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* Korecki…
J.B. Pritzker’s campaign released new internal numbers to POLITICO that show him leading the next closest challenger, Chris Kennedy, by 14 points with Biss in a close third. The Global Strategy Group conducted a live telephone survey of 802 likely Democratic primary voters from Feb. 9-13 asking “if the Democratic primary election were held today who would you vote for?” Results: 37 percent of the those polled backed Pritzker, with Kennedy at 23 percent and Biss with 21 percent.
* OK, let’s compare these new numbers to a poll released by the Pritzker campaign on February 1st…
JB currently leads with 41% of the vote, ahead of Daniel Biss at 22%, Chris Kennedy at 16%, and 20% of voters undecided.
So, Pritzker is down four, Biss is down a point, and Kennedy is up 7.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:39 am
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The negative ads on Biss are working. JB’s people know the deal. If Biss picked up black votes, he can make it a race. There is no path for kennedy.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:42 am
That’s all basically within the standard of error. You’re confusing noise for signal.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:44 am
All makes sense to me. JB and Biss basically hold steady, Kennedy grabs a couple from the undecideds as the other two take incoming fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Kennedy’s surge is built heavily on African Americans, either.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:45 am
There is literally no one in the state without an opinion on JB. The undecideds are going to break to Kennedy and Biss. Is the 37 JBs floor is the real question. Not where I would want to be if I had spent 50 million.
Comment by Come on, man! Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:46 am
I dont feel we can say Pritzker is down 4 unless the same voters on the prior poll were polled again for this one.
This is a new poll with new people voting so in that case I don’t see Pritzker being down 4. This shows he has a strong lead if anything.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:47 am
JB has endured millions of dollars of attack ads and is STILL leading by 14 points.
Comment by feline Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:48 am
I don’t see anything in this poll changing my gut feelings that if the primary was today, Billionaire Boy will be nominated by, of all parties, the Democratic one. Not the Republicans, not the Gilded, not the Monopolist, but the Democratic Party.
Good grief.
But the primary isn’t today, and the Democrats might still realize what they stand for by then.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:49 am
–There is no path for kennedy.–
Huh? He’s up 7 with a month to go.
Events can still dictate the outcome. None of these guys have ever been vetted by a statewide race.
The biggest story of the race remains Kennedy and Biss splitting the Not JB vote.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:50 am
Kennedy picked up a couple nice endorsements with the Trib & Daily Herald.
If he gets Sun Times too that’s a nice trifecta
Comment by Fax Machine Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:50 am
Are voters switching or are undecideds committing? It appears to be mostly the latter which is to be expected as we approach election day and voters start to pay more attention.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:50 am
Kennedy benefitted the most from Pritzker’s race remsrks. Kennedy also benefitted from not having a new headline every day making dumb claims against other Democrats and having JB turn his fire on Biss and Biss focus on JB. Probably not enough undecideds for either Kennedy or Biss to win unless another Pritzker scandal drops.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:50 am
JB is floundering, Kennedy is finding his feet, and Biss has potential for further growth.
My only hope is that the victor won’t be too bruised to take on Rainer. He must go.
Comment by Red fish blue fish Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:51 am
===There is no path for kennedy===
Disagree, but this is where his mismanaged campaign really hurts his chances. He could capitalize on Pritzker’s take down of Biss but he doesn’t have any cash. His current ad is good, but he needs a better closer and he needs to be up with a heavy buy statewide.
For those who’ve been saying Pritzker would be vulnerable if this was a one-on-one race (Wordslinger), this is evidence of that. Good observation. This dynamic plays to Pritzker’s advantage. If you see a negative ad targeting Kennedy, you’ll know the surge is real. For now, it’s about keeping a lid on Biss, and it appears to be working.
Tip your cap to Team Pritzker. They know what they’re doing.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:52 am
JB floundering???? After the last 2 weeks he’s still up by 14 points. Absent some other bombshell, he’s in a really good place.
Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:54 am
As long as Biss and Kennedy continue to jockey for second and third it’s hard to see anybody presenting a credible challenge to the Pritzker. And if anything this poll gives Kennedy more reasons to stay in the game whereas earlier this month there was more pressure to bow out to clear the field for Biss.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:54 am
===If Biss picked up black votes, he can make it a race===
And if the sky was green, grass might be blue. Have you seen any real attempt at doing this?
