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* She’s right. It’s pretty much all Rauner has, except for the likely “corruption” claims. Taxes, Madigan, Taxes, Madigan, Corruption, Taxes, Corruption, Madigan, Taxes all the way to November…
The numbers don’t look good for Gov. Bruce Rauner’s re-election chances based on enthusiasm among Democratic voters alone. Four years ago, the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries drew 1.3 million voters to Illinois polling places. In March, that number jumped to 2.1 million, driven by Democrats. They’re stoked.
Consider that Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker in a six-way race still collected 597,756 votes. Rauner, in a two-way primary, collected only 372,124. Too early to cue the “Price is Right” loser horn? Bum-bum-ba-buuum. Perhaps.
Rauner has one shot: Convince Illinoisans of both parties that a vote for Pritzker is a vote for higher taxes. Tap into the rebellion that overturned the Cook County soda tax. Remind voters that Springfield cannot be trusted with another blank check. Rauner still can position himself as the only backstop between voters’ wallets and the irresponsible savoir-faire of the General Assembly.
It starts with a fierce campaign against the Democrats’ graduated income tax proposal requiring a constitutional change. Pritzker and House Speaker Michael Madigan are positioning the tax as a fairness issue. Stick it to the rich guys (and never mind the ambidexterity of their positions, being two rich guys).
The rest of the column is a bit on the hyperbolic side, but that part is right.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 2:47 pm
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Well, he was going to go on and on about taxes, anyway. He has been, already, every day. So, great advice.
But it’s too early and presumptuous to say what “the only chance is.” Events and revelations can always play a hand.
First things first: keep McCann off the ballot. Every few percentage points is precious.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 2:57 pm
It’s telling that Hurricane Kristen’s column doesn’t once include the word Trump. He’ll be the issue most on voters minds come November when theyre looking to punish his enablers, and Rauner has no answer for that.
Comment by One hand //ing Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 2:58 pm
“Rauner still can position himself as the only backstop between voters’ wallets and the irresponsible savoir-faire of the General Assembly.”
That narrative only works if the alternative is more appealing to voters and, so far, Rauner has done little to make that case.
Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:00 pm
So the Trib ed board is in Camp Rauner. Good to know.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:02 pm
I won’t pretend that the GA has always been the most responsible steward of peoples’ taxes, but it really bothers me when people act like the budget is just frittered away on useless stuff. The budget crisis showed us exactly who gets hit when there isn’t enough money: higher ed, social services for the most in need, schools, public safety, hospitals, the list goes on.
I wish McQueary and others would be honest about what funding or not funding the state government actually means. If you don’t think it’s worth it fund those things, at least be up front about it.
Comment by Actual Red Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:03 pm
He has zero chance. 9% loss. At best.
Comment by BlueDogDem Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:04 pm
“Stick it to the rich guys (and never mind the ambidexterity of their positions, being two rich guys).”
I don’t get why this is an effective attack at all. A policy does what it does. FDR came from immense wealth and hiked the marginal income tax rate to almost 100 percent at the top. If she’s got plans for policies that would hit Pritzker and Madigan’s forms of wealth (eg property tax machinations) more directly, I’m happy to hear them out.
If it was Biss proposing this, the response would be “well of course he wants to tax the rich, he’s not and he hates them.” Not really sure that a columnist proposing the best way to hone attacks is a great use of time. I trust Rauner’s team will handle that and make sure we all hear it.
Comment by whetstone Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:05 pm
“Tap into the rebellion that overturned the Cook County soda tax.”
How’d that work out for Fritchey and Boykin.
Comment by anon Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:06 pm
I agree that the tax issue is a powerful negative. However, Illinoisans apparently support progressive taxation, so a well-funded message, delivered with some humility by Pritzker (about time we super-rich pay our fair share), could work.
If Rauner was responsible and reasonable, not sabotaging the budget process—sending debt skyrocketing, decimating social services, slashing higher ed, etc.—his position would be greatly strengthened. But the devastating effect of a massive revenue shortage could make Pritzker’s argument easier.
