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* AP…
Madigan demands of Rauner signal doom for budget deal House Democrats are advancing legislation this week designed to get a budget deal by appeasing Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner on the tangential issues he’s demanded.
But a spending plan that has been absent in Illinois for two years appears doomed in advance of Saturday’s start of another fiscal year. That’s because House Speaker Michael Madigan is making his own non-budget demands.
The Chicago Democrat wants Rauner to sign an education funding overall, OK insurance-rate regulation in workers’ compensation and more.
That’s unlikely. Madigan says, “That’s his decision, not my decision.”
* The Question: Percentage chance that this will all be wrapped up by this Friday night at 11:59? And don’t forget to explain your answer.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:41 pm
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0%….. BVR needs 120% of his demands or he goes home
Comment by Wow Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:47 pm
0% chance.
Rauner does not want a budget. He wants to downsize government. Best (and only way) he can do that is by continuing the current course.
Comment by Saluki Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:48 pm
0% Rauner could be given everything he wants and Madigan could even offer to resign and Rauner would still say no. The man simply wants Illinois to burn.
Comment by George Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:49 pm
MJM has moved the goal posts out of the stadium.
Comment by Piece of Work Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:49 pm
ZERO . . . both Madigan and Rauner are nuts!
Comment by East Central Illinois Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:50 pm
0 percent. Still no GOP revenue bill on June 28. Plus if Gov. Gaslight wanted a budget, there’d be a budget.
Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:50 pm
0% MJM poisoned the well with his last minute “extreme right- wing agenda” comments.
Comment by Texas Red Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:51 pm
Two Guys in black hats, just wanting to shut the state down. It could happen anyway if the judge rules that the Medicaid providers must be paid.
Comment by Downstate Dem Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:52 pm
Just like Lucy and Charlie Brown, at the last second he’ll “pull the football.”
Comment by OhTheLulz Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:53 pm
ZERO - Everything is going just as Rauner wants.
Comment by illini Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:53 pm
Nothing will happen. Rauner is social climbing by doing the Koch brothers bidding.This part time governor thingy is a part time job for him.
Comment by DeseDemDose Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:54 pm
0%…. Because Madigan, duh.
Comment by Iggy Stardirt Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:54 pm
2 percent chance of a mushroom caucus saving the day because I know rank and file legislators on both sides are fed up. So are 12 million other people in the cross hairs.
Comment by doggonit Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:55 pm
1.4%
Because the Guv doesn’t want an obtainable budget.
He has one thing to run on: he stood up to corrupt career politician Michael Madigan and stopped him from raising your taxes.
Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 2:58 pm
4.95% whole numbers aren’t acceptable in Illinois government and Lucy couldn’t spull away the football app the time or Charlie Brown would quit trying.
Comment by AC Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:00 pm
The votes so far today are a sideshow. The real test is the revenue bill. If Durkin puts 30 on it, there will be a budget. If there aren’t 30 Republican green lights, it’s all over.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:04 pm
0%. Rauner doesn’t want a budget.
Our only hope is for Republicans to help override the veto as was done in Kansas.
Comment by Chicago 20 Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:04 pm
About the same as me making a hole in one on the golf course. BTW, I don’t play golf.
Comment by Flapdoodle Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:05 pm
How long will it be 11:59pm?
The chances improve every minute beyond when the clock is unplugged. Or don’t they do that anymore? As an eternal optimist, I’m going to say 50-50.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:06 pm
There are some people who are becoming convinced that Rauner is intentionally running the state into the ground until things get so bad he can convince the Federal Government to allow Illinois to file for bankruptcy.
Certain behavior by Rauner plays into this idea, his demands for a budget change from month to month making it more difficult to hone in on an agreement, he’s refused for months to meet with Democratic leaders, earlier this year when a deal appeared close he suddenly pulled the plug on it, at different times in the last two years he has proclaimed that “we’re winning” and his wife says that he’s happier than he’s been in 20 years.
All I know is that he cares more for his reform ideas than he does the citizens of this state.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:06 pm
Oh, I forgot to add, 20% chance for a budget by July 1st. It will only happen if Rauner calls for a leaders meeting IMO.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:08 pm
Only if the same clock is used that was in place when the new White Sox stadium was approved after hours.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:15 pm
There is 0 percent chance that Rauner ever signs a budget and that he ever intended to. The carnage continues, but hey Rauners never been happier
Comment by Redraider Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:18 pm
Zero. Bankruptcy or Bust Bruce won’t allow a hint of anything positive happening on his watch - might throw a wrench into his 20 year happiness run.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:21 pm
Anyone look at the trading of Illinois intermediate bonds lately? Hint, hint. Bet someone is gonna make some money.
Comment by One of Three Puppets Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:24 pm
Zero, unfortunately. The mushrooms aren’t capable of rising up and breaking their shackles.
Comment by anon2 Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:25 pm
Percentage of a budget is 0%.
Comment by One of Three Puppets Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:25 pm
No chance at all. Both will avoid wearing the tax increase collar at all costs, and I think both firmly believe the other will be first to blink. Nothing happens until the schools close and the prisons open.
Comment by Skimisher Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:30 pm
0% chance, our colleges and universities are still open. Bruce won’t stop workin’ until they are all closed and replaced with DeVry-type schools.
