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* From the governor’s presentation to potential buyers of the state’s new bonds…
The State’s Credit Fundamentals are Improving
* Together with the 2017D Bonds, the 2017ABC Bonds will pay off approximately $6.0 billion of outstanding bills and is expected to result in the receipt of additional federal funds
* By the end of fiscal year 2018, the bill backlog is expected to be approximately $7.5 billion, a nearly 50% reduction
Recent Developments
* Passage of fiscal year 2018 Budget
* Permanent increase in personal income tax and corporate income tax rates to 4.95% and 7.00% respectively
* Passage of Tier 3 Pension Plan and funding changes
* Passage of Senate Bill 1947 (PA 100-465), which provided for an evidence-based method of allocating funding among the state’s school districts
* Reauthorization of EDGE Tax Credits to improve the State’s competitiveness for major economic development projects
* Reduced risk to swap counterparties by renegotiating rating triggers […]The State’s base spending commitments are expected to exceed forecasted revenues by approximately $1.5 billion
Notice how they skate over that budget “passage” thingy without mentioning the veto and how they point out the tax hike the governor vetoed improves fiscal stability.
The governor’s budget director is listed as one of the authors.
* From the budget office’s five-year forecast…
The Governor cited an unbalanced budget at the time of the veto and did not support passage of a state budget that raised taxes without spending controls and structural governmental, economic and fiscal reforms.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) estimates a $1.7 billion general funds structural deficit.
Without changes to the current trajectory of the state’s finances, the projected deficit for fiscal year 2019 is $2.15 billion and the bill backlog could grow to an estimated $13.7 billion by the end of fiscal year 2023.
So, the deficit in the bond document is $1.5 billion, but the deficit in the GOMB document is $1.7 billion. Then again, that latter deficit is based solely on the budget as passed and revenues as currently projected. The governor wants to cut a couple hundred million in spending on his own.
* Back to the bond statement…
Illinois Remains the Economic Powerhouse of the Midwest and Continues to Grow […]
Illinois’ Economic Growth is Driven by a Large, Highly Educated Population and Diverse Employment Mix
The document points out our rising per capita income, rising GDP and declining unemployment rates.
* Budget office…
As has been the case for many years, Illinois’ economic growth continues to lag the nation, a condition that is expected to continue throughout the five-year forecast horizon absent reforms. U.S. real GDP grew 1.5 percent in 2016 while Illinois’ real GDP grew just 0.9 percent. The recovery of employment in Illinois since the recession has also lagged behind the nation. The U.S. experienced a 1.18 percent growth in total nonfarm employment from August 2016 to August 201715 while Illinois’ total nonfarm employment contracted by 0.57 percent.
[Hat tip: Mackey]
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 10:35 am
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Typical Rauner, saying one thing to one group and the exact opposite to someone else.
He really thinks we’re too dumb to catch on.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 10:42 am
So this statement is just as accurate as all the other ones Rauner has made about Illinois’ financial health?
Comment by RNUG Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 10:43 am
47, some of the people, all of the time.
But it’s telling that when the governor is forced to reference actual facts and data, as he is here, his rhetoric does a 180 from the usual willfully ignorant Rauner/tronc/IPI death spiral tantrums.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 10:53 am
The Administration is not talking out of both sides of its mouth. It’s talking out of two mouths, neither of which is to be believed
Comment by Truthteller Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 10:54 am
Rauner trapped himself between his partisan campaigning instead of beinv a governor. Understandably, all governors are political, but normally they respect the governing work necessary to do the job. Rauner is an abberation from that norm. The “shaking up” he did wasn’t policy based as much as it was througb incompetence.
So he cornered himself between his duties and his politics. He’d have no accomplishments if not for those legislators who ended up sacrificing themselves against his campaign wrath. What Rauner touts as governor, was threatened by him.
This governor is massively incompetent and unable to convince anyone he couldn’t buy. He has no alternative plans to his goals. So he can’t compromise. So he can’t govern.
Worse governkr ever.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 11:01 am
What do they mean by end of fiscal year? Is this a continuation of the six month lapse period rather than the traditional 2 months? We are going to spend six months paying billions in past due bills, right?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 11:03 am
== What do they mean by end of fiscal year? ==
I would assume June 30, 2018 (the end of FY18).
Comment by RNUG Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 11:10 am
So if “the State’s base spending commitments are expected to exceed forecasted revenues by approximately $1.5 billion” then Governor Rauner ended up supporting a significantly unbalanced budget as did the Democrats. Of course base spending commitments do not include accumulated debt. So much for the evidence based model of school funding approach actually forwarding millions more to school districts around the state unless revenue is increased.
Comment by Rod Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 11:21 am
Services, or data between businesses. https://pristinegalerie.tumblr.com/post/166154486301/5-quick-and-also-dirty-tips-for-generating-income
Comment by shopify marketing Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 5:16 pm
“2017ABC Bonds will pay off approximately $6.0 billion of outstanding bills”…still gotta pay off the bond. Where does the actual cash come from. A lower interest rate is a nice step.
Comment by zatoichi Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 8:46 pm
Many on-line shops/businesses fall short in this area. https://ilovethewolf.tumblr.com/post/166154567444/an-efficient-web-content-administration-system
Comment by shopify marketing Monday, Oct 16, 17 @ 11:41 pm