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Durkin says the votes are locked up

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Illinois

Speaker Madigan said last week that there was a “good possibility of an override” in his chamber, noting the willingness in early July of some House Republicans to break ranks with Rauner on an income tax increase and budget.

But House Republican Leader Jim Durkin said Monday that his members were united on this front.

“They don’t have the support in the House,” Durkin said of an override attempt. “Our caucus is pretty strong on this. If someone believes it will be a repeat of what happened with the budget, they are sorely mistaken.”

I think that is very true today for a few reasons. Come October? Maybe not. But, for crying out loud, let’s all hope it doesn’t come to that. For once, cooler heads need to prevail before real damage is done once again to this state’s economy, its people and its already shattered reputation.

* Related…

* Mark Brown: School funding crisis needn’t become another standoff

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:25 am

Comments

Perhaps it’s too early to tell, but this may be the moment the ILGOP gets dragged to a watery grave by their allegiance to a Governor who has ni interest in improving the state.

Do Durkin and the ILGOP also like 90% of the bill? If not, why not?

Comment by Blue Bayou Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:32 am
I’m not sure I would make such a bold statement if I were Durkin. He may have to eat those words.

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:33 am
===“They don’t have the support in the House,” Durkin said of an override attempt. “Our caucus is pretty strong on this. If someone believes it will be a repeat of what happened with the budget, they are sorely mistaken.”===

The real question I have, Durkin’s chest-puffing pledge notwithstanding, is will there be the votes, if a deal can be reached, to get the AV accepted, if the deal calls for that resolution.

It sounds an awful lot like cheering the veto to hurt Chicago students too. While in the micro of the districts and helpful for Rauner to keep Raunerites in check, the 63% disapproval for the macro Rauner may not get better with regional distain… come October.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:33 am
House Republican Leader Durkin is really saying: “Our caucus is united behind a totally false narrative which is intended to be divisive and accompanied by some pretty intense “dog-whistle” politics.”

It’s no wonder GOP members of the General Assembly are jumping ship in droves!

Comment by Springfieldish Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:33 am
What if all 67 Democrats vote to override in the House? Whose fault will it be that schools don’t open?

Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:35 am
Usually on only sees legislative leaders bragging that they’ve killed necessary funding to large school districts in states that are circling the drain, like Kansas and Louisiana.

But Durkin is a special one, so

Comment by Will Caskey Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:35 am
I thought the Speaker’s boast about being able to override was odd because a) it’s a bit out of character for him and b) it seemed unlikely he had the votes. I guess he just wanted to get in Rauner’s head a bit because otherwise I can’t figure out his angle.

Comment by The Captain Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:36 am
If football startup is jeapordized, an override will happen. Take it to the bank.

Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:43 am
The votes are locked up….on NOT funding schools.

Comment by Moby Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:44 am
The problem is asking for GOP Reps to vote yes for the same bill that they voted no on and then bashed as a bailout is an almost impossible request. There have to be some changes to the bill (and likely should be) in order for the GOP few to support. That might have to happen in a different bill very quickly if the governor spoils SB1 with his amendatory lanuage. It would take a while for an agreed to version of contents of SB1 in a different bill to become reality, but HB2808 would be a good vehicle. With that said, it could take until October for all of that to happen- some schools cannot wait that long unless mandated categorical money flows to the hardship cases to keep the doors open.

Comment by Elliott Ness Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:44 am
Rauner didn’t lift a finger to block the $5B tax increase or budget overrides, but he’s creating a statewide school funding crisis and going to the mattresses over $250M?

Over a bill that’s 90% of what he wants?

Unlike some, I thought Rauner knew exactly what he was doing with squeeze the beast, as horrible as it was.

This, however, makes no sense, politically or otherwise. It just smacks of irrational personal petulance. I don’t see an upside for him.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:49 am
Weird messaging…we can and, might, close down schools. Doesn’t sound so good.

Comment by hexagon Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:49 am
==There have to be some changes to the bill (and likely should be) in order for the GOP few to support. That might have to happen in a different bill very quickly==

You know how that could’ve happened a lot quicker with the same result? By the Governor honestly negotiating, as Cullerton asked, instead of demanding they just send him the bill

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:50 am
==What if all 67 Democrats vote to override in the House?==

It would be mildly shocking to say the least.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:50 am
Here are the two tracks for the governor.

This is a governor with 63% disapproval…

1) Work to get something to show leadership and give the impression that make sure “schools open” (whatever that means) and build a win of something Rauner agrees with at a 90% clip.

