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* UPDATED x1 - Rauner responds * New threat to Illinois farmers as China imposes soybean tariff

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* Local newspapers throughout the country are already reeling from the president’s steep tariff on Canadian newsprint. Illinois is the fourth-ranked hog producer in the country, so China’s recent retaliatory 25 percent tariff on pork will definitely sting. China’s new 15 percent tariff on ethanol will hurt this state because we’re the 3rd highest producer (not to mention the corn farmers). Illinois is the number one soybean producer in America, so today’s development is not good news, either…

China has taken aim at America’s rural heartland as the top buyer of U.S. soybeans said it would restrict imports.

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday said it plans to impose 25 percent duties on the commodity in addition to other U.S. agricultural produce including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, tobacco and beef. They’re among 106 products ranging from aircraft to chemicals targeted by Beijing in retaliation for proposed American duties on its high-tech goods. […]

China is the world’s biggest importer of soybeans and America’s largest buyer in trade worth $14 billion last year. That figure had been set to grow after purchases climbed to a record as large-scale livestock farming expands amid a shortage of protein-rich feed grains.

Soybeans led a tumble in agricultural prices, with the futures for May delivery dropping as much as 5.3 percent to $9.835 a bushel, the most since July 2016 for the most-active contract. The daily volume traded on the Chicago Board of Trade was more than seven times the 100-day average. Corn and cotton also declined.

According to the Tribune, one out of every three soybeans grown in America is exported to China.

* From Sen. Dick Durbin…

“Illinois’ farmers now join DACA recipients as the latest victims of President Trump’s temper. Illinois is our nation’s largest producer of soybeans, and a top producer of pork, and will feel China’s retaliation to threats of a trade war more than most. America cannot move forward in a blizzard of tweets and wild threats from this President.”

I’ve asked the governor’s office for a response. I’ll let you know if I hear back.

* Related…

* Illinois pork farmer on Chinese tariffs: ‘Our worst fears seem to be coming true’

*** UPDATE *** Rachel Bold in the governor’s office…

This escalation of new tariffs by the Chinese will hurt both Illinois farmers and the burgeoning Chinese middle class, which is fed by our family farms. Unfair Chinese trade practices, including intellectual property theft, state subsidies, and government-supported espionage, are harmful and unfair to America. A stable trade relationship with China is critical to our economic growth, but this behavior is improper and hurts American businesses.

The Governor is committed to free and open trade, and we know our Illinois farmers, manufacturers and businesses can outcompete anybody. We’re the best growers and builders in the world. Trade is a Federal policy issue with specific oversight by the United States Senate. We have to be hopeful the White House and U.S. Senators can collaborate on constructive trade policy that supports Illinois exporters while also addressing unfair trade practices by the Chinese.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:23 am

Comments

Karma

Comment by DeseDemDose Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:26 am
Today the projected value of the nations soybean crop lost $1.5 billion or so in value. China is a big deal but the blow would be close to the same if NAFTA falls apart.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:32 am
So Sen Durbin. Its ok for China to steal our intellectual property, manipulate currency, deny car imports w/o excessive tarriffs and demand co-ownersip of US companies wanting to do business in China. You Senator are one of the reasons we have gotten to this point.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:32 am
Hurting the very people that voted for you, well done President.

I wonder if the farmers will still love Trump in 3 years?

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:35 am
The Governor is in charge. Why doesn’t he do or say something to the President?

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:35 am
Winning!

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:35 am
I feel like every one of these articles should include the question “whom did you (your organization) support in the 2016 election?”

Comment by Former Downstater Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:37 am
A good reason to vote out Roskam and Bost, and maybe even Hultgren, Kinzinger and Davis if the stars are right. The guy they told IL to vote for is now actively helping tank our state economy.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:38 am
Don’t worry the Trump cult members will just call this fake news as they bow down and worship at their leader’s feet.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:38 am
====* Illinois pork farmer on Chinese tariffs: ‘Our worst fears seem to be coming true===
These folks were talking about the potential tariffs even before they were announced. I was listening to the local news on the way back from Springfield to Chicago and it was a couple of days before Trump even started tweeting about the tariffs that they were worried about it happening.

