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Gallup: Trump’s 2017 Illinois job disapproval rating was 62 percent

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President Donald Trump’s job approval rating averaged 38% throughout the U.S. in 2017, but at the state level it ranged from a high of 61% in West Virginia to a low of 26% in Vermont. […]

Trump averaged the lowest first-year approval rating of any president in Gallup history, and lagged Barack Obama’s 57% first-year rating by nearly 20 points. Naturally, this is reflected in Trump’s state-level ratings, with only 12 states giving him 50% or higher approval, compared with 41 for Obama in 2009.

The 50% mark is an important threshold in presidential election years for presidents seeking a second term, as it correlates strongly with reelection. Popular presidents also tend to weather midterm election years with fewer party losses in Congress.

Trump’s latest weekly approval rating is 38%, matching his 2017 average. Not only is the overall number not encouraging for his party heading into the 2018 midterms, but the latest state-level averages suggest Trump will be a liability for Republican candidates in far more states than he will be an asset. […]

These results are based on 171,469 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted nationally throughout 2017. Gallup interviewed more than 1,000 respondents in 39 states in 2017, and no fewer than 471 in any other state. Each state’s sample is weighted to match U.S. Census Bureau demographic parameters for that state’s adult population. The full results by state appear at the end of this article.

* Illinois job rating…

Approve: 33
Disapprove: 62
No Opinion: 5
Sample size: 5,452

* Methodology…

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted January 20-December 30, 2017, on the Gallup Daily survey, with a random sample of 171,469 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Margins of error for individual states are no greater than ±8 percentage points and are ±4 percentage points in most states. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:06 pm

Comments

5% undecided seems remarkably low to me.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:10 pm
Seems like a big win for Gov. Rauner!

Comment by Mike Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:12 pm
“Donald Trump and Bruce Rauner are hurting Illinois”

“Hurricane McQueary” type headwinds…

33/62 for Trump

30/55 for Rauner

Not good markers…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:14 pm
Trumps support among likely voters is less based on Alabama.He was at 49 in the exit poll and he is at 53 here.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:14 pm
===He was at 49 in the exit poll and he is at 53 here. ===

The special election was late in the year. These results were from the entire year, so, yeah, he would’ve been lower by then.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:16 pm
Thus why all the D candidates in one way or another are running against Trump.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:18 pm
With just 33 percent approval for Trump, no wonder Rauner never uses the President’s name.

Comment by anon2 Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:22 pm
As for Trump’s “drag” on GOP candidates, what caught my eye is that Republicans have moved up recently in the generic Congressional ballot - from down 13% to down 6%. Perhaps this means some GOP candidates are able to distinguish themselves from Trump - so maybe Rauner, Harold, Roskam, etc. aren’t toast for sure.

Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:27 pm
===Republicans have moved up recently in the generic Congressional ballot===

Depends on the pollster.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm
As Rich pointed out this a year average for the states. If and not all states may shift….Illinois shifted as much it would be 29 69. No amount of spending can stop that from a wave. At that big a shift it not about a statewide race its about how many republicans will be left in any office.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:30 pm
Trump’s numbers don’t mean much in Illinois. Any Republican , at the national level, wouldn’t poll well in Illinois. Illinois is a Democrat party state. Che Guevara and Bernie Sanders are way more popular than Mitt Romney and Donald Trump… in Illinois. Fortunately , for Republicans , Illinois isn’t a state in ascendancy. Illinois Democrats should do well no matter who’s in the White House.

Comment by Steve Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:42 pm
===Illinois is a Democrat party state.===

… and yet, Gov. Rauner, ran as an alleged Republican, and won, and Republicans like Mark Kirk, Judy Baar Topinka, all recently won statewide too.

You stick with “Democrat party”…

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:46 pm
===Illinois is a Democrat party state===

I think Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar, George Ryan, Bruce Rauner, Mark Kirk, Judy Barr Topinka, Dan Rutherford, Peter Fitzgerald etc would probably disagree with you.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:48 pm
“Perhaps this means some GOP candidates are able to distinguish themselves from Trump - so maybe Rauner, Harold, Roskam, etc. aren’t toast for sure.”

The biggest impediment to a second term of Bruce Rauner remains Bruce Rauner’s first term. (But if his back-porch double-reverse blind trust story has any legs, the comparing the in-office dirty business of the Republican executives will be irresistible.)

Harold will have to run against a Democratic candidate who will say, “Donald Trump is trying to do X to Illinois — I will fight for Illinois against Donald Trump.” And “I will take on Donald Trump’s latest outrage” is a great formula for earned media. I’m pretty sure Donald Trump (and his unpopularity) will be central to that race.

Roskam can’t run from the Trump tax bill that he helped craft. But he might not need to because his district is tailored for him like a suit. (The best bet for getting rid of Pete is to get rid of Rauner and see how redistricting shakes out.)

