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Poll of Illinois Republicans finds support for unions

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* Local 150 of the Operating Engineers International Union commissioned a poll of 600 likely Illinois Republican Party primary voters by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, which is a Democratic pollster. The poll was taken January 4-8 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0 percent. 45 percent of respondents were reached on their mobile phones.

From the pollster…

• Primary voters are net favorable towards labor unions. A plurality of voters are favorable towards labor unions (46% favorable / 40% unfavorable), driven by stronger support Downstate (49% favorable / 35% unfavorable). This includes many self- described conservatives (41% favorable / 47% unfavorable) who are 61% of GOP primary voters as well as moderates (54% favorable / 31% unfavorable) who make up almost all of the rest (34% of GOP primary voters).

• Support for labor unions is correlated with GOP dislike of Bruce Rauner. Bruce Rauner receives almost unanimous support from the roughly half of GOP primary voters who dislike labor unions (83% favorable / 12% unfavorable), but the half who is favorable towards unions is less positive towards the Governor (68% favorable / 26% unfavorable).

• GOP primary voters hold many pro-labor positions in opposition to the Governor. As with support for unions generally, support for the pro-labor position correlates with personal unfavorability towards Bruce Rauner. […]

• GOP primary voters also support increased spending on infrastructure and anti- outsourcing laws. We have seen similar levels of support for both policies statewide and among Democrats, though these numbers seem to have increased among Republicans since Donald Trump’s nomination and election.

* Questions and answers…

Now, I’d like to ask you your impressions of some people active in politics. As I read each one, just tell me whether you have a very favorable opinion, a somewhat favorable opinion, a somewhat unfavorable opinion, or a very unfavorable opinion of each. If you don’t recognize them, just say so. Here is the first one…

Bruce Rauner

Favorable 75% (Very 37%)
Unfavorable 18% (Very 10%)
Can’t rate 7%

Labor unions

Favorable 46% (Very 13%)
Unfavorable 40% (Very 20%)
Can’t rate 14%

Now I’m going to ask you about some policies. Please tell me, for each one, whether you favor or oppose them.

Ending all labor union membership in Illinois

Favor 28% (Strongly 15%)
Oppose 62% (Strongly 36%)
Don’t know 10%

Prevailing wage laws, which mean anyone getting a taxpayer funded contract has to pay their workers at least the average local wage for their job

Favor 76% (Strongly 49%)
Oppose 18% (Strongly 8%)
Don’t know 6%

Ending the right of unions to collectively bargain for pay, benefits, and safety requirements

Favor 36% (Strongly 20%)
Oppose 53% (Strongly 29%)
Don’t know 11%

Increasing spending on roads, bridges, and bridge safety in Illinois

Favor 80% (Strongly 46%)
Oppose 14% (Strongly 5%)
Don’t know 6%

An anti-outsourcing law that would prohibit companies who ship jobs out of Illinois from getting taxpayer funded contracts

Favor 69% (Strongly 49%)
Oppose 23% (Strongly 13%)
Don’t know

That prevailing wage question is a bit on the biased side, but it’s not a bad poll overall.

* Methodology…

The following findings are based on a poll of n=600 likely Illinois primary-election voters, defined as having voted in at least one of the past four statewide Republican primaries (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016) and saying they are likely to vote in a 2018 Republican primary election. Respondents were contacted via landline and cellphone. The expected margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level is +4.0% and higher for subgroups.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:15 am

Comments

I’m with 150 all day, every day.

Great idea to commission a poll, not “too surprised” by these results in Illinois.

Republicans, not Raunerites, respect the trades, and understand Labor and try to find the meshing points.

Glad to see this. Thanks 150, thanks Rich for the Post.

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:21 am
There Alleluia! It’s begun! People are waking up to the fact that unions are fighting to raise wages and Raunerites are fighting to lower them!

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:26 am
My unscientific poll finds little criticism of the trade unions by Republicans or conservatives. I suspect that many trade union members actually vote Republican. They just don’t talk about it. On the other hand, trade union people that I know have few kind words for the public unions.

Comment by Keyser Soze Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:26 am
Actions speak louder than words. Lots of people support unions in principle. American consumers support their pocketBooks. It is a pity.

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:27 am
Second OW’s comment. Successful Republican Governors, not to mention any names, (Thompson, Edgar, Ryan) did not view Labor, especially the trades, as the enemy. I think by the time he retired, Thompson had been made an honorary member of so many trade unions that he probably coulda got a pension.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:28 am
These are not “hard” R’s; ask any pollster or campaign folks and they will tell you that pulling one parties ballot is meaningless. True party voters or “Hard” R’s/D’s will pull 2 or more straight partisan ballots.

Comment by Donnie Elgin Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:38 am
46-40 is a meaningless spread for something as nebulous as Favorable opinion of labor unions. I mean, I’m glad it’s not 70-30 or something, but still, it doesn’t really tell us much.

But I’m dubious about this poll anyway, because Rauner’s only got 75% of Republicans. That seems low for a Republican incumbent.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:41 am
Anzalone Liszt is a top-notch, reputable firm. Believe this.

