TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: January 23, 2018
RE: Recent Survey among Illinois 4th CD Democratic Primary Voters
From January 18 to 21, 2018, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a representative sample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the 4th CD. This survey, which has a margin of error of ±5 percentage points, was fully representative of the 4th CD’s geographic and ethnic demographics, and included cell phone interviews as well as a significant proportion of Spanish-language interviews. The following presents the survey’s key findings:
Chuy Garcia enters the race to succeed incumbent Luis Gutierrez with exceptionally high name recognition and an extremely favorable image that is positive by better than a nine-to-one ratio:
Mr. Garcia’s 93% name recognition puts him on par with Congressman Gutierrez (the rare instance where a non-incumbent candidate has the same name ID as the long-time incumbent), and he is significantly better known than his primary opponents. With the primary election less than two months away, Mr. Garcia’s almost-universal name recognition is an important advantage in a district contained in the expensive Chicago media market.
Mr. Garcia is able to translate his strong name recognition and popularity into a dominating position in the initial trial heat for Congress, already garnering three- fifths of the vote, with NONE of his opponents able to break double digits.
Several key survey results affirm Chuy Garcia’s strong standing and the likelihood that he is headed for an overwhelming victory in March.
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o First, Mr. Garcia has strong support among white voters (48% Garcia, 9% Sol Flores) and overwhelming support among Hispanic voters (70% Garcia, 7% Proco Joe Moreno).
o Second, sufficient evidence suggests that Mr. Garcia has as good a chance as any of the other candidates to win undecided voters, which is notable because Chuy already has well over a majority of support. His ratings among undecided voters is positive by better than two to one, with nearly 70% of undecided voters finding his background appealing after they hear pro-Garcia information.
o Finally, Mr. Garcia maintains a better than four-to-one lead in the trial heat (45% Garcia, 11% Proco Joe Moreno) after we read several negative criticisms of Mr. Garcia that could be communicated in this campaign. Again, Chuy Garcia leads by 45% to 11% even after we read critical information about him with NOTHING else read to voters (i.e., NO pro-Garcia OR negatives against his opponents). In other words, if the Garcia campaign does NOTHING and allows his opponents to criticize him without any let-up from now until election day (NEITHER scenario is remotely likely), Mr. Garcia would STILL win this race.
In summary, Chuy Garcia’s high name recognition AND popularity among white and Hispanic voters puts him in a dominating position in the primary election with little “oxygen” for any of his primary opponents. Our survey data makes clear that 4th CD Democrats strongly believe that Chuy Garcia is the best person to succeed Congressman Gutierrez.
And, according to this story in the Trib a couple of days ago, Chuy should even get Joe Walsh’s vote: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chicagoinc/ct-met-walsh-versus-chuy-0123-chicago-inc-20180123-story.html
Comment by JoanP Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 9:56 am
I wonder how this positive recognition and support would have translated, had Chuy decided to try again for Mayor?
Comment by Christopher Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 10:06 am
Wow, these border on Jesse White type poll numbers. Good for Chuy.
Comment by A guy Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:23 am
As long as Ramirez Rosa gets blown away I’m happy.
Personally Proco Joe is my favorite.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:29 am
==I wonder how this positive recognition and support would have translated, had Chuy decided to try again for Mayor?==
Maybe well, but remember that it was an old machine tactic to send annoyances to Washington.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:33 am
Chuy’s name recognition and popularity are largely because of his effective campaign for Mayor in which his only serious opponent was Rahm. Chuy might have had more difficulty this year with strong Black and female candidates entering the race. (As will Rahm.)
Comment by PigsFly Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:39 am
Moreno will have earned this humbling
Comment by Randy Jackson Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:44 am
@Ron
RR dropped out and endorsed Chuy a few weeks ago
Comment by Randy Jackson Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:45 am
Technical beef here, but I hate polls that do not include the names of all the candidates.
Why say other when you could say Richard Gonzalez and Raymond Lopez?
This distorts the results - the famous Scott Lee Cohen effect
Comment by Fax Machine Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 11:57 am
@ Fax Machine
I happen to know that the poll did test all the candidates in the 4th CD race and those not named Chuy, Proco or Sol measured in low single digits (
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:19 pm
Randy, thanks. I forgot about that. Ramirez needs to lose his next aldermanic race.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:25 pm
Now I’m all in for Proco Joe. Chuy is terrible, but at least better than Ramirez.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:26 pm
@ Ron
Re-read the poll. Ain’t gonna happen.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:28 pm
I know Proco won’t win, he’s the best of those running though.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:43 pm
Proco is not a communist.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:43 pm
Chuy will don the earmuffs.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:47 pm
Surprise, surprise Chuy’s poll numbers are high. This man has been in politics his entire life working in the Latino community.
Comment by ChiChi Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 12:57 pm
Garcia has worked in Chicago politics for decades, yet scandals have avoided him. That says something.
Comment by 33rd Ward Thursday, Jan 25, 18 @ 3:41 pm