Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Pundit says 20 percent chance Illinois bonds will be restructured
Next Post: Fioretti still hasn’t made a final decision on challenging Preckwinkle
Posted in:
* This video is going kinda mini-viral on Facebook and Twitter…
Wonder why Rauner forgot MN Gov. @MarkDayton in his latest ad…🤔 #ilgov #twill pic.twitter.com/vsl7aXIQ1N
— IL Working Together (@IllinoisWorking) November 1, 2017
Minnesota has a much different and much healthier economy than we do. As the ad points out, the state’s unemployment rate was 6.8 percent before Gov. Dayton took office. At the same time, Illinois’ rate was 9.3 percent.
* And man, is it ever lousy here. From COGFA…
Illinois’ economy continues to lag the nation as well as surrounding states even as the current economic recovery, while comparatively long in historical terms, remains the weakest in the post WWII period. From 2010, following the start of the recovery in mid-2009 through 2016, inflation adjusted GDP in the United States averaged 2%. The pace of growth was below that of 2.4% on average in the years from 2001 to 2007, which included 3.8% growth in 2004 and 3.3% in 2005. This in turn was well below the average growth rate of 3.87% from 1992 to 2000, with growth in a rage of 4.1% to 4.7% each year from 1997 to 2000.
The latest Illinois forecast by IHS Markit was done in early October and is located at the top of the next page. The table shows Real Gross State Product remaining in the 1.0% area each year from 2015 through 2017, before rising at an average growth rate of 1.7% in the years 2018 – 2020.
One of the more notable aspects of Illinois’ economy in recent years has been the recurrent outflow of people from the state. Illinois’ population continues to decline and at best is forecast to hold steady by 2019 and 2020. Total employment in Illinois thus indicates little in the form of growth, rising 1% or less during the forecast years. As a result of such weakness, Illinois’ unemployment rate is anticipated to continue higher than in most states as its ace of improvement is projected to lag that of the nation as a whole as well as that of the Midwest.
In September the national unemployment rate was 4.2% with the 12 states comprising the Midwest at the same 4.2% rate. However, unemployment rates differed greatly among the 12 Midwest states. The highest rates in the Midwest in September were Ohio, which had an unemployment rate of 5.3%, followed by Illinois, which had the second highest rate at 5.0%, and Michigan at 4.3%.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:29 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Pundit says 20 percent chance Illinois bonds will be restructured
Next Post: Fioretti still hasn’t made a final decision on challenging Preckwinkle
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Minnesota isn’t contiguous to Illinois. Also happens to be a more liberal state. One with healthier financials…
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:31 am
While we’re adding Minnesota, let’s add no-state-income-tax Tennessee. It’s closer to Illinois anyway.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:37 am
At least part of Illinois slow recovery is due to the Rauner 2-year non-budget. It left too much uncertainty as to what future taxes would be.
Comment by DuPage Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:40 am
“Minnesota isn’t contiguous to Illinois. Also happens to be a more liberal state. One with healthier financials…”
Yes, it has healthier financials and a better economy because of the liberal policies of Mark Dayton. That’s the whole freakin’ point. The went from $6.8B deficit to $1.2B surplus. You don’t have to decimate unions and the middle class to succeed.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:43 am
Minnesota doesn’t border Illinois….
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:50 am
Chicago cynic, One can argue that the union pensions are why Illinois is why it is
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 10:52 am
It’s not the pensions that are the problem. It’s the failure of government leadership to fund the pensions.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:05 am
Too bad no one reads Sun Times their editorial could have been dropped in here
Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:10 am
==You don’t have to decimate unions and the middle class to succeed.==
But you do need to have a financially healthy state, with stable contributions to pensions, etc… Reform is needed.
