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Rauner’s reelection predicament is looking very familiar

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Illinois

In 2014, Republican Bruce Rauner defeated Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn by just 142,284 votes out of more than 3.6 million votes cast during a huge national Republican landslide.

Quinn was a very unpopular governor at the time. The last two polls before Election Day had his job disapproval rating at 55 and 54 percent.

According to exit polling on Election Day, Rauner beat Quinn among self-identified moderates 52 to 45 percent. Four years before, Quinn won moderates 51 to 39 percent.

Quinn was an ineffective, unpopular governor up against a strong national partisan headwind.

Throughout 2005 and 2006, polls regularly showed Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s job disapproval rating at or above 50 percent. One poll, taken less than a month before his 2006 re-election, had Blagojevich’s disapproval rating at a whopping 59 percent.

Even so, Blagojevich wound up defeating Republican Judy Baar Topinka by 10 points. He spent heavily and ran a good campaign, but this unloved, bumbling governor was helped by the mighty tailwind of a national Democratic wave so strong it flipped control of the U.S. House and gave Illinois Senate Democrats a super-majority.

It also helped that Republican President George W. Bush was extremely unpopular in Illinois. Some of my more liberal friends had a simple reason for voting for Blagojevich, even though they didn’t care for him. He was, to their minds, a layer of protection, a state firewall if you will, against Bush.

You probably see where I’m going.

Click here to read the rest before commenting, please. Thanks.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:22 am

Comments

Please don’t encourage him or give him good advice, Rich. Just let him continue on his merry way out the door…

Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:37 am
All good points. Normally, you could argue that Rauner’s tremendous wealth could help him sail through all these headwinds. But if JB is the nominee, that advantage is negated. “Madiganizing” the election is his only hope.

Comment by Roman Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:37 am
==you could argue that Rauner’s tremendous wealth could help him sail through all these headwinds==

And it still might! It probably *will*, if we don’t limit the definition of “help” to “ensuring victory”.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:39 am
…and if Rauner whines about Madigan all through the campaign all the Dem nominee needs to do to win is conduct a forward-looking, positive campaign.

Comment by Hot Dawg Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:44 am
The moves that Gov. Rauner are making are interesting.

It almost seems like he is concerned about a primary challenge from the right. Hence, moves to shore up that support. You would think that the lack of any challenger and his bank account would be sufficient insurance against a primary challenge, and as such, he would move to the center looking for next November.

Who knows. Maybe this is Rauner being Rauner. He may well be on the far right, doing what comes naturally.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:44 am
I think an equally important question is whether Chicago is motivated to vote in the governor’s race again. Quinn saw the city’s turnout crash coming and his extremely unrealistic demand for 250K new voter registrations was never realized. Dem groups tried, to their credit, and ironically their success was portrayed as a campaign against Emanuel for 2015 instead of saving Quinn’s bacon.

But the fact is that since 2002 Chicago has lost interest in midterms and has steadily declined. This may be cyclical; I haven’t looked prior to that. If the city returns to its 02/06 vote share it’s hard to see how Rauner recovers especially with the more Dem lean of the suburbs relative to those previous cycles.

Comment by Will Caskey Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:45 am
JB’s wealth and self-funding actually undermines the best argument the Democrats have.

Daniel Biss can run and say “let’s get billionaires out of politics. I’m a regular person like you.”

Somehow JB railing against the rich has less impact. Especially given all the shady things he’s done RE:labor RE:property taxes which will be played on an endless loop for the entire cycle.

Comment by Political Animal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:46 am
By his actions and rhetoric over the last month, Rauner clearly is making an early move to lock down the Dazed and Confused vote.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:46 am
“forward-looking, positive campaign”… led by Madigan.

Comment by Yobagoya Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:48 am
==the Dazed and Confused vote.==

We keep getting older, the arguments back and forth stay the same age

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:52 am
Last thing this state needs is a Governor that will continue campaigning for another 5 years.

I also don’t understand the recent move to the far right. Guess now that the Kansas experiment has failed, all the Koch brothers and company have left as a plaything is Illinois. Must still be hoping to get the Feds to allow State bankruptcy; that’s the only reason I can think of for delaying the bond deal.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:53 am
RNUG, the Koch machine still owns Wisconsin.

