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Question of the day

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Illinois

* Election day is one year from today. Your Illinois predictions? Make sure to explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:13 pm

Comments

Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. Cold early morning temps in the 30s warm up to a high of 48% before sunset.

Joe Ricketts schedules the Cubs 2018 World Series victory parade for election day, hoping it causes low turnout.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:18 pm
Rauner claims the voting machines are hacked by Russians and refuses to accept the results

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:18 pm
Rauner in a very close race. — Think the Dem primary is going to get really ugly and whoever comes out of it is going to have issues.

Harold beats Quinn for AG — Quinn surprises in the primary by winning due to name recognition, but Quinn becomes a target for Rauner and his money.

SoS — Jesse White

GOP loses one to two seats in Congress due to issues with whatever comes after tax cuts.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:21 pm
A very wealthy man of unusual weight will win the election for governor.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:21 pm
Pam Althof will win a McHenry County Board seat making Jack Franks very nervous.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:24 pm
A guy praises Governor Rauner’s concession speech as the best he’s ever heard and the best in American history. Recalling Washington’s first inaugural, Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address, and King’s I Have a Dream, A guy tries to convince us that Rauner’s “so long, suckers” speech will go down in history as an American masterpiece.

“Brilliant from concept to execution,” will be a direct quote in his comment.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:26 pm
Six months after the election, Illinois will still be messed up.

Comment by Southside Markie Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:27 pm
Completely agree with OneMan - Rauner, Harold and Jesse White win. As to congressional races, Rodney Davis loses in an upset.

Comment by DarkHorse Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:29 pm
Local TV and radio executives will host a lavish cocktail party after the boon in advertising revenue.

Bruce and Diana will be in attendance, having nothing better to do.

Comment by Jocko Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:34 pm
Immediately prior to the election, Mendoza completes her audit of pending bills, identifying $51B previously unknown / unidentified bills pending. She wins in a landslide.

Frerichs retains the Treasurer’s seat.

Mike Madigan retains his House seat.

In a totally unexpected and historic upset, after voter discontent with both candidates, Lisa Madigan is reelected with a massive number of write-in votes.

After his loss of the Governor’s office, Rauner takes his checkbook off to Cave-in-Rock to plot his revenge.

And in a bit of irony, the House ends up evenly split, with the Democratic LT Governor holding the deciding vote.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:34 pm
At this point the only thing I am willing to predict is that the Dems maintain control of the Senate.

Comment by G'Kar Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:34 pm
A flawed Rauner beats a more flawed Pritzker; no change in the General Assembly ratios.

I think the Blago FBI wiretap with Pritzker asking to be named Treasurer is a very tough wall for him to scale. And I think Rauner’s financial help coupled with a Cook County-centered tax revolt helps to suppress Dem turnout and stops gains for Madigan and Cullerton in what should be a good year for them.

Comment by My Kind of Town Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:36 pm
Rauner wins by 20000 votes after clubbing jb in to submission over his contact with blago. Gonna remind everyone of what Kirk did to Alexi and the Broadway Bank

Comment by Regular democrat Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:36 pm
I just have this feeling that a year from now we will be right in the middle of a Trump Jr or Kushner indictment. I hesitate to make any bold predictions not because of how far out we are, but just how unpredictable the next year is.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:37 pm
If I had to put money it, I’d say we are going to see a Democratic year in Illinois - Pritzker, Stratton, Raoul, Frerichs, and Mendoza all win. Generic ballots, according to ABC News and RCP are ranging between Dems +11-14 for next year. If this Russia investigation goes any deeper and gets dragged out, that spells trouble for the ILGOP.

Comment by The Muse Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:39 pm
After Madigan announces his retirement to spend more time with “Lisa and the grandkids,” the Rauner campaign runs out of things to say to the public.

Comment by G'Kar Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:39 pm
Rauner loses to Ives who then loses to Pritzker;
White doesn’t run and Hastings becomes SOS;
Frerichs annihilates Orland Park Jim-Nobody Knows, Nobody Wants-Dodge;
Mendoza defeats Senger, easily
Harold beats Quinn
Dems keep majorities in both Chambers…
Fitzgerald beats Curran
Durkin beats his challenger
Toni Preckwinkle cruises to victory, with Boykin staying where he is forever
Acevedo beats Dart in a primary bid for Cook County Sheriff (and then beats GOP Izzo in the General)
Marwig finally wins
Duerson wins the open Stratton seat
Yingling wins…easily
Silverstein is upset by his primary challenger

mark it 8 dude….

