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* Not only did I forget to post my syndicated column, I also forgot to post my Crain’s Chicago Business column…
During his 2014 campaign, Bruce Rauner pledged to roll back the state income tax rate to 3 percent from 5 percent in just four years, reversing Gov. Pat Quinn’s 2011 tax increase. Rauner’s tax plan was a fantasy. He insisted that his “reforms” would create enough economic growth to mostly replace revenue lost from tax cuts.
There was some tax relief after Quinn lost to Rauner. On Jan. 1, 2015, days before Rauner was sworn in, the income tax rate automatically dropped to 3.75 percent. And while Rauner demanded that the rate be allowed to fall, the Democrats in charge of the General Assembly were the ones legally responsible. And then all heck broke loose. Since Rauner took office, state government has suffered a massive fiscal catastrophe, and state taxpayers are still waiting for the full relief he promised.
One of Rauner’s first trips as governor was to Decatur, to unveil his “right to work” plan. He demanded that the state force labor unions to allow their members to escape paying dues. It immediately poisoned any relationship he could have hoped to build with the legislative majority Democrats, who not only rely on unions for campaign help but tend to be strong supporters of union issues.
Rauner wouldn’t sign any bills to raise the income tax rate to help balance the budget, wouldn’t negotiate a budget and wouldn’t even propose a “real” budget until he got his reforms. The state was paying most of its bills in under 30 days before Rauner became governor. It’s now so fiscally impaired that Illinois government is just getting around to paying bills it incurred in October—eight months ago.
While tax revenue dropped, spending went up because state and federal judges ordered the state to pay its bills and because Rauner kept signing contracts for billions of dollars in goods and services even though he knew there was no money to pay for any of it.
So why didn’t Rauner drop “right to work” when his idea faced such fierce resistance? And, many months later, when he finally did back off, why did he insist on slashing the prevailing wage for trade union workers and tying a property tax freeze to a massive rollback of union rights?
Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:28 am
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“Why.” I think it’s because Bruce, like Trump, aren’t nearly as clever and brilliant as they tell themselves in the mirror (mirrors) each morning. Both having dealt with shady dealings in private sector assumed the public sector would be a cinch to conquer, and get great ratings. Wrong, and wrong.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:36 am
I think the Governor thought he could operate the state like he was the CEO of a company. He failed to understand (and still fails to understand) how government operates. He continually talks of “compromise” and yet refuses to sign anything that doesn’t give him 100% of what he wants. We saw that with the Beth Purvis 90% isn’t good enough comment. I’m not absolving Madigan or others of their role in the lack of compromise. But this Governor seems to relish in his role as the “savior of our state.” And, as you said, approaching things from a religous fervor perspective leaves little room for compromise. Unless and until the Governor gives up his mission to get 100% of his agenda we’ll continue to see gridlock in Illinois government. He believes getting nothing done is better than not getting exactly what he wants. He’s shown that over the past 2 1/2 years. I don’t expect things to change before the next election.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:48 am
==because once again all you look at is the politics==
Perhaps because the politics have everything to do with what has gone on the past 2 1/2 years. You can’t be dense enough to think otherwise.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:51 am
Lucci–
Typically when you allege someone is wrong about some particular claim, you offer counter evidence, not just counter assertions. For instance, you mention numbers, but don’t give any. Could you give some please?
Comment by JPC Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:53 am
Rauner didn’t tell the truth to get elected. He would have lost if he told the truth when asked about his anti-union views. Rauner didn’t tell the truth when asked. Rauner knew his anti-union theology would defeat him. Rauner deliberately didn’t tell the truth when directly asked. He knew what he was doing by not telling the truth as he did.
Politicians like Rauner get no chance to earn governing respect. The moment he did his repulsive anti-union PowerPoint in Decatur was the moment his mask dropped and citizens were shown the real Rauner.
That was an incredibly destructive moment. That was when he went from being a honeymooning governor to losing his arguments. That is when his new administration imploded.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:57 am
Yes Demoralized, for the past 2.5 yrs it’s all politics, and nobody looks good. But the debt math is from the last 25 years. That’s what rules the day, and that’s what makes the politics so impossible.
Madigan keeps saying he was able to make deals with every other governor. That’s because Illinois wasn’t in a debt crisis with every other governor. And Madigan played the biggest hand in creating the debt crisis.
When you’re in a debt crisis there are no easy decisions left, and so the politics completely break down.
Looking at the short-term politics right now is missing the forest for the trees. It’s the debt that rules the day, and it’s the debt that is sinking Illinois.
Comment by Lucci Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:58 am
Demoralized- Denseness sometimes depends on the type of helmet being worn. Some people just won’t let anything past their ears they don’t want to hear or their helmets have a “translation device” that works like Rauner’s Word Jumble. IPI is especially good with tuning things out and rebroadcasting the “translation”.
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:58 am
He is right that it is more than 90% likely the Supreme Court with Gorsuch will impose right-to-work on public employees nationwide.
