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* From an NBC News story about Congressman Dan Lipinski’s primary…
“I’ve done 25 or 30 races over the years, and I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this,” said Thom Serafin, a former Democratic consultant who is now an independent political analyst in Chicago.
Thom and I are old pals, but he may have forgotten about his friend US Sen. Alan Dixon, an old-style conservative Democrat who got outflanked on his left by Carol Moseley Braun.
* Also, this…
Blue Dog Democats expressed anger earlier this winter that the DCCC hadn’t come through with an endorsement for the incumbent. But Lipinski has since told the Washington Examiner he’s getting the committee’s support.
“And I would hope so,” Blue Dog Kurt Schrader said in the Speaker’s Lobby on Wednesday. “Why would members pay dues to the DCCC if they don’t have your back at the end of the day?”
The party apparatus itself hasn’t turned against the congressman. The DCCC is with him. The Cook County regular organization is with him. The Illinois AFL-CIO is with him. Some fellow party members have, however, turned against him.
* I hate stories like this..
In interviews with nearly a dozen Democrats, most said they are glad to have a real debate on issues in a district that has been virtually unchallenged for decades, including those who support Lipinski.
“We have not had a choice, a real choice, in at least 14 years,” said Newman supporter Mary Anne Quinlian. “Not having a choice makes everyone feel limited. That isn’t healthy.”
But Lipinski says progressive pressure may drive centrists like him away from the Democrats for good.
“I have seen the Democratic Party, unfortunately, push pro-life voters out of the party,” Lipinski said. “I have people come up to me and say, ‘I used to be a Democrat and because of the life issue, I can’t be a Democrat anymore.’ ”
“We interviewed nearly a dozen Democrats and the first person we quoted is a Newman supporter and the second is the congressman himself! Hooray!” Also, Ms. Quinlan is a gun control activist. And there are no quotes in that piece from any people who aren’t identified as supporters of one candidate or the other.
* Lynn Sweet gets it right…
• Of all the reasons challenger Marie Newman has mustered to defeat Rep. Dan Lipinski in their Democratic primary contest, calling him a “Trump Democrat” is potent political shorthand for turning out her vote.
• In pro-Lipinski direct mail pieces secretly financed by a donor or donors hiding under the name Americans Committed for Progress — it’s a phony organization — Lipinski is portrayed as anti-Trump, even though he hasn’t carved out a niche as standing up to an anti-Trump agenda Democrat.
Lipinski’s own direct mail pieces sets him up as “fighting” Trump health care cuts. That’s to gloss and try to mitigate Lipinski’s opposition to the creation of Obamacare.
• It’s almost a given in this Illinois Democratic primary. Strategists tell me hitting Trump tests well. That’s why so many Illinois Democrats are using Trump.
Lipinski’s American Conservatives Union lifetime rating is just 19.12 out of 100. That’s the highest of all Illinois Democrats, but Peter Roskam’s is 82.77.
* But, hey, ABC News, how are these “moderate” views in today’s Democratic Party?…
Lipinski has come under fire for moderate views that have often put him at odds with others in his party. Lipinski is one of the last pro-life Democrats in the House, and he voted against Obamacare. He did not publicly endorse President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid
Sometimes, time passes you by. I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, but I’d bet good money if he wins they’ll come after him again in 2020.
* Hmm…
Lipinski, allies say, was caught a bit flat-footed by the challenge. He told TPM a few weeks ago that he wasn’t sure “why anyone believes this is going to be a close race to begin with.” He was slow to launch TV ads slamming Newman, allowing her and her allies weeks to themselves to define the race. That allowed Newman to raise her once-nonexistent name ID and drill him for his regular breaks with his party, not an easy feat in Chicago’s expensive media market especially since it’s been saturated with heavy campaign spending from the billionaires running for Illinois governor.
A Lipinski poll taken early in the race found him with a 30-point lead; a recent survey from NARAL found Newman within two points.
* From Citizens For A Better Illinois, a coalition of NARAL, the Human Rights Campaign, SEIU, MoveOn, Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILY’s List…
By Election Day, CBI will have spent more than $1.6 million to expose Dan Lipinski’s record.
A breakdown of our spending:
Mail: $353,256
Cable TV: $599,062
Broadcast TV: $280,000
Digital Advertising: $273,056
Latino Turnout Program: $130,066
Links to their ads and other stuff is here.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 10:48 am
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**I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this**
Ken Dunkin says hi.