Comment by Ryan Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:30 pm
===Percentage chance that this will all be wrapped up by this Friday night at 11:59?===
I think the chances are good, but only if they use Rep. Drury’s clock.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:34 pm
If every single day after Friday becomes a “Continuous Friday”, then exceedingly high possibility, 90%+ percentile
If I factor in the new Rauner mailings and the statement of the “continuous session”… Less than 3.14% and I’m a huge fan of pie, starting with Apple.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:37 pm
I’m an optimist. I think there’s a 10% shot. The consequences are so dire and Rauner will have a hell of time heaping all the blame on Madigan, especially if there’s someone else out there willing to fund counter-messaging.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:42 pm
.0001%.
The Somme in Springfield shall not abate.
Comment by Sulla Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:44 pm
0%. dont see much of an upside for middle class Republican base which unlike Dems is not dependent on government. They pay more and and more taxes to benifit Chicago’s failed schools, a permenant lower class on Medicaid and government worker ballooning pensions. Tax freeze could have been a save face but that’s watered down and meaningless. Seems loke a raw deal. Rauner needs the base.
Comment by Atsuishin Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:45 pm
I think there is a 50% chance that the legislature will have something for the governor. And there is a 20% chance the governor signs it. So that makes it like a 10% chance….
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 3:47 pm
0% because Rauner will never accept a budget that does not put the unions out of business. Rauner knows the Dems will not play a game that destroys the middle class.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 4:04 pm
40% Chance.
Reason for getting a budget this year is ‘trending positive outlook’ to move beyond this year into a new budget fight for next year.
It’s very unlikely that there’s going to be any substantial legislative willingness to stand up for a tax increase vote moving into 2018, particularly if taxes were just increased in 2017.
IMO, Pension reform will be all wrapped up by the US Supreme Court, but it may take until 2020 for that issue to be addressed. I doubt the end result is going to be positive for either the bond holders, or the pension holders.
For example, here’s a little ticking time bomb that’s sitting out there….
Link is: https://mishtalk.com/2017/06/23/illinois-too-broke-to-fix/
You may not like the guy’s approach, but you better pay attention to the numbers.
Think of the reasons to get current budget this way: “We cut a deal in 2017 to get a budget - flawed as it was. But now, all the sudden, there’s more ‘new’ budgetary issues that just pop up. So now (2018), there’s a need for even greater taxes? Who’s willing to vote for increase in state taxes for multiple years in a row?”
Getting a 2017 budget with a tax increase takes future 2018 & beyond tax increases pretty much off the table.
And, it also gives the Governor the ability to look at virtually any legislation that increases taxes/costs (or new financial burdens) on any tax districts as a reason to veto the legislation.
You don’t have to like the reasoning, but sometime you have to find a way to get people to move. And that’s a hard thing to accomplish when no matter what you do, there’s likely fiscal tragedy right around the bend in the road (2018 and beyond).
Comment by Anon Downstate Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 4:05 pm
0% - Neither party wants to accept responsibility for the tax increase needed to balance the budget.
Comment by Enviro Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 4:50 pm
65 percent. They’re juggling hot coals and standing in gasoline at this point. No one can stand schools not opening in September, or a $B a month to Medicaid, or employees treated like social service contractors. All could happen.
No one can take those risks. Hold onto hope for our lives.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 4:55 pm
–0% MJM poisoned the well with his last minute “extreme right- wing agenda” comments.–
LOL, that’s all it took, huh?
Did Rauner and the Frat Boys faint, or did just all their petals fall off, the delicate daisies?
Judging by their own expensive, well-oiled, multi-platform political propaganda hit team, I would have thought they were made of sterner stuff.
Did you read that before you hit “send?” Do you understand what you’re saying? That the Rauner crew falls to pieces over some mild “tough” talk?
You think that’s the image they have of themselves? That they lack testicular virility?
No juice box or fruit cup for you today. You’re makin’ the boss look bad.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 5:09 pm
Mama, there was a middle class long before there were unions and there will be a middle class long after they are gone or morphed into something else. The propaganda hyperbole doesn’t help.
Comment by Skirmisher Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 7:40 pm
1.4%. Because somebody had to do it.
Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 8:01 pm
0%, because winnin’ is everything.
Comment by Me Again Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 8:06 pm
Some very low percent. I can’t say a number. I want to have even a shred of optimism.
“0% MJM poisoned the well with his last minute “extreme right- wing agenda” comments.”
Rauner’s been ripping Madigan in TV ads and in other events. Talk about poisoning the well.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 8:23 pm
0% This isn’t the Cubs. I can’t even hope here. I can’t even put into words how I feel about this.
Comment by Way Way Down Here Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 9:46 pm
A budget? Oh that’s a 99-1 horse at best and I’m not ready to part with even two dollars.
Comment by Shawn Balint Wednesday, Jun 28, 17 @ 10:14 pm
100% it’s the future outcome, that’s why people buy lotto tickets, hope, when they know they will lose
Comment by Rabid Thursday, Jun 29, 17 @ 6:14 am
0%. I look fondly back on the days when the elder Mayor Daley would fill all the water pitchers and turn up the heat and lock the door until an agreement was reached. I love the image of juggling hot coals while standing in gasoline! But I just don’t see Butch and Sundance holding hands and jumping off the cliff together.
Comment by Chicago Barb Thursday, Jun 29, 17 @ 2:05 pm