Comment by Been There Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:39 am
Too bad Rauner didn’t lock down any pork, bean or corn deals on that excellent taxpayer-funded vacation he took to China and Japan.

That’s kind of what “trade missions” are supposed to do. You know, advance trade.

Not to worry. I’m sure the Trump administration has a sober, well-thought out end-game to this trade war they’ve initiated. All consequences to their actions have been weighed carefully.

It’s not like they’re “unreliable, unprepared and unstable,” like Durbin told Mark Brown.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:39 am
I could be wrong, but I think Iowa and Illinois seems to always run Number 1 and 2 when it comes to pork production. This could really hammer both states.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:39 am
If you think these tariffs are permanent, then you are seeing this as a game of checkers rather than chess.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:40 am
Rauner’s base is cheering all of this on, why would he speak out against it?

Comment by Doofman Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:42 am
I have to wonder how many of those typically and reliably Republican farmers are having second thoughts about voting to MAGA and continue returning Shimkus, Bost, Davis etal to Congress.

Comment by illini Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:43 am
No big deal. A man whose name Rauner will not mention has stated “Trade wars are easy to win.”

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:45 am
So, FLyover country is important economically now? Something important actually does happen here? Who knew, coasties? snark

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:46 am
==If you think these tariffs are permanent==
They don’t have to be permanent to do damage. See a history book. Look up Smoot-hawley Tariff, Great Depression

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:47 am
China has been turning to South America for years, and this trade war might just be the major opening they’ve been looking for. T’s Team was totally clueless in this. Team Rauner will just play the deaf, dumb, and blind game with “broken” and “frustrated” thrown in for good measure.

Nicaragua Canal Idea Not Totally Dead- https://tinyurl.com/y7y3h2vq

China Buying Soybeans From Brazil-
https://tinyurl.com/y8uvfmaf

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:48 am
$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year. Free trade. Yeah. About time somebody is attempting to do something.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:49 am
“I never thought the leopards would eat my face!” said the people who voted for the Leopards Eating People’s Faces Party.

Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:50 am
–If you think these tariffs are permanent, then you are seeing this as a game of checkers rather than chess.–

Trump the Chess Master? Every move, calculated three ahead?

He hides it well. Your informed insight is appreciated.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:51 am
==About time someone is attempting to do something.==
There are other things to do to boost exports and encourage the Chinese and others to build their factories here. I.B.E.W. even got a Chinese manufacturer to build a rail car factory here on the South side of Chicago. We could do more of the same. But tariffs alway bring. retaliation, so that is really the dumbest tool in the tool box.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:58 am
Downstate - If you think these tariffs are permanent, then you are seeing this as a game of checkers rather than chess.

And if you think that Trump even knows how to play checkers much less chess on the world stage, I feel kind of sorry for you.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 11:58 am
@11:58 was me.

Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:00 pm
It’s still a negotiation with a country with a billion mouths to feed. Calm down Dick. People gotta eat. Your shrill is noted. Now go somewhere and talk to someone who cares about your rants.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:06 pm
-$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year. Free trade. Yeah. About time somebody is attempting to do something.-
“In 2017, the value of Chinese goods imported to the United States exceeded American goods exports to China by roughly $375 billion. Over that same period, the United States actually ran a $38.5 billion surplus on services trade with China.”
Tariffs help a select few and hurt everyone else.

Comment by ste_with a v_en Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:06 pm
President Spanky is a profoundly impetuous and ignorant man. He never considers future implications, only what feels good today.

Comment by Turn it up Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:07 pm
==@11:58 was me.==

And here you were safe for two minutes.

No tariffs on either side have been imposed as of yet. In this case, it’s Chinese Checkers. They need Soy Beans. Lots of them. It’ll work out.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:09 pm
Tariffs always bring retaliation. Yes they do..it’s about time we retaliated. Do you folks understand what China has been doing for the last two decades?