Comment by Fax Machine Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am
Democrats claim the budget is balanced but we are not making the actuarially required contributions to the pension fund. So in English the budget is not balanced if we are not fully paying what we owe.
There is no plan to shore up retiree health care.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am
I’m not sure it is news that Rauner is an anti-union zealot willing to put ideological opposition to unions above fiscal prudence. There is no evidence that slashing labor protections boosts economic growth or productivity — there are many states with strong labor protections that do quite well economically. Illinois’ downfall has been its unwillingness to collect _state_ revenue in line with state domestic product. Instead, localities tax property heavily with wealthy cities able to insulate themselves from state-wide problems.
Comment by C Ball Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am
I’ve used religious zealot to describe Rauner a time or two.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am
@lucci- you are half right about one thing- Illinois has a debt problem. But only half right. The other half is a revenue problem which creates the debt and prevents Illinois from paying the debt.
Beyond that you fail to make a case, just like Rauner.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am
Well, there is this number: Two years ago, when Rauner became the “Turnaround” governor,the state’s backlog of unpaid bills was about $4.6 billion. As of July 1 of this year it stood at more than $14.7 billion. Does not signal great leadership to me, and I’m not sure we can stand to be turned around much more.
Comment by Decaf Coffee Party Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:00 am
JPC:
Illinois’ pension debt is $130 bil (conservatively) costing the state $9.1 bil in annual interest. We don’t cover that interest payment.
Illinois’ retiree healthcare debt is ~$60 bil costing the state $2.6 bil in annual interest. No payment is made to fund this debt because no payment can be made.
Illinois raised taxes in 2011 and the pension debt went up by $25 bil during the tax hike years. The backlog of bills went down by $2 bil.
We are not even scheduled to cover the full annual interest cost on the pension debt til 2028. I’ll bet you $1 we never get there.
Comment by Lucci Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:01 am
LP- have you found a revenue stream for “working together on a solution” that was listed in the wildly out of balance Rauner budget?
Hypocrite much?
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:01 am
=- Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:59 am:=
So you voted or Pat Quinn? He made full pension payments and balanced the budget
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:03 am
== Rauner didn’t tell the truth to get elected. ==
Rauner flat out lied during the general campaign.
If you were tuned in during the primary (I caught 3 early speeches), there were a few hints of his union busting ideas … and his tendency to lie. I expect politicians to slant their pitches, but not to flat out say one thing to one group and the exact opposite to a different group.
Because of that, I didn’t vote for him in the primary … and I switched parties in the general.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:05 am
I am sick and tired of the tired anti-union rhetoric being spoken as factual evidence by so many Rauner supporters. Union membership dropped as did the Illinois economy. The trend lines between them is purposely ignored by supposed “economic” experts. Union membership and Illinois’ economic peak occurred at the same time. The idea that unions are the cause of our economic malaise is factually ridiculous. It is as though in the Medieval days of claiming that Gypsies poisoned the wells, so Gypsies needed to be driven out.
Good heavens Republicans, stop this nonsense. You are wrecking your economic credibilities with this drivvel.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:07 am
What disturbs me is that, yeah — Rauner lied about unions. When asked about unions during the campaign, his response was always: “That’s not on my agenda.”
Not only was it on the agenda, it was the actual agenda. That’s why he become governor — to destroy unions. Not to provide solutions — or to help folks — it was to destroy AFSCME (especially).
That’s it. And now here we are — two years later. The state is much, much worse off than it was the day before Rauner was elected. AFSCME is still around, still going strong, and Rauner … what? He’s still talking about the same stuff — the Turnaround Agenda — as if talking about it incessently would somehow make it so.
At the very least, someone should have suggested a rebranding of the TA. I mean, is he still gonna run on the ‘Turnaround Agenda?’
Comment by Mr. K. Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:07 am
==It’s the debt that rules the day, and it’s the debt that is sinking Illinois.=
So you agree that Illinois has a revenue problem, right Lucci?
Comment by Passive Agressive Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:07 am
No, Pat Quinn did not make full pension payments.
First of all, they borrowed to pay pensions.
Second of all, what Illinois terms “full pension payments” aren’t full. It’s what the TRS actuary described as “Illinois Math.”
Illinois is not even covering the interest cost on the pension debt. If your credit card debt keeps rising, are you making full payments?
Look in this TRS report and search “Illinois Math”
http://trs.illinois.gov/pubs/actuarial/2014ValuationRept.pdf
No one has made full pension payments because it would be impossible to do so.
Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:10 am
Lucci- post hoc ergo propter hoc
and come back with numbers
While you’re on the Google
Look up McKinney pensions article
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:10 am
How can the Speaker say in 2013 that the pensions are unsustainable and not lift a finger to try to fix the problem for the past two and half years?
He has not acknowledged there is still a problem, only accused those trying to fix it of not being reasonable and having extreme right wing views.
The Speaker’s concern for the middle class in insincere. He has no reservations raising taxes on them to pay for goodies for his benefactors.