Comment by SaulGoodman Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 10:51 am
–“I’ve done 25 or 30 races over the years, and I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this,” said Thom Serafin, a former Democratic consultant who is now an independent political analyst in Chicago.–
Dan Walker re-election effort.
Richard M., when Byrne and Fast Eddie put up Burke for state’s attorney.
Harold Washington, after he won first Dem primary.
Dawn Clark Netsch, when she was the gubernatorial nominee. Edgar had more Dem committeemen lined up than she did.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 10:59 am
You forgot that Alan Dixon had two opponents
If he only had one, he would have won
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 10:59 am
If Lipinski loses, will this be seen/spun as MM losing his grip?
And will MM retaliate either way this race goes?
Comment by Fav Human Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:00 am
Let us be clear. He supports the Department of Justice and us attorneys shutting down medical marijuana programs. He opposed CDB oil which does a great job of pain relief and preventing seizures.
He does not support medical options for pregnant ten year olds. Not my district but I won’t cry if he loses.
Comment by Al Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:01 am
–If Lipinski loses, will this be seen/spun as MM losing his grip?–
I’m sure it will by the delusional who think Madigan is all-powerful in all things.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:02 am
===If he only had one, he would have won ===
Says you.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:03 am
BlueDog Dems. Nearly an extinct species.
Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:03 am
–“I’ve done 25 or 30 races over the years, and I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this,” –
Berrios?
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:04 am
Thank you Dan Lipinski for standing up for the the Life of the unborn child and realizing that taking the life of a child in the womb does not empower women but that it does just the opposite.
Comment by Stand Tall Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:12 am
If Lipinski and Berrios both lose tomorrow, Madigan will appear much more vulnerable. To everyone.
Comment by phocion Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:17 am
=== If Lipinski loses, will this be seen/spun as MM losing his grip? ===
No - The Speaker can’t control what happens outside of the 13th Ward. Lipinski will win in the 13th Ward.
=== And will MM retaliate either way this race goes? ===
Retaliate? Against Newman? I mean he can’t take her garbage cans away. LOL
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:26 am
hard for me to write this after reading the Stand Tall nonsense above, but I do think it is a waste of money going after a Dem elected with significant seniority and who has not done anything wrong. I disagree with him on social issues, but not on infrastructure issues. when you wish you had the money to go after, say, Roskam, remember you weighed in on this primary lefties.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:27 am
== Lipinski, allies say, was caught a bit flat-footed by the challenge ==
Absolutely correct. His polling had him way up and though Newman was collecting plenty of endorsement early on, no one was cutting her any significant checks. That change early last month when money from abortion rights groups started to flow. Suddenly, a whole bunch of Dem voters in the district learned that they disagree with Lipinski on a bunch of issues (not just abortion.)
I think Lipinski will hold on and win, but Newman will be back for more in two years and probably in a better position to beat him with a big turnout driven by the presidential primary.
Comment by Roman Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:31 am
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:03 am:
===If he only had one, he would have won ===
Says you.
I am basing it on the polling at the time. I watched that race very close and based on all of the coverage and polling believe that Alan Dixon would have won.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:36 am
==Thom and I are old pals, but he may have forgotten about his friend US Sen. Alan Dixon, an old-style conservative Democrat who got outflanked on his left by Carol Moseley Braun.==
True enough. But Belleville is a long way away from the old Sout-West side of Chicago.
Comment by A guy Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:40 am
One thing is for certain: If the Little Lipper survives this primary, the Big Lipper will not not make this mistake again in the future. You can bet your last dollar that there will be at least 3 women on the ballot in 2020 with names like “Fran Mary Neimann” or “Marie Ann Newminn”.
Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:45 am
–“I’ve done 25 or 30 races over the years, and I’ve never seen a party turn away from a lawmaker like this,” –
Edward Hanrahan
Comment by a drop in Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:47 am
Rich - I think it was more than just Al Hofeld being a third candidate - he spent big-time on negative ads which hammered at Dixon’s general good reputation and the party hadn’t migrated as much to the left as it is now. Without all those attacks, I think he’d have clobbered CMB. But just my opinion.
Glen Poshard comes to mind.
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:52 am
As a former Republican, and disenchanted for many years with both parties, I think I could be a blue dog democrat, as would many just like me. Dems should shake off the super lib b.s., and the republicans need to find a soul.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:53 am
Berrios?
Well, the “Party” didn’t turn against him. But plenty of active and connected Dems did.