Comment by Ray del Camino Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:42 am
==On the other hand, trade union people that I know have few kind words for the public unions.==

Thus, the folly of Rauner’s six month field trip to Galt’s Gulch. Spending all that time, right out the gate, attacking all unions just lashed them together (and lashed them to the Democratic Party) even though they have real, exploitable divisions.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:43 am
AA. More pension on top of the estimated $3.5 million hes getting?

Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:46 am
You get he results you want when you phrase a question a certain way. Add reality to the question and what are the results? Example- Increasing spending on roads, bridges, and bridge safety in Illinois if it raises taxes,cuts other vital services or cuts education spending?

Comment by Arock Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:54 am
Bruce Rauner favorable 76%. Poll taken in January of this year. 76% favorable, SMH!!

Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 11:55 am
There are probably a lot of union members who vote in Republican primaries and who would like to have a pro-union candidate to vote for there. Hard to picture anyone running in a primary against Rauner though.

Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:03 pm
don the legend - the 76% approval rating is from among Republicans. Seems like a realistic number.

Comment by phocion Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:04 pm
I’m sick of the dopey anti-union mentality still being respected and listened to in the GOP.

Its 2017 guys, working class people are decimated, throw them a freaking bone.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:07 pm
“Prevailing wage laws, which mean anyone getting a taxpayer funded contract has to pay their workers at least the average local wage for their job”

Except that prevailing wages are higher than average…. That’s the rub. IDOL sets the wages, compels local jurisdictions to adopt them, then they magically become the average, even though the prevailing wage rates for public projects are always higher than wages paid for private. If prevailing wages were actually average wages, they wouldn’t be such a legitimate target.

Comment by Shemp Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:09 pm
The poll didn’t address the level of support for *government* unions. That leaves a policy and opinion hole large enough to drive a truck through.

Comment by JB13 Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:12 pm
phocion- Understood. But considering the unpaid bills to vendors, credit downgrades, higher education teetering, just to name a few. It’s hard to see 76% of any group supporting the governor. With respect.

Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:15 pm
I’d like to know where all these republicans are at that are pro-union?!?! I have never met one to date, one that is really pro-union even of those in a union where it benefits them directly. I mean they give lip service to the concept but when it comes down to brass tacks they would be just as happy w/o unions as long as they prosper.

Comment by not buying today Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:18 pm
I don’t know why the would. The Republican Party here in Illinois and Nationally seem are dead set against the concept of organized labor.

Comment by Rogue Roni Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:26 pm
AA- and how did Thompson’s romance with Unions work out for Illinois? In exchange for the 3002 IEA endorsement Thompson signed the Collective Bargaining bill and on his way out agreed to the 3 percent pension COLA. Think Illinois is now better off?

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:28 pm
1982 endorsement

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:28 pm
This absolutely squares with what I hear while canvassing. There are very few people who harangue on unions in general; some policies for sure. Trade unions enjoy more support. I think this poll very accurately reflects what a lot of people say.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:31 pm
I wonder why there was no question asked about MJM?

Comment by Hit or Miss Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:46 pm
Right now Republican politicians’ support for unions is for all intents and purposes nonexistent or limited to the point of complete powerlessness. This is seen all through the Midwest. Republicans are by and large owned by plutocratic corporate interests. In Illinois, with the exception of Sen. McCann, they are completely owned by the governor and his tiny group of super-rich donors.

My hope is that Republican union members who care about union rights and their standards of living finally realize who are and aren’t their political allies. Gov. Walker got the public unions first and then went after the private unions.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 12:52 pm
===a bit on the biased side===

More than a bit.

Comment by KAA-boom Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 1:06 pm
==Gov. Walker got the public unions first and then went after the private unions.==

same plan rauner is trying to follow

Comment by working stiff Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 1:45 pm
I’m thinking Trump won the midwest with both Democratic and Republican union support.

Comment by OldIllini Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 1:47 pm
Echoing JB 13’s comment, I’d like to see the same poll differentiating trade unions and public sector unions. I think the support numbers would drop significantly if you separate the two.

Comment by Swift Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 2:09 pm
“Echoing JB 13’s comment, I’d like to see the same poll differentiating trade unions and public sector unions. I think the support numbers would drop significantly if you separate the two.”

But what about police unions, corrections officers unions, and firefighters’ unions? Support for public sector unions could be higher than you’d think if the respondent considers these members of the labor movement…

Comment by Frank Manzo IV Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 3:02 pm
“Thompson…….”on his way out agreed to the 3 percent pension COLA.”

An action which he later admitted he wouldn’t have taken if he had understood the future cost to the State.

Comment by CapnCrunch Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 3:20 pm
How can you not understand basic arithmetic ?

Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Feb 7, 17 @ 3:34 pm
Wasn’t the longtime president William Dugan of the Intl. Union of Operating Engineers convicted by U.S Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald in 2010?

Isn’t that the union that NRA lobbyist Todd Vandermyde used to work for? I heard that 150 union members are pretty conservative by and large?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 8, 17 @ 2:20 pm