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It would’ve been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan

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Illinois
Polls

* Scott Reeder claims this…

Republican polling found [Lisa Madigan’s] approval rating about 34 percent, hardly a surprise after Gov. Bruce Rauner spent tens of millions of dollars attacking the Madigan name.

I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head.

As I’ve already written, she was guaranteed to face a brutal and seriously ugly campaign.

* Meanwhile, from Chicago’s 39th Ward Democratic organization…

*** SPECIAL GUEST THIS SATURDAY ***

Our friend and fellow committeeman Aaron Goldstien has thrown his hat into the ring for Illinois Attorney General. Aaron will join us to share his vision on this important position. Similar to us here in 39, Aaron took on the Machine and won, beating Dick Mell in 2016. He is a Public Defender and champion of social justice. Come this Saturday at 10AM to hear more!

Goldstein is the 33rd Ward Committeeman.

Everybody wants to get into the act.

* Related…

* Potential Lisa Madigan successors scramble to raise campaign cash

* Madigan kicks off whirlwind

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:48 pm

Comments

Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos?

They might be the ones to watch.

Comment by Grand Avenue Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:50 pm
===Who are the women potentially in the race? Nekritz & Spyropoulos===

I don’t know, now that Aaron Goldstein has announced, that should pretty much clear the field, don’t you think?

I’ll bet Kwame is crushed. He had a real shot before this news.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:53 pm
Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis.. C’mon Man?

Comment by Shake Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm
He may play in Dick Mell’s ward, but does anyone think Rod’s defense lawyer can play statewide? Anyone?

Seriously, anyone?

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 12:58 pm
===I checked around and was told that’s true, but she was leading Erica Harold by 10 points in the head-to-head===

I think this is the reality of the campaign, but the polling on her last name probably cost 10 or more points in a head to head with Harold.

You win by 10, 15, or 5 points, you still win, but the brutality of where the numbers started, wow.

To that, even broader,

The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites.

Before, you could take your frustration on “Lisa” from Rockford to Galena, to Cairo… now no easy “out”, only Rauner and his own disapproval numbers statewide.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:00 pm
===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

So? Rodney is a heckuva campaigner and he had the party behind him.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:05 pm
What a scoop. Does Reeder have the skinny on other candidates not running? How’s that Lincoln/Douglas rematch looking?

How do you have a 34% approval rate and still lead a named GOP opponent by 10 points, anyway?

A 34% approval rate indicates no support from Independents. A 10 point lead indicates plenty.

Doesn’t matter. It’s not even academic, it’s irrelevant.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:07 pm
So when the going looked tough Lisa packed it in? Not buying that at all. There is another plan we just aint privy to it.

Comment by theCardinal Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:12 pm
== The idea now that no “Madigan” is on a statewide ticket hurts Raunerites. ==

As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, regardless of whether there is a Madigan on the ticket. I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been - being a Democrat in the GA is now synonymous with being in league with Madigan to most Republican voters and more than a few Independents. Yes, her last name would have provided protest votes for Harold, but I also think that her not being the candidate makes it a wash - she would’ve received plenty of votes from (I)s and a few (R)s because of her reputation. The protest votes alone wouldn’t have cost her reelection.

Comment by Downstate43 Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:15 pm
I don’t think we want part of Blago’s goofy defense team as AG.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:17 pm
The problem with approval ratings is while voters in one’s own party may be disappointed, that doesn’t mean they’d prefer the other party’s candidate. This is true for office holder’s of both parties.

Comment by HJohn Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:20 pm
Lisa Madigan would win easily. Why She chose not to run certainly was not a fear of losing.

Comment by downstate hack Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm
Methinks Reeder is still smarting that the AG’s office beat him in that federal suit regarding whether he could have journalism credentials on the House floor.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:21 pm
===I think we lose sight of how successful that aspect of Rauner’s messaging has been.===

… then 63% disapproval… then the purge… then Radical Candor, as a white male…

The Rauner brand, even the Diana Rauner brand isn’t all puppies and rainbows now.

You make good points on the overall, but making this point to that…

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:23 pm
Lisa’s Next Office U.S. Senator..

Comment by Shake Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:31 pm
OW I think Rauner is a disaster and ruined my party. But being a disaster does not mean his anti Madigan ant Chicago screed is not working. And he must have really bought the party off I cannot believe there is no Republican challenging his choice for AG. Profiles in courage all of them

Comment by DuPage Saint Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:39 pm
=As a downstater, anecdotally, I can assure you that the campaign to make Mike Madigan a statewide monolith for all of IL’s ills has firmly taken hold, =

How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties?

For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. Rauner realized this and his performance where most of the people are was a big factor in his win. So was one of the worst opponents in history.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm
Lisa had broad respect for her work. The problems of this state hardly point to her. But, yes, her name is not as marketable as it was 15 years ago. We’ll see about Harold. Probably a good choice for the Republicans. Probably will not be a winner.

Comment by Anon Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:40 pm
It will be interesting to see how, if at all, Harold changes her “pitch” - anti-Madigan anti-career politician - now that Lisa Madigan’s bowed out. If Rauner is controlling the purse strings, will she be able to pivot at all? We’ll see. If she can’t project a positive, aspirational message, will be tough for her to win.

