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* My Crain’s Chicago Business column…
If you’ve watched much network or cable TV over the past six months, you may already have grown weary of all the J.B. Pritzker TV ads. And it won’t ease up anytime soon. The billionaire has spent millions of his own dollars since early May to fund his Democratic bid for governor, but the primary election is still more than five months away.
Can TV spending alone buy an election? Nope. But Pritzker already has locked down the endorsement of several unions, including the Illinois AFL-CIO, along with lots of county parties, like the Cook County Democrats, and statewide officeholders Secretary of State Jesse White and Comptroller Susana Mendoza. He has also put together a large staff that’s functioning at a pace and a level far above anyone else, including Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s team.
Can Pritzker be stopped?
As I always say, the true beauty of politics is that it can be so unpredictable at times. Plenty of seemingly “inevitable” candidates have lost. Even Chris Kennedy looked like he could have a lock on the Democratic nomination for governor a year or so ago. But then another inevitable-looking Democratic candidate lost the presidential race and Pritzker, suddenly without prospects for a Cabinet-level appointment, decided to run for governor.
It was always presumed that a member of the Kennedy family—the son of Bobby, nephew of JFK—would have no trouble raising tons of money. But in the last quarterly fundraising reporting period, which ended June 30, he raised just $700,000. That’s pocket change when you’re up against a billionaire. Pritzker, by comparison, raised $14 million in the third quarter; Biss raised $1 million.
So, everyone I’ve talked to about this campaign says one thing and only one thing about Kennedy: He needs to
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posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:29 am
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Stopped where, I ask sir?
At La Buffet table circa Golden Corral? Nah, I say. Nah.
Comment by WilmetteWillard Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:37 am
The minute Kennedy starts airing ads the tide turns. His downstate roots & Chicagoland message will carry weight. We’re still 5 months+ out.
Comment by Bob Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:38 am
The photo at the beginning of this article makes it look like the whole article was paid for by JB Pritzker
Comment by MissingG Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:40 am
Yes Pritzker seems inevitable, as does a Rauner-Pritzker fall campaign that will set records for money spent and negativity. Won’t be pretty or inspiring.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:41 am
Pritzker is trailing Kennedy in the last released polling by anyone.
Do I believe that Pritzker is trailing Kennedy? Not particularly, no reason to believe Kennedy still leads Pritzker, and Kennedy polling with 44%.
So, with no polling allowing this groundswell of endorsement after endorsement, or ad after ad being run and with miscues by others in the race, the latest polling that is publicly known is that Pritzker trails Kennedy.
You’d think with petitions out and the likes of Mendoza and Poshard and Labor and all the support that’s rolled out, the building and cobbling, the idea that you’d want to show strength makes sense. You put together $21 million dollars and spend and build and look like the frontrunner, yet you refuse, and let Kennedy have that latest poll frame you’re trailing.
I mean, Kennedy’s burn rate and a lack of media presence and actual logistical failings at events… Kennedy leads Pritzker… that’s where this race is… because actually taking it to the field, being the leader, taking the polling that goes beyond being “the annointed one”… for the love of Pete if you can’t spin that a poll is actual people actually supporting a candidate because that candidate is the candidate voters favor… Whew.
So, until I see, or read, or know, that Pritzker wants to swamp the other candidates and not pretend that all these endorsements and all these ads, and all the building of infastructure… then I guess I will accept that Kennedy leads Pritzker, because wanting to be seen with momentum but deciding to allow that momentum to be embraced and used to offset the perceived negatives of “he’s just a rich guy”, “Democrats are just around because of his money”, then, ok, I’ll buy that.
I’ll buy it knowing that Kennedy is far less likely to be leading Pritzker with all this momentum, but I’ll play along.
That means I’m playing along with evidence outside released polling, but I’ll play along. Kennedy leads. All that’s led to today… Kennedy still leads, even though it makes no sense to other things, but I’ll play along.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:57 am
With what money will he pay for those ads Bob? As Rich points out, Kennedy hasn’t raised any real $$ this quarter.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:58 am
Could it be possible that the average voter is growing weary of Billionaires buying political positions via $preading their unlimited wealth around? See Trump, Rauner and the wrath those billions have brought to the equation. Some may vote their pocketbooks.