Comment by Blue Bayou Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 9:57 am
To say that the Democrats are unhappy with Trump is an understatement. Unless something in Washington changes significantly for the better for Trump I would expect a large Democratic turnout in Illinois in the 2018 General Election. We already know that Union turnout will be big for the Democratic nominee.
It will take some doing for Rauner to even make it close.

Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:00 am
RNUG- I tend to think of Koch et.al. using Illinois as more of a playroom. State bankruptcy may be one of their goals, but don’t forget those two US Supreme Court cases Rauner thinks are more important than anything else (the Uncommon Knowledge interview at Dartmouth http://www.hoover.org/research/budget-crisis-land-lincoln).

Comment by Anon221 Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:07 am
Dude, there are a lot more non-union voters than union voters. Don’t underestimate the number of people who are firmly in Rauner’s camp and are fed up with the Dem stranglehold on the state of Illinois finances.

Comment by Piece of Work Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:08 am
New tax for Rauner to run against….the sweetened beverage tax. I’ve never seen anger against a tax like this one. News stories, businesses suffering, photos of receipts. I don’t buy the products but I’m angry because it is a confusing tax especially for businesses that could have been avoided with a wee property tax increase. And because it appears that government would not suffer with the 600 unfilled jobs and 300 layoffs that came when Toni threatened and now it just looks like she wants to keep patronage going. Toni is suing the industry that sued her. They are angry. And she propped up Berrios for a long time, so more of that patronage and machine tint. Toni is a liability for the Dems. And Rauner can use all that in the suburban Cook County area. other than that, he’s toast.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:08 am
Anyone who worked through the Stroger sales tax uproar knows that 1) Cook County’s taxes do not splash on statewide races 2) It’s nowhere near said uproar. IRA and beverages are complaining that they lost a lawsuit is all.

Comment by Will Caskey Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:13 am
===Especially given all the shady things he’s done RE:labor RE:property taxes which will be played on an endless loop for the entire cycle.===

LOL

Let’s take these separately…

Labor…

Rauner wants to end prevailing wage and collective bargaining.

And union worker voting for Rauner now is like when just 2 1/2 years ago, taught Quinn a “lesson”

Rauner won’t win Labor support over Pritzker.

Property Taxes?

Rauner had multiple homeowner exemptions and clouted his denied Winnetka-living daughter into Payton Prep, gaming the system in both property tax avoidance and sending a student to a CPS school, clouting her in, and denying a Chicago whose parents may not have multiple homeowner exemptions or the clout not to worry about trying to get a Payton Prep seat

What else ya got?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:16 am
==It almost seems like he is concerned about a primary challenge from the right.==

In which case, he must see something I don’t, because the idea of any Republican challenging him, especially from the right, seems like Democratic wish-casting to me.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:16 am
===Don’t underestimate the number of people who are firmly in Rauner’s camp and are fed up with the Dem stranglehold on the state of Illinois finances.===

Rauner…

34% approval
63% disapproval

Keep up, please.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:16 am
==Rauner won’t win Labor support over Pritzker.==

You’re assuming on Pritzker. Two things: 1) he’s the nominee. 2) Labor will support him enthusiastically.

I’m not sure Union Leadership and Union Membership are in sync. Neither are you. No one can be.

Comment by A guy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:20 am
- A Guy -

Reading is fundamental.

The direct comparison I was addressing was Pritzker-Rauner.

No assuming or predicting.

Further…

===I’m not sure Union Leadership and Union Membership are in sync.===

It may not be Pritzker, or Kennedy, or Biss… but Labor is coming to grips that Rauner is the lone enemy of organized Labor.

If that means going from 2 in 5 households to 1 in 4 or 1 in 5… that will be “enough” of a blowback where Rauner chipped away at Quinn.

Throw in HB40, Brittany Carl… Lots of chipping away.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:26 am
I think Mr. Caskey has it exactly. So much of Cook County is in safe Dem congressional districts so, it’s possible the anti-Trump fervor will not translate into more voting in 2018. And I’m sure we will see a reprise of Rauners depressing ad blitz in the Chicago market to keep turnout low.