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:10 pm
==$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year.==

Please explain why you believe this is inherently bad.

I have a trade deficit with my grocery store because they provide me items at a lower price than if I grew or sourced them myself. This allows me to focus my saved time and dollars on personal investments with a higher ROI.

Comment by supplied_demand Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:11 pm
375-38=337. Sounds fair to me.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:12 pm
This is the first issue I am with Trump on The Chinese just tariffed half our exports to them and out of our 15 trillion economy this is nothing. Soybeans like oil is really a global market so they buy up Brazil then others buy ours.They have been out of our pork market all this year anyway. There has been massive pork over production. Perhaps Rod could try to sell some in India.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:13 pm
–About time somebody is attempting to do something.–

Yeah, I remember you saying just those words about the March for Our Lives kids.

You’ve got a history here. You’re all about China steel imports, although they make up only 2.9% of the steel coming into this country (Trump was a big buyer when he was fronting buildings, if you’ll recall).

Make sure you’re honest with your farmer friends (if you have any) about your sense of entitlement and why their income should be whacked to support it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-factbox/factbox-top-steel-exporters-to-the-united-states-idUSKCN1GE10I

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:13 pm
—I’ve asked the governor’s office for a response. I’ll let you know if I hear back.—

If such a response requires an answer that can’t blame Madigan or mentioning Trump’s name, I don’t anticipate any response from the governor.

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:13 pm
I am all for free trade if its fair trade.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:17 pm
On a similar note. I wonder how much a bushel of beans/corn reflects the RFS.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:19 pm
@a guy

Yes there are mouths to feed and Brazil will gladly feed them, Thanks ADM

Comment by Rational thought Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:21 pm
–It’s still a negotiation with a country with a billion mouths to feed. Calm down Dick. People gotta eat.–

Good thing they don’t produce any of their own food, or there aren’t other countries that can pick up the slack.

I kid. They do and there are.

The United States accounts for 13% of China’s food imports. That ain’t a heavy lift for the rest of the world to fill.

https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/16-24_FoodProd

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:22 pm
Don’t worry. Fox news was saying all morning that we have no trade war. No tariffs have been or will be levied. Nothing to see here folks. /S

Comment by Union thug Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:23 pm
===Do you folks understand what China has been doing for the last two decades? ===

Then declare them to be a currency manipulator. It worked before.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:24 pm
- Blue dog dem I am all for free trade if its fair trade.
Too bad that Trump pulled out of the TPP then.

Comment by TominChicago Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:27 pm
They have been a currency manipulator but the yuan is probably about right now. The other option is subsidies like Wisconsin did with Foxxconn.China subsidies utilities and real estate. The Midwestern states need to stop fighting each other.

Comment by Not a Billionaire Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:32 pm
–$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year.–

Bloomberg:

“Simply measuring gross exports and imports, which the trade deficit does, fails to capture this new reality. Take mobile phones. Inside any “Made in China” phone, you’ll find all manner of processors, circuits and parts from South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere — even the U.S. Yet, according to official trade statistics, the entire value of the phone counts as an import from China.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-18/big-u-s-china-trade-deficit-is-smaller-than-it-appears

Comment by King Louis XVI Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:34 pm
==$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year.==

==Please explain why you believe this is inherently bad.==
Prison labor, poisoned air, poisoned water, predatory pricing….
Oh wait -
Those aren’t necessarily bad things if you’re a “values” oriented conservative.

Comment by Excessively Blocked Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:37 pm
The best way to compete against China is to compete against China: Pass trade agreements with other countries so American businesses have new markets to export to. It’s a shame, but no surprise, that Trump nixed TPP, which would have done just that.

Protectionism failed in 1930; there’s no reason to see why it’d be successful in a far more globalized 2018.

Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:45 pm
TomInChicago. W/o s.korea and china, TPP, was a toothless tiger.

Rich. What worked before?

