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Never count on your opponent to self-destruct

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Speaking later at the City Club of Chicago, Senate Minority Leader Bill Brady said the most powerful agent for Republican unity will be Pritzker.

“That’s the simple election question,” Brady said. “If you think we can grow our state by raising the tax burden on families and businesses, vote for JB Pritzker. He clearly supports that.”

However, Republicans are taking a big chance if they believe their most powerful force for victory is that the opponent is so distasteful.

Many Democrats assumed the same thing two years ago, when Donald Trump won the White House.

Many Democrats assumed the same thing four years ago, when Bruce Rauner won the governor’s race.

But, yeah, it’s gonna be a variation of “Taxes, Madigan, Taxes, Madigan, Taxes, Madigan, Taxes, Madigan” all the way through November. It’s the best and probably only shot Rauner really has.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:15 am

Comments

Agree. “Trust Me” wouldn’t work for Bruce.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:17 am
Spot on Rich. Spot on. Voters will need a reason to support Rauner. “Taxes, Madigan” is the very best he can do.

Comment by anonymous 2 Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:21 am
They have no other card to play, so might as well say it’s an Ace.

But it is striking that the unifying force for them isn’t Rauner’s positive policy agenda.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:25 am
Translation: “Since he has no accomplishments to speak of (and run up 8+ billion in debt through inaction and divisiveness), Bruce will run as the anti-Pritzker”

Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:28 am
This same message goes for Team Pritzker… relying on Rauner to do himself in is a recipe for disaster on Election Day.

Comment by Concerned Dem Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:29 am
“Brady said the most powerful agent for Republican unity will be Pritzker.”

Well, we finally know why he hasn’t called Ives: Rauner isn’t in charge of Republican unity.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:31 am
By 2014, I don’t think Quinn’s approval rating ever got above 40%.

Rauner ran last time as an outsider against an unpopular incumbent.

It’s a long way to November. But he won’t be able to do that again. At least he won’t be able to sell it to persuadables.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:32 am
Brady is correct, and so is Rich.
The buried treasure is how this could all affect Legislative races whether it gets the Governor back in or not.

Comment by A guy Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:38 am
Pritzker’s complaint that the rich don’t pay their fair share, when he is clearly a tax-dodger himself, doesn’t seem all that powerful to me. I would rather he talk about growing the underlying tax base by creating jobs and improving the state’s economic climate.

Comment by Just Me Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:39 am
The more Rauner blames others, the more impotent he looks. It feeds more into the narrative that Rauner himself created, that he’s not in charge.

Doesn’t this bother conservatives? I thought people are supposed to take responsibility. Isn’t this the case with black and brown people on welfare? The dude was a corporate Chairman. When does the buck stop with him?

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:42 am
== Pritzker’s complaint that the rich don’t pay their fair share, when he is clearly a tax-dodger himself, doesn’t seem all that powerful to me. ==

Maybe JB ain’t the best messenger, but it’s still the right message.

== I would rather he talk about growing the underlying tax base by creating jobs and improving the state’s economic climate. ==

A stable budget, year after year (even with higher taxes) would be better for the business climate that the continuing stalemates, veto overrides, high drama and breathless rhetoric.

Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:43 am
Do you pick the devil you know, or the devil you don’t know? It seems the trend is to pick the devil you don’t know, so congratulations JB. Your prize is to run the worst fiscal state in the Union. To make it easy on you, we’ve provided you with a pension shortfall of $150B, and a state that is losing residents. There’s also a real aversion to tax increases, given the already high tax burden.

Hope you’re up to the challenge.

Comment by SSL Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:45 am
Taxes Madigan is already an old ploy. The Governor has surrounded himself with people who tell him he is right. He doesn’t allow differing opinions. “I have been successful at everything I do.” He has nothing to run on but fear of the other guy. Not a good election strategy.

Comment by Retired Educator Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:47 am
Who says Rauner is interested in “Republican unity” with Ives supporters? Is appeasing them in any way a strategy for winning the general election?

Ives got 340,000 votes. In 2014, 3.6 million voted in the general election. Lot more votes toward the middle then on the right of the GOP.

The primary is over. My guess is you’ll never hear Rauner even mention that he is a Republican, much less try to make nice with Ives voters on their issues.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 9:54 am
==This same message goes for Team Pritzker… relying on Rauner to do himself in is a recipe for disaster on Election Day.==

Yesterday, the complaint was that he wasn’t calling Rauner a failed Governor enough…

…though really, I find your take more persuasive, Democrats simply aren’t as animated by animus alone. But JB actually is talking about an ambitious agenda, so I don’t know that that’s gonna be his problem.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:01 am
People held their nose and voted for Trump because of his policies. What Brady is saying is that it’s Pritzker’s policies thT will rally R’s

Comment by Sue Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:04 am
“I would rather he talk about growing the underlying tax base by creating jobs and improving the state’s economic climate.”

