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* People need to start paying more attention to this…
U of I Flash Index slips to 104.2 in September, indicating slight slowing of economic growth in Illinois. More: https://t.co/S53skB7o8D
— U of Illinois IGPA (@IllinoisIGPA) October 2, 2017
* Whatever growth there is hasn’t been nearly enough…
While other states in the Midwest grow jobs, Illinois is stuck. pic.twitter.com/jq2o0VtJpo
— IL Working Together (@IllinoisWorking) October 2, 2017
Households leaving Illinois earned $19,600 more than households entering the state in tax year 2014-2015 https://t.co/QT9bmxIq9b pic.twitter.com/MZ2PCaLMgH
— Illinois Policy (@illinoispolicy) October 2, 2017
*** UPDATE *** From Rep. Mike Fortner…
Hi Rich,
I don’t know if you saw this yesterday, but the Census Bureau released their 2016 estimates for population and other demographics by congressional district. As we are expected to lose a district after 2020, this gives a clue as to where the losses have been greatest so far this decade. I’ve converted the raw population estimates into percentages that each congressional district is short of the national average.
IL-01 -7%
IL-02 -4%
IL-03 -3%
IL-04 -6%
IL-05 -2%
IL-06 -3%
IL-07 -2%
IL-08 -3%
IL-09 -2%
IL-10 -4%
IL-11 -1%
IL-12 -1%
IL-13 -5%
IL-14 -1%
IL-15 -5%
IL-16 -7%
IL-17 -7%
IL-18 -4%If population trends continue this way through 2020, then IL-01, 04, 12, 16, and 17 will all be at least 10% below the national average by the time of the census. That roughly suggests the amount of population those districts would have to add to comply with the next round of redistricting.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:28 am
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Two and a half years of Rauner provin’ he can’t be “bullied” didn’t help. And, yes, it was more like his famous “dog years”.
Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:36 am
The quickest boost will be getting rid of the anchor weighing us down, sitting in the state’s most important office.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:41 am
Can any of that not be attributed to the lack of a state budget? People notice that, and intelligent new job seekers pay pretty close attention to something like that. Let’s see if that growth improves in the next year or 2 now that we have a budget.
Comment by dlapine Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:42 am
Chalk one up for the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago and their “Illinois is Broke” campaign.
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:43 am
I doubt you could attribute ALL of the to the budget impasse, but it certainly did nothing to help.
Comment by Perrid Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:44 am
There is that pesky Minnesota again. I wonder what happened there besides paying their bills?/s
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:51 am
I think there is a mistake. Did you mean the IL-01, 04, 13, 16, and 17? I think you put the Illinois 12th by mistake.
Comment by Ed Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:51 am
love all the negatives
News Flash that same Census Bureau reports median salary in IL nearly $61K….surrounding states not close.
So GovJunk has not wrecked everything
Comment by annonin' Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:58 am
We need more people and jobs for sure. But, the one thing we CANNOT do is loosen up regs on the coal/oil/nat gas industries. Yeah, we have a lifetime of reserves, and the potential to lead the country in energy production and good paying jobs, but there are some people and jobs that we just don’t want. /s
Comment by Sgt. Slaughter Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:00 am
Would be intwresting to see the age demographics of the folks who are coming and going. Might give a more complete understanding of what’s going on.
Comment by Galena Guy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:00 am
Yea it’s Rauners fault. Just give us another tax increase and cave in to AFSCME and everything will be fine
Comment by Sue Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:04 am
“Yea it’s Rauners fault. Just give us another tax increase and cave in to AFSCME and everything will be fine”
No, Rauner has nothing to do with the last two and a half years. Everything is everybody else’s fault. There’s no personal responsibility from the folks who look for logs in their opponents’ eyes but don’t see them in their own.
Rauner could have saved the state money by negotiating health insurance costs with state employees, but here we are, tied up in courts over the contract impasse, with tons of ill will and no savings for taxpayers on employee healthcare costs. Not smart or conservative.
And yes, Minnesota blows away any rationale that we have to go full right wing to improve our economy.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:18 am
Probably hasn’t been good for the economy to spend nearly three years without a capital plan, gutting higher ed and piling on $10B in unpaid bills to Illinois vendors.
Might be helpful for the state to focus on fulfilling its core functions, rather than deliberately sabotaging them.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:28 am
MI union town 2nd largest growth. MN high taxes and 15hr min wage greatest growth.
Basically everything the GOP is fighting has created the largest growth in our neighbors
Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:29 am
==Minnesota blows away any rationale that we have to go full right wing to improve our economy.==
Minnesota taxes retirement income.
And while Minnesota has been adding jobs, they are not in the preferred “gross value add” or high GDP sectors like Finance, Information Services, and Mining, which are losing jobs. So high bars don’t tell the entire story.