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 12:45 pm
==W/o s.korea and china, TPP, was a toothless tiger.==

The point of TPP was to directly counter encroaching Chinese influence in neighboring economies.

We ratified a free trade agreement with South Korea in 2011.

Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:09 pm
== there aren’t other countries that can pick up the slack.==

Let them give it a try. 13% of a billion people require a stable supply. They’re not buying them to be nice. Their greatest Achilles heal is their inadequate agricultural ability. Cripes, even they admit it out loud.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:09 pm
Commerce Sec. Ross gave a pretty good interview on CNBC this morning if anybody has the time and is interested in further examining the big picture issues with respect to China and tariffs.

https://youtu.be/nIquJ7HT9jY

Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:10 pm
==Yes there are mouths to feed and Brazil will gladly feed them==

A billion mouths to feed…Brazil can’t and won’t. Or they’d already be doing so. When it comes to food, folks kinda prefer stable suppliers, with stable governments. Aren’t many juntas in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska or Kansas.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:13 pm
If it looks, like a trade war, acts like a trade war, and walks like a trade war, it’s a trade war.

Comment by anon2 Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:16 pm
Tkmh. Hows that trade agreement working out?

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:24 pm
@A Guy. Brazil is feeding the world. They are the largest supplier of beans to China with millions and millions of hectars to turn into row crop production. They have taken a bunch of market share from the US grower and will continue too.

Considering the Brazilians can pretty much grow two crops for every one crop in Illinois things are not tilting our way right now.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:27 pm
Blue dog

Make sure you go tell your farmer friends how you feel.

You apparently would like to make trade policy like Donald Trump. With a twitter rant and with a complete lack of any understanding of how trade works.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:33 pm
The tariff on US auto’s exported to Germany is 4 times the tariff that US imposes on autos imported from Germany.

The tariff that China imposes on US made autos nearly doubles the price of the car in that country.

Does this sound like we are currently competing on a level playing field? Are you okay with this discrepancy?

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:37 pm
–Let them give it a try. 13% of a billion people require a stable supply.–

What are you talking about, “13% of a billion people?” Geez, at least make an effort to read and understand before “responding.”

Here it is again: 13% of China’s food imports come from the United States.

Now follow closely: That means 87% of China’s food imports come from countries other than the United States. Those many other countries are the ones that can make up the 13%.

Here’s the link again.

https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/16-24_FoodProd

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:38 pm
==Tkmh. Hows that trade agreement working out?==

Assuming President Trump doesn’t rip it up as he’s been threatening to, I’d say pretty well.

American farmers, including many Illinoisans, can export their beef, dairy and corn to a country with 50 million people with fewer tariffs (none for corn). South Korean companies are opening factories in America (DAE plant in Murray, Kentucky) and sending us cheaper imports.

So yeah, pretty well for Illinois and the US as a whole.

Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:41 pm
The US produces over 100 million metric tonnes of soybeans a year. Prices in the US are mainly driven by biodiesel demand. China imports over 90 million metric tonnes of soybeans a year to use in making hog feed to support their pork industry. Brazil’s total production is a bit over 80 million metric tonnes with Argentina following with about 50 mmt, however drought conditions in Argentina put that number in jeopardy. After Argentina, the amounts produced by the rest of the top ten falls off significantly. China produces only 12 mmt and that goes towards food for its citizens. China may be shooting itself in the foot over this one as there aren’t enough soybeans elsewhere to meet that demand. I’m going out on a limb here and say that the increased demand for the rest of the worlds soybeans could drive the price of soybeans up. That is unless China somehow figures out how to make high quality hog feed with out using soybean meal.

Comment by Former Hillrod Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:41 pm
Doesn’t Mike Madigan have something to do with this, since tariffs are essentially a tax?

Comment by Mike Cirrincione Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:46 pm
==When it comes to food, folks kinda prefer stable suppliers, with stable governments.==

Stability would be the opposite of what we are showing the world right now in regards to trade. It doesn’t really matter if there are juntas in the Midwest as they are subject to the policies of Federal government and those are currently erratic.

