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Rematch for Seals?

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Illinois

* Congressional Quarterly’s online service reports that Dan Seals is gearing up for a rematch with Congressman Mark Kirk.

Illinois Democrat Dan Seals, who ran a respectable losing campaign against Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk last year, appears to be gearing up for a 2008 rematch in the stateâ€™s 10th District north of Chicago.

Seals, a marketing executive who took 47 percent against Kirk in 2006, filed a statement of candidacy last December with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) that allows him to raise money for a 2008 bid. Sealsâ€™ still-active campaign committee reported to the FEC last week that it raised $12,800 in the first three months of this year â€” an indication that he is preparing for a second campaign. Seals has about $37,000 in his campaign account.

Lauren Beth Gash, a Democratic activist and former Illinois legislator who lost narrowly to Kirk as the 2000 Democratic nominee, told CQPolitics.com that it appears Seals will wage a rematch campaign.

* And somebody sent me a link to this site, which is run by people who hope to draft Air Force Lt. Adam Kinzinger to run as a Republican against GOP Congressman Tim Johnson next year.

* This is a 2008 congressional open thread. Have at it…

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 8:55 am

Comments

This would be a great rematch. I think Seals could take Kirk out in 2008 due to the hot Democratic primary and the possibility of having Barack The House as the presidential nominee. Look for the NRCC to dump a ton of money into keeping Kirk. While some people may scoff at that, the Illinois GOP has lost Phil Crane’s seat and could lose Denny’s seat if they’re not careful. Kirk is an incumbent with leadership potential. Losing that seat would be devastating.

Also, Tim Johnson should watch his back. However, voting against the troop surge was a good idea in the political sense.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 9:49 am
No one likes a loser. Mr. Kirk won re-election in a tough Republican year. To believe 2008 would be a repeat is illogical. If Mr. Seals couldn’t defeat Mr. Kirk last year, his chances become even more remote next year.

2008 will not be 2006. Bush Derangement Syndrone can only take the Democrats so far. They are in the majority in Congress, and now, they are also responsible for what happens in Iraq and on other issues.

So far, we have been seeing nothing coming out of Congress except delicately worded non-binding nonsense. Constant criticism can only go so far. The Democrats weren’t elected to fingerpoint, but that is all they have offered to voters since January.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 10:06 am
The lieutenant’s site with the “school” patch picture is a joke. Take the list of accomplishments–that he was “nominated” for an award. The same operatives who took apart John Kerry’s Vietnam War record would have a field day with him.

Sure, there may be some disgruntleds in Johnson’s district, but there was a very contentious fight when he first got in. Some of those wounds haven’t healed.

Johnson may have to watch his back, but not because of this kid.

Comment by Ma Deuce Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 10:09 am
VanillaMan, I’m gonna disagree with you in part. I think sometimes candidates have to build name recognition with a first run, then build on it with a second run. That being said, if Seals couldn’t win in a huge Dem year, it may be tough for him in ‘08.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 10:15 am
Seals lost by only 53-47 in his ever first race for office, with very little DCCC support. Like Melissa Bean before him, he could definitely take the suburban district in his second run.

And Vanilla Man, I think it is rude to say that Republicans suffer from Bush Derangement Syndrome. GOP leaders may have been incompetent and divorced from reality, but it is not right to poke fun at their ineptitude by comparing it to some kind of mental illness. Better to describe hardline conservatism accurately - as a selfish, cruel worldview that runs against the Gospel and the Constitution.

Comment by Kuz Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 10:26 am
I realize conventional wisdom is that Dems won’t have two big gains in a row, but…

What is the positive message of the GOP in 2008. The Iraq War? Standing by the criminality of the Bush administration?

But maybe the GOP can win in 2008 by going negative against the Democrats on social hot button issues…?

Or maybe the GOP voters will be more motivated than Democrats?

I see the Dems gaining seats in 2008 at all levels of gov’t. The Republican policies have been tried and they failed. Time to try something else.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 10:42 am
Seals came from way behind in the final months of the campaign last time, and things could have indeed been different if Ice-Cold Rahm had coughed up significant money. But Kirk escaped a much wiser candidate and has already blown away the first quarter fundraising by Seals- over $650k for Kirk compared to

Comment by team america, world police Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 11:16 am
that was supposed to finish “compared to

Comment by team america, world police Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 11:18 am
OK- that was supposed to finish “less than 40k for Seals.” The computer IS goofythis morning.

Comment by team america, world police Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 11:19 am
The Democratic Congressional leadership sure isn’t helping a guy like Seals. 2006 was a “protest” election, but they are blowing their goodwill through partisan grandstanding that is welcomed by only a small percentage of the population, mostly DU posters.

Comment by Bubs Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 11:41 am
Often people have to run twice to win in taking out an incumbent—on top of that, all indications are an even better year for Democrats in 2008 with the polling staying miserable for Republicans and no real indication anything will change.

On top of that, it’s a Dem majority District in a Presidential year.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 12:03 pm
On what issues are Democratic activists alienating swing voters?

Repeating things you want to be true doesn’t make them any more true.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 12:04 pm
Bubs,

Partisan grandstanding?