Comment by DarkHorse Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:51 pm
I agree that Lisa Madigan still probably would have won, and perhaps with a healthy spread. But that still might’ve required an amount of effort she didn’t want to put into it.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:55 pm
Maybe, just maybe, Madigan was beating Harold by 10 points in the polling at this stage because, in some measure, no one outside of the local political fever swamps knows yet who she is?

Comment by JB13 Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 1:58 pm
To JB13,

Forgive me, it’s Friday afternoon - but do you think the polling would have been closer if people knew about Harold’s impressive background, or wider if people knew about some of her more conservative policy views?

Comment by DarkHorse Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:09 pm
Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, if the GOP and the right wing hasn’t invested literally millions and decades into demonizing the name.

There’s a case to be made that Hillary should have factored that in - even if it was grossly unfair to her - and let Biden run; I do think he would have dumped Trump (assuming he would have gotten past Bernie, and let’s not start with that debate).

The right wing always needs its Democratic Demon, to cover up for the unpopularity of many of their actual policy proposals. I don’t blame Lisa for factoring that into her decision to help the Dems keep the seat, by letting a fresh face take the lead - if that was part of her calculus (no idea if it was).

Comment by ZC Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:15 pm
My theory is that many voters who dislike Michael J. Madigan are unable to vote against him, but Lisa Madigan would have to run statewide and be singled out by proxy by all of those who dislike Speaker Mike.

Could Lisa win? Maybe, but it would be costly and her margins would not be close to the softball opponents that she has beaten with ease in ‘06. ‘10 and ‘14. The Speaker is safe in his own district, but disliked in many other precincts.
Lisa spared him potential embarrassment by retiring.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:21 pm
If Lisa Madigan steps down as AG in 2019, and then runs for Senate in 2020, she’ll be able to tap donors in the financial sector that cannot donate to state elected officials. Being out of state office would make it easier to finance a Senate run.

Comment by Agricola Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:24 pm
===and then runs for Senate in 2020===

Take a breath.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:25 pm
Actually I do think Aaron Goldstein would have a good chance. He did beat a machine politician. So that’s a plus for me. Him being Blago’s defense team isn’t a bi deal considering that he is still well liked as a governor, tren what we have now🙄

Comment by Ana Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:42 pm
Good points about damage to the Madigan name.

This suggests that her future might not lie at the state electoral level. Durbin’s successor? I’m not sure that US Senator is her bailiwick. Maybe, but.

I envision her as continuing in progressive legal advocacy at the national (non-elected) level.

I haven’t met her, of course, but this is my sense from everything I’ve read to date.

Comment by dbk Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:57 pm
Ana, it’s fine if you support Goldstein. But puh-leeze, don’t try to tell us here that Rod is “still well liked as a Governor.” 13 percent approval rating at the end and I think pollsters generally don’t poll pols in the slammer.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 2:59 pm
Are we sure that Goldstein is being hosted by the 39th Ward “Regular” Democratic Organization ? The one headed my the Laurino/Barnette/D’Amico Clan ?? I find it very surprising that they would be promoting the fact that Goldstein beat Mell as they are prety tight w/ Mell.

Sounds like more of an “independent” 39th Ward Democratic Organization.

Comment by Helm Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:25 pm
@Helm:

The Laurino clan lost control of the 39th Ward Regular Democratic Organization when their candidate for Ward Committeeman (Malloy) lost in 2016. Robert Murphy is the Committeeman now.

Comment by W Flag Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 3:34 pm
Burke’s daughter runs for AG with endorsement of Dem party of IL (Madigan) … Ann Burke steps down from Supreme Court and Lisa Madigan is appointed to fill out her term

Comment by Brookfield Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:35 pm
===Harold Couldn’t Beat Rodney Davis===

And Obama couldn’t beat Bobby Rush.

Comment by Roman Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:37 pm
Frankly, this poll would effectively show “generic GOP candidate” vs. Lisa. Unless she has moderated her positions, there’s no way Harold would come within 20 points of Lisa Madigan. Her positions, at least as of a few years ago, would generously be described as just to the right of Rep. Ives. If she is still pushing anti-abortion rights, anti gay marriage, anti legalization of marijuana positions, and still supports repealing the affordable care act these numbers are just not credible. And that is before she has to start answering questions about whether or not she agrees with Rauner and Trump on a host of issues.

Comment by Lester Holt's Mustache Friday, Sep 22, 17 @ 4:40 pm
== How many people in Illinois live outside Cook and the collar counties? For anyone running against a strong Democrat in a statewide election, it is Cook and the collars that matter. ==

Like 4-5 million, depending on your definition of collars? I don’t disagree with you, though, and I wasn’t implying that downstate was going to determine the AG election, merely pointing out that despite a 63% unfavorable, BTIA has been successful in vilifying Madigan throughout the rest of the state - whether that translates to votes for Rauner remains to be seen. 63% disapproval doesn’t mean as much if many of those people are still going to vote for him as the perceived lesser of two evils.

With the close-in collars being even more competitive, a statewide Republican really needs to run the table downstate to have a shot - a Dem, not so much. I think Lisa Madigan would have certainly outperformed Pat Quinn ‘10 in Cook, Metro East, and the collars and she still would’ve pulled in more downstate votes than he did; it was hers to lose. I agree with everyone else that she didn’t get out of this because she thought she might not win.

Comment by Downstate43 Monday, Sep 25, 17 @ 9:26 am