IPI’s stats are the most concerning. If the people leaving Illinois not only outnumber those arriving but also make more, we are in for a world of hurt.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:32 am
I’ve said this again in some similar threads, but this, more so than gaffes and staff drama, moreso than HB40, is what really imperils Rauner’s re-election. He’s just not delivered for anyone.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:57 am
“So high bars don’t tell the entire story.”
You’re right, lest we forget—much higher incomes, full union rights and high union membership, which means higher pay in the vast majority of industries and occupations, nationwide.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:59 am
Illinois’ downward trajectory predates Rauner by a couple of Governors as did the loss of congressional districts buts let’s blsme Rauner anyway
Comment by Sue Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:02 pm
Ghost, help me understand your “MI union town 2nd largest growth.” All six states bordering Illinois now are right-to-work, Michigan included. (Yes, Michigan borders Illinois, in Lake Michigan, just as Illinois borders three other states in river waters). The graph only measures a one-year nightmare for Illinois, but does right-to-work explain the leakage of employers and jobs across our state lines?
Also, we’ve gone from 27 U.S. House seats to 18 and the drop to 17 is assured. Late last year, number-crunchers at RealClearPolitics reported that “Illinois is close to losing a second seat” after the 2020 census.
Lose one or lose two, this endless decline in congressional clout is miserable for Illinois.
Comment by Moody's Blues Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:06 pm
Of the five districts losing the most population, four are mainly downstate. Only CD 4 is completely in the Chicago area.
Comment by anon2 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:07 pm
As soon as all those low down do nothing conservatives leave the state everything will be okay. Everyone else needs to line up behind Madigan and his many minions so that this wonderful, all knowing benevolent man can lead us out of the desert. We need to embrace the opportunity to increase taxes across the state so that all the neglected infrastructure can be addressed. We will also need to increase taxes further to address the ever growing pension shortfall. Fear not my fellow citizen, as these great public servants deserve a much better retirement than you could ever hope for yourself or your children.
The State of Illinois is destined for great things. As soon as we can figure out how to increase our taxes while remaining on the government dole, we are all set.
Comment by Lucky Lou Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:17 pm
“Illinois’ downward trajectory predates Rauner by a couple of Governors as did the loss of congressional districts buts let’s blsme Rauner anyway”
From the Chicago Tribune: “Illinois’ population first began to drop in 2014, when the state lost 11,961 people. That number more than doubled in 2015, with a loss of 28,497 people, and further multiplied in 2016.” (emphasis added)
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-illinois-population-decline-met-20161220-story.html
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:22 pm
“let’s blsme Rauner anyway”
Poor Rauner, he’s a victim of the last 2 1/2 years, with no budgets, massive cuts to higher ed, debt skyrocketing, slow job growth, people leaving the state, social services decimated.
Sorry for assigning personal responsibility to him. That belongs to those who are poor and need social services but shouldn’t get them because of bad life choices.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:24 pm
===As soon as all those low down do nothing conservatives===
Rauner is not, by any measure, a social or fiscal conservative.
===Everyone else===
Oh boy,
===needs to line up behind Madigan and his many minions===
Take a breath, you’re hyper-ventilating. I say this as Rauner is allegedly losing Republicans by the trash can van full, and your concern is Madugan?
===We need to embrace the opportunity to increase taxes across the state so that all the neglected infrastructure can be addressed.===
When construction materials and labor to do the work starts taking pixie dust instead of money, or bonds are let for the financial equivalency of a pile of Hostess Twinkees, then this will make sense.
===We will also need to increase taxes further to address the ever growing pension shortfall.===
The ILSC made clear pensions are to be paid, so again, pixie dust or a huge pile of Hostess Twinkies won’t suffice.
===Fear not my fellow citizen, as these great public servants deserve a much better retirement than you could ever hope for yourself or your children.===
Jealousy isn’t becoming. You could’ve worked for the state or taken a job with a public pension. You chose not to.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:25 pm
Tongue in cheek escapes some of the less intelligent I guess. And just for you, a special heartfelt lol.
Comment by LL Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:41 pm
I’m guessing “LL” is - Lucky Lou -
Yeah, your noted and well known snarky comments and tone should go without saying.
lol
What’s next, guess what you’re thinking you want for Supper?
(That is snark)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:45 pm
Thank you Sue and Lucky Lou for proving my point about state worker disparagement. Word was right that you wouldn’t comment on the post yesterday but would be back today.
Anyway, let’s have an economic lesson.
Velocity of money
Basically how quickly money is plowed back into the economy.
More important than outflow of people is
The 16 billion denied our own contractors
(Although good news! My kids orthodontist finally got paid by my state insurance for the braces invoice almost 3 years ago. Yea! No more collection calls trying to recover the states portion! )
Anyway, that’s 16 billion or 10 with the bonds that isn’t getting plowed back
Add no Capital plan for two years
Add the destruction of private social services ( mom and pop)
Add the destruction of higher Ed
Your basically severely restricting the velocity of money
Which in turn creates
Illinois flight
Which creates IPI, Tronc headlines
Which creates the crisis Rauner wants to exploit
Increase velocity of money
Like Minnesota
We’d be in a lot better shape
Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:55 pm
===well known===
And I didn’t think you noticed. That means a lot.