Revenue with no reform will not fix the problem.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:11 am
Oops! “Precinct Captain” at 10:10 am is me.
But look, that’s the most informed comment you’ve ever had on CapFax! I’ll let you keep it.
Comment by Lucci Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:11 am
State payments have not been paid in less
than 90 days in the last 10-12 years so it
is a fantasy to say they they were paid in
under 30 days before Rauer.
Comment by DMAN Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:12 am
== this whole article is absurd….How was the state doing with the previous tax rate. everything was f fine? ==
No, but it was a lot better; at least the State was meeting expenses and paying vendors. And the pension argument is a red herring of sorts; they were making the Edgar Ramp payments that will, eventually, retire the pension debt if they stay the course.
The plain truth is Rauner totally mismanaged things, both politically and financially … and he made things drastically worse by his refusal to do a budget, so spending got out of control under his watch after Quinn had cut it 3 years running. Quinn was bailing the ship out, Rauner opened the petcocks and flooded it. We’ll he paying for Rauner’s mistakes for at least a generation.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:14 am
Why do you link to Russian sites Luccci? Also comptroller put employee health debt over time closer to 30. There is also no interest on the pension debt it is an actuarial number that will peak and go down because of teir 2 but you can have your alternative facts but they should not go unchallnged.
Comment by David Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:15 am
According to Business Insider (February 2011)
Only five states do not allow collective bargaining for educators, effectively banning teachers unions. Those states and their SAT/ACT rankings are as follows:
South Carolina – 50th
North Carolina – 49th
Georgia – 48th
Texas – 47th
Virginia – 44th
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:18 am
Rauner is a one-note Nelly.
He has no other ideas to fix us. He is the quack doctor claiming to cure every disease the exact same way.
We got a tax cut in 2015, bigger than we’ve seen in generations. Where was the economic growth? Where were the new businesses? Where were the new international corporations heading to Illinois? Where was the new money being spent?
Ask anyone where they spent their additional wealth - as I have - and they can’t tell you, because the giant tax cut didn’t help.
We’ve seen Rauner’s claim. We’ve lived it. It doesn’t work. Yet Rauner keeps telling us the same disproven garbage.
Enough. This election is about Rauner and how he failed using his own standards. He blew it.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:19 am
== First of all, they borrowed to pay pensions. ==
Quinn didn’t borrow to pay the pension funds.
Blago did, took a pension holiday, and then saddled the pension systems with repayment because the bond repayment has to come out of a portion of the scheduled pension fund payments.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:21 am
“The other half is a revenue problem which creates the debt and prevents Illinois from paying the debt.” - Or you do not make pension and retiree healthcare promises that you can’t pay for. If you are on a budget and do not plan to have a revenue increase then you do not take on new debt. Or in the case of the State you make reforms to try and grow your tax base as opposed to Illinois who will continue to drive away good paying businesses and continue the out migration of its population. The loss of business and out migration were issues even during the temporary tax time when Illinois was near the bottom in coming out of the recession and job creation.
Comment by Arock Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:25 am
For any parent out there whose child wants to major in Education, you would be derelict if you did not steer them away into another profession, given the finances and hatred shown toward paying them so much as a dollar of tax money.
We did.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:26 am
== How can the Speaker say in 2013 that the pensions are unsustainable and not lift a finger to try to fix the problem for the past two and half years? ==
The Speaker passed Tier 2. It took effect in 2011; it is the eventual fix.
All the rest of the rhetoric since then has just been deflection and playing to the public perception the pensions were the problem.
If you admitted the pensions weren’t the problem, then you lose a whipping boy and have to admit too much spending and too little taxation was/is the problem … and very few politicians will do that.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:27 am
Michael (Madigan): Senator (Governor) — you can have my answer now, if you like. My offer is this — nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally. Godfather II
O the drama dripping in irony.
Comment by Big T Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:28 am
Good column Rich. I said before his inauguration that Rauner had an opportunity to work with Madigan on some limitations on public unions. As I suspected and we’ve all learned, Rauner wanted the whole 9 yards. He didn’t want to work with the big bad Madigan. Rauner was a successful businessman with the strong character and financial wherewithal to force his solution on the General Assembly. The result is a damaged state.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:29 am
== State payments have not been paid in less than 90 days in the last 10-12 years so it is a fantasy to say they they were paid in under 30 days before Rauer. ==
But they were down to between 90 and 120 for most the ongoing expenses. What are they up to now, somewhere between 270 and 700 days, depending on the item?
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:30 am
I think Republicans are panicked that their horrific hostage gamble has not paid off.
They bet it all on this play.
You shouldn’t gamble with people’s lives
Edgar tried to tell you.
Well, all I can say is that you better have a better ground game next year.
Paid college republicans are no match for the ground capabilities of a fully unified labor.
Republicans have sure showed they only care about themselves.
Makes it hard to staff campaigns
Rauner can’t even staff his agencies anymore.
But hey in the meantime toddle over to the DCEO website and look at the hundreds of millions of dollars of tax money
Forgiven
Not coming in to us
Gratis the Rauner administration
Love you big business
Rauner is the true welfare queen.