By the way, the middle class in Illinois has been declining. Specifically those who are employed by the Private Sector.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:23 am
If the best response to this piece is “Minnesota isn’t contiguous to Illinois,” then this is clearly a very effective piece.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:26 am
==By the way, the middle class in Illinois has been declining.==
By comparison, Minnesota’s median income was rising faster than the US on average for a number of years. So their tax base has been able to support their tax increases.
Illinois’ demographics are quite different than Minnesota. Could Minnesota support Illinois’ socio-economic requirements? Not sure.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:39 am
Deflect much?
Comment by Shemp Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 12:07 pm
It’s a great video. This, all day and night, to counter the Rauner campaign’s narratives. No way should Illinois ever enact anti-union policies, like all the regional Republican states. Minnesota and other full union states are proof. Colorado is a great example, with a super-low unemployment rate. RtW states are the vast majority of the poorest states.
We can’t be other states, nor should we be, but it’s clear we don’t have to follow the ALEC/Rauner/Koch brothers models.
We don’t need super-rich corporate types like Rauner to try to extort precious and vital labor rights away from working class people, threatening them that unless there’s local or full RtW, jobs won’t come. Rauner used the state’s most vulnerable people and their social services, as well as unpaid bills, education—the entire state budget—as wedges to try to pry apart the Democrats from unions. See how much damage these people are willing to inflict to strip protections away from working people.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 12:28 pm
==Colorado is a great example, with a super-low unemployment rate.==
With a flat state income tax rate lower than ours and much lower property taxes. I agree, let’s go Colorado.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 12:44 pm
@Anonymous, if being a contiguous state was so important, then why leave out Kentucky?
Comment by Steve Rogers Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 12:47 pm
“With a flat state income tax rate lower than ours and much lower property taxes. I agree, let’s go Colorado.”
And maybe legalize marijuana and tax it? A few Dems have suggested it, but we all know what our governor has has to say about that…..
Comment by Galena Guy Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 1:19 pm
It is a dumb piece, not intelligent at all. Basically Rauner paid to advertise for other states. I have never heard of a governor doing that. It is malpractice on Rauner’s part.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 1:23 pm
@SteveRogers - Good point, but which of the 4 “Anonymous” commenters were you responding to?
Get a name and stick with it.
Comment by illini Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 1:24 pm
=== Minnesota isn’t contiguous to Illinois. ===
Neither is Michigan, but that didn’t stop Rauner from including the Michigan governor.
Comment by anon2 Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 1:31 pm
“With a flat tax rate lower than ours”
It wasn’t lower until this year, and it’s barely lower, at 4.63%. So that’s not it.
As far as property tax rates, Rauner wouldn’t accept compromise, such as a two-year freeze. Plus, our rates are higher because in part we don’t pay enough for education via the state and pay too high a proportion via property tax.
We’re hampered by the state constitution, but Rauner and other super-rich pay too low of a state income tax—even compared with most all of the neighboring red states.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 1:37 pm
“Which states are part of the Midwest” depends on who you ask:
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/hickey-map-midwest2.png?w=610&h=589
Comment by Free Set of Steak Knives Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:19 pm
==As far as property tax rates, Rauner wouldn’t accept compromise, such as a two-year freeze.==
Forget freeze. Colorado’s effective property tax rate is a 1/4 of what we pay. That is a huge difference no freeze would put a dent in. Imagine paying $1,600 more in state income taxes but paying $6,000 less in property taxes. That’s Colorado. I’ll take that trade.
==but Rauner and other super-rich pay too low of a state income tax==
Those same folks exist in Aspen, yet they don’t have the same issue.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:24 pm
Quid pro quo. Governor Rauner is a major contributor to the three GOP governors in his ad.
Comment by GA Watcher Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:27 pm
===a major contributor to the three===
Two.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:32 pm
“but paying $6,000 less in property taxes”
As far as I can tell, after a perfunctory search, Colorado has no law limiting local collective bargaining. If true then we take that form of union limitation out of the equation, since full bargaining rights don’t cause rates to be high in Colorado. Full collective bargaining rights also do not harm the economy, per Colorado.