Rauner is using IPI and the abortion issue to energize the right wing base to turn out.

It doesn’t look like he will tack to the center as much as tell the center, Madigan passed the 32% tax increase and Chicago school bailout - what do you think he’ll do when he has total control of the state government?

Comment by Century Club Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:26 am
==Rauner won’t win Labor support over Pritzker.==

===You’re assuming on Pritzker===

You’re assuming that Rauner will get a majority after receiving 40 percent against the lackluster Quinn in 2014? How’s that gonna happen?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:27 am
Will Rauner ever realize that he is not good at being governor? His skills are in different areas.

Even when he has good ideas, his tactics fail.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:27 am
This Toni drinks tax is different from the Todd tax. and this one is just starting to roll so we will see where it goes.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:29 am
A guy- “No one can be.”

True, but maybe Union members need to go read the Uncommon Knowledge transcript and dwell on whether they want Rauner to maintain his “Standing” in the court cases…

Rauner on Fair share: “We are going to be in front of the Supreme Court, and there is more than a 90% odds that we win that case.”

Rauner on RTW: “I think we’re going to win. We got about a 70% chance. When we do, we will have many counties in Illinois, but also New Jersey, Connecticut, New York, and California, that will vote for economic freedom and competition and change the dynamic completely. That will have nothing to do with the legislature or our budget fight. These are transformative changes that we are driving.”

Union Leaderships and Memberships both need to ponder- Do they want four more years of “transformative changes”???

Comment by Anon221 Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:29 am
The Koch machine has full control of Iowa as well and passed a bunch of anti worker bills.The term ended with them eyeing pensions.

Comment by David Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:30 am
==Throw in HB40, Brittany Carl… Lots of chipping away.==

If anything, social issues like that will get in the way of consolidating the union vote behind Pritzker. But that’s not gonna be the pitch to union households, anyway.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:35 am
I need to add they got Missouri as well. And of course they have control of Michigan and Indiana. Higher ed has had cuts in those states as well so that should help our beleagured system.

Comment by David Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:36 am
Rauner doesn’t need to win labor votes and it would be naïve to think he possibly could.

All he needs to do is eat into the margins and dampen their enthusiasm to reduce turnout. Pritzker has made a lot of PERSONAL enemies in labor, more than Rauner.

Rauner may advocate for policies they don’t like but he never baked them under heat lamps.

Comment by Political Animal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:36 am
===If anything, social issues like that will get in the way of consolidating the union vote behind Pritzker. But that’s not gonna be the pitch to union households, anyway===

Chipping away from all areas of “the rock” sometimes runs counter, but it’s about fraying the edges everywhere, Labor and Social Agenda prongs included.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:38 am
== Rich Miller - Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:27 am:

You’re assuming that Rauner…===

The only assumption I’m making on Rauner is that he will be the GOP nominee.

Comment by A guy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:39 am
===Pritzker has made a lot of PERSONAL enemies in labor, more than Rauner. ===

Too early in the day to be drinking that much.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:43 am
===All he needs to do is eat into the margins and dampen their enthusiasm to reduce turnout. Pritzker has made a lot of PERSONAL enemies in labor…===

What, the Decatur PowerPoint was a “love note” to all of Labor, trades included?

Willful ignorance isn’t a trait of a political animal.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:45 am
“Pritzker has made a lot of PERSONAL enemies in labor, more than Rauner.”

What are you talking about? You seem to be suggesting something that does not exist. If you’re talking Hyatt, Pritzker not remotely involved in Hyatt. So even though he holds Hyatt stock (His Dad built Hyatt before dying when JB was 7), hard to imagine that’s going to be held against him by too many. So what else you got?

Comment by Anon0091 Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:50 am
The pro-Rauner comments on this thread are so unhinged from the reality of this state. The damage Rauner did to communities and families in the budget fiasco will come home to roost. That is not going to fade. Especially since everyone knows if he’s reelected we’ll go through it again, or worse.

