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* Ugh…
Jim Muschinske of COGFA says IL revenue projections for FY 18 revised downward $657M #twill pic.twitter.com/uaQLqEGbke
— Matt Dietrich (@MattReboot) March 7, 2017
* COGFA’s February revenue report is entitled “February Freefall—Significant Downward Adjustment Coming in March”…
Overall base revenues fell $423 million in February. Like a broken record, monthly declines reflected weaker income taxes along with poor federal sources. Unfortunately, February’s lackluster performance was widespread with only a couple sources managing to show gains. One less receipting day likely contributed to the decline, though certainly not the primary culprit. […]
To date, gross corporate income taxes are off $482 million, or $422 million net of refunds. Gross personal income tax is down $375 million, or $456 million if refunds and diversions to the education and human service funds are included. Public utility taxes are down $67 million, in part due to a one-time accounting change at IDoR. The highly volatile inheritance tax is down $58 million. Vehicle use tax is behind $3 million, while cigarette tax is off $2 million. […]
To repeat comments from previous briefings, with continued dramatic falloffs month after month in federal sources, receipts are behind last year’s dismal pace by $565 million. Absent an infusion of resources that could be committed to reimbursable spending, the outlook for a meaningful recovery for federal sources remains grim.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:08 am
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There must be a “VAT” tax to save the great state of IL. We are hurting, IL needs revenue and a budget.
Comment by Rocky Rosi Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:14 am
So maybe running up billions in unpaid bills, reneging on contracts and forcing thousands of layoffs isn’t good for the economy after all?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:14 am
Trust me, once we have term limits this will all be worth it. s/
Comment by Gruntled University Employee Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:16 am
You cut payments to social services and state contractors, who then cut payroll, and you gett less income tax revenue. Then you scare the heck out of all state government employees, including teachers who will be affected by the health insurance, then those employees cut back on spending, and you are surprised sales tax revenue is down. In effect, you created a recession in a significant portion of the state economy.
You’re getting exactly the results that should have been expected …
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:18 am
You mean a dysfunctional government with no budget spending billions more then they bring in is not a good business climate. I thought things would be improving just on the hope of term limits and a property tax freeze along with some additional workers comp changes. snark
Comment by facts are stubborn things Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:20 am
Uff da! What next, a conservative congress will get elected and vote to constrain federal spending to the states? Oh wait, that’s happening.
We’re in deep … and being lead by a governor who is not leading.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:23 am
Gallup says February spending was highest ever. Once again, Illinois has to be an outlier.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/204911/consumers-february-spending-highest-2008.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication
Another thought, tax returns for EIC tax payers, and taxpayers receiving refunds, were delayed significantly this year by Feds.
That would have made them miss a projection if not factored in to their estimates.
Comment by cdog Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:23 am
Well duh! Of course we aren’t getting Revenue in the coffers when we let almost 90 large businesses off the hook for taxes through EDGE incentives in 2016
RELEASE the 2016 EDGE Report and you’ll see the what I estimate to be 696 million for corporate welfare
(215mil / 27 = 8mil. 8mil x 87 = 696 mil)
That’s where a HUGE chunk of your tax dollars went
696,000,000 would have helped a lot
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:24 am
I’m even more afraid of the next recession. A sharp downturn may be the final nail in our fiscal coffin. Lovingly crafted by the Barron.
Comment by Anotheretiree Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:31 am
When statistics from COGFA look like alarmist end of the world doomsday nut-hatchery, we know we are in big trouble.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:32 am
Pardon if there’s another way to get this, but has COGFA revised the Revenue forecast for fiscal 2018?
How deep a hole is Rauner’s “spending budget” proposal facing, even if he agrees to a “4.99″ new tax plan?
Is this deterioration making even the current “grand bargain” untenable?
Comment by walker Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:41 am
If it wasn’t coming to a head now, we’d have been here in a few more years anyway due to the perpetual inability to balance a budget and finance pensions without monkeying with the numbers.
Comment by Shemp Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:41 am
Rauner has raised our taxes and made state government more expensive, while stripping us of whatever value there had been.
Whatever supposed savings his Turnaround Agenda may have had, has been lost three times over, by how Rauner tried to implent it. He is a man who has committed gubernatorial malpractice.
If Rauner was a surgeon, he’d demand that our needed tonsillectomy granted him the right to remove our tonsils through our butt.
He wonders why we question his “approach” to governing? Anyone with half a brain would.
This is his economy. He blew it up. While it wasn’t fantastic, Rauner figured out how to make it worse.