Comment by supplied_demand Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:52 pm
==Does this sound like we are currently competing on a level playing field? Are you okay with this discrepancy?==

The answer to this discrepancy isn’t to tax American consumers of foreign cars, but to negotiate and ratify TTIP, the pending US-EU free trade agreement. Trump’s bellicose approach is disastrous.

It bears repeating: The answer to tariffs isn’t protectionism, it’s free trade.

Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:52 pm
@Former - Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Brazil is the world largest producer of soybeans.

USDA has Brazil at north of a 113 MMT of soy this year. Argentina is lagging with a drought but they have solid stocks on hand and will be selling them throughout this marketing year. The US has 21% more beans in storage right now than it did last year. World stocks are exceptionally strong now too.

The price of beans are NOT driven by biodiesel demand. That’s silly. The soy complex, whole beans, meal and oil (for cooking) is what helps drive the market.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:55 pm
it took florida governor rick scott 3 days to get the idea of oil rigs off the coast of florida rescinded. granted, this is action on the part of another country, but china has said it is willing to negotiate on the subject. but we do know that trump’s administration is willing to heed the calls of republican governors up for election this year. you’d think rauner ought to be able to get this reversed quickly…

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 1:56 pm
Sounds like a sneaky tax increase to me.

Comment by a drop in Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:11 pm
Dem. I do.

In regards to trade. I understand free/fair trade. I understand the rights to intellectual properties. And I
understAnd currency controls. I bet if another president,not named Trump, did this, you would be singing its praises.

Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:22 pm
Give the Chinese credit: they’ve picked out the counties that voted, oftentimes by margins of 2 or 3 to 1 for the candidate who promised “So Much Winning!” from a trade war.

China’s giving them the trade war they wanted, and their bank accounts will feel it.

I am a farmer’s daughter, and I am not sympathetic in any way.

Actions have consequences, and China’s only too happy to deliver them.

Comment by Lynn S. Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:24 pm
“Commerce Sec. Ross gave a pretty good interview on CNBC… examining the big picture issues with respect to China and tariffs.”

==Please explain why you believe [a trade deficit] is inherently bad.==

Secretary of Commerce Ross said we have had a problem with trade deficits for a long time and this president will fix the problem. Some problem. The United States has been running a trade deficit for over forty years. In the fourth quarter of 1977 the inflation adjusted net-worth of US households was about $27,850 billion and in the fourth quarter of 2017 it was $98,745 billion(Fed US Bank of St. Louis data). We are over 250% richer now than we were 40 years ago when there was 100 million fewer of us. The reason we have a trade deficit is because we are rich and growing. We buy all the stuff we make and can still buy more stuff from abroad.

Comment by CapnCrunch Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:34 pm
– I bet if another president,not named Trump, did this, you would be singing its praises.–

About time you got to the Chronic Victim Whine. Just lead with that next time, you won’t tire yourself out chasing your tail.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:38 pm
Dick Durbin. I remember him, nice to hear from you again. Don’t be such a stranger.

Comment by jimk849 Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:48 pm
=In regards to trade. I understand free/fair trade. I understand the rights to intellectual properties.=

Weren’t you calling for tariffs on Chinese steel a couple of weeks ago even though we import more steel from 9 other countries? You might want to study up a bit more on the topic.

Applying tariffs to products and/or countries simply because it resonates with the uniformed is pure recklessness. And I would say that regardless of whether or not it was done by Trump.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:56 pm
@Cool Papa Bell

US is still the leading producer of Soybeans last season a little over 117 MMT, this year forecasted anywhere from 119 MMT to 122 MMT

Comment by Mr. Bean Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 2:56 pm
—-Stability would be the opposite of what we are showing the world right now.

Couldn’t disagree more. Its as if Saudi Arabia is channeling the US State Department. The “experts” said that Trump was lighting a powderkeg to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The “experts” were wrong. In fact, the Palestinian people are realizing that their allies (and their financial support) is dwindling rapidly. ISIS is on equally shaky footing.