Explain that fiscal conservatives.
No budget but still have corporate welfare.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:30 am
Rauner is definitely a bull in a china shop. But he promised to do everything he could to prevent kicking the can down the road again. There is no doubt among just about everyone that the state was headed for fiscal disaster before the budget stalemate. Changing the state’s ways was always going to be very difficult with Madigan in charge.
Thanks to the Governor for trying.
Comment by Concerned citizen Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:32 am
If Rauner HAD been willing to work at things, and accept part of a loaf each time, he would have gotten half or better of the reforms he claims he wanted.
As I said yesterday, when the Democrats ran his reform bills without the union busting provisions, Rauner no longer fared about the reforms … it wasn’t enough for him. That action told me his agenda wasn’t reform, it was union busting.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:35 am
Rauner’s toast. And we’re toast if the Dems take control of both houses and the mansion.
He will lose votes from the center, and probably lose votes from the far-right. I wish someone had the guts to primary him; he’s such bad news, he could be beat.
Rauner missed his chance by not practicing incrementalism and truthfully facing his political disadvantage. The $20m threats and f-bombs don’t make for a good team in the long run, either.
bleh. The US doesn’t need politicians like him.
Comment by cdog Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:35 am
I just reread his TA and with the exception of workers comp and ptax the rest is all magic pixie dust that will some how be unleashed it unions and democrats are destroyed . ptax can only be fixed with a progressive tax because we barley touch the quarter of all income in this state made by those over 200k a year
Comment by David Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:35 am
RNUG - WHICH pension holiday? Blagojevich / Filan’s 2003 bond sale or Madigan’s 2006 / 2007 (which was paid back)?
Comment by Smitty Irving Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:43 am
Rauner wanted to be Scott Walker in this regard. He overlooked that Scott Walker actually had a legislative majority in both chambers.
Comment by ZC Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:47 am
= Or you do not make pension and retiree healthcare promises that you can’t pay for.=
When you invent a time machine you can go back and fix that.
Some of us think it is wise to fix the issue we are facing now.
You now, here in reality. Where math counts and only serves to show that Rauner’s Kansas fantasy is just that, a fantasy. It isn’t real and is proven not to work. Same as trickle down and Reaganomics.
Paying the bills is proven to work though, Minnesota is proof.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:49 am
Rauner showed that losing an election isn’t as bad as having a guy claim to represent your party, and then reveal himself to be a Rauner, killing the party with his horrid disregard for anything or anyone but himself.
ILGOP you have gutted yourself believing and supporting a millionaire charlatan. Rauner wrecked ILGOP.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:54 am
Lucci, if you really know so much about the debt situation stop cherry picking numbers.
“Illinois raised taxes in 2011 and the pension debt went up by $25 bil during the tax hike years.”
There’s a plan in place to get the system to 90 percent funded in 2045. Go take a look at any of the pension system reports. You can see, year by year, what the projected payments and interest are and what the unfunded liability is projected to be.
TRS for example is projected to make the turn in FY2031 and the unfunded liability — the debt — will start to come down and then drop some $50 billion over the next 15 years.
But to get there, you have to make the payments now. That pension debt was rising before the tax increase. Most of the tax increase money went to make pension payments. Why? So you could stay on course to pay these things down.
Let’s be a little more honest and discuss the full perspective of the situation. And I’m looking forward to your 2031 comment praising the state for turning the corner on its debt.
Now, we could speed things up if you want to back a higher tax rate.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:01 am
Walker knows government, while Rauner discovered that he can’t own our government, strip it, and then sell it to his billionaire friends as a Midwestern Sri Lanka.
I bet Rauner carries a piture of Cecil Rhodes around in his wallet.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:01 am
His friends are call money for state public higher ed pork now.
Comment by David Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:02 am
RNUG if we are just paying the interest on the pension debt and not the actuarily required principal payment we are continuing to borrow which is why the unfunded liability keeps increasing.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:22 am
@RNUG: Thanks for your timely and *well-informed* comments.
Comment by UIC Guy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:26 am
LP - The liability is increasing, because, as our gracious host has noted more than once, the pension ramp calls for that until the late 2020s. You know, the ramp Wall Street insists we stick to.
Comment by Smitty Irving Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:28 am
How much do taxes have to go up in the future to pay the increased pension ramp payments and unfunded retiree health care?
Pretty optimistic to think the problem is suddenly solved and requires no further action.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:34 am
So now that we have a budget, the GOP is broken and the Governor is headed towards defeat in ‘18…
What is the plan to rebuild our state’s economy?
What is the plan to stop residents from fleeing to other states?
What is the plan to bring manufacturing jobs back to Illinois?
Comment by sulla Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:38 am
To the Post,
I asked this governor for 3 things to start his tenure as our governor.
1) FY2015 Fix - Rauner had the Good Friday Massacre cuts that compounded the reality people bought into that Rauner is untrustworthy.
