Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: The great Rauner pivot of 2017
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Posted in:
* The setup…
Rep. Jeanne Ives, considering challenging Rauner in the primary, says she will NOT support him if he's on the ballot next November.
— Tahman Bradley (@tahmanbradley) October 23, 2017
The background is here.
* The Question: Assuming she runs, what do you make of Rep. Jeanne Ives’ chances against Gov. Rauner in the GOP primary? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:55 pm
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: The great Rauner pivot of 2017
Next Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Her odds of winning are lousy; her odds of embarrassing Rauner are pretty good.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:57 pm
Seems selfish, unrealistic and unattainable. Although Rauner’s foundation isn’t concrete, it is still a solid foundation. She won’t win the primary and will only hurt her future potential when she wants to run for higher office again.
Comment by Ambassador Abe Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 2:58 pm
If she can raise some money, like minimum seven figures, then she can really mobilize the pro-life voters who are rightfully upset about HB40. That is a pretty well-organized network of folks that’s been effectively mobilized in the past. The question is, how large is it and can she grow it with such a short time-frame?
Even if she gets the vote of every Republican voter for whom HB40 is the most important issue, I still don’t see her knocking off Rauner. I’d like to be wrong, but I still think she loses 60-40.
She’ll give him fits on the trail and in debates though. Those would be really fun to watch, must-see TV for me.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:00 pm
If she runs, she’ll break into double digits - but not by much. Still, she will do better than the 6% Proft got in the 2010 primary. The Illinois right wing can’t acknowledge that this isn’t Alabama. General elections Illinois are won by politicians running as fiscal conservatives with a socially liberal bent.
Comment by phocion Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:02 pm
“what do you make of Rep. Jeanne Ives’ chances against Gov. Rauner in the GOP primary?”
Slim and none.
As soon as she makes it official, dark money groups will finance television ads that’ll define her as an unhinged kook. The ads will have a distinctly sexist tone.
And they will work.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:02 pm
Better than Scott Lee Cohen’s and worse than Roland Burris’. She has neither Burris’ name ID nor Cohen’s $$$$$$$.
Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:03 pm
Over/Under “37.5%”
Rauner will take his lumps and use those lumps to do things like “congratulate” Jesse White while Dems just let Rauner off the hook daily and Rauner will try to use both Ives and Walsh to show how “normal” hurting social services, crippling higher education, signing HB40 and every other Dem supported social service position bill…
… and Ives will take her 37% and do something else.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:04 pm
So Rauner is now “Hillary” to Jeanne, huh;)
Agree with Arsenal and 47th- I do want to see a debate between the two of them, and watch Jeanne chase Rauner around the state demanding answers to her questions about his leadership. Popcorn stocks will see a double or triple digit rise if this does happen:)
Comment by Anon221 Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:04 pm
She could win. Rauner is a completely unelectable disaster who can’t buy the groups of voters he has lied to.
Really, the only people supporting Rauner are the ones who think he can beat Pritzker. The sooner they realize he can’t is the sooner they jump ship.
Rauner has done to himself what he has done to taxpayers and the unborn.
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:04 pm
The majority of Illinois population is conservative anti social service pro life advocates, so she should win by a landslide, especially in cook county.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:05 pm
I think her chances are okay and could get better if she gets some heavy bread to have enough funds to get out her message.
I give her a chance because of HB 40 and the sanctuary state. I think if she gets out the message that Rauner caved on the income tax hike, it’s all the better for her. That’s a powerful message. Rauner’s running to get rid of the tax hike when he could have fought tooth and nail to stop the veto override? That could be easily attacked from the right.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:07 pm
Arsenal @ 2:57 pm:
===Her odds of winning are lousy; her odds of embarrassing Rauner are pretty good.===
And her odds of embarrassing herself are flawless.
Comment by Dome Gnome Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:10 pm
Anybody over Rauner…..rxcept the little plumber boy.
Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:16 pm
A viable serious primary challenge to Rauner on the right would be fine. Ives ain’t it.
Ives’ name recognition–almost 0.
Ives’ ability to raise money– almost 0
Ives’ ability to put together a functioning campaign staff–0
Ives’ chances of winning the governorship–0
Comment by Responsa Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:22 pm
Proft his family pet voted for him.
Comment by DeseDemDose Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:23 pm
Primary voters are different from general election voters.
The question is can she organize and mobilize enough primary voters to knock Rauner out? Are there that many Republicans who are upset with the Raunerite hijacking of the GOP? Or are they willing to overlook the Raunerite stuff in exchange for cold hard cash?
I don’t know the answer to that. So far, I still hear fiscal conservatives standing by Rauner. And what amazes me is some of those “true believers” are state employees and retirees who Rauner has constantly attacked.
I just don’t know if that core of true believers can be overcome the amount of outraged GOP members. I hate to say it, but my gut says the GOP will choose cash over principals.
Comment by RNUG Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:24 pm
100%. Rauner’s toast. He’s finished. He’s yesterday’s news.
Comment by Chris Robling's muse Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:25 pm
- Ghost - Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:05 pm:
-Ghost-
The majority of Illinois population is conservative anti social service pro life advocates, so she should win by a landslide, especially in cook county.
And…. no one commented on this comment? /snark?/
Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:30 pm
No chance. A one-issue candidate will not win in IL, even against Rauner. I’ll probably vote for her in the primary, unless I (probably) jump parties for the first time in my life… Rauner didn’t get my vote last time, and he won’t get it this time….
Comment by downstate commissioner Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:34 pm
Zero.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:41 pm
I she has no chance of winning. But I think that her candidacy will help Rauner in the general because he will look more palatable to those suburban women he features in his first ad. that is the ballgame.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:43 pm
She’ll be the next in the long line of far-right social conservatives elected statewide in Illinois, such as …. um…
Comment by PJ Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:43 pm
I like the OW 37.5% over under. But I will take the under. She could probably get 30% depending on what happens in the course of the campaign. Not enough to win, but enough to weaken Rauner further. Not that he needs the help.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:43 pm
It’s hard to see that Ives is electable on what appears to be a single issue platform. And if she is inclined to go beyond the single issue that seems to be propelling her it would be interesting to see how she explains her enabling behavior over the past 2+ years. Unless someone starts writing her really big checks I can’t take anything she says seriously.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:44 pm
no chance, but she could contribute to his defeat in November. He’s running uphill anyway.
She represents the suicide wing of the GOP.
Comment by jim Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:47 pm
Less tan 1% and I’m only giving her that high of a chance because it’s a really weird political environment right now. Like him or not, Rauner gives Republican’s the best chance to win (at least over Ives).
Comment by Ahoy! Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:52 pm
She’ll get trounced and there are 70 million reasons why.
Comment by Nick Name Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:54 pm
She could win, if she can keep her wits about her during a campaign. that’s a big if?
Rauner is already running as a Democrat. Next thing you know he’ll be touting Suzanna Mendoza at a Latina Women’s Right’s Rally for transparency.
Off years do not attract GOP moderate voters to the polls for the primary.
This will boil down to can the “Right” actually win a real Republican primary.
Truthfully if they can’t mobilize and beat Rauner they should just stop coming to Springfield. Their cause is over and done.
Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:56 pm
She might do a little better then Alan Keys but not much
Comment by old time golfer Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 3:57 pm
=== Their cause is over and done===
It’s Illinois. Their cause never even really got going here, and never will. Move to Alabama if that’s what you want.
Comment by PJ Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:00 pm
Ives is deciding what and how she is going to go about this if she goes.
If she can get to $5 million, that’s the number (ads for 8 weeks, a limited, controlled GOTV) where a dent of 37.5% could be seen, and mobilized.
