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A look ahead on SB1

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Illinois

The State Senate overrode Rauner’s [SB1] veto with one Republican joining Democrats. But, in the House, the original bill passed 11 votes short of a veto-proof majority. So Democrats would require assistance from Republicans.

State Rep. Steve Andersson, R-Geneva, broke with Rauner, voting to pass a state budget; but he said he won’t do the same for school funding.

“I don’t see any other Republicans breaking on this issue right now,” he said. “As time goes on, if there isn’t a compromise and if schools downstate start not opening, that’s a question you’re gonna have to ask those representatives about how they feel about their districts.”

* Korecki…

Sources tell POLITICO not to expect the state House to initiate a SB1 override vote until next week. As we referenced last week, Democrats on Wednesday are expected to take up a version of Rauner’s school funding plan as laid out in his amendatory veto language, but it’ll be in their own bill. Democrats we talked to predict it will get fewer than 20 votes. Then if (when?) it fails, Democrats will declare there’s no support for Rauner’s plan. As of Monday evening, the intention was for the state House to call SB1 for an override vote next week. There’s still a problem: not enough Republicans have crossed over to override.

MADIGAN WARMS TO SCHOLARSHIP TAX CREDITS — To sweeten the deal for Republicans, top Democrats over the weekend were in touch with Cardinal Blase Cupich about a proposal — which Rauner supports — to provide scholarship tax credits for private schools.

One of the paths Democrats are eyeing is linking the scholarships to SB1 in order to pull the needed Republican votes for an override next week. State House Speaker Michael Madigan is reportedly open to a plan that would give tax credits for those who send their children to private schools. It would be available to families who are way above the poverty line, according to a source with knowledge of the discussions. The Tribune editorial board, which has been in lock step with Rauner, last night called for the SB1 override and private school credits. If that passes, Rauner can then say he expanded school choice.

But it’s a classic Madigan trick box. Madigan’s team knows the exact number of private schools in each legislative district — including those of targeted GOP lawmakers. With 2018 in mind, the speaker is known to protect his caucus with such votes — but will Rauner? Just one possible scenario Democrats anticipate: Targeted Republicans who originally voted against SB1 at the governor’s urging (even if it brought more money to their schools) may end up being urged now by the governor to support SB1 with private school tax credits (even if there are few, if any, private schools in their districts.) Some Downstate Republicans may end preferring a straight SB1 override versus a version of the deal with tax credits.

That’s kind of all over the place. The Democrats sure seem confident that the Republicans will break with the governor again, but I’m with Andersson and don’t see that happening really soon. But the Republican leaders are pushing hard behind the scenes to get that private school scholarship tax credit into law. But for Rauner to do a 180 on SB1 just for that seems unlikely after all this messaging about how it’s a Chicago bailout.

Go back to the original SB1, add in some tax credits and some mandate relief and you’ve got a decent compromise that can eventually attract Republican votes even if the governor remains stubbornly opposed. This really shouldn’t be as difficult as everyone is making it. But, of course, it’s Illinois. Madigan has to be Madigan and Rauner has to be Rauner, and that means for each of them to feel like they’ve won, they have to feel like they’ve beaten the other guy.

* Let’s go back to that Amanda Vinicky interview…

VINICKY: But do they need to accept all of what is in your amendatory veto then, or what part of that would lead us to a compromise?

RAUNER: So, I said to the General Assembly, any element of my amendatory veto I’m open to changing. Let’s compromise, let’s find a solution. Let’s do it together. Let’s do what’s fair for our kids, especially our low-income kids, so they’re all treated the same.

VINICKY: But there’s nothing in it you need to have, that you insist on –

RAUNER: There’s no has to have. No, nothing.

VINICKY: Nothing

RAUNER: Nothing. Absolutely nothing has to happen. The only principle we should be guided by is what’s best for our children, what treats them all the same so they have the best chance they can at the American dream.

“Absolutely nothing has to happen.” Um… Then why AV it to begin with? Sheesh.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:13 am

Comments

Isn’t SB1 ALREADY a compromise? I don’t understand why this continues to be brought up. The governor likes 90% of what’s in it. Spike the football and declare victory already

Comment by JohnnyPyleDriver Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:19 am
“As long as they keep the bit in there about achieving the American dream and stuff, I’m cool.” Governor Rauner

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:23 am
Rauner continues his circular talking.
He keeps going round an round.

There will never be a compromise with this guy.

Comment by MOON Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:24 am
== Nothing. Absolutely nothing has to happen. ==

Does Rauner have a single clue to what he wants? Or how to govern?

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:26 am
Anybody who continues to claim “he likes 90% of the bill, just declare it a win,” has virtually never negotiated anything of consequence.

