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“In a way that is not securely in position and is likely to fall or collapse”

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Illinois

A Chicago-based fiscal watchdog group said Gov. Bruce Rauner’s budget proposal is “precariously balanced” and doesn’t do enough to pay down the state’s remaining backlog of bills.

The Civic Federation’s Institute for Illinois’ Fiscal Sustainability, said in a report released Wednesday that Rauner’s budget plan released in February “is substantially closer to being balanced than his administration’s previous proposals.”

But it concluded Rauner’s plan relies on “aggressive assumptions” that may not come to fruition.

“Illinois residents were able to breathe a sigh of relief following the end of the unprecedented impasse, but the state is far from fiscal stability,” Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the possibility of renewed political stalemate hangs over Springfield and it would be financially reckless to wait until after the upcoming election to start working toward long-term stabilization.”

* Sun-Times…

The civic watchdog’s report says the group “cannot support” Rauner’s recommended budget because it is “only precariously balanced,” citing a projected surplus of $351 million that depends on “various aggressive assumptions” totaling $1.8 billion in savings or additional revenues.

“It is not clear whether these assumptions are backed up by contingency plans,” the report says.

The report says the budget again relies on the selling of the James R. Thompson Center for the third year in a row and on “speculative group health savings.”

The Civic Federation also says it doesn’t support a budget that doesn’t have a plan to eliminate the unpaid bill backlog. The surplus would go towards the bill backlog — which was at $6.88 billion on Tuesday — but it’s “unclear how the State will pay the remaining backlog in future years.”

* Trib…

There are some parts of Rauner’s plan the group supports, but it does not endorse shifting suburban and Downstate teachers’ pension costs to local school districts.

* From the report…

The Civic Federation is supportive of several initiatives in the Governor’s recommended FY2019 budget, including aligning responsibility for payment of current-service pension costs with decision making about workers’ salaries and reducing the State’s role in financing health insurance costs for teachers and university and community college employees and retirees. The Federation also supports the proposal to enact the “consideration model” of pension reform, while not applying any savings until it is certain that the reform is constitutional.

* Crain’s…

The federation also generally sided with mayors in arguing against Rauner’s budget proposal for the second year in a row to grab a portion of the municipal share of state income-tax receipts for his budget, rather than passing it on to cities and villages

More ominously, the federation noted that Illinois “narrowly avoided a (bond) downgrade to junk status” last year.

“Illinois residents were able to breathe a short sigh of relief following the end of the unprecedented impasse,” in which the state went two years without a full, normal budget, federation President Laurence Msall said. “Unfortunately, the possibility of renewed political stalemate hangs over Springfield…Another impasse could squander recent progress.”

Illinois needs a long-term plan for fiscal stability, Msall added. “This proposal does not accomplish that goal.”

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 9:42 am

Comments

–..but it does not endorse shifting suburban and Downstate teachers’ pension costs to local school districts.–

Neither do suburban or Downstate lawmakers — at least not the massive, rapid shift Rauner has proposed — so you can’t bank on that $700 million, either.

Maybe Rauner can propose selling the JRTC three times in one fiscal, and bank that.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 9:49 am
He’s had three years to get it together. Clearly he doesn’t know what he is doing.

Comment by Just Me Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 9:56 am
Even the sycophants at Tronc can’t put lipstick on this pig. Hope Bruce drops a hundred million dollars on his campaign before losing. He’ll never get it. Epic failure.

Comment by Trapped in the 'burbs Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:00 am
“but it does not endorse shifting suburban and Downstate teachers’ pension costs to local school districts”

That’s not what the report said. It said they don’t support shifting the costs to suburban and Downstate districts over four years while shifting the exact same costs to CPS in one.