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:54 am
Those recent tapes from Tribune/Rauner may backfire. I’m African American and those tapes are giving JB more opportunities to speak face to face with African American voters. We are also a very forgiving people so this may only backfire on Rauner.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:55 am
Real - that is a fascinating observation about the Blago tape making JB really reach out to African American community. I hadn’t thought of that.
Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:57 am
It should be noted that Republican Governor Bruce Rauner is spending millions and millions of his republican money trying to decide who should be ellected the Democratic nominee for governor. Why isn’t that a bigger issue in this campaign? Just think if Bruce succeeds he can legitimately claim that he picked his democratic opponent in the November election.
Comment by Bruce wants Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:58 am
Kennedy is still down 14 points, Biss is starting to feel the effects of negative ads.
The real magic number is probably anything over 39% to win this thing. That’s especially great for Pritzker, not because he is in the sweet spot of that “number”, it’s that Pritzker can be under water and still pull this out, as long as he can stay in that groove of 38-43% in polling for his approval.
I’m sure Rich will get to this, but Kennedy getting the Trib Edotorial Board endorsement helps Kennedy, a Democratic candidate for governor that applauded Bruce Rauner, something only Ken Dunkin would say too.
With a 14 point lead, arguably the most prepared ground game throughout Illinois, and the cash to stay on TV the next 27 days, this poll reinforces the smart play of Pritxker skipping the lone downstate televised debate, that is now canceled.
Biss needs to build and vote his voters as soon as he can, including downstate sweet spots that make the most sense like “college towns”, and using his impressive endorsements of groups that can mobilize and drive turnout, but I wouldn’t wait to get that going. Early voting might help Biss more than any other candidate, since a Pritzker will probably have the best “game day” structure of the three with Labor and organizations working in concert on Election Day.
Kennedy, man, what a difference 12 weeks and $8 million woulda made right after New Years. While slurping up Rauner’s talking points, and even purposely praising Rauner, the thematic “Kennedy” way really coulda been a difference in this race weeks ago. This poll is interesting, but explain to me how Kennedy even gets the percentage he has in this poll and make these actual voters? Big ask.
Pritzker should be hammering and shaking, along with begging the calendar to flip faster and faster, Rauner on Quincy and the back porch, broken trust - broken promise, issues, and hammer in that closing argument in tandem. It’s now about holding a lead while closing a deal.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:58 am
===You’re confusing noise for signal. ===
I don’t necessarily disagree, but there’s a theme out there that Biss is surging and you’d think it would be in evidence compared to a few weeks ago.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:58 am
Pritzker is maintaining his double digit lead. I don’t see that as a bad thing. The other two contenders are chasing, and seem to be running in place. Kennedy has the name but not the family talent. Biss is a pension thief, who would like us all to forget his unconstitutional money grab. The ads will keep coming from Pritzker, and he will maintain his lead.
Comment by Retired Educator Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 9:59 am
Good, Kennedy is the only tolerable Dem running. Biss is the worst. A transaction tax? NO FREAKING WAY
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:00 am
This has turned into a very interesting race. It took awhile but Biss, Kennedy and JB are clearly each defining themselves to Democratic voters in ways that go beyond the superficial classifications of super-wealthy, ultra-rich, and middle class. That is a good thing.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:00 am
JB is just same old party dem hack. No thanks.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:01 am
the Tribune endorsement of Kennedy hits exactly why he is attractive to those who can hear him… he’s got an edge, he’s been against Berrios for months before everyone else caught up, and he hit Madigan when others cowered. If that campaign can raise enough money to ensure the message is heard, his numbers will only grow.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:06 am
I suspect Kennedy will have the money to finish strong. Big donors are starting to hedge their bets. Kennedy is second choice of both J.B. and Biss voters.
Comment by Noodle Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:12 am
===I suspect Kennedy will have the money to finish strong. Big donors are starting to hedge their bets.===
Really? Where?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:15 am
I’m more put off by endorsements from the Tribune than anything else. I doubt I’m alone in that regard.
Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:18 am
== It should be noted that Republican Governor Bruce Rauner is spending millions and millions of his republican money trying to decide who should be ellected the Democratic nominee for governor. Why isn’t that a bigger issue in this campaign? ==
Because the Russians haven’t jumped in yet /s
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:18 am
==Those recent tapes from Tribune/Rauner may backfire.==
I wouldn’t go that far, but they are probably survivable.