Comment by Piece of Work Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:31 am
I think going back to the original bill might be enough to get it done, particularly if a handful of GOP members can point to their school districts getting a few bucks more and Chicago getting a few bucks less.

Opening things up to the private scholarship program and even mandate relief won’t being doing a lot downstate Repubs any favors.

Comment by Roman Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:32 am
===Does Rauner have a single clue to what he wants? Or how to govern?===

Yes, sewing confusion has been his means to completely destroy functioning government. No, he does not know how to govern.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:33 am
I upgraded the odds to 1 in 3 that the override is successful.

I didn’t hear Rep. Andersson’s quotes when I updated.

It’s back to 1 in 4 odds that an override is successful.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:34 am
The distrust is pervasive and corrosive.

If the override of SB1 fails, who can guarantee a replacement bill that can get 71 and 36? Durkin? Even after he saw Radogno cut down.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:37 am
==Anybody who continues to claim “he likes 90% of the bill, just declare it a win,” has virtually never negotiated anything of consequence.==

And anyone who says 90% isn’t good enough doesn’t understand the concept of give and take and what a negotiation actually involves.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:43 am
===Anybody who continues to claim “he likes 90% of the bill, just declare it a win,” has virtually never negotiated anything of consequence.===

“Anybody who continues to claim “he likes 90% of the bill, just declare it a win,” has virtually never negotiated anything of consequence with Bruce Rauner”

I fixed it for you, you don’t need to thank me.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:45 am
RNUG you need to turn on your libertarian to English translator….. /translation I am killing this i could care less about schools or kids, I am just going to make Rahm pay for not saying how wonderful i am twice a day… now where is my daily positive press folder….

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 11:51 am
“VINICKY: But there’s nothing in it you need to have, that you insist on –

RAUNER: There’s no has to have. No, nothing.

VINICKY: Nothing

RAUNER: Nothing. Absolutely nothing has to happen.”

Whoops, another PR blunder by Rauner and BTIA. The ads write themselves.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:09 pm
== RNUG you need to turn on your libertarian to English translator… ==

Darn … I let my subscription to Reason lapse …

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:13 pm
==scholarship tax credits for private schools==

Well, that’ll solve the problem. Eventually, there won’t be any public schools left to support. That’s when the “scholarships” for needy students will end. Then what? Homeschooling?

Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:17 pm
If the House does not override the veto of SB1, the Democratic leaders will wait a few months and offer a bill similar to SB1 with minor tweaks that may or may not be beneficial to rural areas. Hopefully, it will not take a year for all the players to understand that the Democratic leaders are more than willing to go the distance in support of CPS. This is similar to the budget result with a permanent tax increase and no TA items.

What is the best strategy for Republican representatives? Hope that a few colleagues no longer running for reelection choose override to save everyone from the stalemate drama. Note that there are potential outcomes that are far worse than SB1 for poor rural areas.

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:20 pm
===Does Rauner have a single clue to what he wants? Or how to govern?===

Spoiler alert: no and no.

Comment by Axel Brass Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:27 pm
I’m curious what percentage of the AV version of the bill Madigan and HDems agree with. 90%? 0%?

Comment by Right Field Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 12:28 pm
==And anyone who says 90% isn’t good enough doesn’t understand the concept of give and take and what a negotiation actually involves.==

Agreeing with 90% of a contract implies some sort of compromise on 90% of the content in that contract. Shouldn’t the final 10% have a similar compromise?

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:07 pm
==I’m curious what percentage of the AV version of the bill Madigan and HDems agree with. 90%? 0%?==

I would not presume to speak for The Speaker, but I can tell you that the AV guts most of the intention of the evidence-based funding model.

Comment by Decaf Coffee Party Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:11 pm
== I think going back to the original bill might be enough to get it done, particularly if a handful of GOP members can point to their school districts getting a few bucks more and Chicago getting a few bucks less. ==

There are more than a few downstate and suburban Dems who would like to see the same thing happen. Unlike the Speaker, I don’t think they want to use the private scholarship program to put their GOP counterparts in a trick bag (assuming the Politico report is correct.)

This, like the budget deal, seems ripe for a rank-and-file deal — brokered by Bob Pritchard instead of Andersson. Give Chicago a little bit of a haircut instead of the scalping Rauner wants by moving back to Manar’s original bill.

Comment by FTR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:21 pm
Can we name One of the round-a-bout’s in Springfield after the Governor? You must follow the rules to use them or you will just keep going around in circles or causing a wreck. The Raun-duh-bout so to speak. Look kids there’s Big Ben!

