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Rauner to air entire Blagojevich/Pritzker audio this weekend

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* Press release…

Today, Citizens for Rauner is launching an extended television ad featuring all 11 minutes of the FBI wiretap between JB Pritzker and disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich. It will air in every major media market in Illinois on Saturday, January 20 and Sunday, January 21.

It is in response to JB Pritzker’s claim that last week’s ad featuring his conversation with Blagojevich, in which his insider dealings were exposed, was “selectively edited.” That ad highlighted 60 unedited seconds taken straight from the Chicago Tribune reporting of the FBI wiretaps.

JB Pritzker cannot simply dismiss his conversations with a convicted former governor in which he lobbied for his own appointment to statewide political office and encouraged him to engage in a quid pro quo — especially in light of their well-documented, decades-long, cozy political friendship. JB Pritzker is part of the corruption and cronyism that has plagued Illinois for decades. The people of Illinois deserve better.

* The intro is really long, but here you go…

* Mark Brown…

As far as the Blagojevich tape making Pritzker unelectable, the evidence would indicate even Rauner doesn’t necessarily believe so.

If he did, why would he be trying so hard to blow up Pritzker’s candidacy at this early stage before Pritzker is even the Democratic nominee?

At the very least, though, the recording is a significant problem for Pritzker, one that he keeps trying to shrug off in the affable style that is nearly as responsible for his popularity with Democratic insiders as his very deep pockets.

In an otherwise strong presentation to the Sun-Times’ Editorial Board, Pritzker stuck to his usual talking points when asked about his relationship with Blagojevich.

“Gov. Blagojevich broke the trust with the people of the state of Illinois, and he’s in prison where he belongs,” Pritzker said. “Sadly, we have a government and once again a governor that’s focused on themselves and not on doing what’s right for the people of the state of Illinois. I’m proud about doing public service. Any conversations I had were about doing public service, and any suggestion by Gov. Blagojevich of any contribution I rebuffed.” […]

My own take is that it’s less damning in its entirety than portrayed, though hardly reassuring.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:22 am

Comments

If Rauner wanted to face Pritzker, he would wait until after the primary to begin this assault. His decision to move now is telling.

Comment by slow down Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:26 am
“If he did, why would he be trying so hard to blow up Pritzker’s candidacy at this early stage before Pritzker is even the Democratic nominee?”

Answer: Because he can.

Comment by allknowingmasterofracoondom Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:26 am
This reminds me of Jeb Bush spending millions to mail devices that automatically started playing a 15 min documentary about him. I’m guessing most were in the trash by the 1 min mark.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:29 am
By the end of the campaign you won’t hear JB’s name without thinking of Blago and toilets. It won’t necessarily derail the JB train, but he is going to have baggage regardless of the outcome. I guess this is the best we can do.

Comment by SSL Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:29 am
“He that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas”

Comment by Texas Red Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:32 am
At this point, IF Pritzker is elected governor, he will be pretty unpopular and seen as the lesser of two evils by voters. No question, his negatives will only go up from here, and the toilets sure won’t help.

Comment by People Over Parties Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:37 am
If Rauner wanted to face Pritzker, he would wait until after the primary to begin this assault. His decision to move now is telling.

I think it is Pritzker’s to lose at this point and the other two don’t have the money to take any blows at Pritzker you might as well start working on moving the needle on Prizker’s negatives now.

To paraphrase and expand on allknowingmasterofracoondom, he can and what is the downside for him to do so?

Heck if he wants anyone in the Dem primary he would want Biss IMHO.

Comment by OneMan Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:37 am
That Rauner’s resorting to this tells me that the initial response to the first ad was not what he wanted.

We’ll see how many people sit through a 15 minute commercial airing on a weekend. Reminds me of Ross Perot’s infomercials.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:38 am
They’re going to run an 11-minute version on TV? And who do they expect to sit through all 11 minutes? Sorry, the public is likely to be more interested in the latest (fictional) episode of “Scandal,” tonight on ABC.

Comment by Christopher Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:39 am
==By the end of the campaign you won’t hear JB’s name without thinking of Blago and toilets.==

Taxes, Blago, Toilets. I see a TBT tie-in.

Too bad Bruce won’t be able to supplement that message with actual accomplishments.

Comment by City Zen Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:39 am
If the election is a referendum on Rauner, he doesn’t stand a chance. His only chance at winning is to make Pritzker unelectable.

