House if it is lucky to get that far.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:40 pm
Opponents take the month to kill it by 1000 cuts. Madigan stays out of it, and Rauner only “acts” through IPI, but eventually, enough Republicans get cold feet and it falls apart.

Let’s hope I’m as good at predicting this as I was the election results!

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:42 pm
We desperately need action, but whether the reinvention of the camel is the action we need remains questionable.

Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:43 pm
I think it’s most likely to fail in the Senate. All these Republican-affiliated groups have the knives out for it and are twisting, although some more than others. With Rauner’s budget office questioning the numbers and the close Rauner ally (and previously funded by Rauner) IPI going hard against it I don’t think the Senate Republicans are exactly getting hints that Rauner’s money is going to protect them from primary challenges and it’s hard to see this package getting the Republican votes it needs to pass.

If it somehow does make it to the House then it gets very interesting and one of two things could happen. 1) the obvious one, the Speaker calls the revenue parts first and they fail and that’s that. Or, the much more interesting scenario is that 2) the Speaker calls for the revenue parts first to gauge the viability of support in the House and they pass and get sent to the Governor’s desk where they have to be acted on in 60 days. If that happens by say March 1 the Governor would have to decide whether or not to sign it by about May 1 while there’d still be another month to pass the rest with an immediate effective date using a simple majority. In that scenario the negotiations on the remaining parts could get very interesting.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:43 pm
I think there’s a good chance it will pass in some form.

I think everyone involved probably realized that the no-budget, don’t-blink approach has reached the point of diminishing returns. If the Grand Bargain doesn’t pass, it will likely mean that the impasse will last until the 2018 elections. Nobody wants to run on that. Not even Rauner can spin that as a victory.

Another thing in its favor is that legislators want to start getting a regular paycheck again.

I realize there’s a subset of legislators who can’t tolerate any tax increase at all. They’re in fantasyland, and I hope they’re a minority.

Comment by tobias846 Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:44 pm
If Rauner says he’s OK with the package now, there’s no way Madigan can stop it politically.

If Rauner plays possum and allows Durkin some room, and Madigan passes it (with several Republican House votes). Rauner would have the spotlight on him — but he could play the “I saved you from Democratic taxes” card, undercut Radogno and Durkin, and veto. That’s his route to public hero status.

Rauner holds the cards with the public for now, and can more easily go either way.

However, eighteen months from now, with major closures and pain due to no budget agreement, Rauner will fully share villainhood with Madigan.

Se we’re probably back to summertime, when the heat is unbearable on both sides.

(Wow! That’s some tortuous logic!)

Comment by walker Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:46 pm
Hard fought through the Senate

Barely survives the House

Vetoed by Rauner

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:50 pm
I actually think this framework has a reasonable chance of success.

Comment by dr. reason a, goodwin Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:50 pm
Decent chance to pass the Senate. The Governor will do his best to provide the public with the appearance of him being willin’ to compromise and get a deal done (while having his subsidiaries and affiliates like IPI work against it), with the goal being no deal, and MJM blamed for it. MJM may very well also have the goal of no deal, but hasn’t demonstrated much of an interest in avoiding the blame for it. Although maybe the deal could become toxic enough politically for Rauner that MJM gets behind it.

Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 3:59 pm
If the Senate Leaders are on the bill, and I’m assuming they will be; it’ll pass the Senate. There will be Senate GOP votes on it. Enough to call it reasonably bipartisan.

The House is always unpredictable. I think the Editorial Boards and the public will have a strong effect on getting the House to pass it (we’ll see how clean it comes out of there).

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:08 pm
I’m an outsider and you insiders would know better, but I have to think that if ever there was a time for the Senate to assert its relevance and show leadership, that time would be now.

If the Senate passes something even close to balanced and if either the House or Rauner fails to pass (or amend and pass) or sign it, it would look awful for them/him in 2018. So the Senate has a chance here, no?

Behind THAT question is whether there are enough Illinois Senate Republicans who still believe in this republic. (Same question in Washington, btw.) If you believe in government, you have to produce a budget you can pay for. You take responsibility for any cuts and any taxes. That’s why you are there.

To that point, Madigan has wanted Republican co-authorship of tax increases since ever, no? In the Senate the party of “no” may finally be forced into behaving responsibly and actually assist in governing.

Alas, its probably a long shot. Like Rauner, they may prove once again that they are, practically speaking, nihilists.

What do you insiders think of the chances here?

Comment by HistProf Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:09 pm
The compromise debate will show how hard it will be to raise revenue to pay for programs. The debate will force both parties to acknowledge that government costs more than is currently coming in, and both sides will have to speak frankly and in detail about program cuts and other budgetary tradeoffs.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:18 pm
I am optimistic about the Senate getting something together and passed. I am concerned about the IPI being against it, since they are mainly funded by Rauner at this point. I don’t think that will stop the Senate, but I do think it could stop House Republicans from putting any votes on it, or anything similar. It seems doubtful Madigan will do anything with any tax increase without Republican votes, so that is the spot where Rauner could gum things up without appearing to be opposed to compromise.

Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:22 pm
I like The Captains outlook. But I think most of what passes the Senate besides the Revenue bill gets amended in the House and goes back for concurrence. Radogno (and probably Cullerton) won’t like that but the Dems could pass the changes themselves. Then Rauner is on the hot seat and probably vetos. Could be an interesting year.

Comment by Been There Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:54 pm
DOA

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 4:57 pm
It’s probably safe to say what finally passed the Senate and House will have maybe 70% resemblance to the current proposal. Don’t know if those changes will make it more or less acceptable to Rauner. Think it will be the Governor’s office that makes or breaks the deal.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 5:02 pm
The Senate forgets to tighten the lug nuts. The wheels come off on the way to the House. 1.4% blames Madigan and whines about his lack of power.

Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 5:04 pm
Half baked ideas after two years is a recipe for disaster. After years of going after madigan, the govenor will have to ask for a tax increase hat in hand

Comment by Rabid Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 5:17 pm
It’s not been a great few months for predictions, but the grand bargain could pass the Senate because the long-term future of the ILGOP is not with Rauner, so this could be a practice break-up.

If it gets to the House, Madigan could ask for MOUs from the Governor before doing a structured roll call vote.

Rauner will torpedo one way or another unless it contains major blows to unions.

Comment by peon Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 6:02 pm
I still can’t figure out how much slack Rodogno has in this. I don’t believe she’s acting completely outside or Rauner’s influence. If Rauner is throwing in the towel on the turnaround agenda, just get it over with. If Rauner is conducting some elaborate scheme to drag out the budget problems even longer, why bother? It’s perplexing.

Comment by DuPage Dave Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 6:22 pm
Madigan will reduce the 4.99 to something lower by proposing his millionaire’s tax.
The IPI will continue to make noise until Rauner tells them to stop.

Comment by Winnin' Tuesday, Jan 24, 17 @ 9:00 pm