Comment by PlayK8 Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:36 pm
Less spending: good, Lower taxes: better, Moving $ between poor districts: waste of time

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:57 pm
Agree with @TinyDancer and @DecafCoffeeParty, to wit:

(1)scholarship tax credits are a really, really bad idea if you want to preserve public education,
(2) several changes to SB1 essentially destroy its entire raison d’etre.

If Madigan goes for (1),we can conclude that neither he nor the governor cares about public education in the state; if anybody goes for (2), then the only thing left to conclude is that Illinois is really and truly broken.

Going back to the original bill is actually a good option. Let Madigan work his legislative legerdemain one more time–if he can get it passed in its original form, then he’s not only the longest-serving state speaker, he’s the most politically-savvy state legislator in the country.

Comment by dbk Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 1:57 pm
The CPS share in SB1 without CPS pension recognition is approximately $1.6 billion out of a total of $10.5 billion in state education support. State education support is the sum of direct state support ($6.6 billion) and pension funding for TRS ($3.9 billion). So, CPS would get about 15% of state funding under this approach even though CPS serves approximately 20% of the state’s students. It should be self-evident that 15% is not an appropriate distribution of state resources because CPS operates in a relatively high-cost environment with a relatively large fraction of poor students. Does anyone in government actually think about the numbers or is it all spin all the time?

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 2:05 pm
@TinyDancer: The Illinois Board of Education Proposed Fiscal Year 2017 budget is $11 billion ($7.3 billion from State General Funds). The scholarship tax credit fund is proposed at roughly $100 million.

Comment by Sillies Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 2:16 pm
The $100 million would reduce state revenues by the same amount, under the proposal. So how would that hole be covered?

Comment by anon2 Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 2:27 pm
@Sillies

Recipe For the End of Public Neighborhood Schools:

Charters and private schools = reduced enrollment/pupils @ public neighborhood schools
Per-pupil funding = subtract the kids, subtract the funding;
subtract the funding, lose teachers and programs;
lose teachers, programs and funding, lose more students;
lose more students, lose more funding, lose more teachers, lose more programs
Shake, stir, repeat

Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 2:58 pm
==So how would that hole be covered?==

Another $100 million in unpaid state employee health insurance claims. Apparently, the doctors and nurses saving the lives of state employees should not receive any compensation.

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 3:02 pm
==CPS would get about 15% of state funding under this approach even though CPS serves approximately 20% of the state’s students.==

You forgot to mention CPS also gets 15% of their funding from the federal govt whereas the state avg is less than 8%. Considering all the wealth within their borders, doubling the state avg is pretty significant source of revenue that should be taken into account.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 3:12 pm
==You forgot to mention CPS also gets 15% of their funding from the federal govt whereas the state avg is less than 8%.==

Yes, under Title I, CPS receives more money from the Federal government to educate disadvantaged children.

I am quite sure that this modest additional funding provides sufficient resources so that the children in CPS receive the same education as their counterparts in the suburbs.

Let us move along, there is no inequity to see here.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 3:40 pm
==I am quite sure that this modest additional funding provides sufficient resources so that the children in CPS receive the same education as their counterparts in the suburbs.==

Their counterparts in Harvey or Stone Park?

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 3:48 pm
So, if SB1 with tax credits passes the House with Republican support, someone, somewhere will oversimplify their campaign rhetoric to assert that the Democrats and renegade Republicans sold out the downstate public schools to subsidize Chicago public schools and parochial schools. Guaranteed you will hear that claim in the election run-up.

Comment by Motambe Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 4:26 pm
Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.

Comment by Morty Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 4:26 pm
Andersson- “I don’t see any other Republicans breaking on this issue right now,” he said. “As time goes on, if there isn’t a compromise and if schools downstate start not opening, that’s a question you’re gonna have to ask those representatives about how they feel about their districts.”

The schools will open, that is not the issue. The issue is for how long can they afford to run through their reserves and credit to STAY open. That is the trigger that should flip some R’s if this blows up. Wednesday, when the House votes on Currie’s bill of Rauner’s AV (because it is a carbon copy of his AV), there will be 100% green on the Republican side and maybe one (Drury) Dem. Next week will be an entirely new ball game when the actual override comes up. And, the pressure will be building. More town halls by the SB1 groups. More negative press on the long-term effects of the AV. And more opportunities for Rauner to quote phantoms.

Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 6:13 pm
==The issue is for how long can they afford to run through their reserves and credit to STAY open. That is the trigger that should flip some R’s if this blows up.==

I agree. It is not even clear to me that Democratic leaders are willing to provide substantial concessions now. If the override fails at the end of August, it is straightforward to wait another few months for rural Republicans to capitulate when their schools start to close.

Comment by PragmaticR Tuesday, Aug 15, 17 @ 7:26 pm