That said, NOBODY is toast for sure.

IMHO, YMMV, Etc.,
– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 12:50 pm
OW, as the most prolific “Republican” on this site, how many of your 9 million posts say anything remotely positive about “your” Republican party?

Nationwide, it has been decades since the Republicans have had this much power in Washington and in state houses.

Illinois Democrats are not omnipotent and their approval is in the sewer as well.

Jim Edgar retired 19 years ago.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:03 pm
===how many of your 9 million posts say anything remotely positive about “your” Republican party?===

There’s a difference between Raunerites and Republicans.

The “Perfect 10”

Leader Radogno, Leader Durkin, Leader Brady, I have given support and encouragement towards Republicans. Rauner is not a Republican.

You forgot Comptroller Topinka, I didn’t.

You forgot Bruce Rauner. Ironically, I didn’t, albeit mocking Rauner, but you forgot him.

I also have supported Gov. Kasich.

Making it about me… is this all you have?

Your concerned trolling for and about me is touching.

I’m more notorious or infamous than anything, why raise that for me?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:14 pm
Democratic super majority in the Senate currently and have had control since 2003

Democratic majority in the House for 33 of the last 35 years with years of having super majority.

With the exception of the Governors office the Democrats have had a large majority of the years in elected state offices and the U.S. Senate since the early 1960’s.

Comment by Stand Tall Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:23 pm
It’s interesting this was a telephone poll. My guess is the people who took it have land lines, or still answer the phone w/o knowing who is calling. Older people. People more likely to vote.

Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm
It’s land lines and mobile. It seems to be very close based on an actual election…Alabama. It’s an average throughout the year and Trump was clearly declining. With the PA redistricting and California alone the dems may get half the seats they need in house. It looks like they can get the rest in Illinois Iowa New York and New jersey.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:32 pm
===With the exception of the Governors office…===

“Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln… “

The 26 years of Republicans controlling, arguably, one of the most powerful State Executive Office in America…

Pate and the Senate… a decade.

Hmm.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 1:33 pm
There are voters who would like to see a smaller government that is still effective in key areas. There is a perception of corruption that permeates Illinois government. Many would like to see a cleansing.

Rauner has failed these voters. Trump needs some victories, but is not yet a full fledged failure. I expect Trump will fully fail by November. But he still has time. Rauner does not.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 2:16 pm
Could it be argued that Illinois Republicans aren’t really Republicans?

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 2:33 pm
BDD Parties change over time. In my youth, memories of abolitionist parents were still alive. That shaped the Republican Party. Today those memories are in history books, not people.

Reagan would be considered too liberal by today’s Tea Party. And Eisenhower reshaped America with the Interstate system.
Could either party do that today?

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 3:03 pm
=The 26 years of Republicans controlling, arguably, one of the most powerful State Executive Office in America…
Pate and the Senate… a decade.
Hmm. =

Things ain’t what they used to be.

Since 2010, you’ve had only Dan Rutherford, Bruce Rauner, Mark Kirk, and JBT win statewide. During that same time the Dems have held strong majorities in both chambers, super majorities for most of that time in the House and still a super majority in the Senate. In 2014, a national GOP wave year, you had two Republicans win statewide, with one of them, JBT, being a unique person with strong bipartisan support, and the other, Rauner, who poured more cash into his own race than any Il gov candidate before. In 2016, you had two statewide races, and despite national results favoring republicans, you had 0 statewide wins.

The days of Edgar and Pate are long gone.

Comment by m Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 3:06 pm
LBM. Agreed. It will never happen, but I dream of an end to the two party system. It seems like elected officials are entirely owned by their respective parties. The only time they get to cast an opposing vote,it seems, is when the outcome is already decided.

Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 3:10 pm
.===… you’ve had only… ===

That’s 4 wins, one statewide election revived.

Good try.

Rauner has destroyed the brand of ILGOP… Trunp is ensuring Republican in states like Illinois remains crippled statewide.

Saying only 4 wins, a split of the Senate seats, a winner and great statewide elected official, a winner statewide that lost his way, and Rauner who isn’t a Republican by any measure but co-opted the ILGOP… is still 4 win by 4 different people.

Losing is on my “old” party, the party before Rauner ruined the brand with his taint. Losing races is on those running.

I fed you.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 3:13 pm
Meh….Will this knock off Davis, Shimkus, and LaHood? Nah. So Trumpism and its minions will stay strong.

Comment by Dr X Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 3:32 pm
BO was a tremendous orator. Trump. Very pedestrian. But I must hand it to Trump. He has more promise to the working poor and middle classes than BO had.

Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 8:57 pm
No surprise. Trump is the worst human to sit in the Oval Office since Reagan.

Comment by Ron Tuesday, Jan 30, 18 @ 9:32 pm