Blago or no Blago, I don’t see it happening.
Not in this blue state, in this political environment.

Comment by slow down Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:41 am
at what time of day do the networks have space for an 11-minute ad? is this a press pop for some 2 a.m. infomercial pre-emption?

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:45 am
==I don’t see it happening.==

Probably depends on if anything else is out there, but certainly the first week of the ad campaign, with Greitens, Duke, and legalizing marijuana dominating the conversation, isn’t a good sign for Rauner.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:45 am
Len Goodman is spinning this into a “sunlight” issue- Letter to Editor in Sun Times

https://tinyurl.com/y792g2r8

“Now a government lawyer or FBI agent apparently has leaked a sealed tape from the Blagojevich trial to assist the re-election campaign of Gov. Bruce Rauner.”

That’s spin that JB may be able to keep going- how did the Rauner Campaign obtain this recording, and from whom?

And, admitting this may be tinfoil hat territory, Rauner better hope that there was no crossover with the departure of Murashko and the obtaining of the tape(s)-

https://tinyurl.com/yaejjg6j

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:46 am
It seems bad in a sense because these calls were coming only a short time before Blagojevich was arrested. It makes you question Pritzker’s judgment.
I mean the writing was on the wall.

Comment by Practical Politics Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:47 am
So how much is a 2 day, statewide TV buy for an 11 minute ad? How many times a day does it run? Who the heck would listen?

Comment by Spliff Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:47 am
It’s not good for JB, but there’s nothing fatal in the tape. I find it fascinating, but the average voter doesn’t have as much interest in inside politics as people on this site.

Comment by anon2 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 9:52 am
I tend to avoid ads in general when they come on tv particularly political ones. A person that would sit through an 11 minute ad on JB Pritzker already has a strong opinion. The ad won’t change that opinion it will only reinforce it.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:00 am
1) How many people will watch an 11-14 minutes of Blago?

Why answer the “play the whole tape” beating drum when continually going after Pritzker in :30 or :60 second Ads makes more of an impression.

What are people going to say… “did you hear at the 7:25 mark?”

Here’s what real in this point… Chance The Rapper talking for 11-14 minutes on the failures of Rauner has more impact, including nationally, than this stunt.

It’s lije the Madigan Documentary. Ok, you aired it, now what?

2) Where is the counter to this to get support?

Rauner is still under water, the worst Republican governor in America, and he has alienated social service providers avd clients, Labor, higher education… Pritzker is in a tape 9 years old, the last three years Rauner devastated the state, and they’re not mutually exclusive.

3) Pritzker Crew could say this…

“Be it 11 seconds or 11 minutes, at no time was J.B. a witness, under investigation and even answered FBI questions which led to the tape never seeing daylight until it was released, and that’s now being investigated. Airing a tape currently being investigated is how a failed governor hides his lack of accomplishments”

That’s it

4) David Duke and Donald Trump

Just this week, Bruce Rauner couldn’t even agree in real time David Duke is a racist. Just this week, Bruce Rauner is confused to who Donald Trump is, and what he (Rauner) stands for. Governors know racist quite quick and call them out, goverors also know when a President is hurting America (Gov. Kasich knows), so if Rauner wants to play 9 year old possibly illegally released tapes… and not worry what is happening to people now… that’s a choice too.

5) Quinn won. Munger lost. Mendoza won.

Proxy battles or campaigns seem to hurt Rauner more, and while Quinn wasn’t Rod’s choice or Rod’s person or anything Rod, Dems still came home to Quinn. Dems also stayed home enough to retire Leslie Munger.

What Dem(s) is/are going to choose Rauner over Blago?

Labor? Teachers?

Run the tapes. Rauner is still a choice… a choice not polling at all well.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:00 am
I listened to the tapes and nothing is there. This is Rauner grasping at straws.

Comment by Real Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:05 am
Does this remind anyone of Trump’s stunt dragging out the Clinton accusers before the debate?

This guy is looking more and more like the Donald every day.

Comment by Boone's is Back Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:09 am
If no one will listen to the full tape, as some are suggesting, then if the clips are still aired in 30 or 60-second portions (which I’m sure they will be), won’t the affect be just as harmful? It will be head either way.