Haven’t we learned anything from the last two election cycles, especially with Trump, when it comes to saying prematurely who will win the election? We don’t know what the future brings. Polls may be inaccurate. Candidates need to work very hard for votes and not be afflicted by Clintonitis, the arrogant complacency of taking traditional voters for granted and not campaigning hard.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:14 pm
Oh @StatehouseChick… lol
You may be correct (in the above, yep, she’s right) in how Rauner needs to run, “today”, to think he has a chance to win.
Heck, your newspaper might even drop another FBI tape, maybe in September, another in late October… no one knows, even Pritzker doesn’t know what’s out there…
But, what so @StatehouseChick, besides tweets about swim up bars and hurricanes leveling cities, is the idea that another four years of Bruce Rauner is good for Illinois.
The idea that a bipartisan GA had to save Illinois from Rauner’s destruction, with two fiscal years without a full budget, the idea that Illinois needs more Rauner just encapsulates @StatehouseChick… you know, a perfect storm of destruction, then rebuild?
While she’s right with what Rich grabbed, and no one can predict what the Trib will drop, couple things to keep in mind;
1) Rauner is badly underwater himself with years of making it about Madigan and taxes.
2) Rauner has successfully gotten Pritzker underwater.
3) With Pritzker already under water, Rauner is polling behind, by double digits to Pritzker. The dragging down Pritzker, while still a smart move, isn’t helping Rauner with voters.
*Enter Brewskis With Bruce*
My point?
That @StatehouseChick, who’s twitter I can’t get enough of, is smart in this thinking, but Rauner needs to *seem* likable at some point, otherwise, Rauner continues to be the entity we know, ave we “no likey”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:16 pm
==FDR came from immense wealth and hiked the marginal income tax rate to almost 100 percent at the top. ==
He also filed his 1936 return computing his tax at pre-1936 rates on his presidential salary on the grounds that applying the increased rates he helped enact to his salary would “diminish” his salary in violation of the constitution.
Comment by Whatever Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:17 pm
Rauner could spend every dime he has to win re election, but he has absolutely no chance of winning.
Comment by Generic Drone Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:25 pm
Rauner has virtually no chance of winning, but here’s how he can win. Uh, ok.
Comment by Moby Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:25 pm
Perhaps Rauner’s argument will prevail because of the sheer hypocrisy of JB who has taken extraordinary measures to avoid paying his fair share but has the gall to call himself a progressive and Mike Madigan who makes 7 figures a year by facilitating helping his clients property taxes being less progressive
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:31 pm
== “Rauner still can position himself as the only backstop between voters’ wallets and the irresponsible savoir-faire of the General Assembly.”
The problem is Rauner has:
a) failed every campaign promise
b) been more incompetent than the GA
c) has almost no accomplishments to run on
He couldn’t even stop the last income tax increase … so how is he going to stop the progressive income tax?
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Rich, if that’s all he has, he has nothing. With the huge debt facing the State, and the fact that the State is under-resourced in all major operational and grant categories, higher taxes are inevitable. The only question is who pays. I think the billionaire who puts it on the line and says that rich people like him are going to have to pay more is going to do better than the failed Governor.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Rauner will indeed run with the fear of taxation, no doubt, but let’s not forget that he’s a fan of ad hominem attacks as well, including attacks that are often hypocritical. That will be his two-pronged approach. Let’s hope voters do not fall for it.
Comment by Front Porch in Edwardsville Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:41 pm
===Perhaps Rauner’s argument will prevail because of the sheer hypocrisy of JB who has taken extraordinary measures to avoid paying his fair share but has the gall to call himself a progressive and Mike Madigan who makes 7 figures a year by facilitating helping his clients property taxes being less progressive===
Right “now”, that thinking, Rauner trailing by double digits, polling worse that Trump in a state Trump lost by 16 points… in a possible blue wave…
I’d try to at least push more of the “Brewskis with Bruce”… the likability factor will be needed at some point. They need to make Bruce a guy that people can like again.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:50 pm
– irresponsible savoir-faire of the General Assembly.”–
What does that mean, anyway, when those words are put in that order?