From the report “the Federation cannot support the Governor’s proposal to shift normal (current year) pension costs to local school districts outside Chicago over four years, while returning full responsibility for normal pension costs to Chicago Public Schools in FY2019…”

Comment by Juice Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:01 am
Rauner wants to pay $300 million in step increases for state workers that he illegally withheld by taking health insurance out of collective bargaining and unilaterally imposing cuts that will save $470 million. That’s blind robbery. A fool would accept this deal from a guy who made $279 million in the two years of his gubernatorial charade.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:14 am
==“is substantially closer to being balanced than his administration’s previous proposals.”==

Faint praise, indeed.

Comment by Whatever Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:17 am
==“is substantially closer to being balanced than his administration’s previous proposals.”==

Yes, he’s using every dime of that tax increase, plus more. Without even paying down the bill backlog.

Now do you see why Rauner vetoed the tax bill so quickly, and told everyone to stay in town to vote on the override?

He could have sat on the tax increase bill for two months, and used the power of his office and campaign fund millions on media to pick off GOP votes.

But he did not.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:29 am
To the Post,

What is compelling about this report, these suggestions, the course of action, is that there is a great deal for many to really dislike, and at the same time enough for that same many to like “enough”.

Political strength to compel and elected bodies to do what is in the best interest of the overall, while being faced with real questions to one’s political leanings and the constituents in the micro (legislators) of districts that may see their own back yard effected “differently” that others will be, or the state as a whole.

It’s this type of discussion, but married with actions after, that needs to get beyond the written word, and to testimony and legislative movement.

The goal would need to be that those “brave” (which is ridiculous to think saving a state, one must be brave) e ought to vote and make tough choices “hang together”, Republican and Democrat, upstate and downstate, urban and rural. Sometimes it’s not a tribal driven politics that will be helpful to get the job done.

My hope is that this taken seriously enough to see that there are really bad ideas, really good ideas, ideas both sides can line with, and as a package that’s how wonky policy becomes the governing needed.

We need to face that this report, like it, don’t like, is a product of where we are “now”, not an indictment of yesterday as much of a blueprint to a tomorrow. Getting caught up in what happened in driving what needs or could be done could poison the neeeded discussions. Let’s find an end game before we caught up in how the past will write today and yesterday ave tomorrow.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:38 am
But hey at least it is balanced sort of kinda ???Like my college kid who thinks he is rich when I send him a check but he has rent food gas to pay for… meh so much left over for beer.

Comment by theCardinal Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:43 am
The only way to balance it, is a big tax increase. See how that will play with angry tax payers, in an election year, and what party will want to sponsor it. Best to blame the other party, for no budget and hope the voter believes it.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:01 am
Paying down our debt would stabilize our fiscal health and help our state improve its bad bond rating, which sits precariously close to junk bond status. Since he’s been Governor, Rauner has never shown any interest in paying down our debt, very puzzling.

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:08 am
Have the watchdogs just given up on criticizing the Governor for proposing a budget that required law changes? Isn’t there a statute that requires the introduced budget to be based on status quo law?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:13 am
–Since he’s been Governor, Rauner has never shown any interest in paying down our debt, very puzzling.–

Not at all, if you look at his private sector track record, and his comments on muni bankruptcy to bust unions.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:28 am
He can’t sell the Thompson Center. That requires compromise, not part of his skill set.

Why don’t Durkin or Brady introduce the Madiar consideration model plan and demand the Democrats support it? If they did, Rauner could sign it and run on the idea that he solved the pension crisis, at least until the Supreme Court rules, which may be after the election. Or he could blame the Democrats for not passing the bill. Getting a ruling on the consideration model would be some kind of progress, even if rejected, we’d know what options remain going forward. Rauner’s been praising that proposal for a year now, what are he and his cohorts waiting for?

Comment by James Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:48 am
@- The Dude Abides - Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:08 am:

===Paying down our debt would stabilize our fiscal health and help our state improve its bad bond rating, which sits precariously close to junk bond status. Since he’s been Governor, Rauner has never shown any interest in paying down our debt, very puzzling.===

Rauner’s buddies in the bond markets make more money on higher interest rate Illinois bonds.

Comment by DuPage Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:35 pm