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DGA poll: Rauner and Trump have same Illinois job disapproval rating

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* Remember that July 18-20 Democratic Governors Association poll which found that Gov. Rauner’s job disapproval was 63 percent? Well, I was writing my Crain’s Chicago Business column yesterday and reached out to the DGA to see if they polled President Trump’s job approval rating here as well. Their answer didn’t arrive until after my deadline, so you get them instead. Here are their job approval/disapproval numbers…

Trump – 35%-63%

Rauner – 34%-63%

I thought Trump’s disapproval rating might be higher. Either way, not good for both of those guys.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:28 am

Comments

The difference is that Trump may have big time legal issues and Rauner has to make hard financial choices for the state. I wouldn’t read into this poll too much.

Comment by Rocky Rosi Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:32 am
Ouch. What’s Madigan’s? Or the ILGA. for the matter?

Comment by Better Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:34 am
Trump didn’t have good approval ratings the entire 2016 election. He still won. With Trump, there’s no way to know what the poll numbers really are because Trump supporters won’t talk to media or pollsters. There is a big disconnect here. Rauner is in bigger trouble here.

Comment by Not really Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:36 am
The similarity of the numbers is striking, but how could that not be? Without Rauner making a splashy break from Trump, voters will assume that the two Republicans are pretty similar.

Rauner is firmly in Pat Quinn territory now.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:38 am
==He still won.==

Not in IL, he didn’t.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:38 am
= Not in Illinois, he didn’t. =

You are missing the point. The point is Trump supporters don’t talk to pollsters or media. For Trump, there is no way to know what the poll numbers are - only the votes.

Comment by Not really Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:41 am
What’s the surprise? Two super-wealthy executives who hate government, lie, disdain the media, and have no clue how to govern.

Comment by Steve Rogers Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:42 am
34% approve? Seems high.

Comment by Politix Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:43 am
–The point is Trump supporters don’t talk to pollsters or media.–

Uh, apparently 35% do.

Comment by King Louis XVI Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:45 am
Trump is more popular than the Guv? Maybe the Guv should breakdown and start saying the Trump name out loud and ride those coat tails.

Comment by Henry Francis Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:46 am
It’s hard for me to see Rauner or Trump having approval/disapproval ratings get worse than this.

There is a base of Republican voters who believe so strongly that government is bad and harmful to their lives that when a Republican who is bad and harmful at governing comes along, he is not penalized for it, because such governing just affirms the pre-existing belief that government can’t do anything right.

For these voters, what is important is that their Republican leader says the right things to feed and nurture that voters resentments (be it immigrants, or Chicago, or whatever), and that the leader makes that voters’ political opponents angry, sad, and/or fearful.

Thus, where there’s no lack of policy accomplishments, there’s still no penalty with this base if the right enemy is made.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:46 am
Probably higher than Madigan and that’s what Rauner has turned this into.

Comment by Almost the Weekend Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:47 am
==The point is Trump supporters don’t talk to pollsters or media.==

Polls released right before election day showed results around Clinton +4. Actual popular vote was Clinton +2. That’s not a particularly large polling error by historical standards.

Comment by Nacho Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:48 am
===get worse than this===

One thing I’ve learned covering Illinois government and politics, things can always get worse.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:48 am
HHS Secretary Tom Price was in Quincy yesterday to discuss opioids cris, visited 911 Center. Darin LaHood also there. Where was Rauner? You would think for Price to be here discussing such an important issue, Rauner would have found time to attend. I guess it goes to Rauner not wanting to discuss anything related to repeal/replace or how to fix current health care issues. Or anything Trump related.

Comment by Thinking Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:48 am
===Where was Rauner?===

Rauner vetoed the opioid bill. He was overridden.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:49 am
===Actual popular vote was Clinton +2===

RCP polling average was Clinton +3.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:51 am
I’m with Rich on this one. I would’ve thought Trump’s numbers would be worse than Rauner’s.

Remember Trump lost Illinois by a big margin, and has become less popular since his election as well.

Rauner really is in trouble. I wonder how the Dems will mess this up.

Comment by Robert the Bruce Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:52 am
Bruce needs an injection of cosmopolitan bias.

Comment by City Zen Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:52 am
–Thus, where there’s no lack of policy accomplishments, there’s still no penalty with this base if the right enemy is made.–

Bingo.