2) FY2016 budget - K-12 funding only happened, and judicial decree became the new governing for Illinois.
3) Labor Peace - no AFSCME contract, phony comparisons to other agreements that ignore, for starters, the health care prong, and… Decacur.
Yep, Decatur.
The PowerPoint that revealed Raunerism in Decatur, “the lion’s den of Labor”.
Rauner completely misled everyone and their brother on his (Rauner’s) labor intent as governor.
Let’s look at Rauner and Labor…
Fair Share… Property Tax Freeze… Right to Work zones… AFSCME contract negotiations… and Decatur.
There was zero need to go after private sector trade unions unless the goal was to destroy all unions. This was either a mistake of such gross negligence by the Rauner Crew, or Rauner thinking that destroying all Labor will work out just fine with (at the time) alleged veto proof Democratic majorities (Franks, Dunkin, and Drury refute that truth, but the picture was Rauner’s to frame).
Had Rauner “solved” my 3 asks, and didn’t go after trade laborerers, where could I beef?
Honestly, where could I find fault?
I couldn’t. I couldn’t because it would’ve meant an agreement on budget(s) and a clear gap between attacking all of Labor and the splintering of public and private, trades and non-trades. As a Republican, I could find 80%.
I woulda seen trust.
I woulda seen leadership.
I woulda seen… compromise, political savvy moves, funded agenda points, long term politics at play, a building of the ILGOP, and distinct political differences to attract independent voters… by budgetary wins, policy wins, real tangible gomerning, and I woulda been shown how wrong I was
“But… Decatur”
I wasn’t wrong. Many weren’t wrong.
It’s up to all of Labor to do what needs to be done… come 2018.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:41 am
LP:
Tier II was pension reform. And the BIMP bill that passed includes further pension reform. You don’t count anything as pension reform if it doesn’t somehow take away from current members, which the Supreme Court has said you couldn’t do. So they are making changes going forward which is the only option you have. Don’t sit here and tell us that no pension reform has passed when it has.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:50 am
The Supreme Court has not ruled on the consideration model so it has not said there is no way for tier one benefits to be changed or reduced
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:57 am
==Rauner’s tax plan was a fantasy.==
and when Rich Miller pressed him for specifics on his TA agenda (in early 2015), Bruce could only find $500 million.
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:59 am
The fact remains LP that you are wrong when you say that no pension reform bills have passed. We had Tier II a few years ago and now the BIMP bill that just passed.
And LP, it’s not “consideration” if you’re forced to choose between two scenarios that cut your pension. Once again you’re being dishonest.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:59 am
==He will lose votes from the center, and probably lose votes from the far-right. I wish someone had the guts to primary him; he’s such bad news, he could be beat.==
All primarying Rauner will do is weaken him for the General Election. Look, I don’t have the best interests of Rauner or the Republican Party at heart, so it should tell you something that I get a little giddy every time people talk about primarying him.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:04 pm
== we are continuing to borrow which is why the unfunded liability keeps increasing. ==
That is “borrowing” in the sense that we are increasing the IOU that the State owes itself. It is not “borrowing” in the sense we are going to a bank and getting money.
Yes, I’m splitting hairs but there is a big difference in how strictly and how soon you have to pay back the money.
And, as others pointed out, this is expected. The Edgar Ramp laid out the whole thing.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:07 pm
The comments that followed Rich’s column in Crain’s were 125 and counting. I would estimate 85% of them were negative towards the column and the conclusions.
Most seem to center around the “Right to Work” provisions as “Killing Unions.”
The comments at this blog site for this article trend in the opposite direction.
Different audiences. Different perspectives. Everyone has taken a position and I see no budging. Makes one wonder which position truly represents the voices of voters.
Guess we will find out after the election.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:16 pm
== The Supreme Court has not ruled on the consideration model … ==
I agree. In fact, the IL SC hinted in the SB-1 decision that there was a way, but they didn’t spell it out.
Pretty much everyone agrees consideration is a valid way to modify contracts. I’ve cited past examples, like the State transitioning from non-coordinated to SS coordinated. The one common factor was those changes carried a new / increased benefit in exchange for an increased cost (that may or may not have been proportional).
I’ve even said the voluntary buy-out and Tier 3 / 401K switch offerings in the current bill are most likely constitutional. The consideration doesn’t even have to be equal, but it does have to be good enough to get people to accept it.
Where a number of us disagree is about the need for it to be voluntary. The one Cullerton / Rauner proposal did not include “keep what you have”; that has to be a choice or it is not voluntary, it is coerced.
And FWIW, even the IPI has conceded you can not force a choice on the existing pension.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:23 pm
Nice article. I read it a few days ago. Rauner drove the state to the edge of the abyss because he wants to bust up the types of people who helped enrich him.
What exacerbates the religious zealotry of union members is what is happening in America and Illinois. Multimillionaires and billionaires are on a nationwide quest to strip the economic protections and political voices of millions of workers.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:25 pm
–Rauner wouldn’t sign any bills to raise the income tax rate to help balance the budget, wouldn’t negotiate a budget and wouldn’t even propose a “real” budget until he got his reforms.–
That unilateral, willful course of action somehow became known as a “budget impasse.”