That being said, anything that makes major Democrats stop taking the African American community for granted is, in the long run, a good thing (and yes, I agree that all three major Dem candidates had already courted the African American community to at least one pretty major extent, but they all can/should do more).
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:18 am
–Those recent tapes from Tribune/Rauner may backfire.–
See Dan Hynes, Harold Washington spot.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:18 am
I’m really fascinated by J.B.’s performance.
I’m still one of the undecides (first leaned Biss, then thought J.B. would be a great choice and now back to no idea who to back). It is amazing that the anti-J.B. ads don’t seem to be making a real difference.
I rarely watch TV, but I’ve spent much of the past few weeks in doctors’ offices, to that means time in waiting rooms with cable new blaring. Those anti-J.B. ads seem to be on constantly. I really expected them to move voters.
I expected him to be down 10 or more.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:25 am
Hynes was hurt more from Quinn’s Burr Oak ad not from the Harold ad backfire
Comment by Noodle Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:25 am
Democrat Voters
If you want to defeat Rauner you must realize that Rauner thinks Pritzker is his biggest threat.
Dem voters wake up…vote for Pritzker or waste your vote on Biss or Kennedy and Rauner will win.
Comment by MOON Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:27 am
Moon,
When you reference “Democrat voters”, most Democratic voters will conclude that you don’t have their best interests in mind.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:29 am
**It is amazing that the anti-J.B. ads don’t seem to be making a real difference.**
JB has spent $50 million and has gone down in the polls, and is only in the mid-30’s. Yea, I’d say the anti-JB ads are working.
But, also, I believe the Blago/JB ads aren’t running any more.
Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:32 am
GOONER
I reference Democrat voters since I assume they are the ones most likely to vote in the Democrat Primary.
Ok…so Rauner does have their best interest in mind.
Give me a break.
Comment by MOON Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:33 am
==Those anti-J.B. ads seem to be on constantly. I really expected them to move voters.==
There’s probably a luck-of-the-draw element to this. We know by the numbers that JB’s own ads are on pretty constantly, too.
And I suspect that Rauner’s ads are effective, it’s just that we’re starting out from such a baseline that even shaving 5 points off of JB’s lead doesn’t change the nature of the race.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:34 am
This poll is more than a week old. Team Pritzker didn’t release their most recent numbers. Why?
Comment by AuH20 Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:35 am
JB has been hammered for weeks but still leads by 14. And for all the “Biss is surging” talk, he’s stalled, probably because JB has weighed in on TV and online to prevent Biss from defining himself. If you’re JB, you want Kennedy to be the guy surging right now because Kennedy’s campaign can’t close the deal and will likely peter out.
I’ve been expecting this to be a 40 / 30 / 30 election. These numbers suggest that’s where we’re heading.
If I’m JB, I’m a happy camper with these numbers.
Comment by Anon0091 Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:35 am
Moon,
“Democrat voters” are a creation of FoxNews.
There is no such thing.
The rest of us know it is the “Democratic Party” with “Democratic voters.”
Your cable habits have betrayed your attempt to seem non-partisan.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:36 am
===If I’m JB, I’m a happy camper with these numbers.===
LOL
“Happy”?
Pritzker is still under water and if your own numbers hold (I think 39% probably wins this as well) Pritzker still has a majority of Primary Democratic voting voters not voting JB.
You’d be happy like a 5-Seed in the NCAA Tournament getting past the 12-Seed Pitfall that happens every tourney.
Survive and advance. “Happy”? Hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:40 am
What’s Biss got for an encore? I think he’s peaked and the Madigan org problems were a lifeline for a bonus line of attacks on Pritzker. 12 hours of Facebook? Good gimmick but can’t beat wall to wall ads from Pritzker. This all comes back to the problem that Kennedy pulls from Biss and not Pritzker, so they will yo yo back and forth for a couple more weeks. ABC, And Biss can’t Close.
Comment by Sonny Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:40 am
GOONER
It is your cable habits that betray you.
I have no idea what Fox News uses for these labels.
Go Away.