Comment by walker Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:53 am
=== Without all those attacks, I think he’d have clobbered CMB===
Whatever. You can’t change history. And he was clobbered from the left by both candidates. One candidate or two, it’s still very similar.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 12:03 pm
Anyway isn’t that why we have primaries so members of the party can decide? Also with an open primary that should help Lipinski.I guess we are not open but we are an easy to switch state .
Comment by Not a Billionaire Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 12:13 pm
=== Without all those attacks, I think he’d have clobbered CMB===
Not if Dixon had still cast the unnecessary vote for Thomas.
– You can bet your last dollar that there will be at least 3 women on the ballot in 2020 with names like “Fran Mary Neimann” or “Marie Ann Newminn”.–
Gonzo got the green light from the judge to pursue his sham candidates lawsuit against Madigan.
Probably why the Lips didn’t pack the ballot this time.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 12:15 pm
=Probably why the Lips didn’t pack the ballot this time.=
Word, that may be the case. But the Lippers were far more savvy in 2006 when they put up a candidate to dilute the other Irish named candidate. The alleged shill candidate went through the motions to give the appearance of running a “real” campaign.
Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 12:41 pm
Even if Lipinski wins, this turned out to be a referendum on him. His voting record is not abysmal but the pro-life stance is not sustainable in the Democratic Party. He’ll be a target for sure in two years.
Newman has run a great grass roots campaign. She is very presentable, well spoken and her message is strong. But the residents aren’t clamoring for left wing representation, but more just an itch to change the incumbent Lipinski dynasty. It seemed like strong supporters of Newman were outside the district.
Lipinski is not going to change his pro-life position, but it would benefit him (and our district) if he votes the straight party line. And be very critical of Trump.
One other thing, he needs to remember that his district is approaching 30% Hispanic now. And do a better job in tapping into the growing Arab American community.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 12:44 pm
The candidate that was accused of being a shill candidate in 2006 came in second. He clearly went through the motions better than the real opponent, who finished in last place.
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 1:30 pm
If I’m handicapping this race:
3-1: This race is decided by less than 1%
5-1: Recount
Does anybody have better odds?
Comment by Dee Lay Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 2:32 pm
=The candidate that was accused of being a shill candidate in 2006 came in second. He clearly went through the motions better than the real opponent, who finished in last place.=
Not surprising the alleged shill came in 2nd. Neither Irish candidate had the resources to run a proper campaign against the Little Lipper. But, like it or not, the alleged shill served his purpose, wouldn’t you agree?
Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 2:38 pm
==- Amalia - Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 11:27 am:==
He was on the CREW most corrupt list a few years back
Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 3:49 pm
I think a congressman in that district can get away with being a pro-life Dem.
But anti-Obamacare, anti-gay rights, anti-immigration, and even refusing to endorse Obama for re-election? That’s really pushing the envelope.
Comment by Telly Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 3:54 pm
I just got a text message from someone at the Newman campaign asking me if I will vote for Newman because she is the only person that voted for the ACA and DACA. How could she have voted for those things if she has never been in Congress… SMH
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 3:59 pm
@Amalia do you doubt that PP, Emily’s List, and NARAL will back the Dem who wins the primary to run against Roskam in November? I am sure they will go all in on that race. At this point, it does not make tremendous sense to go in hard and risk alienating whomever ends up winning the Dem slot (it seems far from clear from just east of the district). Lipinski or Newman will win the election in November. No need to throw any money at that race after tomorrow.
Comment by Soothsayer Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 5:37 pm
Soothsayer — Emily’s List and NARAL actually did go in to support a candidate in the 6th district. Not sure why EL would choose one woman out of 5 running, or NARAL would back one pro-choice candidate out of 7…. As a donor to both, I am not happy.
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 6:04 pm
@Soccermom I agree with you and was also disappointed by the candidate those organizations chose to support. Why get involved at this point? I do not think EL and Naral spent the same cash on Mazeski as they did on Newman. Of course, now I wonder if I am incorrect as a Mazeski commercial is airing as I am typing this…
Comment by Soothsayer Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 6:11 pm
spend money where it is most needed. against Republicans. not in a primary against an incumbent. and if he is corrupt, that should be the issue. (of course, Newman teamed up with an abuser and a fraud specialist, seemingly because she just let her husband do the work, so she’s not such great shakes.) I’m ragingly pro choice. but I think this race is not the place to spend the money. It can be put to a better use, later….
Comment by Amalia Monday, Mar 19, 18 @ 7:00 pm