Some of the people, all of the time, believe that deliberate destruction is a legitimate course of action for an agenda that they could not articulate the benefits of beyond shallow talking points.
You had two years to sell it like Big Kids; if you coulda, you woulda.
Some of the GOP members that broke ranks over the weekend called Rauner’s path “burning down the state” and “immoral.” I’ve believed that for some time.
Kind of like “burning down the village to save it” or Lenin’s “breaking eggs to make an omelette.”
Despite his delusions, Rauner ain’t no revolutionary. He’s a fancy-pants reactionary deadbeat with a union obsession.
The damage to real people has been done. We’ll be cleaning up for a while.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:28 pm
I would like to add that the cost of state workers’ salaries, benefits and pensions added to our current fiscal crisis, to the degree that they did. I have no problem saying that. If that’s the hardest thing I have to do today, what an easy day I’ll have.
Low state income taxes for decades, no will to balance budgets and deal with spending, workers’ salaries, benefits, pensions and other factors contributed to the mess we have today.
I say this because a good leader brings people together to fix problems and doesn’t demonize them, fight to end their protections and rights and force sacrifices on them that are too harsh.
Another illustration is that we could have had the AFSCME contract settled by now with a reasonable governor who wanted money-saving concessions from state employees. But the irony with Rauner is that not only do we not have a contract, taxpayers are losing too now, in Rauner’s zealous refusal to resume negotiations. As the British say, clever by half.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 12:35 pm
Demoralized is RNUG, President Cullerton as well as a majority of the Senate also being dishonest about the merits of the consideration model?
It would be nice if the Speaker would allow a vote on this sometime this century so we can have the Supreme Court give the final word.
Then we can see if this is an extreme right wing position or if he is just using poisonous rhetoric to misdirect the voters.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:17 pm
Rich, I really enjoyed your column. I read some of the comments and had to stop. Do those people actually understand government?
Comment by ILGOV2018 Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:35 pm
Grandson of Man, how does one pay for this labor peace you and Oswego Willy think is so achievable?
CPS has tried to be reasonable with CTU and get them to over time pay the full 9% of their share of the pension like other state and city workers do instead of the 2% they are currently paying and all hell broke loose.
All the Democratic candidates for Governor agree with CTU even though they are bankrupting CPS through their work rules and unaffordable retirement benefits.
The Speaker won’t concede one inch to the private sector business interests in this state if Labor or the Trial Lawyers object. All of the Democratic candidates agree any concessions are impossible.
How is comprise possible when only one side- the Governor budges?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:35 pm
==ILGOP you have gutted yourself believing and supporting a millionaire charlatan. Rauner wrecked ILGOP.==
Hrm….Before Rauner the Republicans were locked into super minorities in both the House and the Senate. Under Rauner they’ve picked up seats in the Senate and are out of the super minority in the House. How is the ILGOP gutted again?
Comment by so... Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:39 pm
===…how does one pay for this labor peace you and Oswego Willy think…===
Labor Peace was possible. Always possible.
Rauner choosing to openly attack prevailing wage, collective bargaining and pushing RTW without the votes and holding the whole state hostage, including social services and higher ed was never a path to Labor Peace. Ever.
The rest of your drivel? “Easy”
Rauner refused to get 60 and 30 and chose to take on Labor… Head On.
Now it’s not Rauner’s fault for the fights he wanted to fight?
Oh boy.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:40 pm
LP
RNUG is arguing the same thing I did with regard to consideration in that if the options don’t include keep what you have (or as he has pointed out don’t include some sort of increase in benefits in exchange for an action), then it’s probably not going to fly. Why do you think they took the consideration portion out of the BIMP? Because they knew it was constitutionally suspect and they didn’t want to get the other changes held up by a sure court challenge. I’m guessing they may come back to that portion of the “plan” at some point.
You argued that Madigan hasn’t allowed any votes on pension reform. You’re wrong. He’s allowed (and passed) two in the past few years. That’s where you cross the line into dishonesty.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 1:47 pm
So passing Tier two was passed in 2010. Is that a few years ago?
One handed golf clap for the herculean efforts of the Speaker on helping to solve the unsustainable pensions for the past 7 years.
Why not at least call the Senate bill for a vote?
Why did the Speaker take the consideration portion out of BIMP?
Because he won’t lift a finger to help to solve the problem that he, more than anyone else in Springfield enabled for decades. That is his legacy.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 2:20 pm
Lucky Pierre @10:11am. You suggest Madigan relly has made no real effort to deal with pensions over the years. This is not true. I was at those anti Quinn/ Madigan rallies in Springfield. We have not forgotten. It was Quinn and Madigan who began the whole pension reduction debacle. The Supreme Court made their conclusions known. But before they did, Afscme offered to increase contributions from employees by 1%. Realistically not much help agreed, but it was not enough according to Madigan. They should have taken the 1%. But nope. Greedy is as greedy does. Small moves Ellie, small moves.