Also, union members did not like Quinn. We still voted for him, holding our noses. Turnout was probably hurt by it though.

But voting against a known Rauner? No one is sitting that out.

Comment by Blue Bayou Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:51 am
Arsenal,

I don’t view the odds of any GOP challenger to Ruaner to be high. I have heard no rumors regarding anybody considering a run.

That’s what makes his moves so strange. They seem calculated at going up against an opponent unlikely to exist.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 10:55 am
=== You seem to be suggesting something that does not exist===

Oh, I think they exist. SEIU Local 1 may be on that list. We’ll see.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:05 am
Gooner, I think the right turn is to keep his base angry and energized for the general, not positioning for the primary. If it’s Pritzker vs. Rauner, we are going to see so many negative ads that people are going to be more motivated to jump off a bridge than go vote. As Trump shows, angry people vote.

Comment by Century Club Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:06 am
The reality of the state? You mean a permanent income tax increase on top of rising property taxes and now regressive taxes on sweetened beverages.

Democrats support raising taxes on middle class families but will not support any economic or government reforms to grow private sector jobs

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:06 am
Anybody But Rauner. Good People.

Comment by Shake Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:10 am
Century,

The problem is that the people who are going to be angry are mostly on the other side.

His anti-abortion stuff is going to fire up a lot of people who are moderates or on the left. “Trump and Rauner want to ban abortion” is a case that will be made, and it likely to have a great appeal.

In IL, if it comes down to social issues, the base on the left is larger than the right.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:11 am
===and now regressive taxes on sweetened beverages.===

lol

You mean a similar tax that Rauner backed for months and couldn’t convince the tax-loving SDems to pass?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:11 am
===Democrats support raising taxes on middle class families but will not support any economic or government reforms to grow private sector jobs===

Rauner vetoed the entire budget.

You should be pleased.

You should embrace that Bruce Rauner has no budgetary successes until June of 2018…

… Rauner even vetoed every budgetary dollar for his own state agencies.

Why aren’t you pleased?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:14 am
- Will Caskey -

Agreed that is not likely that a Cook County beverage tax will “splash” (nice pun) on a statewide race.

But I’m not sure I’m with you on the extent of the “uproar”. This is only anecdotal, but to me the beverage tax has people fired up at a level not seen since the Todd Tax. The difference is the Chicago media was unrelenting in their pounding of Stroger, while they have always treated Preckwinkle with kid gloves.

If you combine the Toni Tax with Joe Berrios’ troubles, could we see a possible tax revolt in the Cook County Dem primary? That usually doesn’t happen in any Dem primary, but folks are ticked, and if there are no races on the GOP side to keep Republicans from crossing over, who knows?

Comment by Roman Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:25 am
I see Rauner’s public move to the right as shoring up his alliances for a national run. I just cannot see it doing much for illinois

Comment by walker Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:42 am
What I’ve read here is Rauner supporters claiming that Rauner won’t win, but the Democrat will lose.

It’s 2017, Rauner is governor, and even his supporters are imaging scenarios recognizing his bad poll numbers, unpopularity, and lame duck status.

It’s not about taxes, it’s not about Madigan, it’s about Rauner.

If these poor excuses are the best Rauner can do with his supporters, Brucifer doesn’t have a chance.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:43 am
“an early move to lock down the Dazed and Confused vote.” But they’re Trampled Under Foot and ask No Quarter, at least until they take the Stairway to Heaven after Achilles Last Stand. Or did we suffer a Communications Breakdown?

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 11:47 am
Republicans want to start drug testing individuals receiving subsidies to purchase health insurance via the ACA or Medicaid.

Oddly, those getting their health insurance thru their employer are not being held to the same standard, even though this is an unfunded Welfare Entitlement.

Comment by Mike Cirrincione Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 12:08 pm
If JB is the nominee, there will be lots of money to counter Rauner, who’s one of the worst governors in Illinois history.

The interview in which Rauner said that union-busting cases in the courts are more important than the GA’s role is something JB and Democrats should seize upon. That is Rauner, in a nutshell–that he sacrificed the entire state in his quest to strip the power of working class people.

