Introduction
In December of 2017, Bruce Rauner brushed off a primary challenge from state Representative Jeanne Ives as a “process” – “You get some fringe elements or whatever coming in.” In March of 2018, Rauner beat Ives by a meager 4% margin. A candidate who was once dismissed as “fringe” nearly knocked off a sitting governor. Rauner’s near-loss signals serious trouble for November.
Rauner’s nail-bitter victory underscores how dramatically he underperformed expectations, just as he has as governor. Greg Hinz of Crain’s Chicago wrote that anything less than a 10-point victory would be an “embarrassment for an incumbent governor and raise questions about his ability to unite the party in November.” Chris Kaergard of the Peoria Journal Star said that Ives clearing 30% “could mean lights out for Rauner in the fall.”
These primary results show that it’s not just Democrats and Independents who think Bruce Rauner is a lousy governor - Republicans do too. That will force him to perform a difficult high-wire act of catering to the GOP base, while trying to win over Independents and Democrats who despise him. Ask Ed Gillespie how that high-wire act worked in the Trump era.
Tonight’s results make 3 things clear:
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* Bruce Rauner is extremely unpopular with Democrats, Independents and even Republicans;
* Democrats are enthusiastic to vote – in both the primary and November
* Rauner’s biggest problem is the man in the mirror: He still has no answers for his failed record of making Illinois worse
The Ives revolt laid bare just how vulnerable an incumbent Bruce Rauner really is. And it’s only going to get worse for him as he goes up against a strong Democratic candidate in a Democratic-leaning state.
1. Rauner Downer: Rauner’s Unpopularity Stretches Across Party Lines
Governor Bruce Rauner managed to bring all Illinoisans together – in disliking Bruce Rauner. Rauner is one of the most unpopular politicians in the nation, and as tonight showed, his unpopularity is spread across all party lines. For the better part a year, Rauner’s job approval rating has been stuck in the 30’s, and his disapproval ratings are in the 60’s with all voters.
Tonight, hundreds of thousands of hardcore Republicans joined the ranks of those who believe Rauner’s failed as a leader. And those Republicans may not come home – the Republican primary devolved into a bitter, scorched earth fight. Ives called Rauner a “pathological liar” on the final day of the primary, and conservative commentators have denounced Rauner’s untruthful portrayals of Ives.
Rauner professes that only he can defeat Democrats in the fall. But by “meddling” in the Democratic primary, Rauner proved the opposite. He unleashed a constant barrage of attacks against JB Pritzker, but still trails Pritzker by similar, or worse, margins than where he stood against a generic Democrat in 2017.
Voters have simply made up their mind about Rauner – they don’t like him. And all Rauner has proven he can do is make their antagonism towards him worse.
2. A Democratic Surge: Democrats Are Motivated To Vote in Illinois
Democrats are motivated to vote. Period.
Already well over 1 million Democrats have voted and estimates put tonight’s Democratic turnout at triple the amount of 2014. In fact, tonight’s turnout is expected to rival the recent vote record of 2002. In what has to be a worrying sign for Rauner, approximately double the amount of Democrats have voted compared to Republicans, who are estimated to have deflated totals from 2014 despite what turned out to be an extremely competitive primary election.
High Democratic primary turnout already led to electoral success this cycle in New Jersey and Virginia. Democratic primary voters turned out in record numbers, outpacing their Republican counterparts. In Virginia’s open primary, more than 542,000 Democrats turned out to vote, compared to just 366,000 Republicans. Meanwhile, in New Jersey, 498,000 Dems voted – more than double the 240,000 Republicans who turned out. Democrats would win both governorships by impressive margins and record turnout.
The momentum continues – Democrat Connor Lamb recently won a congressional seat that went Trump by nearly 20 points. As Rauner put it a few weeks it, Trump “unfortunately” lost Illinois by 17%.
Illinois Democrats are motivated to vote to send a clear message to Bruce Rauner and Donald Trump. That showed up today and will again in November.
3. The Central Problem Hasn’t Changed – Rauner’s Still (Not) In Charge
The fundamental problem with any Bruce Rauner campaign is that it will always be hampered by Bruce Rauner’s failed governance. Incumbents have to run on their records, whether by choice or by force. A two-year budget crisis devastated the state’s economy and social service net – state debt soared, the credit rating dropped, and jobs and people are still leaving the state. Rauner refuses to hold himself accountable for the state’s condition, like claiming “I’m not in charge” or giving himself an “A” grade “on things that we can control.” Bruce Rauner has failed to turn the state around, and Illinois voters have clearly soured on his constant dodging of responsibility for his failures.
Rauner’s reluctance to engage President Trump will be just as big of a problem with Democrats as it has been with Ives supporters. Time and again, Rauner refused to protect Illinois families from Trump’s policy agenda. While other Republican governors like John Kasich were leading, Rauner sat quietly and enabled Trump to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, strip immigrants of their protections, and roll back environmental protections.
Conclusion
Governor Bruce Rauner’s desperate attempt to hold onto the Republican nomination shows just how feeble his failing re-election is. His approval ratings are stuck in the mud. He’s fought a draining, months-long battle with his own party that only leaves him weaker than how he started. And he still has to figure out how to run on his record of failed leadership. Rauner pyrrhic victory tonight should be viewed as an embarrassment for an incumbent governor, and a warning sign for the future.
