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Unclear on the math

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Illinois

* From the Monroe County Republic-Times…

“I’m excited to be back here in Monroe County. This is strong Republican territory here,” he cheered, motioning to a crowd of more than 22o supporters. Rauner had attended the county’s Republican Lincoln Day Dinner in 2013 as a prospective gubernatorial candidate and returned in 2014 for a short visit while on the campaign trail.

During his speech, the governor went on to thank the county for their support and for fighting for the party’s values. He briefly mentioned the state budget, but only as a means to transition into his agenda.

“Some people think the problem is about the budget,” he uttered in a sincere tone. “It’s partly about the budget, but it’s really about our future prosperity.”

To Rauner, that future prosperity includes bringing power back to the Republicans in Springfield — he confidently foretold at the dinner that eight more Illinois Republicans would unseat Democratic representatives in the 2018 elections. He also continued his call for pension reform, job growth, term SAT limits and non-partisan redistricting, among other topics. [Emphasis added.]

Rauner’s standard stump speech always includes that line these days about picking up eight Democratic House seats. He says it everywhere he goes.

* Bernie points out the flaw…

“I am all in to make sure we pick up eight seats next November,” Rauner said [at the Piatt County GOP’s Lincoln Day Dinner]. “And when we do, Republicans control the House of Representatives. … We can turn this state around dramatically if the House flipped to Republican control. … We’ve got a really good shot.”

It would actually take a nine-seat pickup for Republicans to take over the Illinois House

The Democrats have 67 House seats. So if the Republicans pick off 8 seats there’d be a 59-59 tie.

Personally, I’ve been praying for a 59-59 tie since the 1990s. Man, what great theater that would be.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:26 pm

Comments

Apparently included in the specious “structural reforms” he keeps touting is that any ties in the house are broken by the Lt. Gov.

Comment by Henry Francis Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:31 pm
Good one, HF. lol

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Looks like he’ll need another $250K for a Czar of All Arithmetic to go along with his Secretary of Education and Superintendent of Education.

You’d think these Superstars would have more versatile skills.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Looks like they might drop 8.

Comment by Red Rider Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Maybe that’s why we don’t have a budget? Nobody can count to 60!

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:33 pm
Did no one tell him Jack Franks is gone?

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:34 pm
RNUG may have just broken the internet.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:34 pm
I think Drury is that missing GOP member… but in a romantic that way

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:35 pm
–Did no one tell him Jack Franks is gone?–

Speaking of, where did Dunk land? Anything for the effort?

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:37 pm
Seeing a 59-59 would make up for all the unfortunate side effects of the Cutback amendment

Comment by Fax Machine Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:38 pm
Lincoln Day? The same Lincoln whose cabinet members were some of the strongest men from the OTHER political party?

Comment by Jocko Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:39 pm
In 2016, Democrats had 13 races where they won by less than 10,000 votes with only 3 closer than 3,000. Republicans had 12 with 4 closer than 3,000. It’s tough to see where a rational person sees +8 but someone who thinks no budget for 2 years is a winning formula to go with running commercials as a sitting governor still being an “outsider” tells one that rationality may not be the Baron’s strong suit, errr strong carhartt.

Comment by OurMagician Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:42 pm
Can you imagine how insane it’s going to be watching TV next year where literally every commercial break will be multiple Governor & State rep ads

Comment by Fax Machine Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:45 pm
Holding up the budget because the taxpayers don’t vote right

Comment by Rabid Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:46 pm
Probably countin’ Drury…..but

Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:49 pm
Great theater indeed, Rich. But who, and where, are the 8 that he hopes to pick up while defending some potentially vulnerable newbies that may be in tight races?

Comment by illini Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:53 pm
- Annonin’ -

I do understand Drury’s seat being where it is and all, but the comedy of being so close is stronger than the hilarity sending him across the chamber?

Like I said, I’m a romantic about it…

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:53 pm
“It’s partly about the budget, but it’s really about our future prosperity.”

Isn’t it also about the crushing mountain of debt we now have due to the backlog of unpaid bills? Hard to see the future prosperity in that.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 4:56 pm
Common core math? Reality is not a strong point- ya ain’t gonna pick up 8 or 9!!!!!

Comment by Yo Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:03 pm
Doesn’t he mean the November after next?

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:10 pm
==Can you imagine how insane it’s going to be watching TV next year where literally every commercial break will be multiple Governor & State rep ads==

I’m a cable-cutter & watch OTA only for the occasional sporting event, and it’s weird being in a political-ad-free bubble. Sometimes I feel like I’m missing out, but it’s also pretty nice.

Comment by whetstone Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:11 pm
Now, if only under-funding K-12 and ALL of Higher Ed could teach some basic math!