The key here is if Ives sees this as a Crusade, not a mathematically ($) weighed decision based on that number, then it becomes all about how effective Ives can be in the circles that churn out conservative block voters.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:01 pm
I’d like her chances better if she had been the contrarian voice questioning Rauner’s moves and motives along the way. But up until HB40 she didn’t have much too say. Which leads me to believe that she’s ok with just about everything else that Rauner has done.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:02 pm
Oh…I don’t know…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JW7CNba_dFI
Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:16 pm
Run Jeannie run. She should pick Dan proft for her running mate
Comment by Honeybadger Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:29 pm
Where are the sane, qualified Republicans? What has happened to the Republican Party?
Comment by Professor Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:31 pm
—A one-issue candidate—
Good thing for Rep. Ives that she cares deeply about several issues, and has been vocal about them in the GA, even if I don’t agree with her all the time. Who is the one issue candidate you are referring too?
Comment by pundemonium Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Rauner’s actions have done far more to damage his base than Blagus ever did, yet Edwin eisendrath got 29% against black. Eisendrath never had a debate and got very litltle coverage. Alan Keyes got over 20% against Barack obama. That 20% pro life evangelical, plus the frustrated base looking to make a statement without pulling a dem ballot will get whomever challenges rauner close to 30% with little effort.
Comment by Anon Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Steve Baer got 33% against Jim Edgar in 1990. Difference there was Edgar wasn’t an incumbent. I think Ives could get near that.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:34 pm
===What has happened to the Republican Party?===
Raunerism.
Rauner and Raunerism is the complete opposite of a time when you could have an Edgar Crew, GHR Crew, Jim Ryan Crew, Lolita Crew, a JBT Crew… and the Caucuses were autonomous allowing growth for conservatives and moderates and a bench to bench to backfill and run statewide.
We let a stranger in our House and the phony cafeteria conservatives will aid Rauner and continue to cripple the defunct former ILGOP.
It’s over. It’s all over.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:36 pm
can’t win
Can make GovJunk look like a sympathetic moderate
Unless we reveal this is really orchestrated by Madigan it will pave the way for a D win.
Comment by Annonin' Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:37 pm
===Where are the sane, qualified Republicans?===
They’re on the east coast in places like Maryland and Massachusetts, becoming the most popular governors in the nation.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:43 pm
Agreed with Oswego Willy and 47th Ward. The abortion bill will give her an okay foundation but the stairs up from that are really steep. I think I’d take the under on OW’s odds.
Comment by whetstone Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:44 pm
To the post, I think with a bit of money she has a better chance than most here would think. Too much deference is given to suburban women voters, who while very important in the general are not necessarily the prime targets in a primary. If (and its a big IF) religious conservatives are serious when they say Rauner crossed the line with HB40, she has a very good chance. Rauner might have more money, but the religious right are the backbone of the IL Republican Party. These are the people who knock on doors, man phone banks, and convince other members of their church/social group/social media contacts to vote for one republican over another. They, along with hardcore Trump supporters angry that Rauner signed the sanctuary state bill, could very well outnumber the country club/Raunerite republicans. These folks don’t need a million commercials and direct mail pieces to tell them who to vote for before deciding.
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 4:55 pm
Not a chance she can win fighting the avalanche of Rauner’s millions. But, she may convince many on the far right to stay home in the general.
Comment by Wensicia Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:06 pm
Any foreseeable impact from cross-over voters in the primary? Labor cross-over voters last time caused Rauner to go underground with his union busting talk. Could they knock him out?
Comment by Johnnie F. Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:14 pm
I will say she has a 50% chance, and will come in stronger than most think. I and almost all of my family and friend who voted for Rauner last election have already said they will not vote for him now because of his lack of truthfulness, signing the abortion bill, running up greater debt, sanctuary state, etc. Now with the news on his efforts to get a Federal Bill to diminish state workers rights and pensions they are now starting to actively seek to work against him. Even if she runs and Rauner beats her in the primary, he will not will the general election. Thinking the party will dump him entirely and maybe she will be viewed at in the future.