Do you think it’s possible that Rauner’s plan for our economy is to eventually sell it to a senior living in one of his old nursing homes, as used computer parts?
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:43 am
Note to voters:
Running a government like a business leads to disaster.
Running a business like a government leads to disaster.
Government and business are note the same thing. Why do voters keep making that mistake? It is not working with our president and it has not worked with our governor.
Comment by illinoised Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:53 am
Why are individual tax revenues down? Fewer taxpayers? Lower taxable income per taxpayer? Both? If jobs are leaving Illinois, do we think it is because of the budget impasse? Or is it that they realize taxes are going up?
One thing we often ignore is that policy decisions by the government impacts the behavior of the people, which in turn alters the impact of the decision.
The corporate welfare debate is a good example. Just eliminate it! Of course that will cause many of those companies to leave the state. So the amount added to the revenue pile will be far less than forecast. In addition, some of their employees will leave, too; and others will be unemployed here.
Comment by Anony Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:54 am
Wonder how much of the revenue decline is attributable to the large outflow of residents. It’s not poor people leaving but of course word will call be an imbecile for asking
Comment by Sue Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 11:56 am
Wasn’t Fantastic VanillaMan??? LOL, the state was in terrible condition and has been for a long time.
Memo: This state isn’t coming back. Waaaaaaaaay to much debt, heavy taxation, people leaving. The University of Illinois basketball team has a better chance of winning the national title this year.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:02 pm
how weird. The State removed billions in spending from the economy when it lowered taxes. The state put lots of small buisness our of buisnes when it stopped paying them. and it froze salaries of State workers causeing them to reduce soending. its almost like spending is good for economies. meanwhile the tax savings has not trickled down from the coffers of the ultrawealthy Rauner and cronies to grease the economic engine. Only making the wealthy wealthier by reducing wages will help the economy.
minnesota raised taxes and raised the min wGe. the extta spending has boosted their economy
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:15 pm
>with continued dramatic falloffs month after month in federal source
Agree with Norseman. We haven’t seen anything yet in terms of reduced federal funds while we keep running up our own bills day after day.
Comment by Earnest Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:22 pm
The biggest tax reduction in state history occurred with expiration of most of the temporary income tax hike. Apparently that big reduction did not jumpstart the state economy.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:29 pm
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:02 pm:
GO ILLINI!!
Comment by WhoKnew Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:34 pm
Looks like Bruce’s magic beans budget line just got bigger.
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:39 pm
OK - if you say so…
“While our economy wasn’t fantasic, and Anonymous would even say that the state was in terrible condition, (thx Anon!), Rauner figured out how to make it worse.”
Memo: Anonymous isn’t a fantastic blogger, but he’ll probably say that he’s in terrible condition.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:45 pm
I can’t speak for wordslinger, but if you have a legitimate source for your claim that “it’s not poor people leaving”, then I’d first check with the data contained in that source.
If you don’t have a legitimate source for your claim, then I’d suggest you don’t post such unsubstantiated claims.
But again, I don’t presume to speak for wordslinger.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 12:59 pm
How many tax returns claimed the retirement income exception this year versus last year?
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 1:11 pm
@Ghost - One way or another, the state is going to remove billions from the economy, either via spending cuts or tax hikes. The money has to come from somewhere. It’s a zero sum game.
Any dollar not removed from the economy is probably coming out of someone’s savings account. So they’ll pay later…and bigly.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 1:14 pm
Sue, is it your contention that people making good money in Illinois are leaving?
I would think that those leaving are those looking to make more money elsewhere, or retirees.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 1:49 pm
I almost forgot about Enterprize Zones and historical tax credits. Both 2015 reports are missing and mandated by statute. Where are they Rauner? Why are they being hidden?
I bet they show hundreds of millions for things like luxury condos a marina and brewpub in Rockford.
At tax payer expense AND meanwhile Grandma has to vut back on meals on wheels
Historical Tax Credit 2014 2016 2016
EZ Zone report 2015
Show the outflow!
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 2:43 pm
Who benefits from this fiscal carnage? Who benefits from the destruction of labor? Call me the Owl but who? Rauner somehow managed to benefit. He tripled his income since coming to office.
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 2:53 pm
More Rauner wreckage.
I hope the Chamber, Retail Merchants, IMA are paying attention.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 6:39 pm
Less taxpayers as people continue to flee.
Comment by Tone Tuesday, Mar 7, 17 @ 9:26 pm