Comment by People Over Parties Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:13 am
11 minute spot, 10 months before the general election? Unusual and ambitious, to say the least. When you’ve got money to burn….

The Rauner crew is aware that we’re well into the remote control era? I don’t see how this passes the clicker test.

Maybe it would be wiser to re-release in theaters the IPI Madigan movie and run this as an opening attraction.

I bet the combo would would make for even bigger boffo box office than the first run.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:14 am
I heard the original. I don’t like extended dance mixes.

Can’t see this changing many minds. At least not in the general.

Comment by Henry Francis Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:15 am
Maybe the point isn’t to have people watch and listen to an 11 minute tape but to simply make them aware of its existence and draw their own conclusions on what’s on it.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:18 am
Overkill by Rauner. People have short memories and little patience for long political ads.

Comment by Generic Drone Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:18 am
==Why answer the “play the whole tape” beating drum when continually going after Pritzker in :30 or :60 second Ads makes more of an impression.==

Because Rauner is chasing it. He’s not controlling the terms of the debate. I’m not sure JB is, either, but he’s closer, with the way he pivoted right from the first Blago ad back to jobs, health care, etc. Rauner’s not making him chase pitches, but now Rauner’s chasing some himself.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:19 am
I am wondering aloud…

===“That particular tape was never played at trial,” Joe Fitzpatrick, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office confirmed. “We are working on it also—we want to know who gave it out.”===

… you wanna run a whole tape that the US Attorney’s Office is also wondering aloud how it got released?

That’s probably the most odd thing I find in this.

“Meh, it’s the US Attorney’s Office. Let’s just air it”

Whew.

Take the snippets, why poke your finger in the USA’s eye?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:20 am
==Maybe the point isn’t to have people watch and listen to an 11 minute tape but to simply make them aware of its existence and draw their own conclusions on what’s on it.==

But you’d think the original ad would’ve done that.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:21 am
The FBI, found nothing worthy of prosecution or even charges. Rauner is trying to manufacture a controversy. If the FBI is good with it so am I. I won’t be listening. I consider this a nonissue. If feels a little like Rauner is in panic/desperation mode already

Comment by Retired Educator Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:25 am
And this convinces me to vote for Rauner…how?

Comment by Skeptic Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:31 am
===But you’d think the original ad would’ve done that.===

… and that’s really the point, and even the chasing, which I agree that Pritzker’s Crew had a response and a half at the ready, but still had to in a quote after the tape came out “again” had to lay down a marker I thought shoulda been down weeks ago… but I digress.

Releasing like this, in its entirety, to reinforce something, which was nothing to the US Attorney… ok, run the tapes, as the USA’s spokesperson seems as confused as anyone how they got released.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:32 am
OW- I’ve been wondering that since the original ad came out. This could really blow up in Rauner’s face if his campaign or staffers are pulled in for questioning on how they obtained the tape copy. Saying you got it from the Trib is not going to cut it with the US Attorney’s Office. JB may not have been questioned over these tapes, but Rauner may well be. Wouldn’t that be a kicker;)

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:34 am
–Blago or no Blago, I don’t see it happening.
Not in this blue state, in this political environment.–

Slow Down: Bingo. Rauner is desperate. He can only try and trash Pritzker because he has no accomplishments to fall back on. It won’t be nearly enough though because Illinois wants change and deserves change.

Comment by Illinois Resident Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:34 am
I would love to know which Trump ally at the FBI leaked the tape to Rauner and whether that’s a crime. That said I don’t think this will have much if any impact. Rauner will be swept away in the national wave that is coming. The question is just how large the double digit margin will be.

Comment by Texian Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:36 am
==… you wanna run a whole tape that the US Attorney’s Office is also wondering aloud how it got released?

That’s probably the most odd thing I find in this.==

Yeah, waving a red flag in front of USAO’s horns seems like a weird idea to me, but I assume that even under the Trump administration they are extremely hesitant to wade into direct campaign issues.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:38 am
Rauner knows few people will listen to much of the 11 minutes. Thats not the purpose. The purpose is to get print and electronic media talking about it. This is rauner attempting to show blago and pritzker dancing the polka. He has an opening until we shift all attention to the budget.

Comment by Langhorne Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:40 am
The first nearly two minutes is a slow…monotone…explanation…of…what…you…will…sorry, I nodded off there. Listening to tape now.

Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:40 am
Who is taking credit for this, “I’m Bruce Rauner and I approve this illegal message”

Comment by Rabid Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:45 am
Eleven minute political commercials are what the remote control was invented for. Right now I automatically mute all commercials until the program comes back on.

As other posters have asked, where, in a network schedule, do you have an 11-minute chunk to air this screed?

The only people who will watch this entire thing are Raunerbots who are voting for him anyway.

Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:50 am
Ultimately it boils down to policy. What is Rauner actually doing or accomplishing? Lower taxes like Kansas? How did that work out? Pritzker wants progressive ideas like cannabis legalization, progressive income tax, etc. These things will never happen with Rauner in office. Our state needs to move forward on a better path.

Comment by Illinois Resident Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:52 am
I’m confused because he says it’s unedited but it’s clearly edited. Also, not a lot of people are going to listen. And if they do, they’ll find two guys talking about politics and JB rebuffing every suggestion about contributions. And on the treasurer thing, 2009 was the midst of an economic collapse. JB suggested it would make sense to have a treasurer with a financial background. What an outrageous suggestion.

I completely agree with Mark Brown that it’s less damning in its entirety so I don’t know what he’s trying to achieve.

Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 10:58 am
Is this the AFC championship halftime show. This playing on Netflix. Who’s gonna watch this on a Sat afternoon or Sun morning?

Comment by Baloneymous Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:00 am
Streator Curmudgeon- I’m betting Sinclair will air this on a 6:30 pm spot on WICS and WICD, and use the rest of the time as “political analysis” with talking heads and tape of the Blago hearings/investigation. Heck, Rauner might even buy additional 30-60 second spots as “commercials” between the “commercial”.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:00 am
===This could really blow up in Rauner’s face if his campaign or staffers are pulled in for questioning on how they obtained the tape copy.===

Big “if”… dunno if the USAO will go there, but they might.

===Saying you got it from the Trib is not going to cut it with the US Attorney’s Office.===

Speculative.

The USAO never ask questions at that level of investigating unless they know the answers.

Right now, I find fascinating a campaign will air an entire tape the USA is also wondering aloud how it got released.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:03 am
“Maybe the point isn’t to have people watch and listen to an 11 minute tape but to simply make them aware of its existence and draw their own conclusions on what’s on it.”

Pretty sure everyone is aware of its existence. Besides, that would be a very big waste of money. If that’s all they wanted, they would just run it in Springfield - way cheaper. No, they think this is a kill shot. I think they’re mistaken.

Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:05 am
The tape is disqualifying. Anyone can see that, and all the JB volunteers posting anonymous comments here blaming imaginary FBI leakers or the “deep state” are just as delirious as Trump himself. Own it. Your candidate is corrupt. The original ad is eye-popping. People who don’t normally care about politics are shocked. They’re paying attention for the first time this campaign and their first impression will last the longest. This is damaging, and all the excuses posted here make that obvious. Nominate someone else or lose in November. JB can’t win.

Comment by Forgetting Robert Marshall Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:07 am
==No, they think this is a kill shot.==

I don’t think that’s the case, either. I think they’re desperate. We know that before Christmas a consensus of polls had Rauner down double digits. That was *before* Quincy. Rauner may have needed to do something big just to get back into this thing. He can do the kill shot later.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:13 am
Nothing sandwiche, this is locker room talk. Hmmm who used those phrases

Comment by STOPH Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:16 am
==Hmmm who used those phrases==

Not JB, so not sure what your point is.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:20 am
How does this work? 11 minutes is the total commercial time for the 10 o’clock news, so is he going to break it up and air it in every commercial break?

Is he buying an infomercial Ross Perot style?

How do you buy 11 minutes of ad time? What would the station do with the other 19 minutes?

Comment by Grand Avenue Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:22 am
==The original ad is eye-popping.==

And yet…Rauner is now running *this* one. He would not, were the first one having the profound effect you’re describing.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:24 am
I don’t think Rauner releasing this now necessarily means he is on the defensive. Would he lose today in a head to head match up against Pritzker? Probably. But as Rich mentioned the other day, the other Dems don’t have the money to go after JB, and he’s been going after Rauner for months now. Calendar changed, it’s now an election year for what will be one of the most expensive elections in U.S. history, seems about the right time to start spending down the $55 mil.