Comment by MOON Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:42 am
A week ago, that commercial on Biss and teacher pensions hadn’t kicked in yet, mail is just getting started, and union efforts are just ramping up now. I think JB is in a decent spot. Not great, but still going to be tough to beat.
Comment by earl Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:43 am
“Survive and advance. “Happy”? Hmm.”
I take your point, but we’re talking about the lowest point in the campaign after being hammered. Could have been tied or down, so being up by 14 is a hell of a lot better. So yea, happy.
Comment by Anon0091 Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:46 am
These poll numbers are over a week old. Almost for certain jb has been doing constant polling and decided these were the numbers to release. I wonder what the other polls said.
Comment by DNC Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:46 am
===…but we’re talking about the lowest point in the campaign after being hammered. Could have been tied or down, so being up by 14 is a hell of a lot better…===
The leaking hasn’t stopped.
He’s still leaking.
You’re happy… and this hasn’t leveled off?
Oh boy, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:48 am
IF Biss holds his 20%, then Kennedy will have trouble beating JB. If Biss were to collapse, then it would be a different story. Likewise if JB were to collapse. Right now, I don’t see a collapse.
Comment by anon2 Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:50 am
I guess it is okay to tell people who to vote for in this thread. So I am strongly advocating that if you are a democrat you should vote for Kennedy. This idea that you think Rauner fears JB the most is so way off base. You say why is Rauner running ads against JB? Well friends, if Rauner didn’t do it Kennedy and Biss would have never put together a coherent attack. So now you have Biss Kennedy and Rauner all working together to attack JB. This means that if JB wins, which he probably will, JB goes into a general election with half of his party strongly opposing him. Just because you beat up on someone doesn’t mean you fear them the most.
So why vote for Kennedy? Kennedy doesn’t carry as much baggage, he has a great name, and if he holds his anti madigan position it takes away Rauner’s most credible attack (Being another shill for Madigan).
JB can buy this Primary, but if you want to give Rauner a real challenge you should probably vote for Kennedy.
Comment by Iggy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:54 am
==Pritzker is still under water and if your own numbers hold (I think 39% probably wins this as well) Pritzker still has a majority of Primary Democratic voting voters not voting JB.==
Maybe “happy” overstates it, but Rauner won his primary with 41% and we’re not talking about Pat Quinn’s failure to do anything about Quincy. Any primary you can walk away from his a good primary.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:55 am
==Well friends, if Rauner didn’t do it Kennedy and Biss would have never put together a coherent attack.==
Sure, but if Rauner isn’t sweating running against JB, he doesn’t really care that Kennedy and Biss never put that attack together.
==This means that if JB wins, which he probably will, JB goes into a general election with half of his party strongly opposing him. ==
Same would go for Kennedy.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 10:59 am
===Any primary you can walk away from his a good primary.===
I think I said this too…
===You’d be happy like a 5-Seed in the NCAA Tournament getting past the 12-Seed Pitfall that happens every tourney.
Survive and advance.===
- Iggy -
The two Democrats that applauded Bruce Rauner are Ken Dunkin and Chris Kennedy.
Kennedy applauding Rauner should give any Democrat pause, not necessarily a reason to vote for Kennedy.
If Dems want a nominee that applauds Bruce Rauner…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:00 am
OW is right about the magic percentage being 39%.
Look back to 2014…the GOP primary was 4 credible candidates (well, 3 after Rutherford was knocked down with scandals)…And Rauner beat Dillard with 40%…Dillard nipping at Brucie’s backside with 37%.
JB, Biss and Kennedy will collectively get over 90% of the vote. 39% or 40% will certainly win the primary. Over the next 27 days, what can Kennedy or Biss do to 1) get the upperhand to clearly be in a strong second place and push the other down to a clear third place and 2) Get JB down a few ticks to 35% or less?
From Kennedy’s or Biss’ point of view, they’d have to have both things happen. Even if another JB bombshell presents itself, if Kennedy or Biss are still splitting the anti-JB vote about equally…all that means is JB is still ahead, just by a smaller margin. It’s the 4th Quarter and time is ticking away…
Comment by The Snowman Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:06 am
===There is no path for kennedy===
Except the one through the West and South Sides of Chicago and South Suburbs where high numbers of AA voters reside. They are notoriously under-polled in almost every race.