Comment by ejpp Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:16 pm
I don’t like her chances even against Rauner.
I don’t like Rauner’s chances, even against JB.
But I would never say never. Latest example is the current resident of the White House.
Comment by Lew Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:44 pm
I have talked to Rep Ives about specific issues in the House Approbations-Elementary & Secondary Education committee. She was not in the least an empty shell about public school finances.
She is one of the only pro-school choice Republicans that I know of who opposed the tax voucher part of Senate Bill 1947 because she actually read the bill in detail and understood the scholarship money will be awarded largely in key focus districts. She is a big supporter of funding for private education. But she represents Wheaton and they weren’t going to see much of that money based on the specifics of the bill.
So my bet is if there were a debate between Rauner and Ives, she would come out ahead within the conservative universe. OW’s guess as to the votes she might get seem reasonable.
Comment by Rod Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:48 pm
Ives has zero chance of winning. Rauner should be funding her campaign as it helps him masquerade as a moderate fighting the extreme right and Madigan’s minions on the left.
Comment by Eddie Spaghetti Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:54 pm
===She is one of the only pro-school choice Republicans…===
I bet she cringed when she read that. Not that it is wrong, and it is a compliment to be sure. I just have a feeling she wouldn’t use that term if she was describing herself. Lol.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 5:56 pm
Surprised nobody has mentioned Bannon. If Rauner were a Senator he’d already have three challengers and some Renaissance money. With multiple national-profile primary races with similar conservative challengers, I would not underestimate her ability to get some traction and funding.
Comment by Workin' Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 6:18 pm
I know nothing of current GOP primary polling and I assume those who have good polling data are well paid not to talk about it in these comments.
It’s conceivable that there could be a critical mass of toxicity against Rauner in the primary because of HB40/general dissatisfaction/whatever (I would never pretend to be in the heads of GOP primary voters).
It’s also conceivable he’s doing fine. Based on his terrible but still existent general polling I would GUESS he’s fine with his base, or else he’d be in Chris Christie territory. But again, this would require good numbers from a professional.
Comment by Will Caskey Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 6:26 pm
Her problem is that she is no different than Rauner except for abortion.
Comment by Winnin’ Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 7:49 pm
Passion matters a lot in politics. Voters who don’t care are hard to get to the polls. and voters who really do care will always show up. HB40 was an unacceptable insult to a significant faction. And yes, there are that many single issue voters.
I would expect Rauner to lose the primary.
Comment by Odysseus Monday, Oct 23, 17 @ 8:34 pm
rauner fought Illinois turning sixty three percent of the population into enemies, that can’t wait to vote against the venture capitalist
Comment by Rabid Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 6:51 am
Apparently, Ghost lives in a different Illinois than I do.
Comment by Aldyth Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 7:31 am
No one really knows, she can’t be a single issue candidate, becuase she’s got the pro-life vote the minute she declares, the end-game has to be hammering Rauner for mis-managing the budget negotiations. Then if it looks like you’re going to lose, then you can start throwing bombs at the people who claim to worship science yet can’t figure out what’s growing in a pregnant woman’s womb.
Either way she should run. The pro-life movement is better with Rauner losing, even in the general, than winning, although obviously neither choice is good.
Comment by AndyIllini Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 7:52 am
“If she can raise some money, like minimum seven figures, then she can really mobilize the pro-life voters who are rightfully upset about HB40. That is a pretty well-organized network of folks”
If she can’t raise “minimum seven figures,” then the pro-life voters aren’t as well organized as people think, or they care more about money issues than life.
Comment by PDJT Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 7:56 am
People seem to forget that just last year James Marter got just under 30% in the GOP primary against Kirk. And that was with 0 name rec and 0 money. If she is able to raise 7 figures, she could have a shot.
Comment by LC Illini Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:08 am