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* Tribune…
Speaking onstage at the downtown City Club of Chicago luncheon Tuesday, [Bill] Daley prognosticated that “Bruce Rauner cannot win re-election if he does not get a budget right this year. … I don’t care who’s running against him.” […]
He added, “I said at the time that anybody who was running against Pat Quinn would win … but I would say right now … I don’t see how Rauner could go to the voters and say, ‘I’ve done something positive.’” […]
Asked after the event by Chicago Inc. why Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan would agree to a budget deal if holding out would ensure a Democrat in the governor’s mansion when next year’s election is over, Daley said he doesn’t believe Madigan “wants to collapse the state. I think there’s more rationality than that.”
But the brother and son of former Chicago mayors added, “If it’s strictly on politics then, yeah — just let chaos happen.”
The Democrats had better not get over-confident. Nothing is assured in politics. It’s the essential beauty of this business. And while Rauner has definite governing problems, he’s one of the best campaigners at this level that I’ve ever seen. If anyone can win, it’s him.
Also, Speaker Madigan has held out this long, so I wouldn’t be too sure of Daley’s assertion that he doesn’t want to collapse the state. Madigan’s counterpart in the Senate, after all, has been working for months to prevent a complete disaster. Madigan has not put forth any budgetary plans in a year.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 11:35 am
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==The Democrats had better not get over-confident.==
I don’t think Bill Daley speaks for many of us.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 11:37 am
===I wouldn’t be too sure of Daley’s assertion that he doesn’t want to collapse the state.===
Really? Madigan has been in power for decades. If he wanted to “collapse the state,” he’d have done it by now. Instead, he’s worked with Governors from both parties to pass budgets each and every year. Until 2015.
Both sides have some blame to share for the current mess, but only one side is intentionally putting Illinois on the brink of financial ruin. Madigan has never needed to pursue such a reckless course. He’s won the elections and managed the House in such a way as to avoid needing a crisis to get his way.
Rauner, on the other hand, is trying to gain by chaos what he could not gain at the ballot box.
Let’s be careful not to fall into the trap of being fair to both sides to the point that you distort what is actually happening.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 11:42 am
===Let’s be careful not to fall into the trap of being fair to both sides===
If I saw a genuine effort by MJM to get the state out of this, I’d highlight it. So far, I don’t see one.
===Instead, he’s worked with Governors from both parties to pass budgets each and every year. Until 2015. ===
Exactly. And now it’s late June of 2017.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 11:48 am
As someone who was confident in Hillary Clinton s victory, I resemble this headline!
Rauner, I think, is at the point where getting a budget is very important to his chances in 2018.
But, I take Rich Miller’s point.
Comment by doggonit Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 11:57 am
=== If I saw a genuine effort by MJM to get the state out of this, I’d highlight it. So far, I don’t see one. ===
Honestly, I don’t see any way that Madigan CAN get Illinois out of the hole that’s been dug over the last 2.5 years.
When Madigan made the mistake of honestly suggesting that they start the negotiations around revenue at a 5% income tax rate, Republicans pounced mightily.
Anything that Madigan or House Democrats themselves propose will be instantly politicized. That takes us further away from a solution, not closer.
That’s why the GOP is demanding that Madigan put up a plan.
Madigan’s best hope for passing something is to stay as far away as possible. The more he becomes part of the story, the more likely it is that the GOP will once again sabotage a deal and blame the failure on him.
The only reason the GOP is even at the table right now is that Madigan was so far removed from the Senate Grand Bargain negotiations that Rauner could not plausibly blame MJM for the collapse, and ended up wearing the jacket himself.
Comment by Mr Peabody Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:01 pm
Democrats cannot pass a revenue bill that can be pinned on Democrats and have any hope of winning in 2018. That is not an option.
For example, Sue Scherer cannot vote to raise taxes. Period.
Until the IL GOP files its revenue bill and puts more than 50% of the required votes on it, there simply is nothing to negotiate.
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:12 pm
The Democrats can’t be over confident. Heed this warning. Rauner’s machine will look for any hint of questionable behavior in the past of any candidate. They will exploit any flaw as they are trying to do with Pritzker and will use it at the appropriate time to damage that campaign. That’s why the have trackers working now. Not that Rauner is without fault but his past didn’t hurt him in the last election and yes I know this is different. This upcoming campaign is going to be expensive and very ugly. I just have a feeling.
Comment by Ginhouse Tommy Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:16 pm
Why isn’t Bill Daley running for Governor again if hes got the answers.
Comment by DeseDemDose Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:19 pm
@Mr Peabody, I think your analysis is pretty accurate. It’s highly doubtful that even an astute campaigner like Rauner can get reelected if he has never passed a budget. At some point he will need one to have a decent chance of winning again. Madigan understands this and the Governor is going to need a lifeline from Madigan at some point to get a budget. This being the case I don’t see Madigan going along with a budget that he feels is tilted to the interests of the Governor. As you say, so far Madigan has stayed out of negotiations so that makes it harder to legitimately blame him for Rauner twice pulling the plug on grand bargains on the budget. The way I see it Madigan’s hand gets stronger the closer we get to the election.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:28 pm
“I don’t see any way that Madigan CAN get Illinois out of the hole that’s been dug over the last 2.5 years.”
Um what? The disaster we are in was created under decades of Madigan.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:33 pm
What decade did the backlog of bills go from $4.5B in Jan. 2015 to today’s $15.4B?
The Frat Boys really need to find a brighter bunch of bananas.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:48 pm
“For example, Sue Scherer cannot vote to raise taxes. Period.”