Rauner caused massive harm to Illinois because he kept insisting on collective bargaining limits with property tax reform.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:47 pm
Minnesota, a state can have divided government and still function
Comment by papak Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 2:54 pm
@GRrandson of Man - You can have all the collective bargaining you want. Just give me $6,000 back in property taxes.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:02 pm
Minnesota is certainly not a much more liberal state than Illinois
Both legislative chambers are Republican and Hillary only beat Trump by 43,000 votes.
Libertarian Gary Johnson got 112,000 votes so 53% of Minnesota residents did not vote for her for President
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:04 pm
Look at a map
Illinois borders Michigan in Lake Michigan
Even it didn’t the Michigan border is 60 miles from Chicago city limits. It would be absurd to compare Michigan to Minnesota as it is a 6 hour drive
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:08 pm
Pierre, don’t be obtuse. NW Ill to SE Minn is less than 100 miles. But that’s irrelevant.
The big point is, this is an extremely effective digital ad. All the campaigns posting long, boring, complicated spots as if they will work on digital platforms should take note. They’re failing their clients and wasting money.
Comment by Reality Check Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:40 pm
=Just give me $6,000 back in property taxes.=
Only if you promise to take it with as you move to the nirvana that is Missouri.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:51 pm
Less than 100 miles from Illinois to Minnesota border?
Time for a reality check
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:52 pm
===Time for a reality check ===
OK, it’s 109 miles goo.gl/wHcHGk
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:57 pm
City Zen, I would be more than glad to what I could to help lower your property taxes, but it should be done more fairly than what this governor wants.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 4:58 pm
They’ve elected Ventura, Pawlenty and Dayton while we elected Ryan, Blagojevich, Quinn and Rauner.
They are 1/3rd the population and have only the Twin Cities as population centers.
Case closed.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 6:08 pm
Minnesota at the shortest point is 99.8 miles via roads, or 2 hours and 2 minutes, and about 80 miles “as the crow flies” which is certainly close enough to compare to Illinois. The only way it will take 6 hours is if you stop and buy Spotted Cow and fresh cheese curds everywhere along the way they are for sale.
http://goo.gl/9RA3iy
I do think it’s important to compare public policy in Illinois with states in the same region, contiguous or not. The idea that states are laboratories of democracy goes back to Justice Brandeis who was appointed by Woodrow Wilson. But it’s hard to learn from other states if you only include examples that support ones own ideology. It seems like a safe bet that the governor of Minnesota would’ve been in the ad if they were ideologically aligned with Rauner.
Comment by AC Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 9:25 pm
If you want to make the point that Minnesota is part of the tri state economic region of Chicago because some remote farm towns are a two hour drive away down two lane roads I would love to hear it.
Minneapolis is a 6 hour drive from Chicago with zero traffic. Rochester is 5 hours away.
No companies are locating in Minnesota so they can be close to the greater Chicago economy. Unfortunately they are locating in Indiana and Wisconsin for that precise reason.
Doubtlful you could argue easy driving distance for commerce. Business travelers would most certainly fly there.
https://alliancerd.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/OECD-Territorial-Review-Chicago-Synopsis-2012.pdf
Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Nov 2, 17 @ 11:10 pm
**Minneapolis is a 6 hour drive from Chicago with zero traffic. Rochester is 5 hours away.**
Oh… since we are only talking major cities distance from Chicago…
St Louis is 4 hrs and 17 minutes from Chicago.
Detroit is 4 hrs and 16 minutes from Chicago.
Indianapolis is 3 hrs and 1 minute from Chicago.
It ain’t like you can take a cab to any of those places.
Comment by SaulGoodman Friday, Nov 3, 17 @ 9:01 am
Suffering from geographic disadvantages compared with other states closer to the economic hub of the Midwest only makes Minnesota’s economic performance that much more impressive.
Comment by AC Friday, Nov 3, 17 @ 9:06 am