Not hearing much saber rattling of late. North Korea is now negotiating directly with South Korea.

China responded to the tariffs with their own tariffs, but immediately opened up negotiations on trade matters. An escalating war on trade doesn’t coincide with instant trade negotiations.

Here’s a suggestion, in general - don’t get your news from TV (CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc.) READ a cross section of news sources - Wall Street Journal, NY Times, The Economist, etc.

I find the dissemination of the actual news is much easier to understand when it’s not being presented in an alarming/confrontational manner.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:02 pm
Cool papa
According to the USDA, Brazil is projected to produce 114 million metric tonnes of soybeans in 2018 and the US is projected to produce almost 120 mmt. Both of which will offset Argentina’s drought reduced production. We are still number one.

Comment by Former Hillrod Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:12 pm
@Former and Bean - Glad Former found out that Brazil doesn’t grow 80 MMT of beans anymore.

The jump in US production is in part because of a rapid two year expansion in overall bean acres. The US is doing all it can to keep Brazil at bay but add in Argentina’s numbers - give or take 40 MMT and its clear the US will never catch up in production to those two combined. Brazil is a year or two away from always being bigger than the US and many say their crop this year will be close to 118 MMT.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:37 pm
@Former and Bean - Glad Former found out that Brazil doesn’t grow 80 MMT of beans anymore.

The jump in US production is in part because of a rapid two year expansion in overall bean acres. The US is doing all it can to keep Brazil at bay but add in Argentina’s numbers - give or take 40 MMT and its clear the US will never catch up in production to those two combined. Brazil is a year or two away from always being bigger than the US and many say their crop this year will be close to 118 MMT.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:37 pm
It still works out for those who the GOP are courting, the big farmers who can weather the tariffs will use this to gobble up the few remaining small(er) farms.

Comment by CharlieKratos Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:44 pm
Cool Papa,

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:46 pm
Cool Papa,
Sorry for the double post here.
I don’t understand the language of “keeping Brazil at bay”. I assume that Brazil production (up or down) is more a factor of price than anything else the US might do. I presume that Brazil will produce as many soybeans as they can, irrespective of what the US might or might not do. Like the US farmer, they might switch between crops, but they won’t let their land lay idle.

Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:49 pm
Just Remember What Trump Said? “Only I Can Fix This”.. LOL.

Comment by Shake Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 3:52 pm
Instead of asking the Gov for a comment, ask Raymond Poe as the leader of Agriculture. (You’ll get a more honest and meaningful answer anyway.)

Comment by Just a thought Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:00 pm
Just a turn of a phrase I suppose about keeping the US as the #1 producer. Maybe it just didn’t land right.

And the greatest factor in production generally is the weather. Outside of recent gains to US soybean acres land swings to a particular crop stay fairly steady.

No one is building production to be #1 at anything, right? Brazil’s production increases are tied to huge amounts of arable still out of ag production. Some numbers say they have 400 million acres (USDA figure) still to open up if they want. Brazil wants to produce because its’ good business to do so. And so sure if the price is right then buy land or bring land into production.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:02 pm
==$375 billion. Our trade deficit with China last year.==

Which just means that we buy more from them than they do from us. Nothing nefarious about that. And if we want to change it, seems to me that the conservative way to do that would be to start producing more products they want to buy.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:20 pm
==I bet if another president,not named Trump, did this, you would be singing its praises.==

Stop being a victim. I don’t care who is doing it. Trade wars are never a good thing.

Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:26 pm
===Considering the Brazilians can pretty much grow two crops for every one crop in Illinois===

Silly me. I thought we were talking about the entire US, and not just Illinois with regard to tariffs. Hmmm.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:40 pm
What we’re seeing is high stakes negotiation. Trade War can’t really occur until tariffs are imposed, right? They haven’t. We’re not in a trade war. Will we be? We’ll see, but I doubt it.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 4:48 pm
As I read through this, I’m left with the feeling that I’m the only one who listens to the Farm Report Monday-Friday, 2:06 p.m., Illinois Public Media.