Exactly the kind of thinking that got us here. “What’s more important - my election or doing what is right for the state?” And don’t use that line about ‘not being able to do any good if I’m not here’. To me that says the same thing - Job #1 is re-election.
Comment by Out Here In The Middle Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:48 pm
@Ron:
Five state universities have been downgraded to junk bond status, all on Rauner.
The backlog of unpaid bills has tripled to $14 billion, all on Rauner.
Nonprofits around the state are closing.
Schools are threatening not to open.
We have surpassed Kansas as the most poorly governed state in the nation.
Rauner.
Rauner.
Governor Rauner.
@TheDude:
I don’t think Madigan’s hand gets stronger. I don’t think this is about Madigan trying to get leverage. I think Madigan wants a budget.
Madigan understands Bill Daley is wrong. Rauner doesn’t need a budget to get elected, as long as he can blame Madigan for the lack of a budget.
Madigan has every reason to want a budget passed, as long as he is not solely to blame for the tax hike.
Rauner’s only hope for getting re-elected is to have either no budget, and blame Madigan. Or have a budget, and blame Madigan for the tax hike.
That’s always been the end game.
Conversely, an enacted budget with a tax hike proposed by Rauner is the best possible outcome for MJM.
If Rauner actually weren’t a career politician and actually cared more about fixing this state than getting re-elected, we would have solved this two years ago.
Comment by Mr. Peabody Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 12:49 pm
“What decade did the backlog of bills go from $4.5B in Jan. 2015 to today’s $15.4B?”
What decades were 100s of 1,000,000,000s of $s in pension debt created?
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:02 pm
@Ron:
It’s being called a budget crisis, not a pension crisis, for a reason.
Trying to change the subject will not work.
Comment by Mr. Peabody Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:13 pm
Ron, and how does runaway train GRF deficits reduce the accrued pension liability? Seems counter-intuitive.
One debt is akin to your mortgage liability, the other is buying groceries and paying utilities with payday loans.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:20 pm
YO BILL!
Newsflash - Blagojevich won reelection over Topinka.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:28 pm
==The disaster we are in==
The current disaster we are in is every bit as much Rauner’s fault as it is the fault of others.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:34 pm
Demoralized, your memory appears to be terrible.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:49 pm
We have surpassed Kansas as the most poorly governed state in the nation.”
Of course we have, that happened decades ago. Edgar being a great start to it.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:50 pm
My memory is just fine. But then again I’m not dishonest.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:51 pm
And I’m still waiting for one of you “Rauner is the victim” geniuses to tell us all at what point he becomes culpable for anything that is currently happening. We’re at 2 1/2 years and that apparently isn’t long enough so how about you all give us an idea of the time frame when he takes on any responsibility.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:53 pm
Unless the Democrats get a tad bit better at messaging then the Governor can win regardless of whether he’s accomplished anything or not. He has control of the message right now. Until the Democrats figure out a way to take control of the message they aren’t in any position to win anything. I don’t care how much money JB Pritzker has. The Democrats are being outmaneuvered on messaging on a daily basis.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 1:58 pm
Not to mention, right or wrong, plenty of voters in this state view Madigan as the problem, not Rauner.
Comment by Just Observing Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:13 pm
===Not to mention, right or wrong, plenty of voters in this state view Madigan as the problem, not Rauner.===
Hmm…
Madigan - 61% disapproval
Rauner - 58% disapproval
“…plenty of voters in this state view Madigan as the problem, not Rauner”
Polling says… otherwise?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:15 pm
$200,000,000,000.00 of pension debt is the problem.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:20 pm
Unless the taciturn and secretive Mike Madigan comes out messaging like Gov Rauner, the Dems may get a Trumpian surprise in 2018. The nuances explored on this blog are well beyond the average voter. And I get the sense the Dems aren’t heeding the fiscal pain prevailing in their private sector constituency.
Comment by Cook County Commoner Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:57 pm
=Not to mention, right or wrong, plenty of voters in this state view Madigan as the problem, not Rauner.=
The more relevant question is do plenty of voters connect their Democratic representatives to Madigan and are they willing to choose (or even have a someone to consider) a Republican alternative. The unpopularity of Madigan or Rauner doesn’t mean much unless its ascribed to a representative in a threatened seat. One thing is for certain in all of this, Madigan’s seat is certainly safe but the same can’t be said for Rauner’s.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:57 pm
== $200,000,000,000.00 of pension debt is the problem.. ==
Yes, it is a problem … but because that is a long term problem, it just needs to be managed until long term solution. (Tier 2) solves it.
The most pressing problems are (a) the $14.5B or so of short term debt / unpaid bills backlog and (b) the $4B - $7B or so (depending on whose proposed budget numbers you believe) structural between revenue and spending.
Rauner’s own directors say there are no cuts to be made, so math says more revenue is needed, something like $4B - $7B more.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 5:16 pm
I think CCC is right. We anti-Rauner forces have a hell of a fight on our hands. No disrespect to Bill Daley, but he was chairman of Vice President Al Gore’s presidential campaign.
But the truth is Rauner is a fake. Behind the facade, he’s a mean right-wing ideologue. It’s fine with him that there is no budget and it always has been. The truth has a good shot at winning in this election if we don’t blow it.
Cook County Commoner - Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 2:57 pm:
Unless the taciturn and secretive Mike Madigan comes out messaging like Gov Rauner, the Dems may get a Trumpian surprise in 2018. The nuances explored on this blog are well beyond the average voter. And I get the sense the Dems aren’t heeding the fiscal pain prevailing in their private sector constituency.
Comment by James Knell Wednesday, Jun 21, 17 @ 8:48 pm