Comment by FLEA Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:08 am
I don’t see how he can be stopped, the train is already off the tracks. Bob says Kennedy has “downstate roots.” Am I missing something?
Comment by Collinsville Kevin Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:22 am
I get it Willy. But the idea that the great disappearing act candidate is still in front defies all logic. It also defies the evidence in Kennedy’s poll showing the Pritzker momentum with him moving from 12 to 38 in six weeks. So I’m gonna assume the political laws of gravity still apply and look forward to eventual public polling that punctures the 44% myth.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:23 am
I think JB’s problem is that there’s too much of a skeezy feeling about him, and all of the ads haven’t made that go away.
Biss… Impressive numbers. I assume it was all prior to Rosa-gate? Finito.
Comment by QCLib Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:28 am
===But the idea that the great disappearing act candidate is still in front defies all logic.===
The last released polling says otherwise.
Kennedy leads.
If read what I wrote…
===Do I believe that Pritzker is trailing Kennedy? Not particularly, no reason to believe Kennedy still leads Pritzker, and Kennedy polling with 44%.
So, with no polling allowing this groundswell of endorsement after endorsement, or ad after ad being run and with miscues by others in the race, the latest polling that is publicly known is that Pritzker trails Kennedy===
That’s where this is at.
You may not like that, or think it’s unfair, but it’s not. I explain that too.
===So I’m gonna assume===
Oh boy. Even I didn’t assume, lol.
===l buy it knowing that Kennedy is far less likely to be leading Pritzker with all this momentum, but I’ll play along===
===…the political laws of gravity still apply and look forward to eventual public polling that punctures the 44% myth.===
Until then, Kennedy leads Pritzker. I’ll play along.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:29 am
I think Pritzker needs Biss to stay in the race, because I’m not sure if he currently can beat Kennedy head to head.
Comment by Chicagonk Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:31 am
The more candidates the better for JB; a multi-candidate field fracturing the vote amplifies his money and organization strengths. A one-on-one race is a different story.
We’ll see who actually makes the ballot. Kennedy, for one, has a history of head fakes when it comes to running for office.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:50 am
Other than cash what does JB bring to the table? That has not yet been made clear to open minded voters despite all the cash he’s already spent so far on his campaign. Effective use of cash is more important than having it. Connecting viscerally with the electorate is important. Until/unless he and his team get much better at forging that connection there will be room and reason for the other Dem challengers to stay in the race. Many voters across the state are genuinely and reasonably looking for a viable alternative to Gov. Rauner and may not see JB as the answer.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:56 am
===Other than cash what does JB bring to the table?===
After Rauner signed HB40, Republicans are asking the same thing, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:01 am
Kennedy’s A-1’s this quarter show about $75,000 in contributions, plus a $30,000 in-kind. He’s just not raising the money he needs to compete with Pritzker.
Comment by Century Club Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:06 am
Kennedy will need to raise a ton of money if he wants to pay for those commercials where the tape of JB and Blago shooting the breeze is played for the television audience. Kennedy should be sure to have a picture of Blago behind bars as the tape plays.
He’ll also want to show a picture of poor JB’s uninhabitable mansion with the corresponding tax bill.
If Grandpa Kennedy were around you can be sure the money would be there for those ads. Chris may want to tap into his trust fund just to get the ball rolling.
In summary, I think JB can be stopped.
Comment by Bar Louie Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:40 am
I can only speak to what I see in Springfield, but Pritzker has, by far, the most robust campaign apparatus. A few paid staffers, regular phone banks and petition drives, the beginnings of a pretty loyal volunteer core. Kennedy is pretty much invisible here. Biss has a loyal volunteer core, and his downstate staffer isn’t too far away. Pawar has a couple volunteers, and his people keep in touch.
I’d love to know what all of this looks like in Chicago.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:51 am
Is it possible that Kennedy just isn’t a very hard worker?
Miss one candidate forum, and I could understand it being a staffer mistake. Miss five, and it is on you.
Raising money comes down to connections and hard work. He certainly has the connections.
Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:05 am
Why would anyone vote for Kennedy? This is a serious question. What’s *he* done? What does *he* believe? What does in benefit the state to have him in office? And I don’t mean his family, I mean him.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:16 am
Willy,
I don’t think it’s unfair. I just think the lack of data does not mean the race is static. I’ll take your “I’ll play along” as meaning you agree with that. But right now, the only reason I’d like to see a public poll is to stop the talking point. But that’s just an annoyance - it’s not a strategic need for a campaign. So I don’t expect to see Pritzker’s campaign put something out just to stop the talking point. Bragging rights at this point are not in their strategic interest.
And Robert, you asked, “Is it possible that Kennedy just isn’t a very hard worker?”
Yes, exactly this. He’s blown off probably half the candidate forums. It’s known he hates and has avoided call time which is one of the reasons he’s not raising $$. So yea, it’s more than possible he isn’t a very hard worker. As someone who supports another candidate, I’m quite pleased by that. And maybe that’s not it. Maybe he thinks he’s entitled to the support and the money because he’s a Kennedy and the current state of the race makes him mad. Doesn’t matter. Either way the result is the same.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:34 am
=== I just think the lack of data does not mean the race is static===
In the latest released polling available, Kennedy leads, and Kennedy polls at 44%.
If others want that out there as the “latest”, I will play along.
===But right now, the only reason I’d like to see a public poll is to stop the talking point. But that’s just an annoyance - it’s not a strategic need for a campaign.===
No.
You roll out Mendoza, you roll out Poshard, you piggy back of an infastructure an ads and the bottom line is you want others to “feel” a momentum, but refuse to allow that voters, polled voters agree with the momentum? Huh?
Pritzker is a billionaire. They’re going to go after him anyway. Why not take control of the campaign, and why not show that Mendoza, Poshard, Labor, voters, they all see Pritzker as the leader Illinois needs. Who is fooled that Pritzker’s opposum hiding where things stands seems like a “strong” move?
It’s a strategy, but who do they think they’re sneaking up on?
=== Bragging rights at this point are not in their strategic interest.===
Showing that Mendoza, Poshard, Labor, voters are also showing significant support and as petitions are out, “you too” are backing a leader, the leader everyone is following…
It’s not bragging rights, is reaping what has been sowed and swamping.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:46 am
My sincere apology. Honestly.
In where I cite, often, above…
“Mendoza, Poshard, Labor”
It should also include Jesse White.
Jeez, Louise, no candidate has 2 statewide Democrats endorsing them, one included in that two is Jesse White.
So, I apologize to Sec. White’s and Pritzker’s crew. That said, it only makes louder, for me, the puzzling “laying in the weeds”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:59 am
==Why not take control of the campaign, and why not show that Mendoza, Poshard, Labor, voters, they all see Pritzker as the leader Illinois needs.==
The answer is that he’s getting all of that without releasing a poll showing him ahead. Here we are, asking if he even *can* be stopped, while Kennedy still fights off questions about dropping out.
Which brings me around to my question about this- with Kennedy fighting off questions about dropping out, why doesn’t he release a new poll showing he’s still ahead, if he is?
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:01 pm
==But right now, the only reason I’d like to see a public poll is to stop the talking point. But that’s just an annoyance - it’s not a strategic need for a campaign. So I don’t expect to see Pritzker’s campaign put something out just to stop the talking point. Bragging rights at this point are not in their strategic interest.==
A poll showing Pritzker ahead of Kennedy and the others would do more than end a talking point. It would be Pritzker’s chance to bury Kennedy. You think his fundraising is bad now, imagine of a poll came out showing him 20 points behind Pritzker. That might even knock the wishy washy Kennedy right out of the race. JB’s campaign has spent millions of dollars, you don’t think they would want a poll to show that all that work and money paid off? It is a little unfair to speculate, and maybe JB’s crew is waiting to get all their endorsements lined up before throwing down the hammer, but it seems strange to me that they would want to show some progress.
Comment by BuckinIrish Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:24 pm
===A poll showing Pritzker ahead of Kennedy and the others would do more than end a talking point. It would be Pritzker’s chance to bury Kennedy. You think his fundraising is bad now, imagine of a poll came out showing him 20 points behind Pritzker. That might even knock the wishy washy Kennedy right out of the race===
Preach.