In all seriousness, just think of all the time spent here over the years. Isn’t there something else you could gave done. The incessant blathering, not to mention your own special brand of snark. You’re better than that OW. Aim higher.
Comment by Louis IV Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:08 pm
- Lucky Lou -, - LL -, - Louis IV -
Your multiple personalities aside,
Your concern for me and my aim is noted.
If you could aim at one nickname that might hit the target better than the snark(?)
To the Post,
There is a difference between stagnant population and actually losing population, but when Congressional Districts’ populations rise, meaning 435 seats should be 1 million people (for argument’s sake and round figures) and the next census means 435 seats should be 1.1 million, a stagnant or population loss is amplified as to keeping seats when the population(s) in districts are increasing no matter what.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:16 pm
anon2@12:07 - IL-01 is mostly in Chicago and Cook with a minority in Will, and it’s farther behind than IL-04. That puts two of the five firmly in Chicagoland. One can even make the case that IL-16 is in between Chicagoland and Downstate since much of its population is in the Ring Around the Collars.
Comment by State Rep Mike Fortner Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:27 pm
I suppose the commenters here would blame Gov. Rauner for losing a seat in the 2010 census, too.
Comment by ChrisB Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:39 pm
= One can even make the case that IL-16 is in between Chicagoland and Downstate since much of its population is in the Ring Around the Collars. =
Is that the district that the next map will apply Wisk detergent to?
Comment by cover Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:44 pm
–I suppose the commenters here would blame Gov. Rauner for losing a seat in the 2010 census, too.–
Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.
You could probably attribute most of that to immigration. That’s usually how it works in wealthy, mature economies with negative replacement growth. See Europe and Japan.
If you’re confused about how Congressional representation works, it’s share of population, not growth of population.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:59 pm
==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==
USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:47 pm
==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==
USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.–
So what?
Did you expect that Illinois growth rate would be close to that of Texas, Florida, Arizona, California?
How and/or why?
Immigration from Mexico, birth rates, air conditioning, interstate highways, jet engines, water and power projects — you think they might trump that pop tax as influencers?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:17 pm
@wordslinger
==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==
USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.–
So what?
Did you expect that Illinois growth rate would be close to that of Texas, Florida, Arizona, California?
How and/or why?==
The how is changing the corrupt “people exist to serve the government” culture that has run Illinois into the ground. The whole system from capital to education is set up to benefit the public worker and contractors FAR above that in the private sector, and the political support and money that brings to the pols. It’s very successful in that. The problem is that when you have government that time and again devastates industries (gas taxes, soda and sales taxes, increasing income taxes and Blago’s trucking fees that killed the industry in Illinois are some examples) businesses know that Illinois governments will do whatever is necessary to maintain their patronage base, and there are better places to go where business is considered more than a temporary revenue source. NO business, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. NO workers, no market for business creating a cycle. Pretty simple, but no elected official cares to break it…
Comment by Arizona Bob Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 6:42 pm
–NO business, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. NO workers, no market for business creating a cycle. Pretty simple, but no elected official cares to break it…–
Yeah, just like that.
Well, Bob,it is sad that Illinois lost a remarkable renaissance man like yourself, what with your building nuke plants, roads and bridges, teaching at high schools and universities, running GOP candidates on the South Side and so much more back in your day.
You remember saying all that stuff?
You should put it all in a book before you forget.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 7:34 pm
Illinois is economic disaster. without Chicago the state would be like Mississippi
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:01 pm
Minnesota has a strong history of high quality public services and a state government largely free of corruption. And Illinois? Let the laughter commence.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:59 pm
The IMA has been talking about the manufacturing jobs numbers for more than a year. Illinois trails the Midwest in manufacturing job growth - every other state has grown and Illinois has lost jobs since the recession ended.
Z
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:30 pm
Word- you must have been a great math student- if the other jurisdictions have a faster growth rate then Illinois- their “share” of the population for congressional districts will be bigger thus Illinois will lose seats
Comment by Sue Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:17 am
@wordslinger
Well, Bob,it is sad that Illinois lost a remarkable renaissance man like yourself, what with your building nuke plants, roads and bridges, teaching at high schools and universities, running GOP candidates on the South Side and so much more back in your day.
You remember saying all that stuff? =
I don’t just remember saying it, Word, I remember doing it. I don’t get involved in that much anymore. I’ve got late stage idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and if I don’t get a lung transplant soon I’ll be taking a permanent dirt nap.
Comment by Arizona Bob Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 12:53 pm