Comment by TimeOut Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:41 pm
Fresh off the September 2018 awards, the newly Emmy winning “Dad’s Home State” does a live 2-hour episode entitled “The Votes Are In”

…

Bruce prepares three speeches, one if he loses, one if he wins, one if Evelyn falls during the day. Diana invites the hometown friends to watch the returns, finds out all her social service friends have different plans for the evening. Diana’s State Employee turns off notifications of new emails for both Bruce and Diana. We find “ck” enjoying her new country, Texas. Lance enjoys a cigar watching the returns from Hawaii via laptop, Goldberg writes a letter criticizing Bruce’s costume choices the final week of the campaign. Special Event. Live, 120 minutes, Comedy

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:41 pm
Frerichs,Mendoza, and White all keep their jobs, and Rauner loses his. Next year’s budget battle will matter a lot, but I just have to think that everyone will see how ineffectual and divisive he is and show him the door. Maybe wishful thinking, but it seems so obvious to me I can’t see him keeping his job. As for which of the Dems wins idk. Probably Pritzker; I personally see the wiretap tape where he says NO rather definitively, and repeatedly, to Blago’s attempt at getting a $50k bribe as a good thing, not the mark of death some people are trying to paint it as.

Comment by Perrid Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:47 pm
Rauner remains 45th in Governor popularity and still wins because of all his money.

Comment by Anon Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:49 pm
Pritzker defeats Rauner.

I’ve got a hunch that the A.G. race is going to be much closer than the Governor’s race. I just don’t see Kwame or any of the rest of the Dem. field as having much statewide appeal.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:55 pm
The Democratic Party fails to learn their lesson from Clinton. They nominate someone with high potential negatives, just because they have resources to build the party for them. Rauner wins a narrow victory after tying Pritzger to Blago and gun control with relentless ads.

Harold beats either Quinn or Raoul. She’s a great campaigner with a solid message.

Freirichs, Mendoza, and White crush their token opposition.

Comment by Aimtomisbehave Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:57 pm
Rauner wins, Jesse wins, Mendoza wins, Frierichs wins, and Harold beats Quinn earning the “luckiest politician ever” moniker. Pat Quinn starts circulating petitions to run for US Senate in 2020. Just can’t pass up a cycle.

Comment by DuPage Bard Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 2:59 pm
Keeping my remarks a bit more local -

Shimkus wins by his normal margin regardless of who theDem nominate,

Davis may prevail but it will be razor close, much like his first election.

Bost will not prevail.

And Jason Plummer will become my State Senator - Willy and I will have fun with this.

Comment by illini Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:00 pm
Rauner wins because Madigan. Pat Quinn wins Attorney General Dems sweep all constitutional offices
No changes in Congressional delegations that is no upsets getting rid of those people is impossible

Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:02 pm
Rauner loses to the Dem candidate. Because

1. HB 40. Pro-lifers are just a small percentage of the GOP, but Rauner’s victory in ‘14 was narrow enough that he couldn’t afford to lose any of them. They’ll teach Rauner a lesson.

2. Labor, having taught Quinn a lesson, will now teach Rauner a lesson.

Of course, a year is a long time, and pro-lifers, caving under ceaseless “Vote Republican or the baby gets it” propaganda, may once again vote as they’re told, but a unified labor vote will still sink Rauner.

Comment by Nick Name Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:08 pm
“Too far out it is.” Yoda

Had several excessively wordy posts deleted in 2006 and 2014 for talking about national trends, so let me say this: With all that is going on in DC, it is too soon to be making predictions.

Comment by Smitty Irving Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:09 pm
Pritzker/Kennedy leads in exit polling by a thin margin, leading OW and Lucky Pierre to clutter up every post all day arguing back and forth about turnout in Tazwell county. Erica Harold gets demolished by 16 after voters realize she has a perfect platform for appealing to Pat Buchanan supporters circa 1992, not Illinois voters in 2017. Durkin picks up only 1 seat, but is ecstatic after realizing he is now in charge of the ILGOP and doesn’t have to put up with Rauner’s lies and flip-flops anymore.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:11 pm
I can’t see Illinois Republicans recovering from the damage inflicted by Trump & Rauner, as much as Rauner has attempted to distance himself from Trump. I also don’t think voters are tired enough of self-funding billionaires to resist Pritzker. Pritzker will be our next governor.