He does. All the time. He spent decades building the tech community so yea, expanding jobs and the economy has been and will continue to be a major focus.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:13 am
Rauner has had 4 years to work with, what is Brady talking about? Making rich people and corporations pay a little bit more is not a bad thing.

Comment by Illinois Resident Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:19 am
I know many Democrat voters who will leave the governor choice blank on the ballot if they know a tax hike will impact them. The only chance Rauner has is to hammer the JB Tax over and over.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:29 am
=There’s also a real aversion to tax increases, given the already high tax burden.=
There’s plenty of evidence that proves delaying and ignoring debt contributes to increasing the tax burden, Why isn’t the response to “taxes Madigan” / “debts = cost”.? A simple case could be made to those who don’t care about “critical state services” and “tax the rich” themes could grasp a “pay less interest” or “reduce costs” message.
Relying on the Rauner approach that Illinoisans love their debt seems dubious.

Comment by Held for Moderation Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:31 am
Ives has repeatedly stated that she does not want to talk to Rauner, and a few times stated that she would vote for him but not support him.

Clearly she isn’t ready for unity at this time. In the meantime, the campaign needs to move forward.

Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:34 am
–Ives has repeatedly stated that she does not want to talk to Rauner,–

And Rauner made an easily bustable lie about reaching out. Win-win.

–the campaign needs to move forward.–

Okay. What’s the next obvious lie?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:39 am
Pritzker all the way for me now that he’s secured the Dem nomination. However, I will say that I’m worried that I think Pritzker is uniquely vulnerable to both “Madigan!” and “Taxes!” due to his establishment backing and offshore accounts/toilet-gate. Hopefully Rauners 30% approval rate will tamp down the effectiveness of these attacks.

Comment by Chicago_Downstater Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:53 am
Rauner has to do more than just hammer the “tax” message - he has to make it real. The other state governors “Thanks Mike” ad was good - that’s why Ives copied it. But he needs better - not that same old anonymous guy voice droning on about “now JB Pritzker wants to…” He might also consider an ad on JB’s ego - how Pritzker doesn’t care about republicans/democrats/issues, he just wants to buy the governor’s mansion and immortalize his name. Right or wrong, I get the sense that a lot of voters resent big donors get their names on everything. In other words, Rauner needs to touch an emotional nerve on something, and with a jaded electorate that’s not an easy task.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 10:54 am
Rauner has no desire to welcome Republicans to Raunerism.

Heck, - Louis G Atsaves - tells me all the time, “I’m with Madigan”, because I’m not a Raunerite.

The biggest mistake for Republicans would be the continuing to let this stranger, Rauner, in our house, and destroy Illinois as he has for 3 years.

Rauner knows. Rauner, in his social agenda, is a far left, costal, limousine liberal, with little in common with the GOP.

To top it off? Rauner can’t tell the truth. Ask Leader Radogno, ask Cardinal Cupich…

We met a stranger in our house. The stranger is destroying Illinois. Enough is enough.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 11:15 am
To the post, and Leader Brady,

Leader Brady, who I respect, like I respect Leader Durkin, has a really bad hand, and he knows that.

For me, if the Caucuses could get Rauner’s money, and run away from the failed Rauner, I’d like that a great deal.

If the Caucuses, and I suspect they will, can run against “Madigan” and in some ways, Pritzker, in the micro, that could be the way to stave off heavy losses, not unlike where Clinton won Illinois, but the IL House flipped seats “Red”.

There will be a time “after Rauner”… could be in January, could be in 5 years… but here’s what I know… today..,

Pritzker, in polling is already under water, not polling all that great on his own… and leads Rauner… solidly in double digits… in a possible blue wave election.

Leader Brady needs Rauner, but can’t really carry Rauner, and knows Rauner, sparingly, can carry his caucus.

My hope is the Caucuses will break out, I know I’m with them… and realize… standing alone, together… that might be the only way.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 11:50 am
It could be argued that Rauner has done less damage to the state in the last three years than the D’s did during the (12?) prior years when they had control of the House, Senate, and Governorship. Is that a good reason to re-elect him? It sure is a good reason to NOT give total control back to the D’s. Too bad there is no other viable choice this November - once again, no matter who wins the Governor’s mansion, the people of Illinois lose.

Comment by Stuntman Bob's Brother Tuesday, Apr 10, 18 @ 5:43 pm