Now that he is openly and fully allied with the IPI, that message should be crystal clear.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 12:22 pm
Most people do not want to experience election cycle of complete political dysfunction. No one really expects the political players to change their behavior. Since it is extremely unlikely that democratic majorities in either chamber will experience a substantial decline, the only realistic option to change the dynamic is to elect a different Governor. Even fiscal conservatives that agree with the Governor about lower spending, still understand that the tactics employed by the Governor have done a lot more harm than good. On this dimension, nothing says failure like $10 billion more in unpaid bills and a tax veto override.

Comment by PragmaticR Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 12:34 pm
To the Post,

Great work, Rich.

It’s critically important to understand the Blago win, the Quinn win and then look closely at the Quinn loss to Rauner to begin any thoughtful discussion about Rauner and re-elect.

I’ve said “Skyhook, in reverse” is probably the best way to go after Rauner.

You use that as a base or hub to take the prongs of “Bruce Rauner failed” to any and every (I’ll get there, stay with me) way possible to get to the meme “Bruce Rauner failed”

Even with “Rauner vetoed that”, the Proft-Besler campaign brain trust need to come to grips with the budgetary “successes” are really begat from overriding the Rauner vetoes. HB40 will scrape away the phony “no social agenda facade, and lets not forget the campaigning with regional jealousies, Proft-Besler will now have a playing field targeting and promoting regional anger, social agenda angst, fiscal impotence, and Labor upheaval and melding.

How can someone reasonably argue that Rauner isn’t under water, maybe as much as 17+ points polling shows.

The blunting of turnout in Chicago/Cook/minority voters is the strategy Proft-Besler will try. They will go after the boogeyman “Madigan” and that may work in the micro this time, will it work in the macro? Rauner won statewide but Dems held serve, having “mathematical” veto-proof ChamberS.

This could be a time where Rauner is defeated, however, the micro “Madigan”, regional, social agenda splicing could lead to Raunerite gains in both chambers. More than possible.

Then there’s Trump.

Georgia, Kansas, Georgia, South Carolina… states Trump carried “held serve” with special elections.

Trump was down “serious” double-digits to Hillary, and eventually lost to Hillary, in Illinois, by nearly 17 points.

So, can Rauner win?

Yep. He can. It’s up to Dems, Labor, moderate women, social service advocates, patrons, and clients to “show up” and vote at clips where Rauner can’t find votes to offset. That means Chicago/Cook and the Collars finding anti-Rauner voters and voting them.

Rauner disenfranchises enough voters, even with Trump, it’s in the window.

That’s where the IPI, Besler, Proft, Uihlein, Griffin… even the Denocrat Diana Rauner come in. Make voting too tedious or too tiresome. Make voting… not important… and “be happy with Bruce, he’s not Madigan”

With $100+ million, it could be “enough”

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 1:01 pm
–The reality of the state? You mean a permanent income tax increase on top of rising property taxes and now regressive taxes on sweetened beverages.-==

So Rauner axn say, I tried to prevent a tax increase and failed. That’s the best he can do? Point to his own well-intentioned failures and overall political weakness?

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 1:04 pm
Rauner also picked up a lot of Union state employees who were unhappy with Quinn and a not insignificant amount of minority support. even with his payoff to Meeks I think both those grps will turn out against him this time around. The conservative state employees who voted for Rauner were not pleased by the lack of raises and doubling of health insurance; and rauner social damage has impacted many minority grps

Comment by Ghost Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 1:11 pm
===Brucifer===

Lol!

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 1:19 pm
A couple other things to consider about unions in the next election…

1) Union leadership spent a lot of time whipping AGAINST Quinn, only to do an about-face when Rauner got the Republican nomination.

2) Not every rank-and-file union member votes on union issues.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 1:19 pm
“Brucifer”

slow_clap.gif

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 2:05 pm
“So Rauner [can] say, I tried to prevent a tax increase and failed.” Remember, You-Know-Who used to claim he was the only person standing between the Legislature and a tax increase as well.

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 2:26 pm
Anybody But Rauner.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Aug 7, 17 @ 5:13 pm