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* We’ll talk about this more on Monday, but here’s the press release…
Today, Personal PAC released the results of a statewide poll it recently conducted showing that Governor Rauner is completely out of step with the vast majority of Illinois voters on the issue of abortion.
73% percent of Illinois voters believe abortion should be a private decision between a woman and her doctor versus 20% who do not, making the margin of difference 53%. 7% were not sure. Among these voters, 58% of them are Republicans, 86% are Hispanic/Latino, 71% are White, and 83% are African American, with strong support across all age groups, 85% of 18-29 year-olds and 70% of those older than 65. Of people living outside the Collar Counties & Chicago/Cook County, 65% agree with this statement versus 27% who disagree.
On the question of whether Governor Rauner should protect the reproductive health care of ALL women, 64% agree and 24% disagree, with 12% undecided. 47% of Republicans agree as do 75% of Hispanic/Latinos, 60% of White voters and 74% of African Americans, 57% of those older than 65.
One of the most encouraging and fascinating results is that among 18-25 year-olds, 83% agree that Governor Rauner should protect the reproductive rights of ALL women which is almost identical to the 85% who believe abortion should be safe and legal in Illinois. This age cohort clearly understands that being pro-choice means supporting access for all women and their families. Translation: A choice without the means to exercise that choice is meaningless.
On the question of being more or less likely to vote for Governor Rauner if he DOES NOT PROTECT the reproductive health care of ALL women, 46% are less likely to vote for him while 20% are more likely to vote for him, with 28% making no difference and 5% not sure. 21% of Republicans and 47% of Independent voters are less likely to vote for him when asked this question.
Only 35% of Republicans would be more likely to vote for him and to 39% of Republicans it makes no difference. Among all Republicans on this question, fully 64% are either less likely to vote for Governor Rauner (21%), it doesn’t make a difference (39%), or they are not sure (4%).
43% of voters living outside the Collar Counties and Cook County/Chicago are less likely to vote for Rauner if he doesn’t support the reproductive rights of all women.
The results of this poll make it abundantly clear that Governor Rauner is on the wrong side of every demographic in the State of Illinois on the issue of abortion rights and access to reproductive health care for all women.
Yesterday, Governor Rauner stated that he will veto HB 40 because the issue is “too ‘divisive’ and “controversial.’” However, this poll points to the truth: Governor Rauner is the one who is too divisive and controversial; not the protections for women contained in HB 40 that he now opposes. It would be quite simple for Governor Rauner to take all that “focus” he has and spend just five seconds of his valuable time to place his signature on HB 40 to make it the law in Illinois.
Signing HB 40 is what the people of Illinois want Governor Rauner to do and expect of him, not only in this poll, but what he promised to do in writing in 2014 by stating, “As Governor I will work for equal access to contraception and abortion services.” “I dislike the law that restricts abortion coverage under the state Medicaid plan and state employees’ health insurance because I believe it unfairly restricts access based on income. I would support a legislative effort to reverse that law.”
The people of Illinois agree with your 2014 statement Governor Rauner. HB 40 is the “legislative effort to reverse that law.”
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling April 17-18, 2017 among 855 registered voters statewide. 80% of the respondents were reached by land line phones and 20% were cell phone users.
The full poll, with crosstabs, is here.
* Most of the questions…
46 percent saying they would be “less likely” to vote for Rauner on this topic is not very high. And if you look at the crosstabs, that number is 48 percent among women.
President Trump’s approve/disapprove among women, by the way, is 35/56. Among men, it’s 45/49. His overall approval numbers are similar to some recent national polling.
posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Apr 23, 17 @ 1:13 pm
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46 percent saying they would be “less likely” to vote for Rauner on this topic is not very high.
————–
It is very high when you consider the 28% that voted wouldn’t make a difference. I take that to mean some of the voters won’t vote for him if he is for or against it. If I participated in the poll I would have voted “wouldn’t make a difference” because I have no intention of voting for him anyway.
So with that said the numbers are high against him.
Comment by Ok Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:22 am
To the Post,
The “sweet spot” Cosgrove & Personal PAC needs to mine isn’t the parsing of the 46%, it’s the window in the 64% & 46% to peel Rauner pluses.