“Viewer discretion is advised” lol

Comment by Lunchbox Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:27 am
Why is govenor transparency exposing the FBI for not prosecuting JB, citizens arrest

Comment by Rabid Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:27 am
—The tape is disqualifying. Anyone can see that, and all the JB volunteers posting anonymous comments here blaming imaginary FBI leakers or the “deep state” are just as delirious as Trump himself.—

The tape means nothing. It will come down to what side you are on. This tape will not change that. Rauner is desperate and he should be because he is going to lose.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:28 am
Oh boy…

===The tape is disqualifying.===

How so? No charges, nothing that was on the tape warrented anything but a Q & A by the FBI which led to the tape never to be used in court, or Pritzker as a witness, deposed, or defendant. Yikes.

===Anyone can see that===

… including the USAO, which thought so little of it, they never used it in any of the trials. You want it disqualifying but that’s up to voters who never shoulda heard the tape, but will because of a leak… and let’s visit this…

===…and all the JB volunteers posting anonymous comments here…===

I’m not a J.B. volunteer, and I’m pretty doggone sure they’re glad I’m nowhere near them.

===…blaming imaginary FBI leakers or the “deep state” are just as delirious as Trump himself..===

…’cept for that pesky USAO Spokesman quote wondering aloud about the leak.

If I ignore that… LOL

===Your candidate is corrupt.===

If you say it enough kinda hope there with the tape… ok, lol

===The original ad is eye-popping. People who don’t normally care about politics are shocked.===

Really? How many people you speaking for?

If you believe even 16% of your comment, you’d want Pritzker to run and lose.

The deep state silliness gave you away, bud.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:32 am
==seems about the right time to start spending down the $55 mil==

Start? Rauner’s been on the air for months now. We had the duct tape ad, the school funding ad, the “Madigan is Robot” ad, the Greitens ad (which I guess could also be called a duct tape ad). If he’s still trailing JB- and I believe you that he is- then all those previous ads weren’t working. Maybe that’s not “desperate” but it’s clearly resorting to Plan D or E, and your brow gets a little sweaty when you hit that point.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:32 am
As to Rauner’s strategy - he is in a bad spot & his General Election polling shows that.

I think his only hope of winning is facing a brutally bloodied Pritzker in November. I don’t think he can tar & feather Kennedy or Biss enough to overcome his negatives.

Since Pritzker needs to be bloodied, he is starting to attack him heavy now, and he is taking a risk that he might dirty up Pritzker so much that Kennedy or Biss wins the primary.

But when you are as upside down as Rauner is, you have to take risks like this. It’s like a football team taking a late onside kick - you don’t want to be in that position, but if you are it’s the only thing you can do to even have a shot of winning.

Comment by Grand Avenue Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:33 am
Maybe the tape contains nothing that is actually illegal. However, it has real impact. Why spend the money to run this if the 60 second spot was not having an impact? Also, the lack of public polling in a contested primary to take on the most vulnerable governor in the country also says to me JB is still trailing Kennedy or it is much closer than he would like.

Comment by Reaganing Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:34 am
===Also, the lack of public polling in a contested primary to take on the most vulnerable governor in the country also says to me JB is still trailing Kennedy or it is much closer than he would like.===

Last public poll had Pritzker up by a healthy double-digit lead.

What makes you think the numbers have changed?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:36 am
@Forgetting Robert Marshall

Oh really? If the tape was so disqualifying don’t think Rauner would be saving it until after the primary?

Comment by Real Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:39 am
—Since Pritzker needs to be bloodied, he is starting to attack him heavy now, and he is taking a risk that he might dirty up Pritzker so much that Kennedy or Biss wins the primary.—

Kennedy or Biss don’t have a chance at beating Pritzker, IMO. Rauner is going after Pritzker because he will soon be facing him the the GE. And Pritzker can match the money that Rauner has. Rauner is fighting a losing battle. And I am enjoying every minute of it. Ultimately it comes down to policy and the direction you want our state to go.

Comment by Illinois Resident Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:40 am
The Gentleman from Oswego can sit here and deny all the live-long-day that this tape means anything. But I suspect that must mean he doesn’t talk to too many regular people outside of this blog. And I predict he’ll have another heaping mouthful of crow to apologize for come November should JB prevail in March.

