Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

I killed way too much time on this silly little project today

Posted in:

Illinois

With 3.1 million registered voters, barely 600,000 voted in the county judicial races, so 19% of the voters picked their judges. Democratic committeemen in the Hispanic 6th subcircuit fared poorly, but the Irish committeemen in the 8th subcircuit did well.

For whatever reason, Russ’ column reminded me of a story that Speaker Madigan told me years ago. I asked him about Ronald Reagan winning the 13th Ward, and Madigan said he ordered his captains to not talk about presidential races at the doors. Voters, he said, like to think that they’re making up their own minds on presidents.

Besides, he said, those captains had judges to elect. And back then, the total votes cast for the top of the ticket and for the judge(s) at the bottom of the ticket were usually very close in his ward, unlike other wards.

* Countywide circuit court judicial races are more easily compared between wards, so I picked one at random: The Brewer vacancy.

Here is the percentage change from the total votes cast for governor to that Brewer race in a handful of wards with reputations for turning out the vote…

* 13: -14%

* 4: -19%
* 5: -20%
* 11: -21%
* 19: -18%
* 23: -16%
* 41: -19%
* 45: -18%
* 47: -19%

Click here and here to start your own goofy research project that you wish you hadn’t thought of because it took too long to put together and probably won’t get any comments anyway, but that you absolutely had to finish because reasons and you were just doing something to keep yourself busy until the Comcast person arrived to fix your Internet connection.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:25 pm

Comments

===….probably won’t get any comments anyway…===

I thought it too be interesting. It’s really a deep dive numerically into the old school precinct captain. Carry this, don’t worry about that… and see where the numbers price the myth.

Great organizations (measured “great” solely for this purpose, in these parameters) can swing things, and show their effectiveness by their ability to pick and choose races to have maximum impact.

President sides 53-47…. but a state rep wins 83-17… US Senate slides 58-42… and a county board member wins 81-19… or better.

Was there a statistical measure?

I appreciate that effort, Rich, even if it was solely to waste time, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:38 pm
Just promise this will be the next to the last time you do this to yourself. Or at least a time or two before the next to the last…

Comment by A guy Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:42 pm
…And he’s still not here (exclamation point).

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:43 pm
Ah, yes, the infamous rabbit hole. I’ve been down that a few times myself.

Comment by JoanP Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:43 pm
Remember that popular and important are not the same. Judges enjoy tremendous power and seemingly no one cares. To paraphrase, we get the court system we deserve

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:45 pm
I dive in this kind of rabbit hole almost every election. Every election.

Comment by Anonish Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 3:53 pm
===to start your own goofy research project that you wish you hadn’t thought of because it took too long to put together and probably won’t get any comments anyway, but that you absolutely had to finish because reasons and you were just doing something to keep yourself busy until the Comcast person arrived to fix your Internet connection.===

I’m pretty sure that’s how Scott Kennedy started IED. He found a way to monetize his time-wasting curiosity.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:07 pm
Reporting in with my newly completed my goofy research project, looking at whether party slated countywide judicial candidate won in the wards you listed or not. Of the 8 contested races,

4th ward carried 7 of 8.
5th ward carried 5 of 8.
11th ward carried 6 of 8.
13th ward carried 8 of 8.
19th ward carried 5 of 8.
23rd ward carried 5 of 8.
41st ward carried 5 of 8.
45th ward carried 6 of 8.
47th ward carried 6 of 8.

Worst performing candidate only won in two of these wards, 4 and 13. And I suppose in some of these they maybe didn’t carry the slated candidate on purpose.

Comment by TopHatMonocle Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:26 pm
Judicial retention elections are another interesting topic. The retention rate is so high, one wonders why we bother - just call it a lifetime appointment …

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/December-2012-1/The-Year-We-Actually-Threw-The-Bums-Out-Or-At-Least-Some-Of-Them/

Comment by Texas Red Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:26 pm
And he’s still not here…

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:36 pm
===And he’s still not here…===

Send up a flair… fire up the Captiol Fax Signal…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:39 pm
https://gph.is/1YpHz6u

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 4:50 pm
Comcast is the worst for customer service. I really enjoyed the post and find it interesting the notion of avoiding the top of the ticket to focus on the lower races.

Comment by frisbee Wednesday, May 2, 18 @ 5:56 pm