Comment by King Louis XVI Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:52 am
I would be curious about how these numbers overlap. Are there Trump supporters who dislike Rauner and vice versa. What would their thinking be?

Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:53 am
Hisgirlfriday is on the money with this. There seems to be a certain percentage of people who’s primary political goal is to stick it some other group of people — “coastal elites,” “Chicago,” “Liberals,” — and don’t really care what happens to them as long as their enemies suffer. That seems to be a huge part of why Trumps rhetoric plays well to his base. He’s vague on policies but excellent at trolling his opponents. Rauner seems to have adopted the same tactic in regards to Chicago, personified by Madigan. Let’s hope it doesn’t have the same success in IL that it did on the national level.

Comment by Actual Red Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:01 pm
Steve Rogers - Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 11:42 am:

What’s the surprise? Two super-wealthy executives who hate government, lie, disdain the media, and have no clue how to govern.

Sounds like a typical politician.

Comment by CubFan Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:04 pm
These numbers are striking because they come after all the TV ads Rauner has been running. Am I getting the timing right?

If so, that could mean that Rauner’s money won’t be enough to save him come election day.

Comment by slow down Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:04 pm
Interesting times.

Comment by Biker Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:08 pm
Can’t wait until they are both out of office so people here will have time on their hands to do something constructive. Just think of everything you will accomplish. Or not.

Comment by Fredo Corleone Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:09 pm
So ( Defacto Governor Proft) will use this to his advantage with Bruce on why changes needed to be made. Then when he drops even more and more if possible he will be forced to change directions again. At that point so many bridges will have been burned that it will be impossible to correct the damages.

Comment by Old Timer Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:15 pm
Remember not a fan of either, but this poll makes understand the state of the state. Sorta.

Comment by Blue dog dem Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:20 pm
The general election polling error was one of the lowest in recent years. The difference is that the error in some state level polling was more pronounced. Either way, both Trump and Rauner are historically unpopular but both could be, and I suspect will be, worse.

As to Rocky’s comment, “The difference is that Trump may have big time legal issues and Rauner has to make hard financial choices for the state. I wouldn’t read into this poll too much.” I have no idea what your point is. You wouldn’t read into the poll that they are both historically unpopular? You wouldn’t read into the polls that they are accurate? Or are you saying that because Trump is embroiled in a huge scandal, in reality these numbers are even more horrid than they appear for Rauner because he couldn’t even match the scandal-plagued Trump in Illinois (ding, ding, ding)?

Comment by Chicago Cynic Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:21 pm
My 401k loves President Trump.

Comment by The All Knowing Oz Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:27 pm
Despite these polls, the Dems should not underestimate Rauner like the Clinton campaign did Trump. Money & midterm is on Rauner’s side.

Comment by Skeptic Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:34 pm
Though I agree Rauner will be tougher to defeat than his numbers suggest, with Trump in the White House midterm dynamics will be much more favorable to Democrats than 2010/2014, especially in Illinois.

Comment by Nacho Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:40 pm
“My 401k loves President Trump.”

It must have really loved President Obama, then, since the market in his first 7 months grew 18.7% compared to Trump’s 11.1%.

Comment by Pelonski Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:44 pm
Lil Trump ran on “Quinn bad” and “Madigan_______”.

Still no solutions from Lil Trump just…more of the same old rhetoric.

It proves in my mind why Hotel Maid Managers and Nursing Home Cafeteria Managers know nothing about how to govern.

Comment by Mike Cirrincione Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 12:50 pm
Gov. Cracker Barrel has even uttered the name “Trump” to the best of my recollection.

Two bits to the man, woman or child that can provide an audio link.

Comment by Alternative Logic Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 1:13 pm
The stats indicate there are not that many fence-sitters, but I don’t think the undecideds are likely to go “favorable” the longer they are exposed to the Trump & Rauner mindset.

Comment by Stumpy's bunker Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 2:07 pm
Skeptic @ 12:34 was not me. Please choose another nickname.

Comment by Skeptic Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 2:33 pm
“Better” and “Yep” are posting from the same IP address. Just FYI, sock puppetry is forbidden.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 2:37 pm
““Better” and “Yep” are posting from the same IP address.”

Maybe it is a husband and wife team.

Comment by Pelonski Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 2:49 pm
But…Madigan! But…Hillary!

Comment by IllinoisBoi Friday, Aug 4, 17 @ 3:09 pm