Sorry, I forgot, term limits, redistricting reform, and the rest of the TAA will solve all these problems!

Comment by illini Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:13 pm
Jokes and math aside, Monroe County has become a GOP stronghold. It well could give Rauner one house seat come 2018.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:19 pm
RNUG and OW are doing their best here to mitigate the loss of Don Rickles, I must say. I may be a romantic about it, though.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 5:39 pm
Personally, I have had enough theater as it is now.

Comment by Tired of it all Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 6:08 pm
In 2014 Tom Cross lost by a hair to Mike Frerichs and still got more votes than Frerichs in 64 House seats (Rauner won 69) so I’m sure that’s Rauner’s mentality, even if he wins a tight race so long as the House Republicans can match his effort there should be enough seats to carry the chamber.

The problem is that the House Republicans have consistently underperformed what their party is capable of, and of course Rauner’s re-elect is no shoo in. [gets popcorn]

Comment by The Captain Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 6:19 pm
- The Captain -

On “Masters Thursday” it’s nice to see Two-Putt’s name being invoked. Hope to catch 9 holes with Tom Cross, I’ll keep checking at Fox Bend.

To your point, I think what happened in the brilliance of carrying Rauner over the finish line, was that the structural down-ballot carry wasn’t the real concern, allowing Dems to run just against the GOP counterpart, and no “Quinn-Rauner” dynamic.

Rauner is attaching everyone to Madigan so the structural
Field Operations may be enough, not coat tails per se but a linear “Punch 10″ thought, and Rauner thinks he can sweep 8 seats (Plus Drury, but I digress).

Statewide versus the micro districts, that’s the challenge… with “Madigan” trying to be the conduit(?)

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 6:31 pm
Rauner is gonna lose big…especially in his own race.

Comment by Chucktownian Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 6:34 pm
Does Jerry Costello already count as a Republican?

Comment by Collinsville Kevin Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 7:00 pm
@CollinsvilleKevin - I hope not but honestly, I am not sure.

Comment by illini Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 7:18 pm
HE STILL CANT GET to 60.

Comment by Langhorne Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 8:07 pm
Costello. Almost a fiscal conservative. Definetly gun frieNdly. Represents the working man/woman. Costello for gov.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 10:01 pm
The sad thing is that you Schnorf as a commenter. He was a giant. You are an ant trying to play off of the real people in the game. You ready to open up. I am.

Comment by OW Fact Check Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 10:40 pm
Sorry. You only knew Schnorf as a commenter. Nothing more. That is what visitors here should know. If you were actually in the game, you would have had interactions with this statesman. From your prior posts - you didn’t. What a weak messenger of anything. Seams like you and Ibemdahl are fighting for who can blog from their parents basement the most. Rich, delete if you want - that is cool. OW is a joke.

Comment by OW Fact Check Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 10:58 pm
The Captain: You are one step away from telling us how many counties Tom Cross won.

I keep going back through my notes, and I am not as convinced as Oswego Willy that Team Rauner has a plan at this point.

Plan A was to leverage the minimum wage to get the turn around agenda, that didn’t work. Plan B was to squeeze social service agencies to get the turn around agenda, that didn’t work. Plan C was to use a Democratic SuperPAC to flip moderate Democrats, that didn’t work. Plan D was to use Ken Dunkin to incite a revolt among the Black Caucus, that didn’t work. Plan E was to make significant inroads during the 2016 Election, that didn’t work.

We seem to have gone back to Plan B again.

Meanwhile, the Democrats’ prediction that it would only be a matter of time before Rauner was as unpopular as Mike Madigan seems to have come true.

So how do Republicans pick up seats when Bruce Rauner is so unpopular, when his name is on the ballot but Mike Madigan’s isn’t?

I am not ruling it out. Certainly if you have a candidate like Pawar, you like your odds, and I bet right now the GOP are cooking up schemes to funnel support into Pawar’s campaign. But I doubt voters will find him a viable alternative when all is said and done. Seems voters looking for a wonkish progressive are gonna go with Biss.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 11:25 pm
YDD, everything you said makes sense. These guys need to hold onto control and will do anything to maintain it.

Comment by OW Fact Check Thursday, Apr 6, 17 @ 11:30 pm
- OW Fact Check -

“Everyone’s a critic…”

LOL!

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 7, 17 @ 6:56 am
- YDD -

I didn’t say it would work, I said that was a plan, lol.

Maybe it got lost in the spam folder, you know?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Apr 7, 17 @ 7:04 am
The governor has alienated most if not all of the GOP precinct committeemen in central and southern Illinois with his ignoring them and placing dems on every state board and commission. MANY want rid of him and his agenda they want real governance and are sick of his blame game.

Comment by the old man Friday, Apr 7, 17 @ 7:41 am