Comment by Generic Drone Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 2:29 pm
LP, yes -demoralized- and myself are saying the same thing.
First off, there is a consideration portion in the BIMP … the one where you agree to take a lower AAI in exchange for an immediate cash payment. And there is the option to switch from the DB Tier 2 plan to the mixed DC Tier 3 / “401K”. They ate valid because you can refuse to do so with no penalty.
What was taken out was forcing Tier 1 members to choose between their AAI and having future raises count in the FAC. There was no “keep what you have” option; that is what make it very likely to be found unconstitutional.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 3:03 pm
LP
What I said is true. You don’t count anything as “pension reform” unless it takes away from current members. Don’t turn that argument into no pension reform has passed. It has. Tier II fixes a lot but people like you refuse to acknowledge what it did because you’re focused like a laser on taking benefits away from Tier I members. You are as bad as Rauner. Unless you get 100% of what you want then it isn’t good enough. We’ve got Tier II. Now we have a Tier III 401K option. Quit with the nonsense that the Speaker hasn’t done anything with regard to pensions. He and the General Assembly have. Twice now. Perhaps you should work on talking about things honestly instead of simply parroting the Governor’s talking points.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 3:34 pm
Truth hurts Demoralized. Moody’s is not fooled by the Speaker’s inaction on pensions. Why are you?
Looks like national attention brought on by the impasse forced the ratings agencies to take a much closer look at Illinois.
They are not nearly as concerned about the increase in the bill backlog under the Governor over the past two years but the pension time bomb the Speaker enabled for decades.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 5:52 pm
What you said is not true . Senator Cullerton’s pension bill is not 100 percent of what the Governor wants. Nice try though
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 6:39 pm
- Lucky Pierre -
Dr. Purvis made clear, Rauner can’t take 90% of a win.
So I guess 91%… “ish”… and above is where Rauner needs agreement?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 6:47 pm
We are talking about pensions OW.
Demoralized said the Governor and I are terrible because we are supporing Senator Cullerton’s pension bill.
The Democrats who voted for it and the Senator are still ok with him though.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 6:57 pm
===Senator Cullerton’s pension bill is not 100 percent of what the Governor wants.===
===Governor and I are terrible because we are supporing Senator Cullerton’s pension bill.===
The question is… 100%, 90%, Rauner needs to find what can get 60/71 votes in the House… then what can be reconciled with Cullerton too.
You have no idea how compromise works(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 7:03 pm
Of course I do. The Governor supports the Senate President’s pension bill that passes the super majority democratic Senate.
The Speaker ignores the bill for 2 1/2 years.
The Governor is accused of wanting 100 percent when the Speaker won’t move 10 percent.
Read the Wall Street Journal today. They can fill you in
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 7:20 pm
===Of course I do. The Governor supports the Senate President’s pension bill that passes the super majority democratic Senate===
Then Rauner should put 71 House members on the stairs.
That would show Madigan. Why won’t Rauner?
Rauner needs to find his votes and put pressure by showing his votes.
Heck, the “Brave 15″ showed Rauner he was wrong. Don’t need to read the Wall Street Journal on that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 7:26 pm
You are consistent. Speaker Madigan can do wrong for the #1 Republican in Oswego
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 7:37 pm
===You are consistent. Speaker Madigan can do wrong for the #1 Republican in Oswego===
Rauner isn’t a Republican, and since Rauner can’t fully grasp what Edgar and Ryan tried to explain…
… it’s not that you can’t understand governing, you just won’t understand governing.
Had Rauner worked the members… instead… Rauner had the “Brave 15″ teach Rauner instead.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 7:41 pm
Why aren’t there any brave Democrats who are independent of the Speaker?
An army of one in the House- Scott Drury.
For Governor, so far I count Chris Kennedy. But even he is indirect in his critique.
The clocks aren’t that nice.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 8:02 pm
=== Read the Wall Street Journal today. ===
Right after the informative Fox and Friends. LOL
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 8:04 pm
===Why aren’t there any brave Democrats who are independent of the Speaker?===
The mere fact it took 13 and not 4 Republicns to override refutes your snark. So there’s that…
===An army of one in the House- Scott Drury===
That’s accidental snark…
===For Governor, so far I count Chris Kennedy. But even he is indirect in his critique.===
Wonder how many GA Raunerites will want to run with Rauner, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 8:05 pm
The largest circulation newspaper in the U.S., the WSJ made its bones as a business newspaper and pioneered new types of feature writing in American journalism (for example, its quirky middle-column feature called the “Ahed” and longer form, in-depth reports called “leders”). As the company was purchased by Australian media mogul Rupert Murdoch in 2007, the WSJ pivoted to cover more general news in addition to business news. The WSJ is still brand X among daily business publications in the world. Its editorial page is a bastion of American free-market conservatism, using the motto, “free markets, free people.” With former Republican speechwriters and strategists such as Karl Rove, Peggy Noonan and Bill McGurn writing columns, the WSJ editorial page is often a must-read for Republicans in Washington. And left-leaning readers should not dismiss the WSJ edit page just because they may disagree with its positions. It has won several Pulitzer Prizes for editorials and columns that feature a clear thesis, backed up by thorough fact-based reporting and bold arguments. *
https://www.forbes.com/sites/berlinschoolofcreativeleadership/2017/02/01/10-journalism-brands-where-you-will-find-real-facts-rather-than-alternative-facts/#11c1f2eee9b5
Yeah real fringe publication there
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:22 pm
- Lucky Pierre -
Same Walk Street Journal…
===The Governor’s capitulation may have been triggered by the latest downgrade by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in the state bond rating to near junk status, with a warning that another downgrade could come this summer. Mr. Rauner doesn’t want to run for re-election next year as Governor Junk.===
“Mr. Rauner doesn’t want to run for re-election next year as Governor Junk.”