It’s up to Cosgrove and Personal PAC to find voters within those two subgroups that can make a raw vote difference to move a percentage or 2 in big picture, but, this is also about eroding the confidence in Rauner and now Rauner actually having a social agenda. Those 2 things might help Cosgrove later when the cetdibility of Rauner is hammered and shook by all his falsehoods, like no social agenda.
Reality? HB40 will not alone be a game-changer, but could it be a small, incremental erosion in Rauner confidence? That’s the question I see.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:25 am
I’m often puzzled by these “more likely/less likely” questions.
Women’s reproductive rights is a very important issue to me, but Rauner’s stance does not make me any less likely to vote for him — there was already a ZERO percent chance that I would ever support him in an election.
I was at zero before this issue came up. And I’m at zero now.
I literally cannot be made less likely to vote for him.
“If the restaurant added cilantro to this steaming pile of garbage would you be less likely or more likely to order it on your next visit, or would it not make a difference either way?”
“Uhh… Wouldn’t make a difference?”
I’m not sure what, if anything, we learn from such poll questions.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:28 am
Their poll, so they get to word the questions, but I suspect the % would drop a bit if “protect” becomes “have you as a taxpayer pay for,” as with a lot of other issues.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:28 am
A dishonest poll that does not address the core of the issue.
Do you favor taxpayer funded abortion on demand?
No poll has ever shown a majority of Americans support this radical position.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:33 am
- Lucky Pierre -
In many ways you could be right.
However, you forget an important thing;
Rauner’s own words on the questionnaire that Cosgrove and Personal PAC will use against Bruce, and severely undercut the personal credibility of Diana Rauner to her husband and no social agenda silliness.
When suburban women want to know if they can trust Bruce Rauner, Cosgrove and Personal PAC will remind them, a movie I’ve seen before and its impact felt before too.
The RaunerS personally misled Personal PAC in the questionnaire, and when Diana personally vouching for Bruce that now is as hollow as any words Bruce has said since taking the oath.
But, you could’ve been right… except for that pesky questionnaire.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:39 am
Lucky Pierre
A dishonest poll that does not address the core of the issue.
Do you favor taxpayer funded abortion on demand?
——-
This is karma for a dishonest gov. Progressive dems talk about tax reform or tax millionaires and Rauner spins it to tax hike on everyone.
Comment by Ok Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:39 am
I agree with the others on the “less likely” matter. Right now, I don’t see any way that I would vote for Mr. Rauner. This issue will not make a difference.
Comment by Gooner Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:45 am
Lucky, that may be your issue, but it is not the one that is being discussed.
Mr. Rauner wants to roll back the ability of women to have an abortion, no matter who pays for it.
Comment by Gooner Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:46 am
Personal PAC is operated by a Democratic activist who has held appointed offices under former Governor Quinn. Terry Cosgrove has been called out for his campaign tactics before (such as labeling some politicians anti-choice in all instances when they were not).
Comment by Grain of Salt Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:49 am
Sanger’s eugentics dream come true.
Comment by Liberty Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:50 am
Oh, - Grain of Salt -
That sound swell!
‘Cept for those pesky answers Rauner himself put in that questionnaire.
Can’t blame Cosgrove or Personal PAC for that, lol.
Good try!
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:53 am
Liberty,
Sanger’s eugentics dream?
So Theodore Roosevelt was out to destroy a race?
Do you really want the list of people who at that time held some similar views?
Instead, let’s move forward to the 1960s. How about Martin Luther King? He praised Sanger and PP. Did he hate black people?
Comment by Gooner Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:56 am
Care to cite anything to back your outrageous lie Gooner?
Protecting current Illinois law does not equal rolling back abortion rights.
Progressives should support Rauner’s property tax freeze which would affect everyone.
They hide behind the tax the rich rhetoric but Illinois record sales and property taxes affect all income brackets.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:58 am
===operated by a Democratic activist===
A few years back, Rep. Lou Lang tried to run a boycott of Personal PAC over its funding of GOP candidates.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:58 am
I am amused by Liberty’ reasoning.