2) Veto. Either AV or full Veto and let Durkin prove, with pride no less, that hurting students by stopping school funding is a conscious choice and the Veto (AV or not) will be turned into a big loss, as only a governor can veto, and that veto is now being celebrated by Durkin as something that can’t be “undone”

Why “enjoy” that this is leading up to destruction?

Makes no sense? Where is the “win” in an AV or Veto that can’t be overridden by a veto executed by Rauner?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:57 am
=== If football startup is jeapordized, an override will happen. Take it to the bank. ===

Nope.

Rauner has said Democrats will be to blame if schools do not open. Schools will open, ergo Democrats will not be to blame.

High school football playoffs WILL be in jeopardy, though, especially when you drill down past Class 7A.

Rauner will wear the jacket for it.

Comment by Free Set of Steak Knives Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 9:59 am
Madigan said he’d override, Durkin said it wasn’t going to happen.

We’ll soon see who’s right.

Comment by Deft Wing Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:01 am
===We’ll soon see who’s right===

Soon is a relative term.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:06 am
Given Leader Durkin’s comment I suspect he and Governor Rauner have some type of understanding of what an amendatory veto of SB 1 would look like. My guess is that the additional State funding for the normal pension costs would remain in place and the sections of the bill that effectively compensate CPS for phasing out the CPS Educational Services Block Grant (costing CPS about $200 million a year ultimately) by using what SB 1 calls the CPS “local capacity target” which is the amount of local tax resources CPS is able to use to fund schools.

It is this particular section of the amended bill that is objected to, because the block grant as it has existed gave CPS more special education dollars per child than any other district in Illinois and once phased out CPS would receive the same special education funding as other districts which likely would be about $200 million less than they currently were supposed to receive in FY 17 but has not been fully paid by ISBE. By changing CPS local capacity it moves CPS into a EBM funding tier with the most neediest school districts in Illinois rather than the tier just above it.

Durkin will have no problem getting his caucus to vote not to give CPS that break, even though they clearly need the money. It is also interesting that Democrat Rep Will Davis, sponsor of the amendment that triggers all of this drama, has over the years repeatedly said he was opposed to the block grant for CPS.

Overall this veto issue by the Governor has been poorly explained to the public and ignores the reality of the fiscal situation of CPS.

Comment by Rod Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:07 am
Leader Durkin, so what that override may not prevail? Assume that as a given, then what? What is the next step in your plan? How do you get 71 votes for it?

Comment by The Real Just Me Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:20 am
Analysis of the phase following an AV. Downstate districts will face the cash flow squeeze first, possibly leading to school closings in the Fall. Chicago legislators are fully aware and will wait as long as possible for the prospect of this pain to build. The AV override vote in the Senate is probably going to be scheduled for the middle of August. Perhaps, after the first scheduled state payment is skipped. Senators need time to gather in Springfield and there is nothing like a bit of drama before a vote. If AV override is successful in Senate, the override vote in the House will be scheduled for late August.

Based on the voting histories in both chambers, there are only two plausible scenarios following an AV on SB1. First, the Governor’s AV is overridden by both chambers and the Governor solidifies his record of obstructionism without purpose. Second, the Governor’s AV is overridden in Senate, fails to be overridden in House, and the bill dies. In the second scenario, the Governor and the House Republicans will receive most of the blame for the resulting chaos that affects downstate districts first. My concern is that the Governor is going to damage House Republicans with an attempt to reallocate about $140 million in a $6.8 billion education package.

AV “is a strange game. The only wining move is not to play.” Am I missing something?

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:30 am
Put the pension stuff in a pension bill. Keep funding for schools separate. The City went down this path in 1995? when they wanted full control of CPS and they have recieved 100s of millions more than any normal equitable formula would have given them because of the demographics. Now its convenient to forget the deal that was made because it didnt happen in the Rahm era. School districts around the state shouldnt be bailing them out of that deal, that on its face was good, but spoiled over the years by misguided financial practices. .

Comment by NorthsideNoMore Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:33 am
durkin’s brain thinks the veto will make it out of the senate to him

Comment by Rabid Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:57 am
I’m with “the captain” and “rod” seems to know the ins and outs of the bill.

Comment by scott aster Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 4:25 pm
= NorthsideNoMore - Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 10:33 am: =

$250Million / 900 school districts = $277,777.77

Comment by Mama Tuesday, Aug 1, 17 @ 4:40 pm