If the Wall Street Journal thinks Rauner could be Governor Junk, who am I to argue?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:29 pm
LP: “Demoralized said the Governor and I are terrible because we are supporing Senator Cullerton’s pension bill.”
I think misguided is a better term. The Senate plan contains/contained things that willl clearly be found unconstitutional, so why bother to run the bill? I’m a Dem, and I say the Senate Dems are wrong, so I guess not everybody blindly follows party. Try it sometime
Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 9:52 pm
Lucky Pierre, is his name.
If google tne urban dictionary, you’ll find out what’s important to this Frat Boy.
Goldberg, Lance, they made a choice as to whom they wanted to represent the givin’ and the takin’.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:54 pm
Impressive. If the WSJ needs marketing help, you should apply. I prefer my state news journalists to be ones that cover the state. Give me the Rich’s, Amanda’s, Pearson, McKinney, etc. rather than national journalists who tend to be lazy about state news. Obviously a piece claiming the state’s problem is due to union capture shows they’ve only been talking to one side.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 10:58 pm
VMan, you go yard.
Bless you for your common sense and humanity.
No worries, my crew of blue collar union geezers are with you til the last dog dies.
Which is nice.
Comment by Word ski Wednesday, Jul 5, 17 @ 11:03 pm
==Demoralized said the Governor and I are terrible because we are supporing Senator Cullerton’s pension bill.==
Yeah. That’s exactly what I said. Not. Once again you’re the victim. What I said (since you have a difficult time comprehending) is that you are wrong that the Speaker hasn’t passed any pension reform. He’s been part of two pension reform bills.
==The Governor is accused of wanting 100 percent==
What other conclusion are we to make when Beth Purvis says that they got 90% of what they wanted in the education bill but that wasn’t good enough? You are perhaps one of the most dishonest commenters on this board.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 7:34 am
==They are not nearly as concerned about the increase in the bill backlog under the Governor over the past two years==
LOL. Are you kidding me? Do you just make up stuff as you go along? That is easily proven false. Why do you say things that are clearly untrue? Again. Dishonesty. That’s all you have.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 7:36 am
LP:
In case you’re unable to read, here’s what Moody’s said they were looking at:
The review will assess the budget plan’s credit implications and address the likelihood of further deterioration in the state’s most pressing credit challenges:
· Pension liabilities (appx. $251 billion in FY ending June 30, 2016)
· Backlog of unpaid bills (appx. $15 billion)
How do yet from that they are more concerned with one over the other? You don’t. Because you just made it up. See. You’re comments are easily disprovable.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 7:40 am
Which do you think is easier to fix?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 7:43 am
No criticism of responsible Democrats like Senator Cullerton and the Democrats who passed the bill that modifies future benefits from tier one, just the Governor and a poster on a blog.
Were we talking about the education bill? Nope
Any criticism of the Speaker for not demanding 100 percent of what he wants? No compromise from him after two and a half years.
You are projecting dishonesty, but you know that
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 7:54 am
I’ve criticized the Speaker on multiple occassions. And I’ve criticized the bill the bill that attempts to change Tier 1 benefits by offering a coerced choice. As for the education bill reference that was in response to your comment that the Governor doesn’t want 100%. If you can’t keep track of what you are arguing don’t blame me. And which is easier to fix? What does that have to do with anything. You said they were more concerned about one over the other. They didn’t say any such thing. You deflect and twist around in whatever manner is necessary to continue your tired “yeah, but” commentary where everything circles back to Madigan. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Madigan shares a lot of the blame. But so does the Governor. Some of us are just honest enough to have those discussions. You aren’t nor have you ever been.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 8:17 am
And if you want me to criticize those who favor the pension bill, including Senator Cullerton, I will. I offer my criticism of anyone who supports what is more than likely an unconstitutional bill. And I’ll go back to my criticisms of the last bill that attempted to change Tier 1 benefits as well that was declared unconstitutional, including anyone who supported it.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jul 6, 17 @ 8:18 am