Comment by Dome Gnome Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:14 pm
Gubernatorial Race: Pritzker 55% Rauner 45%

This race will return to the election results of Democrat vs. any Semi-popular GOP candidate. Blago beat Topinka with 49+ points with Topinka failing to break thru 40%. Rauner did not learn that Illinois didn’t turn away from Pat Quinn, but Quinn turned away from his constituencies. Pritzker (who’s numbers have actually not increased during the primary, but the undecideds have increased) will edge out an eventually solidified 2nd place nominee. My prediction is Biss over Kennedy. Biss will be appointed to a high cabinet position for his support.

AG Race: –CAUTION– Too Early to predict due to much uncertainty. More candidates may actually declare. That said.

Raoul 25%
Quinn 22%
Mariotti 12%
Fairley 10%
Rotering 08%

This race becomes a name recognition vs GOTV slugfest. With this many candidates, it will be about who can get on tv and who can create a semblance of a GOTV ground game in Chicago. Downstate may lean for Quinn due to his name recognition, but Raoul will (if he’s willing to do the work) consolidate the base, with help from the Party, in Chicago. Mariotti will also make a surprising showing because his name recognition will grow with his MSNBC and CNN appearances throughout the Russian investigation, but will fail to garner enough donations to put commercials on television to convince voters to pull his ballot. His detriment will also be night time television. Every time he goes on tv, there will be less time to build the statewide appeal he will need from a ground game.

SoS

Jesse White 60%

Whoever else runs 40%

Jesse wins because…he’s Jesse.

All other statewide offices up for reelection will be won by their office holders.

Congressional Races

GOP loses 2 seats in Illinois due to “bigly” unpopular President and Governor Deadbeat.

Comment by MG85 Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:22 pm
Everybody’s catch phrase the day after:

“Didn’t see that coming…”

Comment by a drop in Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:24 pm
My prediction is that by one year from now, everybody will be so fed up with campaign ads and falsehoods that we will have a record LOW turnout. I can only hope that it will still result in JB Pritzker’s election as Governor. (Chris Kennedy seems like a decent guy, but he doesn’t have any momentum.)

Comment by Christopher Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:39 pm
The HGOP will pick up 2 seats, the SGOP will pick up 1 seat as “Madigan” in the micro districts will be too much for Dems to overcome, even with Trump headwinds.

The AG race will be Cross/Frerichs all over again. This time, it will be DuPage that has the outstanding votes and when they’re counted, the Dem nominee beats Harold and her “too conservative” exit polling negatives.

White, Mendoza, Frerichs win, their pluralities will also be I this order. Downstate pluralities against statewide Dems are consistent between the three, showing ticket-splitting down the ballot and staying Dem.

…

I think that’s all the races….

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:40 pm
With the Trump administration scandals with resignations and prosecutions over the summer, the Republican party is in great disarray. Disheartened Republican voters stay home at the midterms, with Democrats making significant gains. Pritzker wins and Democrats win the statewide offices, except for Attorney General. Democrats gain seats in both houses.

Comment by Aldyth Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:44 pm
The governor’s race will break the Illinois spending record of $112M set by Rauner/Quinn in 2014, but not the national record of $280M set by Brown/Whitman in CA in 2010.

They’ll reach full saturation media before they hit $200M.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 3:57 pm
Rauner loses. Madigan is happy and announces his retirement. Our state improves immediately.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 4:12 pm
Does anybody doubt that the two nominees will be Rauner and J.B.?

It seems that the only question on that point is whether either will be significantly weakened by a primary.

Comment by Gooner Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 4:32 pm
Someone invents a device that will plug into the USB port on all modern televisions that detects political adds and blocks them and shows video or pictures of the device purchasers choosing instead. Sales start out in Illinois but soon go nationwide. The inventor has a net worth exceeding Rauner and Pritzker combined by election day next year.

Comment by Retired Already Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 4:58 pm
The two most unpopular politicians in the state both lose: Rauner gets beat and Madigan loses 2 net seats.

Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 5:05 pm
Pritzker wins. Three months later raise income tax to 6.75% and signs off on potential constitutional amendment taXing retirement income. Same thing Rauner would do.

Comment by blue dog dem Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 5:56 pm
I predict a Democratic clean sweep of state offices. Pritzker, Raoul and White lead the way. Illinois is sick and tired of mopey Rauner.

Comment by DuPage Dave Monday, Nov 6, 17 @ 7:09 pm
==A guy praises Governor Rauner’s concession speech as the best he’s ever heard and the best in American history==

Only if it’s from his video crew and not live.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Nov 7, 17 @ 8:48 am
Misery for Illinois State employees.

Comment by RIJ Tuesday, Nov 7, 17 @ 10:32 am