Let’s apply that reasoning in another context:
1. George Washington owned slaved.
2. George Washington was a founder of the United States.
3. Ergo, per Liberty’s logic, the United States has a collective dream of embracing slavery.
Is that really your argument, Liberty?
Comment by Gooner Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:59 am
Personal PAC is a pro-choice organization, which has strongly supported pro-choice politicians of both parties. Cosgrove is not someone to be double-crossed.
Comment by walker Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:02 am
Lucky Pierre
Progressives should support Rauner’s property tax freeze which would affect everyone.
———
Lol
If property tax is high why would you freeze them permanently? A better plan would be to implement a graduated income tax plan so that property taxes could be reduced without affecting school districts. But wait, Rauner is against a millionaire tax. So this is why he would rather freeze high property taxes instead of reducing them.
Comment by Ok Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:06 am
The crosstab of men/women on whether or not abortion should be between the woman and her doctor is interesting.72% of women agree, and 75% of men agree. That is not what I expected, that more men than women think politicians should stay out of it (though it is a very small difference). Kinda argues against the idea that only misogynists that want women barefoot and in the kitchen want abortion to be illegal.
Comment by Perrid Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:07 am
Rauner is in deep doo doo because of his conflicting positions on this. Clearly he said one thing in 2014 when he was trying to convince people he had “no social agenda” and is doing a different thing now when he’s trying to avoid a primary.
Come general election time, he’s going to pay a big price among suburban GOP women he needs to win if he vetoes this bill. It also hurts his overall credibility because he’s now been caught in two giant whoppers: “I support the grand bargain” and “I support abortion rights including medicaid funding.” No amount of spin is going to change that.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:20 am
@Oswego Willy:
As if nobody has ever criticized Cosgrove’s questionnaires before! Except many people have.
If the methodology of the survey poll were above board, it would be easier to parse whether or not the poll were legit. Cosgrove is not a neutral.
Rauner does own his answers on this subject. Just saying.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:28 am
Pick a name please.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:35 am
Cosgrove has already proven that parsing and finding the suburban women that won’t vote for a governor based on their abortion stance is something Personal PAC and Cosgrove can be a party to defeating someone not in line with whom they feel a difference with.
I’ve seen this movie.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:38 am
Lucky Pierre -
If you support non-profits being exempt from property taxes, you support taxpayer “funding” of abortion. No ifs, ands, or buts.
Comment by Smitty Irving Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 10:47 am
Wow! 39% approved of Trump? That seems really high.
Comment by Ron Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 12:16 pm
“Do you favor taxpayer funded abortion on demand?”
Of course I do. Unwanted pregnancies cost much more.
Comment by Ron Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 12:18 pm
As blue as IL is, I am surprised it is only 53%
Comment by blue collar Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 2:29 pm
@Oswego Willy:
I think that Cosgrove may have helped Quinn slip by Brady in 2010 (among other factors in that squeaker).
I am not sure how effective he is today as he has become something of a lightning rod. Rauner may or may not be harmed by this controversy. Hard to guess what 2018 will be like.
Comment by W Flag Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 3:33 pm
Why would you put any stock in polls of Illinois residents? After all, they elected Blagojevich twice, Obama twice, and Rauner once. They’ve also decided to keep the same politicians in office who have robbed Peter to pay Paul, decimated and robbed the pension funding for decades, and don’t seem to have much of a voice or concern for no budget for the last two years.
Do you really think these are reliable polls?
Comment by Really? Monday, Apr 24, 17 @ 9:35 pm
- W Flag -
When you purposely mislead suburban women, your own words on a questionnaire ate worth the letters typed to make the answer… when your own wife was in ads saying “trust me” and in reality, you can’t trust Diana and Bruce Rauner anymore…
… the erosion of trust the RaunerS have sown will be a problem. It’s up to Cosgrove and Personal PAC to let suburban women know, “you can’t trust the RaunerS when it comes to a social agenda”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 25, 17 @ 8:00 am
The Governor of Illinois has the Line Item Veto. If he approves of most of a bill (or budget) he can cross that line out and sign the rest. He’s all talk. No action.
Comment by Line Item Tuesday, Apr 25, 17 @ 4:49 pm