They have been talking for at least 6 months on how commodity prices (wheat, corn, beans) are falling because the entire world has a surplus of commodities right now.

I don’t know how far back the Farm Reports are archived, but you might want to listen to them before you declare the Chinese stupid.

Comment by Lynn S. Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 5:02 pm
Some farmers voted for Trump? I would revise this statement and say that MOST farmers voted for Trump. Elections have consequences and if farmers haven’t realize that they are about to.

Comment by Katherine Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 5:12 pm
Every week we see know it all panic over something this administration has done, and they are repeatedly exposed as wrong.

After two years of this mindless wailing, and doofus exposures, I’ve learned to not panic.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 5:30 pm
Is this a good time to mention that the Farm Bill’s in trouble as well?

Comment by Graduated College Student Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 8:06 pm
–Every week we see know it all panic over something this administration has done, and they are repeatedly exposed as wrong.–

Doubling of borrowing and deficits are real and on purpose. Usually that sort of Keynesian stimulus is only resorted to in recession.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-proposes-4-4-trillion-budget-for-fiscal-2019-1518455590

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 8:14 pm
Trade wars are never a good thing. No finer words. Let’s ask the Chinese to pretty please play by fair rules. Meanwhile, we dump $350 billion out of country every year so we can get cheap goods at a Dollar General.

For the comments about steel tariffs being insignificant in the U.S. correct. But it establishes the benchmark for global prices.

I am amazed at the comments here talking about free trade. Is it free trade when the USDA provides billion upon billions in subsides for commodities.

Is it free trade when widgets designed and developed in the U.S, are copied, subsidized by theiving nations?

Real conservatives should be outraged by the actions of China. Real progressives should be outraged over the actions of China. But in the end….I get it. Americans are consumed by what’s in their best interests. No long term vision.

Twenty years ago I thought I would be planted before China overtook us as the world power. It’s happening before my eyes. I am sad.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 10:37 pm
–Twenty years ago I thought I would be planted before China overtook us as the world power. It’s happening before my eyes. I am sad.–

Spoiler alert: China’s been a big deal on the world scene for 4,000 years.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 4, 18 @ 10:51 pm
Blue Dog Dem-

The US economy has been evolving into a service-based one since the 1980s. There’s nothing wrong with that. And it’s way too late to turn back that clock.

Comment by Graduated College Student Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 6:09 am
Grad. Then we better sell more services. Sending that much cash annually to China is a recipe for failure.

Comment by Blue dog dem Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 6:55 am
===Grad. Then we better sell more services. Sending that much cash annually to China is a recipe for failure.===

Who says we don’t? Those don’t show up on balance-of-trade metrics.

Comment by Graduated College Student Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 7:24 am
==Americans are consumed by what’s in their best interests==

Yes, because we should all strive towards what’s not in our best interest. What sort of goofy comment is that?

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 8:30 am
=Let’s ask the Chinese to pretty please play by fair rules.=

Trade wars, like any wars, have unintended consequences. And the cheap goods that you lament aren’t just showing up at Dollar General. They line the shelves and shopping carts of all American institutions like Macy’s, Home Depot, and Amazon. Your “cheap China” rhetoric simply shows that you live in a paradigm that’s 30 years old. Economies evolve and jobs change. We should be happy that we no longer need to send workers into coal mines or steel factories in search of a decent wage. The failing of this country is that we didn’t train these workers for the new jobs that emerged when their old ones went away. And now we’re giving them false hope that somehow a trade war will turn back the clock. But punishing the industries that are still viable in this country because you don’t like the irreversible decisions of 30 years ago makes no sense.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 8:42 am
==Trade wars are never a good thing. No finer words. Let’s ask the Chinese to pretty please play by fair rules. Meanwhile, we dump $350 billion out of country every year so we can get cheap goods at a Dollar General.==

Blue Dog seems to come out in favor of taxing the poorest among us by jacking up prices at Dollar General.

Comment by TKMH Thursday, Apr 5, 18 @ 9:06 am