Comment by Jack Kemp Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:42 am
===The Gentleman from Oswego can sit here and deny all the live-long-day that this tape means anything===

No, I’ve asked how are they disqualifying, how do they help Rauner when Rauner needs to get voters, or try to suppress voters and the tapes do neither to rehabilitate Rauner, and question the use of 11-14 minutes of time, time people may not be willing to give… but you live in your world, it seems more fun.

===But I suspect that must mean he doesn’t talk to too many regular people outside of this blog.===

People in Labor, Union workers who usually vote Republican, or social service administrators, or families sending their kids out of state because of funding and scholarships… really other than the guy who sells me my Slim Jim’s and Slurpees… not too many people… lol

===And I predict he’ll have another heaping mouthful of crow to apologize for come November should JB prevail in March.===

Apologize for what?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:49 am
==Why spend the money to run this if the 60 second spot was not having an impact?==

Precisely because it was not having the desired impact.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 11:58 am
“Also, the lack of public polling in a contested primary to take on the most vulnerable governor in the country also says to me JB is still trailing Kennedy or it is much closer than he would like.”

Wishing doesn’t make it true. I recently saw a Cook County poll that showed Pritzker with a healthy double digit lead (bigger than the previous poll). Since he’s the only one on downstate, I suspect his lead is bigger there. Since there’s no public data, if I had to guess, I’d say Pritzker has expanded his lead. The only real mystery is whether Biss has finally broken single digits now that he’s been on the air.

Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:04 pm
May gain as much support for JB as anything else.

Comment by d.p.gumby Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:06 pm
==Also, the lack of public polling in a contested primary to take on the most vulnerable governor in the country also says to me JB is still trailing Kennedy or it is much closer than he would like.==

I dunno about that; I think if polling showed Kennedy still in the lead he’d be e-mailing it to every donor in Illinois right now.

OTOH, I think these two ads show that Rauner thinks JB’s got it all but sewn up.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:07 pm
–”Also, the lack of public polling in a contested primary to take on the most vulnerable governor in the country also says to me JB is still trailing Kennedy…–

Huh? Rich’s poll at the end of October had Pritzker up 24 points. That’s the opposite of trailing.

https://capitolfax.com/2017/10/23/poll-pritzker-leads-kennedy-and-biss-39-15-6/

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:08 pm
==May gain as much support for JB as anything else.==

No. It’s going to hurt him. But when polls gave him a double digit lead before Quincy, it may not be a death blow.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:10 pm
===May gain as much support for JB as anything else.===

The Commander Jo Galloway prism.

It’s one thing to weigh and measure attack ads or points of attack and weaknesses… and the impact of all, and understanding what can or can’t be overcome and how…

… it’s another to see things constantly as sunshine and lollipops.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:16 pm
–He would not, were the first one having the profound effect–

Arsenal, I beg to differ. I’ve been hearing a lot about this ad from friends and family who don’t otherwise care much about politics. Sure, it’s anecdotal. But my sense is that this first ad is working. It’s certainly a lot more interesting than JB’s vanilla ads over elevator music dressing up his for-profit scheme to feed people as some sort of altruism.

And to your point, do you really think they would waste money on such a big ad if they thought the first one didn’t catch fire? When they see something spark, they pour gas on it and watch what burns. You don’t throw this kind of money at something if the polling comes back “Meh.”

Comment by Anon312 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 12:37 pm
Only we insiders pay much attention to whether there is any “there” there.

Most voters won’t retain any specific details, but will link three ideas: Pritzker, Blago, and FBI. That can hurt. It will be reinforced until folks are sick of it — especially if Rauner has unlimited funds.

Comment by walker Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 1:32 pm
Arsenal, I beg to differ. I’ve been hearing a lot about this ad from friends and family who don’t otherwise care much about politics.

-so what have your family and friends been saying about what’s contained on the tapes? Like what’s so bad in them?

Comment by Real Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 1:33 pm
What Walker said. It sticks with people. It’s easy to understand. Looks and smells like insider pay to play politics. Blago = bad. Maybe you can say those kinds of folks won’t vote in a primary. Fair point, I guess. But people who are downplaying the damage of this ad are probably just uncomfortable having a conversation about the content of JBs character. People vote against what they despise just as much as they vote for something they love these days, and this gives voters a lot to despise in JB.