The path may not be paved with gold, but a path is a path. And he’s got one. JB is coming back to him. That’s what this poll tells me.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:11 am
So why vote for Kennedy? Kennedy doesn’t carry as much baggage, he has a great name, and if he holds his anti madigan position it takes away Rauner’s most credible attack (Being another shill for Madigan).
JB can buy this Primary, but if you want to give Rauner a real challenge you should probably vote for Kennedy.
-Sorry but to me Kennedy appears to be too boring to drive people to the polls. He does not even seem that interested in campaigning. He is relying on his name alone to win, but he needs to bring a lot more to the table…
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:20 am
There’s a great chance one of two super-rich people will be the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. A problem Democrats might have is from puritopians who will blindly condemn all billionaires and not be willing to make the distinction between the Democrat and Rauner, the likely Republican nominee.
I don’t support Kennedy at this point, but if he wins and faces off against Rauner or Ives, the Kennedy campaign will say jump, and Grandson will say how high?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:24 am
======If Biss picked up black votes, he can make it a race===
And if the sky was green, grass might be blue. Have you seen any real attempt at doing this?===
Agree with Rich. Biss is losing out on a real opportunity here. The main difference between the last two polls? Pritzker’s slip up over the Rod recordings and Kennedy’s smashing him over the head with it. Not to mention him all but calling Rahm a racist. Smart money on the Kennedy uptick is that he is picking up black voters. I would love to see crosstabs.
Comment by Boone's is Back Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:38 am
==I dont feel we can say Pritzker is down 4 unless the same voters on the prior poll were polled again for this one.==
That’s not how statistics works.
Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 11:52 am
I think I took that poll (landline), as soon as you said you were for Biss/Kennedy, I picked Kennedy, they then went through 4 or 5 five negative things about Kennedy (most of which were a stretch) and then tried to change your mind.
Point; I was more of an ad than a poll.
Comment by Landline Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 12:06 pm
==That’s all basically within the standard of error. You’re confusing noise for signal.==
Agree that we don’t really know Biss is down, but the margin of error on a poll of 802 is 3.5%. Kennedy up 7 is well outside. Pritzker’s drop is probably outside the margin of error as well (though we can’t know for sure because of potential rounding) but a little outside the margin of error is still outside the margin of error.
Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 12:16 pm
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 12:22 pm
Addendum: Not to get too much in the weeds here, but you’d actually want to use a two-sample test to decide whether you’re confident a candidate has actually gained from one poll to the next, but in any case Kennedy +7 is still well outside the margin of error.
Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 12:27 pm
Trib and Daily Herald are staunch GOP backers and will lie down in front of a train to help Rauner get re-elected. So who are they going to endorse in the Dem primary? The guy most likely to beat Rauner? Heck no. And after all the attacks and hits on JB you’d think he’d be sinking, but instead he’s leading by double digits. The Biss “surge” spin is a myth designed to raise more $ and Kennedy gains a few points but still isn’t within the margin or error - and editorial endorsements don’t win primaries. Sorry.
Comment by Shytown Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 3:13 pm
I don’t think you understand polling. Virtually all polling asks different people each time.
-exactly why I said Pritzker is technically not down 4. He is mostly still at the same percentage with the voters from the prior poll.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 3:24 pm
I believe JB, Biss & Kennedy can each beat Rauner in the General Election. At this point, I want someone who has the correct policy solutions. A public insurance option is appealing. Legalizing marijuana is another good call as we need those tax dollars for our state as early as possible before neighboring states wake up and pass their own legalization. I am presently undecided but have to admit that JB might be best on the issues.
Comment by Blue Dogs are Blind, Deaf & Dumb Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 4:25 pm
I think this shows that African Americans responded to the Pritzker bad news and Kennedy’s ridden a small bump as a result. It also shows that Biss has perhaps maxed out his current outreach with certain groups and needs to target other groups that they might not have as much. To Rich’s point, African Americans, Latinos, and Asian Americans. For those that are skeptical on the juice being worth the squeeze, the margin of victory on March 20 might be very slim…
Comment by Veil of Ignorance Wednesday, Feb 21, 18 @ 5:42 pm
Kennedy is the candidate with the strongest plans in all areas to improve Illinois. He is a seasoned business man who understands our economy. But most importantly to me , he is a humanitarian, and that is what we need in public office right now for so very many reasons.
Comment by Shannon Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 6:45 am