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Could Mike Bost be in trouble?

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Illinois
Pundit rankings

St. Clair County State’s Attorney Brendan Kelly, the leading Democrat, outraised incumbent Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, in the fourth quarter with more than $315,000, mostly from individuals. Bost raised just over $248,000 in that time, the majority of it from PACs.

The cash-on-hand contest is also competitive. Bost went into 2018 with $686,012 available to him, compared to Kelly’s $520,523.

* Money and other considerations have prompted the Cook Political Report to change the Bost district from “lean Republican” to “toss up”…

IL-12: Mike Bost (R) — Southwest border: East St. Louis, Carbondale

Toss Up. This southern Illinois district gave President Trump a 15 point margin and Bost has been consistently underestimated. But the district also voted for Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth by nine points. More importantly, Democrats may have landed their most prized recruit of the 2018 cycle in St. Clair County prosecutor Brendan Kelly, who outraised Bost this past cycle.

Kelly, a Notre Dame graduate and Navy veteran who served on ships in the Middle East, is the type of moderate Democrat that has done well here in the past. He plays up his work in the county attorney’s office combating the opioid epidemic. Republicans hint there’s plenty to go after in his prosecutorial record, but they’ll have a hard time painting Kelly as a liberal. This is a top-tier Democratic opportunity.

Long way to go, so we’ll see. As the rater mentions, Bost is consistently underestimated. And while Trump and Duckworth did both win that district, Republican Leslie Munger also won it by 5 points.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:35 pm

Comments

The national GOP would be crazy not to put up a big fight to protect Bost.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:42 pm
Bost’s district is the lightest red of all IL incumbent R congressionals (using only November 16 numbers for only contested races).

Comment by Dan Johnson Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:47 pm
“more than $315,000, mostly from individuals.”

And Cook’s shift from “lean Republican” to “toss up” will be a good hook for Kelly’s calls to bigger donors.

Good news begets good news.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:47 pm
Kelly is going to mop the deck with Bost.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 12:57 pm
We’re already door-to-door for Kelly while the Bost ground game appears nonexistent as yet

Comment by JohnnyPyleDriver Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:01 pm
I’d love to see Kelly oust Bost in November.

Comment by Justin Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:19 pm
The swing between R and D in the 2016 Presidential (R+15%) and U.S. Senate (D+9%) races are interesting enough. Although an R+5% Comptroller race leans things back GOP in a healthy way, the 2016 state Senate and House races in that Congressional district were only R+2% when tallied together.

Then again, the 2014 non-presidential cycle numbers were R+19% for Governor and R+11% for Treasurer…it was R+5% for Comptroller but a “Simon” was on the ballot in that race.

Comment by COPN Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:28 pm
–Bost’s district is the lightest red of all IL incumbent R congressionals (using only November 16 numbers for only contested races).–

Trump +15 in Bost’s district.

Clinton +7 in Roskam’s district.

Now you know why Roskam always seems to be in the midst of a nervous breakdown whenever he emerges from his bunker.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/peter-j-roskam/

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:40 pm
Bost 50.8%. Kelley will lose Monroe County,Randolph and Jackson. St. Clair slight edge to kelley, but Millstadt,Freeburg,Smithton and Mascoutah neutralize a once Dem stronghold.

Prediction. Costello wins by a tighter margin than Kelley loses.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:43 pm
If a D can win this seat, it is Kelly.
Fits the district perfectly.
We will see if southern Il is still competitive,
or was the tipping point reached in 16 pushing that part of Illinois outside the metroeast to the R column
column

Comment by FDRDEMOCRAT Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:50 pm
FDR. Kelly is a good campaigner….but. this district is solid red. A Biss led ticket would lead to a bigger defeat.

Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 1:54 pm
Another prediction. Outside an isolated pocket or two in St. CLAIR Co. You wont see Kelly and Costello dancing together.

Comment by Blue dog dem Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 2:15 pm
BossToss is put of gas. Seldom seen in district TTFN

Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Bost skates by when people talk the game the hatred of “career politicians.” Inever inderestimate him, but he is kind of joke. Harken back to the staged outrage of a procedure the D’s used on the floor that he voted for when they were in the majority.

Comment by Mongo Thursday, Feb 8, 18 @ 5:32 pm