The reason you do a poll, tout it, show voters supporting the overwhelming campaign with endorsement after endorsement is to swamp the others, and save the energy when you can.
The laying in the weeds is confusing.
When you can take full control of a primary race; financial, endorsement, polling numbers, messaging…
… you do.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:40 pm
You people and your love of polls. Eyeroll. The candidates probably have a decent idea where they stand at this point and what is working for them and what is not. Beyond that polls at this stage of the campaign are just noise.
Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:56 pm
I hear ya Willy. Obviously your strategic calculus and theirs are different. But I think Arsenal hit on something here:
“with Kennedy fighting off questions about dropping out, why doesn’t he release a new poll showing he’s still ahead, if he is?”
I think we know the answer. And it’s the same answer as to why Kennedy didn’t release a poll showing not just a head to head but with all the candidates. He wasn’t winning with everyone in the field. And he’s not winning now. Arsenal flips Willy’s question on its head. Kennedy desperately needs momentum and good news. If he had polling showing he was doing well, we would have seen it. And remember, he released the last poll to distract from his last quarter’s D2s.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:57 pm
“You people and your love of polls. Eyeroll.”
Umm yea, this is CapFax right. We’re presumed to be junkies for things like polls.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:59 pm
===Beyond that polls at this stage of the campaign are just noise.===
Tell that to fundraisers who early in letters and postcards raise monies for campaigns on, you guessed it, early polling.
- Anon0091 -
What is great here, at Rich’s place, we can talk strategy. We can talk “calculus”.
I can guarantee you that there’s not a credible campaign in the whole state of Illinois that’s looking at what I say, my opinion, or my thoughts to their success. I just have an opinion, exactly like everyone else.
To your comment and - Arsenal -…
===I think we know the answer.===
We don’t, actually. I’d say I can’t make out anything, at times, what the Kennedy crew is actually “doing”, besides adding Ra Joy, which was a solid choice, “in my opinion”, to how Kennedy sees this campaign for him.
===And it’s the same answer as to why Kennedy didn’t release a poll showing not just a head to head but with all the candidates.===
Yep. I can and I think went after that, but the fact remains, that’s the last public polling out there.
===He wasn’t winning with everyone in the field.===
Do I actually know that? Do you? Where are those numbers, in actuality?
===And he’s not winning now===
Opinion. No polling to show that to be true, and while I may agree with the premise, even whole-heartedly, I have no numbers to say that IS true.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:08 pm
Yup - I guess we’ll have to wait to find out. But if you and I were in a bar placing a gentlemen’s bet, I suspect you wouldn’t take the “Kennedy is still at 44%” bet.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:37 pm
- Anon0091 -
(Sigh)
I’ve pointed out, in numerous comments, then referring to those same comments in a later comment. I’ve made my thought(s) clear, and Kennedy still leads… in the last public poll on this race.
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:44 pm
== And it’s the same answer as to why Kennedy didn’t release a poll showing not just a head to head but with all the candidates.==
Didn’t he test all, and found Biss/Pawar were in “single digits”?
==If he had polling showing he was doing well, we would have seen it.==
The caveat here is that he simply may not have taken a poll since that last one. But with the amount of consultants he’s hired, I doubt that…
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:52 pm
Arsenal,
No, the poll they released was head to head only. The one that had all the candidates had Kennedy losing.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:04 pm
===The one that had all the candidates had Kennedy losing.===
Really?
Where can I see that poll. You must have a cite for me…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:06 pm
Two Words:
Blair Hull…
Still a while until the primary, lots can happen.
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:19 pm
Running for governor requires that you stand up on your own two feet and speak forcefully and clearly. Kennedy only has the standing on his two feet part down.
Comment by striketoo Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:03 pm
All the Dem insiders seem to be attracted to JB and his billions but thankfully that only makes up about 1% of primary vote
Comment by Etown Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:31 pm
Attention Bob: Kennedy’s “downstate roots” ?? Maybe in Massachusetts…here he is little more than a carpetbagger.
Comment by da carpetbagger Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 5:12 am