Websters:
savoir-faire
: capacity for appropriate action; especially : a polished sureness in social behavior
“I admire her sophistication and savoir faire.”
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 3:52 pm
==not be afflicted by Clintonitis, the arrogant complacency of taking traditional voters for granted and not campaigning hard.==
Ugh, literally no evidence that this happened. You sure you aren’t just coating your misogyny in false critiques?
Comment by supplied_demand Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 4:08 pm
Katrina - bought and paid for
Comment by MickJ Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 4:17 pm
=Take this analysis from the Illinois Department of Revenue: In tax year 2016, the most recent data available, state income tax filers reporting more than $500,000 in net income represented 1 percent of the total number of filers. But they paid 23 percent of the net total the state collected that year. One percent of Illinois earners accounted for nearly a quarter of state income tax revenue. That’s not a fair share?=
She is correct that it’s his only shot.
Other than that, many of her points are off base. The >500K club she references includes individuals making in excess of 1M, 10M, and theoretically 180 million. Because individual return info is (rightfully so) confidential, it is impossible to accurately articulate the unfairness of the code at all from this point. If people making between 500K and 700K were paying 23 percent of the net total, one could argue that was unjust, by pointing to the number of people in that group, and ballpark an average amount paid by each of them. However, that’s not an accurate interpretation of this statistic. When the range of incomes is infinite, this statistic is misleading and should not be used by people who are serious about making public policy decisions.
=Proponents of a graduated income tax have long characterized it as the solution to Illinois’ structural budget problems. They point to states such as Wisconsin where the top rate hits 7.65 percent. Except there, voters instituted a graduated tax in the early 1900s — not to dig out of debt but to create a more progressive formula on principle. Illinois lawmakers want it today after loading up more than $130 billion in unfunded pension liabilities, $6.4 billion in unpaid bills and structural deficits so profound that the state has the worst credit rating in the nation and became the first in U.S. history to fall to near-junk status.=
Unclear what point she makes here. The fact that Illinois has been taxing its wealthiest individuals at a substantially lower rate than its supposedly low-tax neighbor for more than a century is reason to correct that problem, not continue ignoring it. The fact that we take less revenue from this group than most other states do simultaneously explains (1) why we’re always broke and (2) why middle class people feel (and actually are) squeezed by taxes.
But no, let’s just ignore that our rate is way less than our peer state, force school districts and counties to jack up property taxes, and pretend there’s no connection between the two points. And we can spend 15 more years complaining that the state’s broke and pretending we have no idea why.
Combined with Rauner’s earlier comments about Iowa’s (or Missouri’s?) graduated income tax, that entire part of this debate is slowly, implicitly, and inadvertently admitting the complete fallacy of their position. The question for Illinois is how long we have to wait on them stubbornly clinging to ideology.
Comment by Ramblers Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 5:14 pm
Haven’t read a word of hers since she blocked me on Twitter.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 5:26 pm
Been saying this all year.
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, May 8, 18 @ 8:43 pm
I should add, this column and the ensuing discussions regarding Rauner’s campaign remind me of this:
Lloyd Christmas:
What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me… ending up together?
Mary Swanson:
Not good.
Lloyd Christmas:
Not good like one in a hundred?
Mary Swanson:
I’d say more like one in a million.
Lloyd Christmas:
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
- Dumb & Dumber
Comment by Thoms Paine Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 8:53 am
Master of the political obvious. This is Illinois Spend and tax, place blame in buckets…move on nothing to see here. Neither guy gives you a warm fuzzy feeling (sorry Sam et al) so who ever goes up with campaign ad with the best puppy picture will win.
Comment by theCardinal Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:55 am