Comment by Anon312 Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 1:42 pm
===People vote against what they despise just as much as they vote for something they love these days,…===

Rauner is polling 30/55 approval-disapproval, in a state Clinton won by 17 points and Mendoza won being outspent, in the Trump midterm.

The tape is damaging, but not aiding Rauner, making him less than who he is, or doesn’t remove Trump from the midterm.

Bruce Rauner as a failed governor, the worst Republican governor in America still holds. This doesn’t absolve Rauner for the past three years, but it does try to make voters think.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 1:51 pm
For Rauner it’s finger pointing at Madigan/Blago/Pritzker. Where is the long list of accomplishments that show why Rauner deserves re-election.

Comment by zatoichi Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 2:06 pm
==It’s certainly a lot more interesting than JB’s vanilla ads over elevator music dressing up his for-profit scheme to feed people as some sort of altruism.==

Not exactly convincing me of your ability to impartially assess the state of play, there, Nameless Numbers.

==do you really think they would waste money on such a big ad if they thought the first one didn’t catch fire?==

Absolutely. The Blago tape is still the best piece of oppo on JB, so if the first ad with it didn’t do what you wanted it to do, try a different one. And we have a lot of data points on advertising for statewide races, we know that 15 minute commercials are…let’s call it “unique”. And given everything else we know about this race- internal polls from late last year, Rauner’s approval ratings, the general mood of the country and partisan lean of the state- yes, I’m quite confident in saying that Rauner is not making such a unique move from a position of strength.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 2:08 pm
Maybe someone here can answer questions about the tapes…
1. If the tapes belong to the FBI and were subsequently sealed by the Federal Court; Isn’t it a crime acquire and then release them and/or make use of them for political gain?
2. Can anyone speculate as to why the recordings haven’t been seized if they were, in fact, illegally acquired & possession of the tapes is not authorized by the court?

Comment by Happy Retiree Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 2:10 pm
Let the sunshine
Let the sunshine in
The sunshine in…

Those are iconic lyrics from a very popular song that urged people to realize that light reveals truth. Applicable now as then, in so many ways.

Yeah, there is other light to be shined on other candidates to be sure. But these Blago-JB tapes let the bright sunlight in on these two specific men and it ain’t pretty.

Comment by Responsa Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 2:55 pm
I wonder if the assumption in releasing the whole thing is precisely that no one is going to sit through 11 minutes of pretty inconclusive innuendo.

Maybe the point is just to drive home that a) Pritzker is tied to Blago and b) Pritzker was investigated by the FBI because of it. Most people aren’t gonna sit through the whole thing and conclude that the connections are tenuous and that Pritzker didn’t really do anything disqualifying. There just going to make that association and move on.

Pritzker’s biggest issue was always going to be that he’s an ultra-wealthy political insider. Many people don’t really care about that, or are willing to look past it because of policy, but this certainly adds to that narrative. I don’t think there’s anything here that sinks JB, but it’s not nothing either.

Comment by Actual Red Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 3:05 pm
Pritzker wants voters to think he’s an outsider, a do-gooder who’s just doing this to help them. This puts in voters minds that he’s just another part of the Blago clan, in it for himself, and will be more of the same. It’s about framing the candidate.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 3:22 pm
==Maybe the point is just to drive home that a) Pritzker is tied to Blago and b) Pritzker was investigated by the FBI because of it.==

Certainly, with the caveat that the second part doesn’t appear to be true (but Rauner’s OK if you get that impression). But the first ad already did that. Adding this one is bizarre.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 3:33 pm
This attack will not move the needle much if at all. Democrats are still going to vote Democrat. Republicans are still going to vote Republican. Final Result - Democrats win (Pritzker).

Comment by Illinois Resident Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 3:40 pm
Bruce I know what I get with you nothing . So the ad doesn’t matter . I’m ready to take my chances on JB . I’ve seen what you will do if reelected NOTHING .

Comment by Bruce Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 5:41 pm
This move tells me two things: 1. The Rauner campaign wants to tighten things up for Pritzker in the primary and make him spend even more $$, and 2. They have a lot more dirt that they can dump on him later…this is just the beginning. Get ready for the ugliest general election any of us have ever experienced.

Comment by Dave W Thursday, Jan 18, 18 @ 6:23 pm
Taunting the FBI and justice system for personal gain, nothing you can do about it

Comment by Rabid Friday, Jan 19, 18 @ 8:25 am