On the same day that the DoD said that there were no ties between Al Quaeda and Saddam, Cheney said the opposite.

Every time that the Democrats do ANYTHING, Bush and Cheney say that it “aids the terrorists.”

The Democrats couldn’t possibly match that level of partisanship.

The result? People are incredible tired of Bush and Cheney and as long as those two keep talking, votes go to the Democrats.

Seals ran a good race but was underfunded and was a relative unknown.

In 2008, with the likely GOP candidate either McCain, Guiliani, or Brownback, the GOP will get crushed nationally and in Illinois the Dems may be able to pick up at least two seats.

The real question isn’t whether Kirk will hold his seat. He won’t. The real question is whether the GOP will hang on to the seats of Roskam and Hastert.

As long as the national GOP continues with its absymal partisan attacks on anybody who would questions this horribly unpopular war, the GOP does not stand a chance in Illinois.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 12:47 pm
With Obama on the ticket and the GOP getting shellacked nationally I think skeeter is right. Seals will beat Kirk and the GOP will be seriously on defense in IL-06 and IL-14 and perhaps IL-11.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 1:04 pm
I have heard a rumor that Linda Chapa LaVia will be running for the 14th and announcing sooner than later. I think that if its a good a Dem year there may be a chance but this is going to be a tough race unless the GOP kill themselves in a bloody primary…

As far as the 10th goes…I think Seals can be very successful on what I call the Bean strategy. With as good as a Democratic year as it was in 06, 08 is presidential year and Dem turnout is always higher…

Also has anyone heard any rumors on the 11th?

Comment by ndpotus Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 2:08 pm
Hmmm? Bush wil be gone, so will a lot of the motivation.
Has Seals moved/will he move into the district by then?

Comment by Wumpus Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 3:05 pm
On the con side for Seals: 2008 unlikely to be as much of a “wave” year; Kirk now on his guard and prepared; now that Kirk’s a moderate suburban Republican minority he may be able to tap into the Beth Coulson Syndrome.

On the plus side: Seals is more experienced; Kirk can’t deliver for his district the same way; and, potentially, OBAMA.

I think Jerry Weller is the most endangered Republican in Illinois. The Dems really need to recruit a top-tier challenger to at least shake that guy, see if he comes loose.

Comment by ZC Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 3:22 pm
ZC, good point. Someone like Careen Gordon could take Weller out. Weller is not a nice person (please note, Rich, that I sanitized that phrase) and his ties to the Guatemalan dictator really make me wonder if he pays attention to the pulse of his district. He has benefitted over the years from weak competition and decent numbers for Dubya in the 11th. He does have a good tactioner in his corner, though.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Apr 16, 07 @ 5:36 pm
Ma Deuce,

I just typed the Lieutenants name into google. His awards are for saving a girls life who was being attacked by a man with a knife. The man (as i researched) is being charged with attempted homicide. So I think maybe the awards ARE deserved? Id love to see the John Kerry folks try.

Also, the school patch isnt a big deal, at some point Im sure he was in pilot training, but that doesnt mean he wasnt in the desert either (which the site says he was.) So, how is the school patch a cutdown.

Finally, are you REALLY trying to cut down a a military officer? Very very nice…good luck with that. You should be proud of yourself.

Comment by Jim Carlson Tuesday, Apr 17, 07 @ 12:09 am
Jim Carlson, I am a retired military pilot. No one is dissing them, but I don’t buy the simplistic argument that they are above criticism.

Yes, I read the stories about him helping a maiden in distress. You apparently must not have read the website, which doesn’t say anything about the lieutenant receiving ANY medal. It says, “He has also been nominated for the Airman’s Medal, the highest non-combat award given in the Air Force, as well as the Valley Forge Medal, the highest award given in the Air National Guard.”

He may have broken up an assault, but he has received no medal. He’s only been nominated, as I was for many medals (only to have them downgraded or denied).

If he had received a medal, you can bet this website would have made it the headline.

Like I said before, if he’s only been nominated, and he were to publish anything that said he’d received the medal, primary opponents would eat him alive.

Does the site say he was in the desert? It only says “in the skies over Iraq and Afghanistan”, which usually means flying from Incirlik AB, Turkey.

Comment by Ma Deuce Tuesday, Apr 17, 07 @ 8:51 pm
Ma Deuce,

Ya it says he was in other than turkey if you read articles other than the website. He was in Afghanistan until March.

Oh well, thanks for your service. I just think seeing a former military pilot throw stones is bad form. You arent Jerry Clark by chance are you? Sure seems like you are.

I also found the Illinois Review Article from the google search and see that you commented many times on that as well….you really have something against this guy. Either you 1) have a dog in the fight (i.e. you are jerry clark, Tim Johnsons chief of staff) or 2) are really bored and feel it necessary to fight against Kinzinger so hard.

Either way, its your choice. Ive just never seen a military pilot criticize the accomplishments of another, especially a younger one who has done alot in his life.

Comment by Jim Carlson Wednesday, Apr 18, 07 @ 12:25 am