Bruce Rauner started the day as the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent, and somehow, he ended it in even worse shape.
JB gave a fantastic acceptance speech - genuine, humble, biting, unifying. He will unite the party and lead us to victory over Bruce Rauner in the fall. Can’t be more excited for the opportunity to start moving Illinois in a better direction.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 3:21 am
JB’s speech hit all the right notes. Hopeful, forward-looking, fighting for the working class and the little guy going forward. JB is going big…in more ways than one. JB and I say, sing it with me…Go big or go home.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 7:25 am
Pritzker gave a heckuva a speech last night. So did Kennedy.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 7:28 am
Tough week for Kennedy. This was the 50th anniversary of RFK’s announcement that he was running for President.
Kennedy’s loss is the first time that a Kennedy relative has lost in a Democrat primary since 1942, going back to his great grandfather, John “Honey Fitz” Fitzgerald.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 7:56 am
No question, JB knocked it outta the park. Well done, Big Guy.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 7:58 am
–Kennedy’s loss is the first time that a Kennedy relative has lost in a Democrat primary since 1942, going back to his great grandfather, John “Honey Fitz” Fitzgerald.–
Ted Kennedy lost to Carter in the 1980 presidential primaries.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:02 am
Word,
Great catch. Forgot about that one. Thanks.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:07 am
Dems can sell me on all kinds of things with Pritzker, make a case, show me this, talk about that…
Here’s what Dems need to do.
Let Pritzker riff off that truly exceptional and well delivered speech accepting the nomination… then you have an argument.
The words so well crafted. Plain and plain speak was needed, harsh, real, and true where that was warranted too.
It stayed in the challenges, but raised and elevated the hopes too, showing a vision of tomorrow while not forgetting the now and the challenges of today and the days ahead. Truly a great speech, delivered with style, humility, grandeur and vision, wanting to travel with voters, leading, but always together.
Not for nothing, Julianna can speak a word or three too. Well done.
All that said, and Pritzker was outstanding, Stratton was exceptional…
Speech of the night was Kennedy’s
That was the Kennedy I waited for, and wondered why Chris never let that Kennedy firebrand be the discussion in this race. Kennedy was funny, thoughtful, worked with the crowd, riffed with charm when the words needed weight, showed resolve to where Dems need to go… and be.
It takes zero away from what I feel was Pritzker making his argument better than anyone can, but Kennedy finding his stride in concession, that’s the speech of the night.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:18 am
Willy, do you think that the JB Team’s seeming lack of quick responses to Bruce’s attacks during the primary were fumble’s on their part, or part of his overall strategy to hold democrats together?
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:35 am
JB spent over $1,243 per vote yesterday.
How will he top that in November, handout big screen TV’s on Michigan Avenue?
Comment by Soapbox Derby Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:38 am
===… do you think that the JB Team’s seeming lack of quick responses to Bruce’s attacks during the primary were fumble’s on their part, or part of his overall strategy to hold democrats together?===
For me, probably a lil bit of both.
Where they dropped the ball, (yet won with 45%+ in a three way Primary) was allowing the negatives to pile on to a point of Pritzker being himself underwater. The strategy to go after the person you want to replace to make your own argument and keep the attacks on you at bay, I feel, just me, was a fumble or a mistake.
The other is, heck, you $34 million on media, run your own playboook, and clean up with a ground game, “one election at time” vision, that seemingly was the game plan and not responding as quick was more of a distraction type reaction to their tasks at hand.
Little bit of both.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:42 am
–How will he top that in November, handout big screen TV’s on Michigan Avenue?–
If that were kosher, Rauner would have done it already.
Tim Schneider was on the TV box last night complaining about Pritzker’s big money in politics. You can’t make that stuff up.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:56 am
“JB spent over $1,243 per vote yesterday.”
No he didn’t. ICPR just put out an analysis this morning. He spent $124/vote. Rauner spent “an astonishing $215.”
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 8:57 am
JB….what a joke…..an embarrassment for the Democratic party. Wish Kennedy had campaigned like he spoke last night…..sad day for Illinois. Really no one to vote for in November. And for JB to say he is for the common man is totally ludicrous. When have the Democrats or the Republicans been for the common man…..
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 9:34 am
I was pleasantly surprised to see Kennedy so quickly recommend unity. I thought it would (understandably) take him a few days.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 10:02 am
Kennedy–not sure what speech I was watching. I didn’t see it all, but the parts I saw he was mostly reading his speech. Not a lot of heart in it.
Comment by Molly Maguire Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 11:49 am
JB’s acceptance speech was inclusive, inspirational and uplifting. Rauner’s acceptance speech was just drab in comparison.
Comment by LakeCountyGuy Wednesday, Mar 21, 18 @ 12:14 pm
I never vote in primary elections because I pick and choose between candidates from all parties. I should live long enough to see one primary ballot where all candidates for all races are listed with a D,I,R is noted at end of name so folks like me could have true freedom to vote each individual candidate as one so chooses regardless of party affiliation. If I like a candidate, I should be free to vote for them without labels whether male, female, or their race, or their political party.
Comment by cc Thursday, Mar 22, 18 @ 12:54 am